SB Nation Dallas Editor's Pick
In defense of Felix Jones and why Garrett might like Demarco Murray
by Fan in Thick and Thin on May 6, 2011 7:14 PM CDT
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Short post but this comes up again and again so I want to put it in a fanpost so I can just paste a link to the fanpost when it comes up.
I like Felix Jones. I like Felix a lot. So much that I think you can make the claim that Felix is as good as any RB drafted in 2008 not named Jamaal Charles. I know what you’re saying. You’re crazy FiTaT; CJ, Mendenhall, Ray Rice, and Matt Forte were all drafted in 2008. Felix is as good as those guys?
My answer: possibly. Why? Because receiving ability matters just as much … and maybe more than rushing ability.
A yard receiving is equal to a yard rushing. And if the defense doesn’t know if the RB will run or be used as a receiver the offense hasn’t tipped its hand making whatever is called harder to defend.
So I look at RBs based on their productivity per touch (where touches include rushing attempts and pass targets).
Yards per touch = (rushing yards + receiving yards) / (carries + receiving targets).
| Rushing Yards | Carries | Yds Per Carry | Rec Yds | Rec | Targets | Yds Per Target | Total Yards | Total Touches | Yds Per Touch | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | B | C=A/B | D | E | F | G=D/F | H=A+D | I=B+F | J=H/I | |
| Jamaal Charles | 1,290 | 208 | 6.2 | 407 | 42 | 64 | 6.4 | 1,697 | 272 | 6.2 |
| Felix Jones | 800 | 185 | 4.3 | 450 | 48 | 52 | 8.7 | 1,250 | 237 | 5.3 |
| Matt Forte | 1,069 | 237 | 4.5 | 547 | 64 | 70 | 7.8 | 1,616 | 307 | 5.3 |
| Ray Rice | 1,223 | 308 | 4.0 | 556 | 75 | 82 | 6.8 | 1,779 | 390 | 4.6 |
| Chris Johnson | 1,364 | 316 | 4.3 | 245 | 44 | 57 | 4.3 | 1,609 | 373 | 4.3 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 1,274 | 324 | 3.9 | 167 | 27 | 34 | 4.9 | 1,441 | 358 | 4.0 |
Everyone knows Chris Johnson is explosive right? Well Felix Jones produced twice as many yards per target in the passing game as Chris Johnson. Betcha didn’t know that did you? Felix also tied Miles Austin as the highest yards per target on Dallas.
To bring it back to Murray. I suspect that Garrett is aware of the benefits of a RB that’s a good receiver. He’s already got one of the best in the NFL and was probably happy to add another
Want to know why Garrett’s looking for more than Barber and Choice? Maybe it’s because Felix is almost twice as efficient in the passing game. Here’s how the Dallas RBs measure up.
| Rushing Yards | Carries | Yds Per Carry | Rec Yds | Rec | Targets | Yds Per Target | Total Yards | Total Touches | Yds Per Touch | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | B | C=A/B | D | E | F | G=D/F | H=A+D | I=B+F | J=H/I | |
| Felix Jones | 800 | 185 | 4.3 | 450 | 48 | 52 | 8.7 | 1,250 | 237 | 5.3 |
| Marion Barber | 374 | 113 | 3.3 | 49 | 11 | 15 | 3.3 | 423 | 128 | 3.3 |
| Tashard Choice | 243 | 66 | 3.7 | 109 | 17 | 22 | 5.0 | 352 | 88 | 4.0 |
Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.
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We all know Felix is great
in per-attempt yards, and thanks for the info on Felix as a passing threat. However, it’s hard to compare him to a back who is actually on the field and producing yards more of the time. Also, there’s a perception (it may or not be real) that Dallas has plenty of receiving targets: IF the line holds up, and IF the quarterback is able to find an open read, we will make yards that way, whether Felix is on the field or not. (Yards per attempt simply don’t take into account all those times that the quarterback is flat on his back, or is unable to find an open receiver and hence doesn’t “target” Felix.) What we want from a runnning back, in addition to this fine passing game, is someone that you can give the ball to and have them get you some positive yardage. I like Felix, but I don’t think he should be compared with running backs who will pound the ball past the yard of scrimmage on a far more regular basis.
