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Draftmetrics - A study of draft picks from the last 20 years

8

Tanstaafl introduced me to this site (yup, he is more than just sarcasm and humor) and I wanted to share this with everyone. People tend to think that the chance of getting a great player anywhere during the draft is about the same. Draftmetrics did a study of the past 20 years of draft picks and provides some great info on their site. Here is something specifc to the OL that is worth considering. Draftmetrics have found that the likelihood of finding a 5year OL starter varies greatly depending on when they are drafted. They have groups split into 7 tiers (Group 1 is picks 1-13, Group 2 14-28, Group 3 29-48, Group 4 49-74, and so on.) Quick review of some of their findings for the OL and the chance of drafting a 5 year starter in each group: Group 1 – 88% Group 2 – 66.7% Group 3 – 58.7% Group 4 – 42.4% They found the chance of drafting a 5 year OL starter in the top 13 picks of the draft is more than double the chance of drafting one at picks 49-74 (mid 2nd round to early 3rd round). Just something to consider...

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