FanPost

Combine Challenge



The combine is 5 days away.

I often see the following sentiment expressed here.

I trust my own eyes as much if not more than the people putting the stats together.

the stats lie; video tells the truth.

The claim: that people can make a superior assessment of players by watching games than by using statistics.

Ok, well I’ve got a test. Let’s see how good people are at judging athleticism by eye. If it’s true that you really can ‘see’ the differences between players presumably one can ‘see’ athleticism.

We’ve got 6 top defensive players and two key athletic markers: short shuttle and vertical jump (these were chosen because they actually correlate with pass rush success in the NFL). Let’s see how close you can come to guessing actual combine performances.

Here are my guesses.

 

Weight

Short Shuttle

Vertical

Robert Quinn

268

4.30

38

Von Miller

237

4.17

37

Nick Fairley

298

4.50

35

Dequan Bowers

275

4.50

34

Marcel Dareus

307

4.50

34

Cam Jordan

287

4.60

32

Accuracy will be judged on total difference between guesses and actual.  To give both measures equal weight we will take 20x the difference between the short shuttle guess and actual and 1x the vertical (e.g. if short shuttle guess is 4.4 and actual is 4.2, that’s worth 0.2 x 20 = 4, if vertical guess is 36 and actual is 34, that’s worth 36 – 34 = 2 for a total of 6)

Prove how good your ‘eye’ is. Post your predictions in the comments.

Here are some scouting videos in case you haven't seen these players

Robert Quinn #1   

 

Robert Quinn #2

Von Miller   

  

Dequan Bowers #1 

 

Dequan Bowers #2 

Cam Jordan 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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