Wonderlic Redux
The Wonderlic is topical at the moment again so I'm going to update a Fanpost I did in March 2009. It looked at Wonderlic scores of NFL QB's and found there's a high correlation that very successful Quaterbacks will have above average (or better) Wonderlic scores. To get a better idea about the stats I'm putting up now have a read through that Fanpost for further explanations;http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2009/3/23/807364/wonderlic-scores
For those of you who don't want to read the other Fanpost I'll reiterate a couple of key points;
Being that the Wonderlic seems to be a somewhat controversial issue and some people seem to just "know" that it's "irrelevant" and react dismissively or angrily towards it, I'd like to make this first point abundantly clear so please understand the what I'm trying to say here: I'm not saying that anyone who scores high on a Wonderlic will perform well as an NFL QB. What I'm saying is that it is definitely more likely that NFL QB's who are very successful in the New Millennium Era (year 2000 onwards) will have scored high on the Wonderlic skill test.
Please understand that paragraph before posting so the thread is not riddled with irrelevant posts like "but Alex Smith scored 40" or "but Drew Henson scored 42". I'm not saying a certain type of intelligence is the only measure of success, quite obviously it's football, they also need to be athletic, tough, have a strong work ethic, can handle multiple pressure's both on and off field etc. What I am saying is that in the multitude of skills QB's need to be successful intelligence is absolutely one and an important one at that. While the Wonderlic might not be the perfect test it does seem to show some interesting results that can't just be dismissed.
The average Wonderlic score for those trying to enter the NFL is 20. The average Wonderlic score for those trying to enter the NFL as QB's is 24. The 2008 figures are covered in the original Fanpost so I'll update it with 2009 and 2010.
2009 – Name, Score, QB Rating.
Drew Brees – 28 – 109.6
Brett Farve – 22 – 107.2
Philip Rivers – 30 – 104.4
Aaron Rodgers – 35 – 103.2
Ben Roethlisberger – 25 – 100.5
Peyton Manning – 28 – 99.9
Matt Schaub – 31 – 98.6
Tony Romo – 37 – 97.6
Tom Brady – 33 – 96.2
Kurt Warner – ?? – 93.2
Eli Manning – 39 – 93.1
That's the Top 3rd of QB's in the NFL in 2009. The only person under the average QB score of 24 is Brett Farve (a guy with a career long reputation for throwing boneheaded interceptions at the worst possible time!). Every other QB on the list scores over the average of 24. As a group (including Farve) they averaged almost 31 (30.8).
2010 – Name, Score, QB rating.
Tom Brady – 33 – 111.0
Philip Rivers – 30 – 101.8
Aaron Rodgers – 35 – 101.2
Michael Vick – 20 – 100.2
Ben Roethlisberger – 25 – 97.0
Josh Freeman – 27 – 95.9
Joe Flacco – 27 – 93.6
Matt Cassell – ?? - 93.0
Matt Schaub – 31 – 92.0
Peyton Manning – 28 – 91.9
Matt Ryan – 32 – 91.0
That's the Top 3rd of QB's in the NFL in 2010. The only person under the average QB score of 24 is Michael Vick who had a career year is probably the most athletically gifted QB of all-time. Every other QB on the list scored over the QB average score of 24. As a group (including Vick) they averaged almost 29 (28.8).
That's totally in line with what the results were in 2008 (group average of 30.3). That's 3 years straight of the NFL's Top 3rd of QB's averaging well over the total QB average (it's probably a lot longer than 3 years but who's got the time!). In the previous Fanpost an analysis of every starting QB in the league revealed their average was a few points higher than the average of every college QB that took the Wonderlic. A clear sign that when the NFL picks the best QB's, on average, it's picking both the best athletically and mentally and that the Wonderlic is a useful tool for measuring the mental aspect.
Next, some updated data from the last Fanpost.
Superbowl winning QB's from 2000 onwards;
Kurt Warner – ??
Trent Dilfer – 22.
Tom Brady – 33.
Brad Johnson – ??
Tom Brady – 33.
Tom Brady – 33.
Ben Roethlisberger – 25.
Peyton Manning – 28.
Eli Manning – 39.
Ben Roethlisberger – 25.
Drew Brees – 28.
Aaron Rodgers – 35.
