Cowboys 2011 Draft: Playing The Scenario Game
by rabblerousr on Mar 4, 2011 4:00 PM CST
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PrintAt some juncture during the draft season, teams must gather in their war-rooms to play the scenario game. Every team must be prepared for each possible scenario that might unfold: "If, by our pick, these three players are on the board, we will select player A; if these two players remain, we will pick player B; If these five players remain, we will trade down x spots and still get a guy we like." Given the unpredictability of the draft, its very difficult, if not downright impossible, to target specific players in, say, the sixth round. At that juncture of the draft, teams are looking to pick up players with some kind of upside, almost regardless of position.
Its far easier to play the scenario game in the first couple of rounds. Lets look at the last two Cowboys drafts for examples. The 2009 safety class was strong, so Dallas, without a first round pick, felt that they could find a god one in the middle of the second round. It was also a strong draft for offensive tackles, so the Cowboys braintrust correctly assumed that some of the elite interior linemen would fall far enough should none of their favored safeties still be on the board. As we remember all too well, safeties Louis Delmas, Patrick Chung and Jairus Byrd all went in the first ten picks of round two; interior linemen Alex Mack of Cal and Louisville's Eric Wood went in the first third of round one. Oregon's Max Unger continued to fall, however, until he was snapped up two picks before Dallas was on the board. The Cowboys promptly traded down.
Last year, Dallas targeted three players who had mid-first round grades and resolved to trade up to get them should they begin to fall a bit. Two of them, Texan FS Earl Thomas and OG Mike Iupati of Idaho, were gobbled up at picks 14 and 17, respectively. But Dez Bryant continued to fall until he was within striking distance. Jerry Jones struck, Bryant became a Cowboy and the rest is history.
Both of these scenarios--one a trade down, the other a trade up--were planned in advance by Jones, son Stephen and Dallas Director of College and Pro Scouting Tom Ciskowski. If Bryant had been snapped up last year, Dallas had a plan; If both Iupati and Bryant had been available at #24, they had a plan for that as well. On TV, the draft sometimes appears to be chaotic (all those trades!). But its a very well-rehearsed chaos; teams must play out ALL the possible scenarios that might unfold and have a viable set of contingencies for each. Within each potential pool of draftees, they know which player they will select or, if the pool is big enough, when they might trade down and still nab their guy. In advance of the draft, they will have called numerous teams to inquire about their interest in making a trade at given points in the draft, so that they have a good sense of where and when they can move up or down the draft ladder.
With that in mind, I'd like to do the same several times between now and the draft, looking at various potential draft permutations, offering solutions to scenarios, etc. I'd like to begin the "GM for a day" game by looking at what might be considered the best and worst possible scenarios. As these will attest, when you pick at #9, its hard not to like whatever might happen.
Lets begin by throwing out what I think would be the best possible scenario. As KD showed us in his recap of the BTB Mock Draft's picks 9-12, the Cowboy's needs are legion: ROT, FS, OG, SS, CB, SILB, WILB, 3-4 DE, 3-4 OLB. Essentially, the Cowboys need help everywhere save the offensive skill positions. As I imagine what might happen at picks 1-8, therefore, my optimal scenario has both of the elite WRs, Georgia's A.J. Green and Julio Jones of Alabama, going off the board. Moreover, there are three teams in the top eight--Cincinnati, Arizona, and Tennessee, who have a gaping hole at quarterback. It would be helpful if at least two of those teams decide to fill that hole in the first round. If both of these transpire, we could see something like this:
| Draft Pick | Team | 2010 Record | Selection | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carolina | (2-14) | DT Nick Fairley, Auburn | |
| 2 | Denver | (4-12) | DT Marcel Darius, Alabama |
|
| 3 | Buffalo | (4-12) | QB Cam Newton, Auburn |
|
| 4 | Cincinatti | (4-12) | WR A.J. Green, Georgia |
|
| 5 | Arizona | (5-11) | QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri | |
| 6 | Cleveland | (5-11) | WR Julio Jones, Alabama |
|
| 7 | San Francisco | (6-10) | OLB Von Miller, Texan A & M |
|
| 8 | Tennesee | (6-10) | DE Da'Quan Bowers, Clemson |
|
| 9 | Dallas | (6-10) | CB Patrick Peterson |
Obviously, in a draft with trades this is less likely to happen. But you never know; depending on the CBA negotiations, and whether or not a rookie wage scale is put into place, we could again see a fairly immobile top ten. If that's the case, a scenario like this could quite conceivably unfold. And if it does, Dallas would get the player that "sources" say is #1 on their board.
But what happens if NONE of the offensive skill position players go off the board by the time Dallas picks? This indeed might be the worst possible scenario:
| Draft Pick | Team | 2010 Record | Selection | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carolina | (2-14) | DT Nick Fairley, Auburn | |
| 2 | Denver | (4-12) | DE Da'Quan Bowers, Clemson | |
| 3 | Buffalo | (4-12) | CB Patrick Peterson, LSU | |
| 4 | Cincinatti | (4-12) | DT Marcel Dareus, Alabama | |
| 5 | Arizona | (5-11) | OLB Von Miller, Texas A & M | |
| 6 | Cleveland | (5-11) | DE Cameron Jordan, Cal |
|
| 7 | San Francisco | (6-10) | OLB Robert Quinn, North Carolina | |
| 8 | Tennesee | (6-10) | CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska |
|
| 9 | Dallas | (6-10) | ??? |
In this scenario, Dallas has a difficult choice to make--but they'd choose from amongst an almost embarrassing array of riches. If you are Jerry Jones and the board plays out this way, what do you do? Go with the best player available--one of the receivers, Green or Jones--even though WR is clearly not a position of need? Take the best available offensive tackle (Dallas will surely have their pick of the top OTs; there is no team in the top eight other than Buffalo that needs one, and I can't imagine they'd take one that high)? Go for a top 3-4 DE like guy like J.J. Watt or Ryan Kerrigan, both of who have off-the-charts production ratios? Take a chance on the second coming of Emmitt Smith?
