Hi again...I know I said that I wouldn't be doing another one of these but I feel the need to "flex my stat muscles" so to speak. In my last post I tied to explain how Demarco fits into the Offensive scheme of the Cowboys from a role standpoint. I hope there that I helped to explain why Dallas took him, and how his role will be defined on the team. A far as I can figure, he will be the Speed back that goes with Felix to sub in for him, plus will likely have a few plays designed for him and Jones together, to take advantage of the skill sets that each bring to the table.
Now in this post I want to look at the numbers aspect of the pairing. using MUrray's College production(slightly downgraded of course) and Felix's career numbers(via NFL.com) I will be estimating the kind of production we should expect from these two this year(assuming of course they get that stupid CBA thing out of the way...GRRRR)
Please bear in mind that I am not OCC or FiTaT, so my Stat skills are not the greatest. I will be using basic numbers for these so please keep that in mind...Look after the Jump for more....
First off lets set out the Ground rules... last year Dallas ran 1035 offensive plays, which works out to 64.6 plays per game, lets just call it 64 to stay on the conservative side shall we? Now of those plays Dallas passed on 576 of them for a 56/44 pass/run balance. So lets assume for a moment that these are similar to what Dallas will do this coming year, shall we?
Now Dallas has stated repeatedly that they wish to limit Felix to 15-20 "touches" per game, and I can see where they would do the same for Murray. So between the two We are looking at 30-40 "touches" per game. So lets look at Felix's Career stats:
2010 Dallas Cowboys 16 7 185 800 4.3 1 48 450 9.4 1
2009 Dallas Cowboys 14 1 116 685 5.9 3 19 119 6.3 0
2008 Dallas Cowboys 6 0 30 266 8.9 3 2 10 5.0 7
TOTAL 331 1,751 5.3 7 69 579 8.4 1
So as you can see Felix has done fairly well avg 5.3 yards per carry, and 8.4 yards per rec. NowaAs Murray is a Rookie, we don't know how he will fare at the NFL level, However we can use his college stats and "adjust" them a little to reflect the greater talent at the NFL level. So lets look at what Murray did in College:
So Murray was fairly good in College, avg 4.9 ypc and a stellar 10 yards per rec. Now here is what I want to do. As it is more than likely Demarco will not be putting up these kind of numbers in the NFL, what i am going to do is to take Demarco's avgs, and drop them the same amount that Felix has seen which is 2.4 ypc and 1.4 yards per rec. Which brings Demarco to a 2.5 ypc, while I admit not great remember this does not take into effect any extenuating circumstances either, ie O-line, talent level of team, etc..., and 8.6 ypr. So now that we have our baselines lets do some math.
Now if we assume that Dallas runs 60 offensive plays a game, and has a 55/45 pass/run balance, then Dallas should run the ball 27 times per game. Now if we assume that Dallas will split Felix and Murray carries equally, which gives them 13 carries apiece. Now using their "averages", we can figure that the Murray and Felix combination will get a combined 101.4 yards per game rushing which will give them 1622 yards for the season(assuming 16 games). Not to shabby. Yet that is not taking into account the receptions they will get. Now if we add in 5 catches apiece(which gives them 18 "touches"), then they will have 1360 yards receiving for the year. Which means the between the two backs they will obtain 576 "touches" for 2982 yards from scrimmage...to put that in perspective, Chris Johnson gained 2500 yards from scrimmage in 2009. So needless to say these 2 backs are going to be something special. And the Scary thing is...I was fairly conservative in these estimates. It is within reach for these two backs to gain 4000+ yards from scrimmage combined. Not saying they will, but they could.
The only thing holding them back is Dallas's O-line, which should be improved with Tyron Smith replacing Columbo, thus improving the running game. Also as Both Murray and Felix bring Similar skill sets, the defense can't focus on either one, which should help out the Running game. Now if these two perform like I think they are able, Dallas may be the first Offense to obtain 6000 yards in total offense. If we use standard point-yard value(7 points per 100 yards I think , I will edit if incorrect) then Dallas should score somewhere around 850 points.....that is ~50 points per game folks....I think that is enough to win a few games don't you think?
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