BTB Writers 2011 NFL Mock Draft Exercise First Round Analysis

BTB Mock Draft

The first round is in the books! We've completed 32 picks for 31 teams and I think we've all gained some appreciation for some of the possible ways this draft could play out. You can follow the jump for a complete listing of the 32 picks in order. Also included is a comparison with some of the leading national big boards. Let's peruse the activity to see what we might be able to glean.

-- Four quarterbacks went off the board in the first round. This means that teams such as Buffalo, Cincinnati, San Francisco and Tennessee are going to be targeting Christian Ponder, Colin Kapernick, Ricky Stanzi, Greg McElroy and Andy Dalton. It all depends on what they see in each prospect, but you'd have to think the Eagles will be using all of their rollover minutes saved during the lockout, fielding all those Kevin Kolb trade offers.

-- Even with slotting Ryan Kerrigan as a linebacker, there were an amazing 10 defensive linemen selected in round one. If the Cowboys plan to acquire a top tier defensive lineman, they will have to make a move in the first two rounds. Conversely, if they are comfortable rolling with Bowen, Hatcher and Igor than there will be a lot of value at other positions being pushed down to them.

-- The first tackle didn't go off the board until pick 19, something I doubt we see come April 28th but you never know. This does clearly show that a trade down could still net one of the top 5 linemen. However, five tackles gone in a relatively light class is a concern. Will the value still be there for them at #40?

Follow the jump for more...

-- New England makes me sick. Things will probably play out EXACTLY like this for them, and then turn around and make another great value pick at 33.  You'd think that the Pats propensity to work the draft would keep them from moving up, but things could happen. Add a receiver like Jon Baldwin or one of the next tier of linemen to a 14-2 team? Even if Mark Ingram comes off the board early, they could snatch Mikel LeShoure at 28. Pick 17 is the perfect position to snare a falling top 12 talent. Grrrr.

-- If the draft did fall this way, Dallas would be in the catbird seat for teams looking to jump Washington and select Cam Newton. Even though I gave Blaine Gabbert to Arizona, I suspect Cam will be the first quarterback off the board and I don't know if someone will jump for Gabbert, or wait for one of the other QBs.

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Drafted By Position:

QB(4): Blaine Gabbert, Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Ryan Mallet

RB(1): Mark Ingram

WR(2): AJ Green, Julio Jones

OT(5): Anthony Castonzo, Derek Sherrod, Gabe Carimi, Nate Solder, Tyron Smith

DT(5): Corey Liuget, Marcel Dareus, Nick Fairley, Phil Taylor, Stephen Paea

DE(4): Cameron Jordan, Da'Quan Bowers, JJ Watt, Muhammad Wilkerson

LB(5): Akeem Ayers, Aldon Smith, Justin Houston, Robert Quinn, Von Miller

CB(4): Brandon Harris, Jimmy Smith, Patrick Peterson, Prince Amukamara

0 Selections: FB, TE, OG, OC, S, K, P

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O.C.C. kept track of the writer's picks, so a value/reach comparison could be made. We'll use Drafttek.com and CBS Sports.com's big board as the measuring stick. I avoided using National Football Post, because as much as I value Wes Bunting's opinion, I can't use a big board that has 3 fullbacks in the top 30.

Pick  Player  Team Writer
CBS DT Value/Reach
1 Nick Fairley 1. Carolina (2-14) Dave 4 5 -4
2 Da'Quan Bowers 2. Denver (4-12) OCC 5 2 -2
3 Patrick Peterson 3. Buffalo (4-12) Rabble 1 1 2
4 Marcell Dareus 4. Cincinnati (4-12) KD 3 4 1
5 Blaine Gabbert 5. Arizona (5-11) KD 10 11 -6
6 Von Miller 6. Cleveland (5-11) Rabble 2 7 2
7 Robert Quinn 7. San Francisco (6-10) OCC 6 10 -1
8 A.J. Green 8. Tennessee (6-10) Dave 7 3 3
9 Prince Amukamara 9. Dallas (6-10) Dave 8 9 1
10 Cameron Newton 10. Washington (6-10) OCC 11 15 -3
11 Aldon Smith 11. Houston (6-10) Rabble 18 14 -5
12 Cameron Jordan 12. Minnesota (6-10) KD 13 8 2
13 Julio Jones 13. Detroit (6-10) KD 9 6 6
14 Justin Houston 14. St. Louis (7-9) Rabble 40 32 -22
15 Ryan Kerrigan 15. Miami (7-9) OCC 20 17 -4
16 Jake Locker 16. Jacksonville (8-8) Dave 23 34 -13
17 J.J. Watt 17. New England (14-2) -- from Oakland Dave 15 13 3
18 Akeem Ayers 18. San Diego (9-7) OCC 32 58 -27
19 Tyron Smith 19. New York Giants (10-6) Rabble 16 16 3
20 Brandon Harris 20. Tampa Bay (10-6) KD 30 20 -5
21 Anthony Castonzo 21. Kansas City (10-6) KD 14 12 8
22 Nate Solder 22. Indianapolis (10-6) Rabble 17 24 2
23 Jimmy Smith 23. Philadelphia (10-6) OCC 25 29 -4
24 Adrian Clayborn 24. New Orleans (11-5) Dave 19 47 -9
25 Ryan Mallett 25. Seattle (7-9) Dave 41 43 -17
26 Derek Sherrod 26. Baltimore (12-4) OCC 31 22 -1
27 Gabe Carimi 27. Atlanta (13-3) Rabble 22 26 3
28 Mark Ingram 28. New England (14-2) KD 12 18 13
29 Stephen Paea 29. Chicago (11-5) KD 34 28 -2
30 Phil Taylor 30. New York Jets (11-5) Rabble 29 64 -17
31 Muhammad Wilkerson 31. Pittsburgh (12-4) OCC 27 25 5
32 Corey Liuget 32. Green Bay (10-6) Dave 31 19 7
             
      KD     16
      Rabble     -33
      OCC     -36
      Dave     -29

Don't forget to stay tuned for the second round of the draft!

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