Assuming you can't make a trade, what would you do fellow BTBers?
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With the 9th Pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, the Cowboys choose . . . . .
I would have to say Tyron Smith, OT USC.
I know it isn’t sexy, but with this pick, Jason Garrett finally has a OLine that can function at a higher level than it has in recent years. With such a deep draft in many areas of need on the Defensive side of the ball, Dallas should be able to fill those holes later. . . . .
It would be optimal to trade down and get more picks, but I tried to adhere to the rules.
by RE1D on Mar 4, 2011 4:09 PM CST reply actions 10 recs
Took the words right out of my mouth
100% agreement in everything you said.
Rec’d
"I am a true believer. Anthony Spencer will have 7 or more sacks in 2011 and Stephen Bowen can ball!" - Kegbearer
"Football is an incredible game. Sometimes it's so incredible, it's unbelievable."
- Tom Landry
No question
It’s a early, but no question Smith is the pick if you can’t trade down.
Not sold on Tyron Smith
I watched tape on all of the OT prospects last night and wasn’t impressed with what he would bring to the table in his first year. I think he is a great prospect, but we need a player that can step in and play day one. Tyron is athletic, does a good job of shielding pass rushers, but does not seem to have the power to knock anyone off the line in the run game.
Of the OT’s that I watched, I think Carimi and Costanzo are the most ready to step in and play day one. Sherrod is next. Smith and Solder are going to need a year to develop. I think they will be great, but we don’t have a season to invest.
Also....
I read that he played ROT instead of LOT at USC because he has a slow first step. I know that we need a ROT, but its a red flag for me that USC thought he would be a liability on the left side.
I was just trying to stay within the perameters rabblerousr set out for us.
I don’t think we have to get Tyron Smith in order to be successful, I just know there isn’t much depth in this draft for OT. As a result, OT is where we need to start, IMHO. Someone who can start from Day One. If we get that, we have a complete and very scary Offense that can protect our center piece, Tony Romo. It would also allow Garrett’s Offense to flourish since we won’t have to continue with 1 step drops on passing plays . . . . . Seriously imagine Romo taking a 5 or 7 step drop, the Offense picking up a blitz and Austin or Bryant beating their 1 on 1 coverage.
To me, the perfect scenario, assuming Peterson doesn’t fall to us, is trading down and picking up another pick or two. Personally I would look to move down a couple spots and pick up 3rd Rounders if possible. Let other teams make their runs on the WRs and QBs they covet. Repeat this a few times if possible, so we have some extra Mid-Draft picks to move up from #40 should we desire. Or keep #40 and have a few extra Mid-Draft picks for added depth in our areas of deficiancy.
Anything we can do to increase quantity without completely sacrificing quality should be our goal, once again, IMHO.
by RE1D on Mar 5, 2011 2:57 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
+1
I really hope we are able to find a trading partner to move back in the first round to target Carimi, Costanzo or Sherrod. All could start at a high level in week 1 on the right side. Much better value picking them in the back end of the first, plus the extra pick/picks.
I like a number of players in the middle of round 2 that could fill roster needs and compete for starting jobs.
I have never read that he has a slow first step, or that USC though that he would be a liability on the left side.
Where did you see that? I have read quite a few draft sites looking at opinions on him.
well
in your first scenario i take peterson NO DOUBT
in the second scenario, i try to find a trade partner for one of the WRs or QB’s. With the skins next on the clock after us the 1st QB could go……
If no one bites on the trade down, take Smith
He who laughs last, thinks slowest
Well.....my days of not taking you seriously have certainly come to a middle
"Pleased to meet you, hope you guess my name"
I'm on board with this
Peterson if available, if Smith still on board and Peterson off then trade down to position I think I can still grab Smith. If I guessed wrong and Smith goes, I take Carimi and still go home happy b/c I got a quality OT AND extra picks.
I Wall of Text like it's the in thing to do
"...and just things really starting to unravel now for Utah..." Herbie, BSU vs. Utah, 22 Dec 2010
With the 9th pick
I have been debating between 2 players here..OT tyrone Smith or DE JJ Watt…Very tough choice but I would go with Tyrone Smith because we need youth on our o line in the worst way ….
i agree with that opinion
due to the fact all the top tier OL players will be gone at the cowboys second pick
by 0k on Mar 4, 2011 5:47 PM CST up reply actions
thats what its coming down to for me as well
I have
Tyron Smith
Prince BOOMshockaLOCKA
JJ Watt
Brandon Harris
those are my 4 guys I would consider at #9
by Archie Barberio on Mar 4, 2011 8:07 PM CST up reply actions
All though we would all love the 1st scenario..........
the 2nd one really makes your wheels turn. I dont like the best player available at that point. I say you coordinate your biggest need with the best player available. Even though A.J. Green would be the best players left, do you really want to pull a Detroit Lions and pick one of those guys? Do you really want to spend a top 10 pick on someone who is going to be a third in there first year?
I would love to see them trade down at that point. Maybe to someone that has a crush on Newton or Gabbert. Maybe to the mid to late teens. Then take the best olineman or 3-4 end.
We're here to win football games. The way to do that is to tell him and to get on him at the right times. I do that when you guys (media) don't see and watch.''
What else makes a strong leader?
"You win,'' Romo said. "You're a very good leader once you win.
"That's' what we're going to do.''
No sh!t?
The 2009 safety class was strong, so Dallas, without a first round pick, felt that they could find a god one in the middle of the second round.
Oh man, if we’ve got an inside track on the Second Coming, snag him, whoever he is.
Though, didn’t work out so well in 2009, so maybe our evaluations and choices need some work.
Color me not trusting till I hear a HOF speech on any player. Even then, I got some issues sometimes. You?
Point After (rule change): You score, you kick. Debate welcomed.
Nah. Too light on his feet.
He’d get knocked ass over tea-kettle.
Now, a CB/safety/WR with the power of Ascension…
Point After (rule change): You score, you kick. Debate welcomed.