However, it’s hard to compare him to a back who is actually on the field and producing yards more of the time.
There is value to eating up a lot of touches with average performance. That’s basically the logic behind Value Over Replacement Player analysis in baseball. Having a player that eats up a lot of touches at an average level has value because it’s keeping a below average player out of the lineup(what the replacement option is assumed to be). Ray Rice last year would be a good example of this. What I’m saying is that Demarco Murray is probably part of the solution to that problem (and also the highest rated player on Dallas’s board).
Also, there’s a perception (it may or not be real) that Dallas has plenty of receiving targets:
Like I said, Felix tied Miles Austin for best yards per target. Throwing to Felix is one of Dallas’s best plays.
IF the line holds up, and IF the quarterback is able to find an open read, we will make yards that way, whether Felix is on the field or not. (Yards per attempt simply don’t take into account all those times that the quarterback is flat on his back, or is unable to find an open receiver and hence doesn’t "target" Felix.)
I’d counter that a great way to slow down a pass rush is an effective screen game. Nothing like watching Felix repeatedly break off 50 yard TDs to make DCs think twice about blitzing.
What we want from a runnning back, in addition to this fine passing game, is someone that you can give the ball to and have them get you some positive yardage. I like Felix, but I don’t think he should be compared with running backs who will pound the ball past the yard of scrimmage on a far more regular basis.
Take a look at Mendenhall a guy that Cowboy’s fans frequently bring up. Mendenhall had 1,441 yards (rushing and receiving) on 358 touches. Felix had 1,250 yards (rushing and receiving) on 237 touches. In plain English, Mendenhall had 191 yards more than Felix but he took 121 additional plays to do it. I repeat, it took an extra 121 plays.
by Fan in Thick and Thin on May 7, 2011 9:17 AM CDT up reply actions
With all due respect. I think Chris Johnson is /has been a lot better than Felix Jones.
Yard per carry drops alot the more a player carries the ball. More than that it holds durability against a player. Tony Dorsett and Walter Payton averaged around 4.3 yard per carry during their careers , that doesn’t reflect how good they were
I agree
Football isn’t baseball where stats rule. You can’t just crunch an annoying amount of numbers and come up with an air tight case for anything.
Chris Johnson has been a better back than Felix for all the reasons listed above. Due to fear of injury, Felix has been used in a disproportionate amount of outside plays DESIGNED to get him into open space and bust the long gainer. Marion and Choice were used more for the bread and butter inside running most of the time.
Chris Johnson is more durable and picks his way through the interior of the defense just as well as the outside. Felix has much more receiving yardage but how much of that is from offensive style and designed play? In football, the KISS method works pretty well…there are too many variables that factor in.
I like Felix too…a lot…but so far he has proven to be injury prone and only fair at between the tackle running. Some of that can be remedied by the O-Line but I agree w/ an assessment made earlier…the attempt to trade up for Mark Ingram and eventual drafting of DeMarco is as much an indictment on our current stable of running backs as it is on his position on Dallas’ board.
DeMarco was drafted so we could run the same kinds of plays as we do w/ Felix while limiting Felix’s touches and to potentially take over the w"workhorse" load since he is a bigger back than Felix. I suspect that his zero injury Senior year (while getting more touches than ever before), clearance form our med staff, and newly found commitment to the weight room and stretching will make him sturdier in the NFL than he showed in his college years as a whole.
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Challenges conventional thinking with an esoteric statistic …. but how did you get 48/52 rec/target for Felix?
That’s a high ratio that the other RBs don’t get . Maybe its’ better to assume a team’s overall completion % should apply, also deducting yds as a % for sacks and interception return yds.
