What REALLY happened to the Cowboys defense in 2010???

by Ben24626 on Mar 20, 2011 9:41 PM CDT

Over the past couple months there has been much debate over the reasons for the Cowboy's defense falling to pieces in 2010. In this fanpost I will attempt to uncover the true reasons for the mess that was the Cowboys D last year.

Note: I use PFF grades somewhat in my analysis, if you do not think these grades accurate, please do not tell me, let's just agree to disagree, no one's making you read this fanpost, thanks.

Possible reasons include:

Inconsistent pass-rush
Poor secondary play
Predictable play-calling
Over estimation of talent on team
Lack of effort due to Wade "the-softie" Phillips
Any number of combinations of all the above reasons

Possible Reason #1: Inconsistent Pass-Rush

Possible reasons for this include: having only two good pass-rushers (Rat and Ware), and having only two good pass-rushers on the field on running downs (same). Frankly, I don't but this theory. My reasoning is that Stephen Bowen graded out well as a pass-rusher on PFF and, he started from week 9 onwards. Also, the Cowboys were the highest graded pass-rushing TEAM in the nfl on PFF in 2010.

Possible Reason #2: Poor Secondary Play

I am of the opinion that this played a large part in the decline of the Cowboys' defense last year. My reasoning is as follows:

a) The secondary was never that good in the first place - in 2009 with a DOMINANT pass-rush, and great run D to make opponents one-dimensional, the pass D was still only average (although the secondary did play pretty well, especially the CB's)

b) The CB's and FS graded out extremely poorly on PFF. This essentially just confirms the obvious - the Cowboys secondary stunk it up in 2010. But, because I think the pass-rush was good, I essentially blame the secondary for playing poorly.

c) IMO, the pass-rush was still good, the CB's were the same guys, so I think a large factor in the CB's stinking up the joint was the unreliable play of FS Alan Ball.

d) Also, something I can't be sure of, but am highly skeptical of, is Jenkins' motivation. his only good year came when his starting spot was challenged by Scandrick. The league is full of guys who pony up in contract years, or when they have to, then mail it in when it doesn't count, I can only hope we don't have one of those guys in Mike Jenkins.

Possible Reason #3: Predictable Play-Calling

TBH, I think this probably was a factor in the lack of pass-rushing productivity from the LB's and DB's, but without more extensive research, I couldn't conclusively say so for sure. All I know is how embarrassing it was watching Keith Brooking get stonewalled by Clinton Portis in slow motion replay.

Possible Reason #4: Over Estimation of Talent on Team

I think this is definitely a factor. I myself, went into the year thinking - "two GREAT OLB's rushing the passer, two pro-bowl corners, and a great run D, we're set". Obviously I was drinking the kool-aid somewhat. Anthony Spencer, in all his years of play, has ONE season of good play (it's commonly said it was only half a season, but PFF has him relatively consistently good throughout the year). The combined pass protection grade of RT's he dominated that year (got a pass-rushing grade of 1 or higher in the game, I can't be sure all of the pressure he got in each game was against the RT, in fact it's highly unlikely, but it's highly likely most of it did) was +28.6. This is excellent and some of the better ones he did this against include Tyson Clabo, Jon Stinchcomb (was actually good back then), and Winston Justice (8th best pass-blocking grade amongst T's that year at +10.2). To think he had "turned the corner" was not an unreasonable presumption, but nonetheless he was decidedly average in 2010. Also, with almost perfect conditions on 2009, Jenkins and Newman were only GOOD, not great, I think they were both extremely overrated heading into last season.

Possible Reason #5: Lack of Effort Due to Wade

I don't think this is true really. If it was would the pass-rush have graded out well on PFF? Would the passing offense have been as prolific with Jon freaking Kitna at the helm? No, I don't buy this at all.