I wanna add something here
this is a WEAK safety class, if Akwasi was in this draft he would be a top 4-5 safety
by Archie Barberio on Mar 4, 2011 8:14 PM CST up reply actions
Sorry, Tan
I’ll still take Chia’s purple alien… He comes with ray guns.
To this day I have no idea what that woman was singing about. Like, literally no idea. I don’t know what a hollaback girl is. But I have to imagine it is a foul, disease ridden thing that wears too much make-up just to cover up the fact that it is a forty-seven year-old fish dog. – Family guy
by BlueNSilverBlood on Mar 5, 2011 7:22 AM CST up reply actions
In the worst case scenario
this hurts… but I feel trapped… we need a Tackle who can play! It has to be Tackle. Other wise in your scenario, I’d take JJ Watt
yup
OT all the way. Nothing goes without big uglies…
To this day I have no idea what that woman was singing about. Like, literally no idea. I don’t know what a hollaback girl is. But I have to imagine it is a foul, disease ridden thing that wears too much make-up just to cover up the fact that it is a forty-seven year-old fish dog. – Family guy
by BlueNSilverBlood on Mar 5, 2011 7:24 AM CST up reply actions
That is not a scenario I could truthfully answer without knowing what the staff thinks about all of the OTs not named Free.
The talent level between Green and Jones versus anyone left on the board is pretty ridiculous. I know it is not a need, but that would be hard to pass up. Personally I think you would have to draft one of the WR’s..
Wars are won in the trenches and we need some new big uglies!
I’d only draft them to trade em…. maybe to NE, who can use a legit #1, for their top 1st and 2nd
by AustonianAggie on Mar 4, 2011 4:36 PM CST up reply actions
I know it's tough
I agree that Green could be a phenomenal receiver and presents great value at #9, but Dallas having Miles Austin prevents me from making that pick. Even assuming Roy Willie gets cut, you have $9M of Miles Austin, Dez’s relatively cheap rookie contract (though who knows when he will demand that Jerry tear that up for a big-money deal), and a possible #9 draft pick contract all on the books at one position. This, while multiple other positions of need go unfilled.
Too rich for my blood.
by Combine_Warrior on Mar 4, 2011 5:08 PM CST up reply actions
yea picking Green would be a huge upgrade..
then later you may b able to trade Miles in future years netting a 1st or 2nd down the road.. while having a replacement already groom…
Also if both those recivers is on the board at 9th .. The 9th pick would be so valuable many teams would want to trade up..
yeah I can’t imagine some team that needs a WR not wanting to trade up to grab Green or Jones who are both good value at that point. Then we can grab one of the OTs in the mid-first round and have an extra pick in perhaps the 2nd to fill another need.
Yeah, hopefully some one behind us REALLY needs a WR
and we can get a king’s ransom for the pick.
"We'll see." --Bill Parcells
So do the Skins. Possibly the Vikings, KC and the Pats.
Wars are won in the trenches and we need some new big uglies!
the pats too!!!!!!!!
they r the team with the fire power plus i doubt they will use all those picks.. they may go in and get a blue chip prospect..I thinking wr
Remember when they gave us Dez? Now its time for us to return the favor..
First scenario the Cowboys should take JJ Watt
Second scenario take JJ Watt
by playactionman on Mar 4, 2011 4:39 PM CST via mobile reply actions
I like your thinking there. All the subtlety of an M1 Abrams tank and the flexibility of tungsten steel. But it does net you a great player.
by One.Cool.Customer on Mar 4, 2011 5:02 PM CST up reply actions
+M1
formerly I draft the Cowboys!!!
Yes...I am Ironman....seriously my last name is ironman in German
though according to One.Cool. Customer. at BTB, I am Chris Greisen
Knowledge and Skill overcome superstition and Luck-Dawn Patrol
by I am Ironman!!! on Mar 4, 2011 6:34 PM CST up reply actions
Bob Sturm: Cowboys shouldn’t draft Prince Amukamara, DE ‘would be outstanding’ .
The Sturminator has joined us on the dark side.
by One.Cool.Customer on Mar 4, 2011 5:58 PM CST up reply actions
dark side?
there’s a reason the 18th century and the rise of empiricism is called The Enlightenment.
by Fan in Thick and Thin on Mar 4, 2011 6:37 PM CST up reply actions
JJ Watt
my corn fed white boy from another mother
me and JJ, we just click
man I would love to get that kid here
by Archie Barberio on Mar 4, 2011 8:08 PM CST up reply actions
Easy choice
You’ve gotta take Tyron Smith (or a different OT). There is no question that Dallas has to get at least one starting-caliber OL in this draft, and there is no guarantee there will be one left at pick #40. There will be plenty of DEs left in the 2nd (and maybe even the 3rd) round.
Take Tyron Smith and finally breathe a little easier about the Cowboys O-line.
No... Pick #40 is Correct
DAL Owns #9, #40, #71, #109, #140, #171, and #209
(until the trading of pks begins during the draft)
Just trying to get everyone on the same page. :-)
Golden Rule: He who has the gold makes the rules.
I disagree.
I think the drop off this year between 1st round OT and 2nd/3rd round OT is not that great. This year’s top tackles just aren’t as good as in years past. By “not as good”, I mean I don’t see any tackles with both a high ceiling and a high floor (ie. All-Pro potential and a really safe pick).
I think all the real difference makers at DE will go in the first round, leaving a bunch of guys in rounds 2-5 that can be good but not special.
Even so, I would probably end up taking a WR if I couldn’t trade down. With a top ten pick and the money involved, you want a guy with great potential and a safe pick and I don’t see that special player at OT or DE (just pretty good players, IMO). The Cowboys (and most teams) play 3 WR a lot, so it is not like he would never see the field or be able to contribute. The Eagles and Giants have spent multiple high picks on WR and seems to be working for them. And we certainly shouldn’t let Roy W. or his contract dictate what our team will look like for the next 5 years.
the worst case scenario seems to be the most realistic
due to the fact that none of the QB’s in this draft class are day one starters
and when you pick that high that player must start day one.
with a run like that on DE’s the cowboy’s get the cream of the crop pick at OL..but cowboys never pick OL in the first round …but if it were me I would get the best OL player on the board with the first pick even if it is a bit of a reach and address DL with the second pick hoping the other teams start reaching for the leftover OL…hopefully that allows a DL player to drop some spots closer to the second pick and maybe trade up a little to nab another day one starter on the DL
Ah second scenario
You have to take the bluechippers forget about the OT’s in the top ten- just look for some interior or DE help in the second.