I guess I’m thinking Johnson deserves 4.3 × 140 extra carries vs. Felix. If you add 140 touches to Felix with 0 yards … then his yards per play = 3.4. Now THAT sounds like the Felix I know. I think his role gets to cherry pick a little bit the how a defense attacks our offense. Likewise I dont think he could survive carrying the ball 300+ times.
Maybe Murray is the solution.
but how did you get 48/52 rec/target for Felix?
the reception data is everywhere (espn, nfl, etc)
this website has the target data.
http://www.fftoday.com/stats/playerstats.php?Season=2010&GameWeek=&PosID=20
by Fan in Thick and Thin on May 7, 2011 8:55 AM CDT up reply actions
Running back coach Skip Peete saw that coming
and argued in the offseason that Felix Jones would benefit most in the receiving game from getting more snaps:
“You utilize him and try to create certain matchups against outside linebackers or safeties where there’s a speed factor as far as his advantage to create a mismatch. A lot of times you look at guys and 60 of their catches are on check down routes. Then they turn and create a play from a simple two-yard pass, so just trying to get him the ball any kind of way we can is obviously going to increase his receiving yards and catches.”
by One.Cool.Customer on May 7, 2011 3:19 AM CDT reply actions
Hmmm...
Gameplanning. Trick’s coming up with it, then implementing. Wait, let’s call it a football game.
…so just trying to get him the ball any kind of way we can is obviously going to increase his receiving yards and catches."Obviously getting it to him, or any player, will increase such things. Duh, Skip. Trying(?!), not so much. Failure sucks. And puts a dent in that “increase”.
Enough with the trying, get to the doing, guys. You’re Cowboys after all. Act like it. Be it.
So we should start Miles Austin at RB?
Based on this method, he might be the best running back of all time.
by Baked Potato Soup on May 7, 2011 4:41 AM CDT reply actions
I am not understanding your comment here. Are you in disagreement with pass catching being an important part of a RB’s game?
Smiles ahead
by accidental innuendo on May 7, 2011 8:59 AM CDT up reply actions
I am in disagreement that average per catch is as important as average per carry.
The fact is, the position is still running back, not wide receiver. There is more to it than yards per touch, otherwise, why not just have all receivers?
by Baked Potato Soup on May 7, 2011 10:58 PM CDT up reply actions
A running back who is a great runner is much more valuable than a running back who is a great receiver. Running backs who get yards on the ground eat up the clock and punish a defense. No incomplete passes either.
Well felix only dropped 4passes..
Tony Romo 2011's League's Most Valuable Player
by thebigham on May 7, 2011 7:04 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
it’s even a little better than that. There were only 4 passes that were targetted at Felix that weren’t receptions. Felix could have zero drops if some of the targets were uncatchable.
by Fan in Thick and Thin on May 7, 2011 9:24 AM CDT up reply actions
A running back who is a great runner but cannot catch a pass or passblock is next to useless on more than half of the offensive plays.
by One.Cool.Customer on May 7, 2011 8:29 AM CDT up reply actions
Thank you for mentioning pass-blocking
It does not get enough attention as a vital component of a tailback’s skill set. And much more so if the player is found wanting as a receiver.
Smiles ahead
by accidental innuendo on May 7, 2011 8:52 AM CDT up reply actions
A running back who is a great runner is much more valuable than a running back who is a great receiver
that is the attitude of a lot of football fans. For me, a yard is a yard however it’s gained.
by Fan in Thick and Thin on May 7, 2011 9:22 AM CDT up reply actions
They are both needed, but the passing game cannot work without an effective running game
And this has been Garrett’s Achille’s heel. It may be due to an overreliance on stats like this.
If RB’s avg. 4 yards a carry and 7 or 8 yards a pass, then why bother handing it off ever? According to the
“a yard is a yard” philosophy, just maximize yards gained, and you’ll win. Pass pass pass.