The only Superbowl winning QB below the average QB score is Trent Dilfer; a QB who is regarded as having been a bus driver behind one of the greatest Defenses of All-Time.
9 out of the last 10 Superbowl winning QB's have been above the average score of 24 and the Superbowl winning QB average is 30.1.
And as I stated in my previous post, all the multiple Superbowl winning Quarterbacks since 1990 have been well above the total football average (score of 20) and clearly above the statistical average QB (score of 24).
Troy Aikman, 3 Superbowls – 29.
Tom Brady, 3 Superbowls – 33.
John Elway, 2 Superbowls – 29.
Ben Roethlisberger, 2 Superbowls – 25.
To conclude I'll steal a few lines from my original Fanpost:
In conclusion; I'm not suggesting that a QB should be drafted solely on his Wonderlic score. The same way I wouldn't suggest drafting a RB solely on his Forty yard dash time. But measuring a RB's speed is very important as they make the jump from College to the much faster NFL game. In the same way, measuring a QB's mental skill is very important as they make the jump from College to the much more complicated, technical and challenging NFL game.
The Wonderic Test; not every Quarterback who scores high on the Wonderlic is going to be a success, but the most successful Quarterback's very often have the higher scores.
Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.
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I think the test score should be at 30% of the evaluation in my opinion…but thats just me I’ve tried to teach idiots …but its like they wake up every day and forgot everything ya showed them the next day….and they never learn..day after day i gotta do there job and mine? it’s frustrating ..and I expect perfection and precision ….
I don't think I agree here.
The problem I have with this is that the underlying assumption for the correlations shown above is that a player who is good at algebra, word games and logic problems will make better decisions on the field.
Being a successful quarterback in the NFL requires a completely different set of skills than solving logic problems. Otherwise Ryan Fitzpatrick, with a 48 score, would be the best QB in the league, Matt Leinart (35) would still have a job and Dan Marino (14) and that Steelers QB whose name I keep forgetting (15) would never have made it in the NFL.
The Wonderlic evaluates a specific kind of thinking that goes into problem solving, but most quarterbacks don’t think all that much in the pocket. There just isn’t time. /Rant finished.
Of course, given two equal candidates I would always choose the one with the higher Wonderlic – That guy will probably learn the playbook faster, he’ll be better at analyzing game tape and he’ll probably be able to give better input into the overall game strategy. All good stuff. But he won’t be able to read blitzes faster, throw the ball with more precision or generally make better decisions on the field.
by One.Cool.Customer on Mar 22, 2011 10:11 AM CDT reply actions
I think you've misrepresented my argument a bit OCC.
Being a successful quarterback in the NFL requires a completely different set of skills than solving logic problems. Otherwise Ryan Fitzpatrick, with a 48 score, would be the best QB in the league
I never tried to claim that a high Wonderlic score is the only measure for deciding success. I clearly stated at the start of my post;
I’d like to make this first point abundantly clear so please understand the what I’m trying to say here: I’m not saying that anyone who scores high on a Wonderlic will perform well as an NFL QB. What I’m saying is that it is definitely more likely that NFL QB’s who are very successful in the New Millennium Era (year 2000 onwards) will have scored high on the Wonderlic skill test.
Please understand that paragraph before posting so the thread is not riddled with irrelevant posts like “but Alex Smith scored 40” or “but Drew Henson scored 42”. I’m not saying a certain type of intelligence is the only measure of success, quite obviously it’s football, they also need to be athletic, tough, have a strong work ethic, can handle multiple pressure’s both on and off field etc. What I am saying is that in the multitude of skills QB’s need to be successful intelligence is absolutely one and an important one at that. While the Wonderlic might not be the perfect test it does seem to show some interesting results that can’t just be dismissed.
And then concluded it again addressing the point you raised;
In conclusion; I’m not suggesting that a QB should be drafted solely on his Wonderlic score. The same way I wouldn’t suggest drafting a RB solely on his Forty yard dash time. But measuring a RB’s speed is very important as they make the jump from College to the much faster NFL game. In the same way, measuring a QB’s mental skill is very important as they make the jump from College to the much more complicated, technical and challenging NFL game.
The Wonderic Test; not every Quarterback who scores high on the Wonderlic is going to be a success, but the most successful Quarterback’s very often have the higher scores.
So clearly I’m not trying to make a claim that a high Wonderlic score is all that matters.