Julio Jones, AJ Green and Graham are your best bets to become pro-bowlers.
We got jobbed
That sounds like a shotgun wedding to me. We want better value before selecting an O-lineman. We don’t need the “best players available” because WR is solid for us.
CB Jimmy Smith fits more of the BPA with actual Need.
But I agree that we have to come out of this draft with a Lineman who starts, a Safety (by the way, any word on how AKA is progressing since we selected him to be an answer at Safety), and a DE (cause we HAVE to get to the Qb this year without Having to send extra help and opening up holes down field)! ~and then other than that grab the Kicker from Nebraska (if we aren’t going to punch it in when we are in the Red Zone then we need to have someone we trust at kicker not just a “big leg”).
Great Senario! You are really making us think! Right O-Tackle
In the event of the second scenario, I think you definitely trade down.
How far depends on who you’re targeting. If you want Tyron Smith or J.J. Watt, it would be prudent to trade down into the mid teens and not get cute. On the other hand, if you value additional picks more and have your eye on Carimi or Castonzo, it would be better to swing something with New England or San Diego (or some other team in the late teens/early 20s).
First scenario is fucking awesome, of course, but I don’t really see Peterson slipping past San Francisco outside of sheer luck. Maybe Tennessee.
Second Scenario...
…..if a lack of trades due to the negotiation happens IMO you go for the bluechippers. Julio, AJ, or even Graham. I feel your only a little injury away from a position of need. OT’s may be a reach in the top ten?
Second scenario
I think you have to trade down. Get a later first round pick for a future first and a few later picks. Then try to trade those later picks up for a second second round pick. 3 picks in the top 64 would be very nice, IMO. It may lack the “star power”, but I think you could net 3 solid players and shore up 3 need positions much quicker this way.
"Wade is no longer the coach." Jason Garrett
I likey............
……………BUT- that is if you get a dance partner who is willing. I kind of lean towards having a “superstar” and a good starter with the 40th pick rather than perhaps three good starters.
I see the logic there, I really do.
However, in light of the
Fan post of the week
I think we really should trade down. if the first round draft picks aren necessarily that much stronger than the second round picks, I think we really should trade down. I think that we could fill far more holes, and field a much more competitive team (at a better price against the cap) if we take this approach.
"Wade is no longer the coach." Jason Garrett
I agree
with trading down. BPA is a QB or WR, neither which is a need for us. I really dont want to take a WR here. The Lions took WRs when they didnt need them and that didnt work out so well for them. I say trade down with someone that wants one of the QBs or WRs and get a tackle in the 15-20 range because we could really use the extra pick we would get. I would like to get Tyron Smith but it may be to much of a reach at 9.
One would think with that second scenario, St. Louis would be chomping at the bit to trade up and take Green or Jones.
Pick up some extra picks and only move down five spots? I’ll take that ten times out of ten.
The bust ratio of WR is too wide for me to bite
How many times have we heard player X is the consensus #1 player in the draft to see them fizzle and end up out of the league in 3 years? Charles Rogers, Mike Williams anyone? Same with RBs. I say stick with the bust ratio chart and draft an OL even if it may be “too high” See this awesome post by OCC from before last years draft.
If you cant miss on a pick, and I think we would all agree that this is the year we cant, then you go with the numbers. How many people would be sad if we had #9 in last years draft and picked up Mike Pouncey?
I agree. If it's the second scenario, go ahead and take the tackle.
But wouldn’t it make more sense to trade down since most of those tackles will be there in the mid- to late-first round?
I depends on who you like
If the tackle you really want is there, you have to trust your draft grade and take him. It seems to me that there is a significant drop off and I would just pull the trigger.
I guess it depends on how far you move down in the draft.
If it’s only 3-5 spots, I’d say pull the trigger, collect the picks, and hope Smith falls to us. If not, another DE or Castanzo/Carimi/Solder and another pick in a very deep draft are not bad constellation prizes.
Tyron Smith's pro day
at the end of the month is looming large, I reckon. If he grades out, let’s get him at 9.
I get the sense Jerry is reluctant to drop out of a Top 10 pick and will take BPA, hopefully one that falls in an area of need.
Keep doing what you been doing, keep getting what you been getting.
I'd have to say Watt
with free getting that tender less he leaves I don’t see us drafting o-line that early. Now with this maybe we get a call from NE to trade down two big name WR I could see it. Draft just needs to hurry as the CBA does too. But that’s what is on my mind at the moment.
Someone's always Going to be Hating on Da Boyz
The way I see the draft...
I get the feeling Carolina, and others, has an eye on Andrew Luck next year. However, they invested a second round pick in Jimmy Clausen, so they may as well give him a chance. Because of this, they should give him a weapon. Because of this I believe they select:
Carolina Panthers – AJ Green WR
Green’s BPA on most boards, he gives Clausen a weapon and gives the next guy a good WR if Clausen doesn’t work out.
If John Fox really is looking for the next Julius Peppers or Kris Jenkins, the answer isn’t Da’quan Bowers or Nick Fairley, it’s another DT:
Denver Broncos – Marcel Dareus DT Alabama
Dareus will help the team transition from the 34 to the 43. 43 Rush ends aren’t as rare as a DT like Dareus, there’s plenty of serviceable guys that are out there that can be had at a low cost.