Well, if that were true, then the NFL would be full of Houston Cougars, Run and Shoot, offenses, passing the ball 80% of the time.
I’d argue that those 4 yards on the ground are more valuable than the 8 through the air because they allow the QB and passing game to work. If you just pass first pass second pass third and don’t keep the D honest with a serious running threat, they’ll just go to a nickel, put in a bunch of speedy DB’s, go after the QB and shut you down.
You have to be unpredictable, and while the passing game is the key to success in the NFL, it still goes back to the rushing game first. A real, serious running threat, not just a draw play here and there. Unless you present that threat, and use play-action off of it, defenses will attack your QB and shut down the passing game-screens and all.
And that’s without even going into the arguments for the running game involving the mental aspect (physical domination), Time of Possess. , the advantage to your OLinemen, the advantage to your own defense being off the field more, and wearing down an opposing team’s defense.
When you need that short yardage, or that TD from the 2 yard line, you can’t just suddenly jump into that mentality, you have to have played like that the whole game. Any wonder this team struggles with that?
To Garrett’s credit, he did do this a lot more after becoming HC instead of OC. We’ll never know why, but he suddenly discovered a running game. Lo and behold, backup QB Kitna looks just as good as Romo! Well, just imagine how good Romo could be if Garrett grew some balls for a running game, used playaction, and took the whole load off of his shoulders.
Pessimists say the cup is half-empty, while optimists say it's half-full. Well, isn't it both? Realist Larry, 2009
by Realist Larry on May 7, 2011 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions
Eric Dickerson or Rodger Craig? Adrian Peterson or Reggie Bush?
In fact Reggie Bush is a better receiver than he is a runner. He is even a pretty good receiver . That doesn’t prevent him from being considered a major disappointment.
by Jonathan Stern on May 7, 2011 7:43 PM CDT up reply actions
there’s something amusing about the players you chose. See it?
by Fan in Thick and Thin on May 8, 2011 8:18 AM CDT up reply actions
Bingo
Especially in light of the argument being made that rushing has all these benefits that maybe aren’t captured by the stats but help you win. Amusingly the ‘rushers’ chosen have piled up a lot of meaningless yards without winning anything while the ‘receiving’ RBs who suck rushing the ball have 4 Super Bowl rings.
by Fan in Thick and Thin on May 9, 2011 11:15 AM CDT up reply actions
To be fair, Craig was hardly a scrub.
He rushed for 1500 yards one year when SF won it all, and the other 2 years, he was part of a rotation. In 84, he was the number 2 back and rushed for over 600 yards while the 1 back rushed for 1200+. In 88 he rushed for 1500 and his fullback added 400 more. Even in 89 he had 1000+ and Rathman had 300+.
And Bush was the #2 or 3 back for the Saints, rushing for just under 400 while Bell and Thomas combined for 1400+. It seems like rushing yardage might have been important to those teams.
Also, there was this guy, Emiitt something or other, he had a lot of rushing yards and might have won some titles.
by Baked Potato Soup on May 9, 2011 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions
I looked at that in a post last year
rbs Mike Bell and Pierre Thomas (their leading rushers) had 62% of their 319 carries in the second half last year.
their top 3 rbs Bush, Thomas and Bell combined for 163 first half rushes. Drew Brees in 15 games had 288 first half passes. Ignoring that missing 16th game for brees, thats a 64% pass ratio in the first half. And thats an average. Meaning some games were above that, some below. When Garrett does that people go ballistic
The Saints were absolutely, undoubtedly a pass first team. They ran the ball well in the second half, but teams were in no way focused on stopping their run when the games were in doubt (which was obviously more often to be the case in the first half).
That's the problem, though.