The Wonderlic evaluates a specific kind of thinking that goes into problem solving, but most quarterbacks don’t think all that much in the pocket. There just isn’t time.
I agree that once the play starts thinking time is limited but I think that just shows my point. A surprise blitz, a D change of coverage just before the snap (all things that are very popular and prevalent in today’s NFL) are designed to mentally confuse the QB hoping he’ll make a poor decision. The QB must make a very quick mental decision based on play-call, hot routes, coverage type, blitz type, etc. He needs to process information quickly under duress. The Wonderlic is a test that measures the ability to make quick mental decisions about a deliberately confusing set of questions. I’m not saying it’s perfect but it does seem to be relevant.
I agree that a higher scorer "will probably learn the playbook faster" and "be better at analyzing game tape" but I don’t see how you can then say "he won’t be able to read blitzes faster". Knowing the playbook like the back of your hand and being good at analyzing game film are crucial factors to reading blitzes. How many times have we seen interviews with QB’s recounting big plays commenting about how they recognized the blitz (from film study) and knew exactly were to go with the ball straight away (before the blitz got them). It’s not just all pre-snap either, I’ve heard several top QB’s commenting that they watch the Safety’s after the ball is snapped to confirm Defenses coverages and then make the final decision on where the ball goes. All this is thinking in the pocket that needs to done very quickly and often under duress. The best QB’s are also very active with coaches in game day adjustments to the offense.
I’m not saying there’s a perfect correlation between Wonderlic results and QB success but there does seem to be an interesting result that virtually all the QB’s considered the best in the game for the last several years have nearly all scored above average on the Wonderlic.
I think there’s a reason that teams continue to administer this test and there’s a reason they use it as a contributing factor when making decisions on players.
sorry if my reply appeared a little stand-offish.
I simply focused on the tables that showed high performance correlating with high wonderlic scores (for the most part). I immediately started hyperventilating, and forgot to read the rest. No offense meant.
by One.Cool.Customer on Mar 23, 2011 4:51 AM CDT up reply actions
this made me laugh;
I immediately started hyperventilating, and forgot to read the rest.
Shame on you OCC
"And one should bear in mind that there is nothing more difficult to execute, nor more dubious of success, nor more dangerous to administer than to introduce a new order to things; for he who introduces it has all those who profit from the old order as his enemies; and he has only lukewarm allies in all those who might profit from the new. This lukewarmness partly stems from fear of their adversaries, who have the law on their side, and partly from the skepticism of men, who do not truly believe in new things unless they have personal experience in them."
Niccolo Machiavelli
by I am Ironman!!! on Mar 23, 2011 4:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Supposedly Patrick Peterson scored a 9
go listen to this interview: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hapGnAjCAOU
Does he sound like he’s illiterate and functionally sub-intelligent? No! he sounds like a man with a working brain.
Not that wonderlic impacts CBs, but in this case the 9 is obviously meaningless
Yeah I saw him on NFLN last night.
He was talking articulately and seemed more than fine. I think if teams let him drop because of that then that will only be putting us in better position to maybe make a play for him.
If I had a nickel for every time the Eagles won the Super Bowl, I would have zero nickels
AA
I watched/listened to the Patrick Peterson interview and I agree with you he does not seem "illiterate or functionally sub intelligent" at all. He actually seems like a very nice young man (or in scout speak – ‘good character’). Having said that I also don’t think he came across as particularly bright either. At the CB position I’m not to sure how much it really matters (scouts have commentated that it does but to what degree probably depends on the scheme).
I also think that one test result does not mean you are forever set in stone. There can be guys who just have a bad day (for any number of reasons) and run a 4.56 forty at the combine when they’ve repeatedly run 4.41’s in practice. I think the Wonderlic can be similar. Perhaps someone who would usually score around 20 has a bad day (for any number of reasons) and scores a 12. Sometimes you just don’t perform at your capable peak at a test. It happens.
Example – people love to recall that Jerry Rice only ran a 4.60 forty at the 1985 combine, a very slow time for a WR. Michael Lombardi, who was a scout for the 49ers at that time, has also noted that Jerry Rice was repeatedly timed by the team as running low 4.4’s. Jerry wasn’t really a 4.6 guy (just watch the games!), he just had a bad run on test day.

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