As to the Bills…lots of different directions they can go with. Chan Gailey isn’t really known for a particular coaching philosophy in terms of offense or defense like Fox, or some of the other new coaches. May as well start with a QB, they need someone to excite the fan base so the Bills take:
Buffalo Bills – Cam Newton QB Auburn
They have Fitzpatrick so they can take their time with Newton, if there’s an NFL coach that can work with Cam Newton its Chan Gailey. I think this pick makes lots of sense to not only excite the fan base, but mainly because Buffalo is so bad that they need something serious to happen for the team to start winning. If Newton pans out the team goes back to respectability.
The Bengals are faced with the proposition of losing Carson Palmer, so the standard wisdom has them taking AJ Green to placate him, but Green’s gone. Jones would be a bit of a reach here, however there’s some players on the board way to good to pass up.
Cincinnati Bengals – Da’quan Bowers DE Clemson
Great pass rusher, Palmer’s going to eventually leave sooner or later anyways. May as well take a stud defender and hope the promise of an improved defense brings back Palmer. Who knows, maybe a Palmer for McNabb, or a Palmer for another QB who is starting to fall out of favor swap could work out. Either way, great player, good value here.
Everyone knows the Cards need a QB. They have Larry Fitzgerald and Beanie Wells in place, so any QB that steps in will have a leg up on most rookie QBs. So their pick is (unsurprisingly)
Arizona Cardinals – Blaine Gabbert QB Missouri.
Gabbert’s an accurate passer, a fairly high floor for a rookie QB, he should bring the Cardinals within shouting distance of the NFC West crown.
The Browns are committed to Colt McCoy, however they are a dearth of talent at the skills position. Peyton Hillis had a great year, but RBs like him have very short shelf lives and are prone to injury. They need to give Colt McCoy a shiny new toy so they select
Julio Jones WR Alabama
Jones had a great combine, and is starting to challenge AJ Green for the number one WR on some boards. Solid pick, maybe a bit of a reach, but unless the Cowboys want to trade up with the Browns (which could work for reasons I’ll state on a different day) they’ll pick Jones here.
Right now Cowboys fans should be feeling pretty good. Two teams ahead of them and Von Miller, Nick Fairley, and Patrick Peterson are still on the board. Either way they get a great player.
SF takes Von Miller, they need a good pass rushing OLB in that defense.
Tennessee takes Fairley to anchor their DL and provide a pass rushing attack that’s been missing
Peterson falls into Dallas’ hands.
All reasonable picks, what say you?
by Omar Little on Mar 4, 2011 7:38 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
I would change one thing....
I do believe that SF runs a 4-3 defense…Now I could be Wrong, but if they run a 4-3 I think that they take Peterson rather than Miller…Which means Tenn. takes fairley and Dallas takes Miller..aka Ware v2.0
formerly I draft the Cowboys!!!
Yes...I am Ironman....seriously my last name is ironman in German
though according to One.Cool. Customer. at BTB, I am Chris Greisen
Knowledge and Skill overcome superstition and Luck-Dawn Patrol
by I am Ironman!!! on Mar 5, 2011 12:35 AM CST up reply actions
Scenario Two
I know my phone will be ringing, so I take my pick of awesome offers for the pick. I still get one of the top three OT’s, I get an extra second, and have my DE & CB in the second.
If you can't fix it with a hammer, you've got an electrical problem.
I like what I am reading
some of you are getting on the Tyron Smith train
I love the guy as you know
if we want to take the safe route and answer our biggest need other than FS, we take Smith
we take Smith we laugh we cry we light our cigars and pop bottles all night
then day two we go out and get us a S DE CB
now Aaron Williams would be f’n awesome at 40, but idk if he will be there
ive narrowed our options down to 4 guys
Tyron Smith the best OT in the draft, answers a need, we get a blue chip player and have the REST of the draft to play around with
Prince Amukamara we answer a huge need in the secondary and get a blue chipper, but OL might not be there at 40
JJ Watt I love this kid, we take him and I will go bannanas on this site, would be upset about OL, but I would be typing tears of joy on the cowboys website as I order my authentic Watt jersey
Brandon Harris the cornerback nobody talks about, remember Joe Haden? he went 7th overall to the Browns? Rob Ryan was there? Harris is Haden like, would make alot of sense
it would wake Jenkins ass up or he hits the sidelines, so its a win win
That is the best description of Chia I have read so far.
Wars are won in the trenches and we need some new big uglies!
Uh, don't think that's what the dunker dude was talking about.
If you can't fix it with a hammer, you've got an electrical problem.
correct
he was talking about having your eye on a guy
take shots haters, dont faze me
by Archie Barberio on Mar 5, 2011 10:16 AM CST up reply actions
C'mon, man
We’re joking around.
If you can't fix it with a hammer, you've got an electrical problem.
Think about how less stressful this whole pre-draft discussion would be...
if Anthony Spencer stunk it up for just one more game and we lost to the Eagles in week 17…
With the 6th pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, the Dallas Cowboys select… Patrick Peterson, Cornerback, Louisiana State
Did you guys hear the rumor that
Patrick Peterson was hanging out with Deion Sanders before declaring for the draft?
His mom was a prostitute, too. If I had a top 8 pick, I’d stay far, far away!
So pardon my disposition; why should I listen to a system that never listened to me?
by NICK L on Mar 4, 2011 9:05 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Somebody should start a Twitter rumor.
"The Angels are like the villain in the movie that isn't dead until he's been stabbed 150 times in the bath tub, yet he still might come back up one more time." - Eric Nadel
Uh huh. Your position is a matter of record
If you can't fix it with a hammer, you've got an electrical problem.
Have I been clear enough, Herr Wolf?
I worry about that sometimes….
Don't believe everything you think.
Good luck with that lineman....
I dont see anyway Jerry drafts a OL with the #9 pick….If we trade down to the 13th-15th pick maybe there is an outside chance. Otherwise, I dont see .
this is how I see it. not as emphatically, I could see it. but I don’t think OL is the most likely scenario.
by Fan in Thick and Thin on Mar 5, 2011 10:35 AM CST up reply actions
I'm not sure that there is a lineman that is really worth a top 10 pick this year anyways.
I’m not totally against it, and I don’t think that Jerry would be totally against it if he thinks that there is an OT that can slide in and start right away, but there are just so many needs for this team.