Conclusion

IMO, the run D (which I haven't covered at all due to my belief that it wasn't that bad and that pass D is more important than run D) regressed somewhat in 2010, but I don't think that was the main reason we lost so many games. I think the main reason we lost so many games was because we couldn't defend the pass. I think this was due to extremely poor play at the FS position (which I think affected the play of the CB's somewhat), and poor play by the CB's. I think although our issues defensively are big, they are not MANY, and thus can be solved in one offseason. I think if we sign at least a decent coverage FS, and either sign a good CB and/or draft a CB high, we have legitimate chance of making and winning the superbowl next year. Go Cowboys!

Poll

What the main reason for the downfall of the Cowboys' defense in 2010?

FS and CB

134 votes

CB

8 votes

FS

46 votes

Pass-rush

20 votes

Wade

29 votes

Other (please explain in comments section)

10 votes

247 votes | Poll has closed

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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Comments

here is my theory

with Newman Healthy, the Defense was decent….but once he got hurt, (and considering he played for most of the year that way) Dallas was forced to play Scandrick more.

This Combined with the Epic Fail that was the Alan Ball experiment, was the true Down Fall of the Defense….

However considering that we mostly got killed on First and Second down(FiTaT had an excellent breakdown on this) the Fact that Neither Spears nor Igor could get a any kind of Pass rush didn’t really help matters any.

Oh and not to nit pick but I would like to point out something:

Frankly, I don’t but this theory.

But=Buy?….other than that nice work….well thought out…I’ll give you a rec.

"And one should bear in mind that there is nothing more difficult to execute, nor more dubious of success, nor more dangerous to administer than to introduce a new order to things; for he who introduces it has all those who profit from the old order as his enemies; and he has only lukewarm allies in all those who might profit from the new. This lukewarmness partly stems from fear of their adversaries, who have the law on their side, and partly from the skepticism of men, who do not truly believe in new things unless they have personal experience in them."
Niccolo Machiavelli

by I am Ironman!!! on Mar 20, 2011 10:19 PM CDT reply actions

Thanks

TBH, I don’t agree with the theory that we played Scandrick more, because, well, we didn’t. All year he was the slot CB. I have read FiTaT’s post on WPA on 1st and 2nd down compared to 3rd down and for a time I thought that was the reason for our early down struggles, but WPA can only explain so much, and i stand by the fact that a) Bowen was good at rushing the passer (and I’m sure he didn’t lose that ability on 1st and 2nd down) and b) the Cowboys were the highest graded pass-rushing team on PFF. I think a split of AYPA on 1st and 2nd down compared to 3rd down would be more telling, and TBH probably show little difference. One possible reason I thought’ve for the WPA differential was that teams are more likely to air it out on 1st or 2nd down than 3rd down.

by Ben24626 on Mar 21, 2011 1:10 AM CDT up reply actions

Actually he (Scandrick) Moved outside

whenever Newman was out. He actually started several games (3 to be exact) plus like I said was Newman direct replacement when Newman was out due to injury. In fact in the Giants Game it was Scandrick and McCann on the Outside, because both Newman and Jenkins were out of the game….

by I am Ironman!!! on Mar 21, 2011 2:00 AM CDT up reply actions

Good point

Scandrick did see the field alot. But according to PFF Newman and Jenkins started every game at LCB and RCB respectively. Scandrick played outside for the majority of week 10 vs Giants but otherwise was in the slot as far as I can tell.

by Ben24626 on Mar 21, 2011 2:15 AM CDT up reply actions

NFL.com

Has him starting three Games:

Houston, Green Bay, and Indy…..just saying…..

by I am Ironman!!! on Mar 21, 2011 2:33 AM CDT up reply actions

Nah bro

PFF>NFL.com in terms of stat reliability any day

by Ben24626 on Mar 21, 2011 6:30 AM CDT up reply actions

You're both right...

Newman did start every game, Scandrick also started those games.

From time to time the starting lineup for games is the Nickel or Dime, that means that Scandrick adds one start.

Arnold, almost 5 years of good memories, you'll be missed.
Viva México! Go Cowboys!

by Chandus on Mar 21, 2011 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions

that is what I was thinking.....

by I am Ironman!!! on Mar 21, 2011 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions

My mistake

I thought you were implying Scandrick started at LCB or RCB, not in the slot. Yes, PFF says the same thing.

by Ben24626 on Mar 22, 2011 1:37 AM CDT up reply actions

Newman is going to be injured every year

He always has been, always will be. Count on it again next year.

