NFC East QB's: Romo, Vick, Manning And Others In The 4th Quarter

by One.Cool.Customer on Jun 14, 2011 5:00 PM CDT in Dallas Cowboys General

Yesterday, Mike Sando from ESPN's NFC West blog ran a story in which he used LeBron James' perceived lack of 'clutchness' against the Mavs as a starting point for a look at the 'clutchness' of NFC West quarterbacks.

ESPN Dallas' Todd Archer used that story to look at Tony Romo's performance in clutch situations. Archer found that over his career, Romo has averaged a 101.5 passer rating in the fourth quarters of games with a score differential of seven points or less.

He also writes that since 2006, only Peyton Manning has a higher rating in comparable situations (103.7) than Romo. The only blemish on Romo's stats was the 2010 season (69.7) in which he dipped under 100 for the first time in his five NFL seasons.

But is there really such a thing as 'clutchness', and how would the NFC East QBs fare in such a comparison?

The 'clutch quarterback' is not a formally defined term, but in common usage it refers to a quarterback who makes important positive plays for his team at key moments and in the tightest situations. Traditionally, 'clutchness' was defined simply by looking at the raw number of comebacks led by a QB in the fourth quarter or in overtime. More recently - and because the ESPN stats provide those splits - it has become 4th Quarter QB rating with the score +/- 7 points: late game, high pressure situations. If not now, when?

Of course, there are other splits one could look at, like QB rating in the last two minutes of each half, 3rd and long conversions or red zone passer rating. All of these are high pressure situations when QB's can show their supposed 'clutchness', but we'll stick with the 4th quarter, +/- 7 points passer rating for this post.

All of this of course assumes that there are quarterbacks who are able to elevate their level of play in specific situations. Why they would choose to lower their performance at other times is beyond me of course, but let's look at the facts nevertheless.

A little under two years ago, FootballOutsiders looked at whether there is actually such a thing as a clutch quarterback, i.e. a quarterback who always plays better in the fourth quarter of close games.

After looking at both passer rating and DVOA between a quarterback’s performance in the clutch and his performance overall, other than Eli Manning (in Aaron Schatz’s words "but that’s probably a fluke"), no other quarterback has consistently shown higher passer ratings or DVOA in ‘clutch situations’. Basically, if a QB is good, he’ll play good in the clutch. If he is bad, he’ll play bad. Over time things even out. From the FO article in ESPN the Magazine:

"What do Santa and clutch QBs have in common? They don’t exist.

Patriots fans had no fear. Their team trailed Buffalo 24-13 with 5:32 left in the first Monday night game of 2009 and sure enough Brady led them from behind for the victory. It was just the latest example of how Brady raises his game when it matters most.

Or does he? Patriots Nation might be surprised that Brady’s passer rating in 2007 was 8.3 pts lower in the clutch (when the score was within 7 pts in the 4th qtr or OT – in fact in 2006 it was 21.8 pts lower and and 27.4 pts lower in 2005

Now it’s time to retire the myth of the clutch QB. We looked at it and there is no year to year correlation when the game is on the line. Good QBs are generally good QB’s in the clutch – meaning their QB ratings stay relatively the same…bad QB’s such as Kyle Orton remain bad QBs".

In essence, FO found that good QBs are good regardless of situation. And what we commonly think of as 'clutch QBs' are players who are usually pretty good in no-clutch situations as well.

Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are very good in the 4th quarter of close games, but they're just as good in the 2nd quarter of not-so-close games. Good players play well in clutch situations not because they have some ability to elevate their talent in "the clutch," but because they are good players, and their average statistical level of performance is very good. Most statistics with decent sample size indicate that players perform about as well in "the clutch" as they do the rest of the time - especially in team sports where it takes a lot more than a single player to win.

But since we've opened this particular can of worms, let's look at how how the NFC East QBs fared in "4th quarter, +/- 7 points" situations last year and over their career, as measured by passer rating. Couple of notes up front: the "4th quarter, +/- 7 points" split is only available back to 2006, so any data for Manning, Vick, Grossman or Kitna beyond that is not included.

Kolb only accumulated stats in that particular situation in 2010. Also, I'm listing McNabb because until further notice, he's still with the Redskins. Finally, Vick's 'career' clutch numbers only include the 2006 and 2010 seasons. I'm sure he had a number of clutch situations in between, but not on the football field.