AFB Condensed- New name, same flavor.
Well I agree with all of you - that Jerry is unlikely to do it because
that’s how he’s been rolling. But I think he’s dead wrong. The teams that compete at the highest levels year in and year out are those who can control (to some degree) the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. As we all saw, it makes little to no difference having Romo (or Kitna) to throw the ball; Jason, Miles and Dez to catch it; and (name your favorite RB) to run it the line can’t execute. And no matter what DBs you bring in, they will all look like they suck until the QB has to throw before he’s ready.
Don't believe everything you think.
Dunkman...just hope there is a FA...
Thats the best chance of finding a lineman that can come in right away and play i believe.
I know you're probably right
and yet, that too failed Jerry. Holland? Barron? Those were Jerry’s answers? I don’t understand why, but I get the feeling that Jerry doesn’t value linemen. And that makes no football sense at all to me. As great as Troy, Michael and Emmitt were, they were able to do those things because for a time there Dallas had the best o-line in football.
Don't believe everything you think.
kossier, davis, colombo were all FA.
stop being histrionic..
by Fan in Thick and Thin on Mar 5, 2011 5:19 PM CST up reply actions
Well golly thanks FITAT
That was uncalled for.
I was speaking about the last couple of years. But even the three you name – most people think Jones overpaid for those guys, especially Davis, as a result of poor drafting. So no, I don’t hold out hope that Jones will “fix” the line through FA. In fact, when the majority of your line is brought in via FA, you have a systemic failure.
Don't believe everything you think.
That was uncalled for.
do you know what histrionic means?
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/histrionic
overly dramatic
That’s an accurate description.
But even the three you name – most people think Jones overpaid for those guys
what? Davis went to 3 straight pro-bowls. You actually see that as one of the all-time most successful FA signings.
Dallas didn’t overpay for Colombo or Kossier.
BTW, what’s gone amiss with your signature? Lost the strength of your convictions?
by Fan in Thick and Thin on Mar 6, 2011 8:06 AM CST up reply actions
Yeah I do know
but thanks for “teaching” me. Not sure who appointed you tutor to the unwashed masses, but I’ll be sure to nominate you for Man of the Year.
It’s not dramatic. I think Jerry has drafted poorly and acquired mediocre talent through FA and yet managed to pay a lot for the privilege. If you think Davis is an all-time great signing, you’re welcome to that opinion. I think he had one pretty good season and the rest has been mediocre to poor. Colombo has been showing serious signs of age for the past two seasons. Kosier is acceptable, but only when the help is available for those teams that are able to overpower him. Unfortunately help goes to the right side of the line too often.
My strength of conviction is fine. Here’s one. You’re condescending and rude. Yo should stick to relating to numbers where a poor personality doens’t matter.
Don't believe everything you think.
If you think Davis is an all-time great signing, you’re welcome to that opinion
not just my opinion. that’s the general consensus. link provided. you disagree with that, ok.
Colombo has been showing serious signs of age for the past two seasons. Kosier is acceptable
you said initially …
But even the three you name – most people think Jones overpaid for those guys
that’s just wrong. Davis was the only one of those three that got a big contract. Colombo was a bargain because of his injury history and he gave Dallas 3 or 4 good years. Kossier wasn’t a high priced FA either. Exaggerating the past is exactly what I mean about being ‘overly dramatic’.
by Fan in Thick and Thin on Mar 6, 2011 10:52 AM CST up reply actions
Holland isnt too bad....
I think worst case you see Holland start for either Davis or Kosier. Im sure that is there thinking. Derrick Dockery was cut from the Skins. Not sure if he is worth kicking the tires on….
Robert Gallery.
He sucks.
"The Angels are like the villain in the movie that isn't dead until he's been stabbed 150 times in the bath tub, yet he still might come back up one more time." - Eric Nadel
…the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
You mean Madden was right?
Sounds almost chicken-soupish to me.
Point After (rule change): You score, you kick. Debate welcomed.
I agree, but remember that we have the entire draft to find a good lineman (or two), not just pick #9.
Trading down from #9 and/or up from #40 is our best bet for landing a great lineman as well as getting great value to make sure we get good players for the rest of the draft.
Well, that'll be the question
I am pessimistic that this strategy will work because that’s the approach Jerry has taken over the last several years and the result has been a sh** line. The othe rproblem I have is that they 2nd and 3rd round guys will likely need a few years to develop. Based on last year’s performance they didn’t leave themselves that time frame to work under.
Don't believe everything you think.
I would be happy to trade down and pick up one of the top OT guys in the late teens.
But I don’t want to wait till after those guys are gone. The next teir all look to need a year or more to work on issues.
As for a guard, I would be fine waiting till round 3 or 4 to pick up a solid prospect for there.
Football Outsiders made a cogent point 2 years ago …
Mock drafts are a special sort of useless….
Mocks also spend too much time focusing on need while ignoring the reality of how and why organizations value players. Not to pick on a frequent target, but Pat Kirwan’s mock at NFL.com is a good example. Ignoring the likelihood of the Seahawks taking Matthew Stafford fourth overall when they’ve already invested so much in Matt Hasselbeck (or the Jaguars doing the same with Mark Sanchez when David Garrard’s contract is a year old), there are some moves that make absolutely no sense considering the style of play the organizations run, or their history in selecting players
I also think Jerry has been somewhat clear about his approach to OL … Houck can coach up anyone …
By re-signing Montrae Holland and trading for Alex Barron, Cowboys owner and general manager Jerry Jones said he has no more worried about his offensive line. While he is happy to add the veterans to the mix, most of the satisfaction comes from who will coach them.
Hudson Houck is entering his third year back with the Cowboys after stops in a couple of places following his first time through the organization.
Here’s what Jerry Jones had to say Wednesday about Houck and the line.