That’s who he is, that’s the production we get out of him.

The Ohio State Buckeyes are your Sugar Bowl champions... and for the 7th year in a row Michigan still sucks.

by Blue Eyed Devil on Mar 22, 2011 3:55 PM CDT up reply actions

i think what happened occurred in prior drafts

as in really bad picks…i could do some GM bashing now but look at it this way…if you miss that much you can never catch up..and it is really frustrating to say when this draft comes along and the cowboys pick or trade down and im thinkin OMG…not again…and miss at OT again…the 50 cent OL thing has got to stop

by 0k on Mar 20, 2011 10:31 PM CDT reply actions

Hmmm

Yeah, JJ definitely has made his share of mistakes as GM. But in his defence I think he’s improving, with 09’ as a bit of a blip on the map lol. And as for 50 cent line, more like 50 million dollar line. JJ’s dependence on FA for o-linemen has made our o-line very expensive.

by Ben24626 on Mar 21, 2011 1:13 AM CDT up reply actions

I have some research on this that I haven’t posted yet but I think the Cowboys were subject to some big unpredictable plays that went against them. So the defense looked worse than it actually was (athough it was still below average).

OTOH, the defense wasn’t as good as it looked in 2009 … so I don’t know if it was a downfall. I guess that would fall in the over-rating the talent level category.

by Fan in Thick and Thin on Mar 20, 2011 10:36 PM CDT reply actions

I think the talent was overrated

Once teams figured out how to focus on Ratliff and Ware, the other 9 men on the field needed to step up.

They didn’t.

Turns out Spencer can’t rush the passer, Newman gets injured every year, Jenkins is a mental midget who cares more about his paycheck than wins, our safeties suck, and our ILBs are old and slow.

We have 2 playmakers on this defense and 9 JAGs.

The Ohio State Buckeyes are your Sugar Bowl champions... and for the 7th year in a row Michigan still sucks.

by Blue Eyed Devil on Mar 22, 2011 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions

Yeah

It just seems other teams get so much more out of their talent than us. The examples are many – the Jets have ONE pass-rusher, the Saints don’t have a front seven, the Bengals front seven is blah. The Jets and Saints were in the top 5 in the league in total D, whilst the Bengals were in the top half with, IMO, underwhelming talent.

by Ben24626 on Mar 22, 2011 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions

i dont have the numbers but the defense probably played more than the offense

by 0k on Mar 20, 2011 10:38 PM CDT reply actions

Yeah

That doesn’t help.

by Ben24626 on Mar 21, 2011 1:14 AM CDT up reply actions

I do recall....

That Phillips wanted to do more exotic blitzes but Bradie James wanted him to keep it simple. Personally, I think that teams started to catch up to us on a defensive front. We were doing the same simple plays because they were easier to execute. I put blame on the secondary because Newman and Jenkins do have weak technique. They are talented but, you see how far talent gets you without technique. Alan Ball should have never been put in as a Free Safety. We went cheap in the wrong part. I would rather go cheap on a CB than a safety.

F**** establishing a culture, we need to establish dominance...

by Holchr31 on Mar 21, 2011 2:10 PM CDT reply actions

Hmmm

I definitely heard alot of criticism of Jenkins’ technique.

by Ben24626 on Mar 22, 2011 1:59 AM CDT up reply actions

I think they all played factor, but I'd say #2, #2 and #5 were the biggest reasons.

Ball just wasn’t ready to be a starting FS, and the whole secondary had to compensate for that, and lost it’s confidence. We thought that he couldn’t possible be less than at least as good as Hamlin. Well, maybe Hamlin was a little underrated in terms of what he did well, he was never a ball-hawking, playmaking FS, but he rarely let a big play get behind him and he did a good job with the communication and coordination on the back end getting the secondary working together. Ball wasn’t any better at making plays on the ball, and was much worse in the other aspects.