Those guys were running down the clock when the Saints had the lead. In comparison, the Cowboys struggled to hold the lead last year because they couldn’t do that. If Felix can’t do it, I doubt Felix Lite can do it either. So we spent a 3rd rounder on a backup that doesn’t really add anything to the team.
by Baked Potato Soup on May 11, 2011 3:41 PM CDT up reply actions
just read this. Very relevant to this discussion
by Fan in Thick and Thin on May 10, 2011 6:43 PM CDT up reply actions
Doesn't that indicate we over drafted Murray?
by Baked Potato Soup on May 11, 2011 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions
I’m not following.
Dallas used the 71st pick. They didn’t the #9 pick on a RB.
That suggests that teams don’t need to kill themselves to get a RB but it doesn’t say they don’t need to draft RBs at all.
Football Outsiders had some similar research … I don’t know where the cut-off is. I’m definitely glad Dallas didn’t trade up to get Mark Ingram.
This week, Arian Foster and Peyton Hillis finished atop our statistical rankings at running back. So the two best performances at their position came from an undrafted free agent and a seventh-round pick, respectively. Neither was expected to be his team’s starting running back heading into the season, but it seems absurd now to consider the possibility that either might lose his job anytime soon.
It’s nothing new, of course, to see either back toward the top of the running back charts; Foster leads the league in rushing DYAR, while Hillis ranks sixth. And it’s certainly not the first time we’ve seen unheralded backs step up and make a dramatic impact.
Each year, the rushing leaderboards are littered with guys who didn’t need a pedigree to get to the top of the charts. Among the top 20 rushers by DYAR this season are six players who were either drafted in the seventh round or went undrafted; there are only four such quarterbacks and three such receivers in the passing top 20.
That jibes with every bit of research we’ve ever done at Football Outsiders; whether it’s rate of return on a draft pick, the effects of injury on an offense, or whether spending money produces a return, investing valuable resources into running backs isn’t all that likely to return a feature back. And yet, despite the existence of players like Hillis and Foster — guys available for peanuts during the offseason — teams still pour millions into their backfield.
by Fan in Thick and Thin on May 11, 2011 5:36 PM CDT up reply actions
If the average draft slot of the starting backs is 4th round,
Then wasting a 3rd rounder on a backup is over drafting. I don’t think anyone has a problem with Murray as a player, it’s where he was taken. That’s what this all boils down to, why was this player selected so early when starting RBs are regularly found in the 7th round and through UDFA. Why not go after a position that is not so easily stocked, and get your backup RB later?
by Baked Potato Soup on May 12, 2011 12:34 AM CDT up reply actions
If the average draft slot of the starting backs is 4th round,
Average! To get an average of 4th round, some RBs are drafted earlier than the 4th round, some are drafted later than the 4th round.
Anyway, I don’t think Murray is a backup.
Here are things I think are almost certain.
Barber gets released. Felix Jones gets injured for some period of time. That leaves you with Choice and Lonyae Miller as your only RBs. Does that sound like a good plan to you?
by Fan in Thick and Thin on May 12, 2011 7:18 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm good with Choice.
If you come in when the starter gets hurt, you are a backup. We drafted Murray too high for the position that he plays, and especially for the role he will fill.
If Doug Free or Tyron Smith get hurt, we are left with Alex Barron. Does that sound like a good plan to you? Of course, you can’t have a pro bowler at every backup position. That’s why you don’t waste 3rd rounders on backups for a position that has been proven, in the links you provided, to be easily filled with later round picks and free agents.
by Baked Potato Soup on May 12, 2011 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions
A few things
Barron is not on the roster – wooohooo!
Secondly, you use the term backup as someone that comes in if someone is injured. That is very different than a 3rd down RB or the second RB in a RB committee that is involved week-in week-out with the offense.
Finally, you may be good with Choice, but it is becoming pretty clear that Garrett isn’t good with Choice.