“This will give Hudson Houck a chance to do his work,” Jones said. "Hudson, I think, is one of the best coaches in the NFL. He should be doing good work. He’s the highest priced offensive line coach in the NFL, and I say that with all due respect to Hudson. “I told Alex when he came, I had a good visit with him, and told him he was real fortunate to have Hudson as a coach.”
but maybe this will be the year Jerry take an OL in the 1st round.
by Fan in Thick and Thin on Mar 4, 2011 9:20 PM CST reply actions
hopefully
because I think Smith is a blue chip prospect
plus the next 2 rounds you can play with without the pressure of a OL need
less pressure means more fun and easier ro pick
by Archie Barberio on Mar 4, 2011 9:36 PM CST up reply actions
Well a few years ago we were all saying Jerry never drafts kids from Arkansas.
Wars are won in the trenches and we need some new big uglies!
I know that it was my whole point. From never to 1!
Wars are won in the trenches and we need some new big uglies!
hopefully
Jerry’s rose-colored glasses regarding Houck broke this year. The best offensive line coach in the league, with a bunch of guys that Jerry wasn’t worried about, STUNK! If that performance doesn’t call for a change in philosophy, nothing will.
by greatwhitenorth on Mar 4, 2011 10:43 PM CST up reply actions
If Houck can get these players serviceable
Phil Costa, Robert Brewster, Montre Holland, Sam Young……Imagine what he could do with an actual talent like Tyron Smith….
formerly I draft the Cowboys!!!
Yes...I am Ironman....seriously my last name is ironman in German
though according to One.Cool. Customer. at BTB, I am Chris Greisen
Knowledge and Skill overcome superstition and Luck-Dawn Patrol
by I am Ironman!!! on Mar 4, 2011 10:55 PM CST up reply actions
If he can take a fourth rounder, Free, and turn him into one of the better LTs in the NFC, then I'd love to see what he can do with first round talent.
I believe in Houck. But then again, I’m an eternal optimist when it comes to my ’Boys.
idk
I think its more of Free being a actual talent at LT
I dont think Houck is all that, I think he might be extremely overrated
I cannot even name one OL in his tenure that he brought along
Free was drafted when Sparano was line coach I thought, I could be wrong about that
Im forgetting when we brought Houck back
either way, I think Houck isnt all that anymore, back in the day yes, but recently no
by Archie Barberio on Mar 4, 2011 11:27 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Houck was hired in 2008.
Free was selected in the 2007 draft. So a majority of Free’s career has been under Houck’s tutelage. I’m not sure, I just find it hard to believe that a coach can just lose his coaching skill. Players may stop listening to him (i.e. Phillips, imo) or trying as hard, but that’s not really a testament to the coach’s skill. I think he’s still a quality coach, we just had a down year along the offensive line.
REC'D
The moral of the story is you still need talent. You can put diamonds in a turd, but at the end of the day it’s still a turd.
"The Angels are like the villain in the movie that isn't dead until he's been stabbed 150 times in the bath tub, yet he still might come back up one more time." - Eric Nadel
Just because Da Vinci can paint a master piece with a tube sock does not mean he would not do better with some paint brushes!
Wars are won in the trenches and we need some new big uglies!
Exactly!
"The Angels are like the villain in the movie that isn't dead until he's been stabbed 150 times in the bath tub, yet he still might come back up one more time." - Eric Nadel
Tube socks and poop
that pretty much sums up this offensive line situation…
Don't believe everything you think.
by dunkman on Mar 5, 2011 9:00 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
but
I also question this, Houck has to be the guy giving input in the war room about the OL they take right?
by Archie Barberio on Mar 5, 2011 10:19 AM CST up reply actions
I would think so.
Which further solidifies my agreement with your previous post.
"The Angels are like the villain in the movie that isn't dead until he's been stabbed 150 times in the bath tub, yet he still might come back up one more time." - Eric Nadel
This would worry me a lot
if I understood WTF Jerry was trying to say.
Don't believe everything you think.
I also think Jerry has been somewhat clear about his approach to OL … Houck can coach up anyone …
This is why Jerry scares the hell out of me. If Houck can coach anyhow whey the hell has our OL been so terrible.
"Be great today" - Jason Garrett
Well maybe it just means that the line
would suck even more. I know that’s hard to imagine…
Don't believe everything you think.
Jerry hypes up everybody in the organization as "the best ever".
He has an uncanny ability to sell this idea to the fans, even when the results disagree with him.
"The Angels are like the villain in the movie that isn't dead until he's been stabbed 150 times in the bath tub, yet he still might come back up one more time." - Eric Nadel
I trade down..
Find a team in the 18 to 22 range..The 9th pick is worth 1350 points..trading down to this fevel gets you 500 points..that is a 2nd and a 3rd..
With the 1st round pick..get the best OL or DL available..
In scenario 2, Mark Ingram?
I’m not totally and completely sold of Felix Jones being a workhorse. Choice is decent, but we can trade him for something (assuming trades) – Ingram gives us a powerful back that we could definitely use.
Dezth Star - Beware his Force
But, personally
I say pick the best O-Lineman available – let’s keep Tony upright this year
Dezth Star - Beware his Force
I'm sure on Dallas board ...
they have one of the tackles in their top ten. So Jerry can feel relaxed that he does get value and he fills a need. Not a sexy alternative but might be what the doctor orders.
Tyron Smith seems to be the best. If a trade can happen then they will undoubtedly end up with another stud. Perhaps its NE who sees Green their and fears Washington will take him. I love JJ Watt and Kerrigan. Both are 2 high for the top 10 but mid 1st is not a reach for Watt.
I think their is no chance that JJ takes Prince. I saw some of the film and he in know way impressed me. But I didn’t look at all game film and perhaps others see something that I don’t.
Also if they are able to trade down they could end up with Tyron Smith , JJ Watt and their second rd. pick. Unbelievable draft.!!
I got this weird feeling Smith is going to be gone before any of our trade scenarios into the lower teens/early 20s
I bet he knocks his pro day out of the park and we take him at 9 unless Peterson somehow falls.
"Be great today" - Jason Garrett
Me neither
The more Jerry ignores the OL at the top of the draft the more we collapse down the stretch.
"Be great today" - Jason Garrett
I don't blame him if he doesn't.