I think the play calling was predictable especially in the way Wade brought pressure. It was always A-gap blitzes by the ILBs that were easily picked up by the backs. Rarely did he bring DB blitzes, and he didn’t effectively disguise the blitzes. Pasqualoni changed things up a bit but not significantly.

And, I do think there is something to the overall effort and discipline of the team under Wade. He left it up to the players to motivate and discipline themselves. That approach can work for a while, but after about 3 years (in previous coaching stints of his as well) it seems like the lack of discipline shows up in the level of preparation and attention to detail. The team loses it’s edge and doesn’t do the small things well, which is enough to lose games when the margin is so thin. The team as a whole improved as soon as Garrett took over, perhaps not as much on defense as on offense, but on defense too. Their takeaways went way up in the 2nd half of the season, for example. And having an offense that is working better helps the defense as well.

by scottmaui on Mar 21, 2011 6:53 PM CDT reply actions

Other Vote - Safeties and Coaching

Ball is not a starting FA, but I don’t let Sensa off the hook either. Sure, the game against Philly made his INT stats look pretty good, but he failed to become a leader in the secondary and is just as culpable to the misreads/mismatches/miscommmunication in my opinion.
I’ll throw all of coaching into the mix. Wade certainly gets a hefty poriton of that – failed as HC and routine as DC – as Pasq seemed to go to the other extreme with few recognizable blitzes, and more peopel dropping back in zone isntead of man coverage on islands. Campo didn’t seem to help stem the bleeding either.

"I am a true believer. Anthony Spencer will have 7 or more sacks in 2011 and Stephen Bowen can ball!" - Kegbearer
"Football is an incredible game. Sometimes it's so incredible, it's unbelievable."
- Tom Landry

by Kegbearer on Mar 21, 2011 7:59 PM CDT reply actions

FWIW

The defense the first five games seemed to play decent, at least statistically – 280 yards per game allowed. Opponents did score 111 pts in those five games (but at 22 pts per that’s still better than the season average of 27.2), but it should be noted that offensive turnovers, ill-advised penalties and poor special teams gave the other team very short fields (and two touchdowns).

That said, even in that stretch we could see that the pass defense was highly vulnerable and that the overall defense just wasn’t very “clutch.”

The defense just wasn’t very cataclysmic under Wade, as evidenced by the 10 turnovers forced in his 8 games. What I’d like to know is how did Paul Pasqualoni’s defense snag a remarkable 20 turnovers in half a season? Was it just luck, the way the ball bounces?

Anyway, I am pretty dang excited to have a Ryan in charge of the defense.

by DavidH22 on Mar 22, 2011 1:15 PM CDT reply actions

Wade believed in "Pressure pick"

He believes that pressure leads the QB to make mistakes which leads to picks. So he’d have his secondary jam receivers and turn their back to the QB as he blitzed 5, 6, 7 men on every down. Turns out, when your back is to the QB you can’t make interceptions.

Pasqualani played more zone where the DBs face the QB so they were able to create turnovers by jumping into passing lanes when they saw them.

Wade = hope the QB lobs a floating dead duck up in the air as the pass rush hits him
Paul = watch the QB’s eyes and jump into the passing lane

The Ohio State Buckeyes are your Sugar Bowl champions... and for the 7th year in a row Michigan still sucks.

by Blue Eyed Devil on Mar 22, 2011 4:01 PM CDT up reply actions

Yeah, I agree with BED

We played more zone, and as a consequence, got more interceptions. I think Wade’s schemes are too man based to be run unless you have a good secondary, because they don’t force many turnovers via interception. That’s the beauty of the zone blitz – blitz to increase pressure, but don’t take away the chance at an interception. Personally I hope we run all types of schemes this year, the more variable we are, the less predictable we are, and the harder we are to read for opposing QB’s.

by Ben24626 on Mar 22, 2011 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions

Btw

I’m not implying a good secondary will get lots of int’s in Wade’s scheme, just that if it’s shut-down enough, that shouldn’t matter. Also, a playmaking FS could really boost Wade’s D, as the FS is often in zone in his scheme.

by Ben24626 on Mar 22, 2011 4:39 PM CDT up reply actions