"I am a true believer. Anthony Spencer will have 7 or more sacks in 2011 and Stephen Bowen can ball!" - Kegbearer
"Leadership is a matter of having people look at you and gain confidence, seeing how you react. If you're in control, they're in control." - Tom Landry
thats what I was going to say
A 3rd down back will see significant time. Especially when you consider Murray is pretty much exactly what you want out of a back in the 2 minute offense, of which teams play an abnormally high % of their offensive plays due to the increased speed, clock stoppage and timeouts.
A 3rd down back/two minute drill guy will see a couple hundred plays a year easy. And yes, teams do use top 3 round picks on 3rd down backs/2nd rbs – just look at this draft. The Pats picked two in the top 3 rounds I believe.
A swing tackle meanwhile can be all or nothing. Without an aging veteran starter, the value at that position isn’t very strong. Sam Young may be what we need there.
Now, as for a guard, its hard to see the value of Murray over a full time starter. But don’t tell 5blings I said that.
Murray looks like a capable player, and I think he will get significant playing time by the end of year 1.
I wouldn't be suprised to see Barber and Choice both gone this year.
And have our RB’s as Felix, Murry and Miller.
As an aside, I’m quite impressed with Forte’s stats. He was a big weapon in Cutler’s arsenal last year.
Honestly, those are the types of numbers we should be expecting from Felix next year even with Murray in the fold.
Smiles ahead
by accidental innuendo on May 7, 2011 8:56 AM CDT reply actions
If...
“A yard receiving is equal to a yard rushing.”
…this has to be pointed out to a football fan… – sheesh.
Equal should be a clue to anyone. Yard, inch, whatever. Even if they can’t tell time.
That's missing part of the point
If a run or pass were equally available then it seems strange that all these backs have many more carries than targets when they all avg more with passes. Obviously there is a reason they can’t get more passes. My guess is that part of a good screen game is the element of surprise. So you cant equal a yd running w a yard passing.
However, thats not to say Felixs receiving prowess isn’t valuable. It just gives a diff dynamic. More big plays and less steady always available yards.
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by cowboysuberfan on May 7, 2011 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions
When it's 3rd and a yard, do you really care how it's picked up?
I don’t. Whatever works at that point in time, against whichever opponent, how they’re playing, how we’re playing, whoever, however, whatever. Just get the yard.
A yard is a yard. Their yard or ours.
The rest’s nitpicky nonsense, stat, strategy and otherwise. Not trying to be a tool to you, uberfan, just want these guys not to have excuses, no complicating the objective with how’s and all the rest, keep it simple for these morons till they can do the simplest thing. Like pick up a first down. Especially when we need it. All the way down field, then unable to pick up the one that puts it over the goal line. Ridiculous. One, I see one guy that I have the slightest faith in pulling off a 1st down on this team. Even then, it’s iffy. Get pretty, cute and finessed with it later. Back to basics with this crew of misguided, mislead, wandering in the wasteland pinheads. Top to bottom. No exceptions. None. When they prove they can handle the simple task, then move on to the more complicated ones.
Gentlemen, this is a football. Look up the reference if you’re not familiar with it. Go from there.
+ ten million
SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO sick of 10+ play 85 yard drives with 0-3 points to show. It breaks my heart.
It is the little things…
To this day I have no idea what that woman was singing about. Like, literally no idea. I don’t know what a hollaback girl is. But I have to imagine it is a foul, disease ridden thing that wears too much make-up just to cover up the fact that it is a forty-seven year-old fish dog. – Family guy
by BlueNSilverBlood on May 8, 2011 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions
I like this post, very thought provoking with minimal heavy use of complex stat formulas that you are known to use.
I am a big fan of Felix and he is defn underrated by most Cowboy fans. Thanks for this proof to what I have been seeing.
Tony Romo 2011's League's Most Valuable Player
Another interesting stat about Felix
He has 450 receiving yards on 48 receptions. And 562 yards after catch.