Just because there are othe rneeds, BUT if Dallas goes the first 2 rounds without an OL I’d be very very sad.
AFB Condensed- New name, same flavor.
The problem is other than safety
Which no way you take one at 9, the other ‘needs’ have at least serviceable players there. Spencer is decent. Scandrick is decent. Hatcher could be decent. Brent could be a player.
OL? Ugh I don’t want to think of what we have behind our starters.
"Be great today" - Jason Garrett
Servicable for now, but you can get better than servicable.
And a badass DE could make all the defense alot better.
AFB Condensed- New name, same flavor.
I don't know man
DE’s in the 3-4 just gotta be solid. They aren’t usually big playmakers. They eat up blockers so that the LB’s can get all the glory.
"Be great today" - Jason Garrett
Not to mention this draft is pretty deep with 3-4 type D-linemen.
"The Angels are like the villain in the movie that isn't dead until he's been stabbed 150 times in the bath tub, yet he still might come back up one more time." - Eric Nadel
Smith might be gone by late teens/early 20s, but at least one of the top OT will still be there.
I think Carimi, Smith, Castonzo, Sherrod, or Ijalana would all be good fits for our OLine. I think Carimi is the best fit for us (even better IMO than Smith) because of his run blocking, mean streak on the field and ability to play both tackle positions (but I would start him at RT year one). Call me old school, but I don’t want “finesse guys” on my OLine.
An extra pick or two would allow us to get a C or G like Watkins, Wisnewski, or Moffitt to further strengthen our line while still being able to address other needs such as a starting caliber S.
+1 - Draft Strategy 101
Never fall in love with one player so much that you don’t make the best move. Yes, I hear everyone talking about how Smith is the best O-lineman. I’d love to have him. But in the vein of taking Smith at 9, or taking Carimi/Costanzo in the mid to late teens, I trade down, and end up with Watt or Kerrigan, AND Jimmy Smith, or Rahim Moore. Seems like a no-brainer.
If you can't fix it with a hammer, you've got an electrical problem.
Yep.
"The Angels are like the villain in the movie that isn't dead until he's been stabbed 150 times in the bath tub, yet he still might come back up one more time." - Eric Nadel
+1000
The Ohio State Buckeyes are your Sugar Bowl champions... and for the 7th year in a row Michigan still sucks.
by Blue Eyed Devil on Mar 5, 2011 9:42 PM CST up reply actions
Agreed.
I’ll take Carimi over all of them.
"The Angels are like the villain in the movie that isn't dead until he's been stabbed 150 times in the bath tub, yet he still might come back up one more time." - Eric Nadel
If we could get
Carimi/Costanzo, I’d be fine. But we’ve seen the results of that strategy for the past several years and it’s not pretty. I think the opposite of falling in love with a player is falling in love with your board. The board is a great tool when your team is solid across the board. When it has bigger gaps than Strahan’s dental work, they have to do what they can to fix it.
Don't believe everything you think.
Here's my problem.
It happens every year and it’s happening again. All I’m hearing is how Tyron Smith is the best lineman in the draft, over and over and over. Yet, the kid hasn’t played a down of NFL Football. Not one person on this planet can really say whether he will be a player or won’t be. Only time will tell. That being said, the trade down gives us other quality players in the first 50. While it may be true that Smith is the best Offensive Tackle in the draft, there’s no proof of that, and the drop off between he and the other top 3 or 4 is not significantly great.
If you can't fix it with a hammer, you've got an electrical problem.
Carolina considering taking Peterson #1 overall
From the Charlotte Observer, " the Panthers’ decision-makers are not sold on the idea of drafting a D-lineman at No. 1," and “the Panthers want an impact player – and health issues surrounding a couple of the top defensive linemen have called into question how much of an impact they might make.” So, “They’ll take long looks at the two players considered to be the top quarterbacks – Auburn’s Cam Newton and Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert.”
And though a cornerback has never gone No. 1, don’t be surprised if LSU CB Patrick Peterson gets in the conversation. Peterson had a strong showing in Indy and has the added bonus of being a talented – and willing – kick and punt returner.
Here’s hoping they go for a QB. Even if Peterson doesn’t end up making it to #9 or within reasonable trading distance, every QB taken early pushes down another good player to either take or trade down.
I think there are 6 true blue-chip players in this draft
guys who will go to multiple pro-bowls.
- Nick Fairly
- Patrick Peterson
- Von Miller
- Robert Quinn
- Julio Jones
- AJ Green
Given how stacked we are at WR and the historical bust rate of 1st round WRs I wouldn’t take them. So we are rooting for some WRs and QBs to be taken so that one of those 4 blue-chip players falls to us.
The Ohio State Buckeyes are your Sugar Bowl champions... and for the 7th year in a row Michigan still sucks.
by Blue Eyed Devil on Mar 5, 2011 9:49 PM CST up reply actions
Peterson is good, but Im not sure about the #1 overall pick good
They need a QB. Clausen is not the answer.
No kidding - but it's a commitment
When you draft a player #1 overall he is paid so much that he has to own that position for 3-4 years. You can’t fit in under a salary cap if you draft another QB high in the draft for another 3-4 years.
So you’d have to be very sure he’s your guy.
The Ohio State Buckeyes are your Sugar Bowl champions... and for the 7th year in a row Michigan still sucks.
by Blue Eyed Devil on Mar 5, 2011 9:50 PM CST up reply actions
Lombardi calls Peterson the "cleanest" player in the draft
scout talk for no flaws. no red flags. no real issues, on or off the field or medical. lowest risk. lowest bust factor. most likely to be sure starter for years. he’s the safest pick at #1. but having said that, QB is position that makes or breaks a franchise, and Carolina needs one, so hopefully they value the position enough that it makes up for the flaws in these QB prospects and they leave the cleanest player to fall….
It is all about the pass
Defend the receivers
Rush the passer
Block the pass rushers
Catch the passes
In this priority this year. Jerry will likely trade at least twice in this draft and end up wit h some help in all four areas.
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