On average, Felix gets the ball a little over two yards behind the line of scrimmage. The 8.7 yards per target that FiTaT quotes above are technically correct, but because Jones has to carry the ball for two yards before he even gets to the line of scrimmage (on average) he actually averages 10.8 total yards per target. Very impressive.
by One.Cool.Customer on May 7, 2011 11:47 AM CDT reply actions
He is a menace
he gets the ball behind the line of scrimmage, and with our wrs taking attention away, hes a tough cover.
I think Garrett wants more of this with Murray, who also is a better downfield receiver.
I have a Question OCC
couldn’t you apply that to Carries as well? Near as I can tell a RB nearly always takes a hand-off 2-3 yds behind the line of scrimmage….
With the 9th Pick Dallas Selects Tyron Smith...Romo Weeps in Joy, and Bennet says"I might get to go out in the Pass Pattern now!"
by I am Ironman!!! on May 9, 2011 7:01 PM CDT up reply actions
In principle yes
But firstly, I don’t have the data to do that, and secondly it doesn’t make a lot of sense because every run starts in the backfield. There are no runs that start beyond the line of scrimmage. In the passing game though, while most passes are caught beyond the LOS, some of them are caught behind the LOS, particularly by RBs.
by One.Cool.Customer on May 10, 2011 12:46 AM CDT up reply actions
FTT
you’re completely right. I believe that the Murray pick was completely directed towards Barber and Choice, and in no way meant to cast aspersions on Felix.
+1
"I am a true believer. Anthony Spencer will have 7 or more sacks in 2011 and Stephen Bowen can ball!" - Kegbearer
"Leadership is a matter of having people look at you and gain confidence, seeing how you react. If you're in control, they're in control." - Tom Landry
Indeed
I have suggested elsewhere that Murray was drafted precisely because he is like Felix—and so Garrett can run a similar offense regardless of who is in the game. That’s not the case with Barber and/ or Choice.
by rabblerousr on May 12, 2011 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Good stuff FTT
Felix is the Garrett style RB his offensive plans require. Murray is as well. I think we will often see him motioning out to the slot. Garrett does not run a power run game and would like one cut home run hitters he can also get in open space and in the passing game. I am excited to see the Felix-Murray combo at work.
"I am a true believer. Anthony Spencer will have 7 or more sacks in 2011 and Stephen Bowen can ball!" - Kegbearer
"Leadership is a matter of having people look at you and gain confidence, seeing how you react. If you're in control, they're in control." - Tom Landry
Nice writeup, but I don't agree with everything.
I don’t agree with the assertion that Felix is as good as some of other backs you listed based on yards per touch. There are a lot of things that basic stats can’t tell us in football.
1. You don’t consider what kind of impact, or in particular, what kind of diminished returns we might expect if the number of touches increased.
2. All yards per touch are not created equal. Does three rushing yards on 1st and 10 have equal value to 3 rushing yards on 3rd and 2? Likewise, does 6 receiving yards on 3 and 10 equal 6 receiving yard on 1st and 10?
3. How much of the offensive load is a player being asked to carry? Or in other words, how focused is the defense to stopping this particular player. Are they stacking eight in the box? Are they worried about the pass first?
4. Can the guy put the ball in the endzone? Does he have the ability to take one to the house from 50 yards? Can he get it in against a GL defense from 3 yards? It’s very important for a running back to have a nose for the endzone.
That being said, Felix is a good fit for our offense in a lot of ways. Garrett does a good job getting him the ball in situations that allow him to produce. And I agree that Murray will be very productive in this offense as well.
by honkytonkbaseball on May 7, 2011 3:49 PM CDT reply actions
Imagine a lineup next year where we have in the game Miles, Dez, Witten, Felix and Murry.
Who does the D put on all 5 of those?
Great article.
Murray is a much different type of player than Felix. I remember it was either this year or last, OU had alot of WR’s go down and they split Murray out and just made him their slot WR.
His hands are on a different level than Felix’s ever was in college.
AFB Condensed- New name, same flavor.
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