	Career		2010
QB	Passer Rating	Rating 4th Q, +/-7 pts	Attempts	Rating 4th Q, +/-7 pts
Tony Romo	95.5	101.5	55	69.7
Donovan McNabb	85.7	76.7	87	59.2
Rex Grossman	81.2	67.7	27	44.7
Eli Manning	80.2	93.4	27	77.1
Michael Vick	80.2	96.2	29	138.7
Jon Kitna	77.5	69	28	93.9
Kevin Kolb	73.2	n.a.	29	29.8

Romo's fourth quarter numbers are largely in line with his overall numbers, and 2010 likely was an aberration, as it hopefully was for the whole team.

McNabb's, Kitna's and Grossman's passer rating in close fourth quarters are all between 8 and 14 points below their career average. Manning's fourth quarter clutch numbers are higher than his career numbers, but 2010 brings his numbers a little more down to earth, just like Romo's numbers came down last year. While Michael Vick had a truly outstanding year in 2010, his only other year in this analysis is 2006 - where he had a 61.0 rating in close fourth quarter situations. Which Vick will we see in 2011?

As for Kevin Kolb, I hear the Eagles want a first round pick for him.

Really?

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Comments

I’ll tell you what I have on my to do list.

Produce what a random distribution would look like so we can compare the actual results to what a completely random result would look like. Then we’d have some basis for judging how similar/dissimilar from random the actual results are.

by Fan in Thick and Thin on Jun 14, 2011 5:14 PM CDT reply actions

right behind getting the run/pass balance for +/- 7 points

by Fan in Thick and Thin on Jun 14, 2011 5:17 PM CDT up reply actions

Null Hypothesis Testing

Is the standard statistical method to answer the question of whether two groups of data are significantly different. It typically uses the T-test.

It’s pretty easy to do, once you set up the problem and clarify the conventions.

by kindablue on Jun 14, 2011 8:20 PM CDT up reply actions

clutch means this

Less than two minutes to go and you take your team down the field for either the critical TD or FG. And you do it regularly when it matters. By that definition there are only a few in history like Roger, Montana, Elway and a few others.

by burmafrd1944 on Jun 14, 2011 5:40 PM CDT reply actions

You heard it here first folks

don’t play good when it doesn’t matter

by Specific on Jun 14, 2011 5:59 PM CDT up reply actions

best comment I’ve seen on Montana …

The first problem is defining “clutch, when the game is on the line.” E.g., Joe Montana threw that famously clutch pass for that come-from-behind win in the NFC championship game. But before then he threw three picks to put his team behind. Was the game not on the line when he threw the three picks? What part of a close Championship Game is not clutch?

by Fan in Thick and Thin on Jun 14, 2011 6:23 PM CDT up reply actions

Why do you say these guys are clutch?

Answer: emotions

Was Elway a clutch QB his entire career? Or did he become a clutch QB near the end when the moon and stars were aligned with Jupiter and Mars?

As for Staubach: How clutch was he when he played against the Steelers twice in losing Super Bowl efforts? I would suggest that the main reason he is considered as a clutch QB is because his comebacks were in high-profile games—games on national TV during an age when far fewer NFL contests were televised nationally.

I am not saying these three guys weren’t good QBs, but rather, their feats have become legendary with the passage of time, just as most legends seem to grow. I am going to toss out the name of a QB who, IMO, was on a par with, or superior to, any of the three you mention: Terry Bradshaw. What statistics do I have to prove it? None. Just my memory of how he seemed to own the Cowboys.

by RenoCowboy on Jun 16, 2011 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions

very nice post

i guess is all about perception and then how an either well based or baseless point of view stands because media repeat it like 100 times or credibility, or wahtever. then this perception will turn into an unquestionable truth or at least into a major reference, this is the reason why people think joe flacco is elite haha

by ratware on Jun 14, 2011 7:11 PM CDT reply actions

Who thinks that?

Other than Ravens fans?

by Baked Potato Soup on Jun 14, 2011 7:20 PM CDT up reply actions

i have meet a lot people who believe it

many non ravens fans, or like matt ryan being already elite and better than romo, there’s also a lot of folks who think that just because they have heard some good comments about ryan on tv

by ratware on Jun 15, 2011 12:05 AM CDT up reply actions

what's really sad is that the iggles will actually get a 1st rounder for Klob

Keep Jose Reyes, Trade Fred Wilpon

by BigBlueIntervention on Jun 14, 2011 8:02 PM CDT reply actions

I Doubt Clutch Exists

Most of the opinion are anecdotal, and I’m not even sure anyone could come up with a clear definition of clutch.

Bill James came to a similar conclusion many years ago with baseball players. Finding evidence to support clutch behavior was essentially impossible.

by kindablue on Jun 14, 2011 8:25 PM CDT reply actions

I also think the term is an invention of the media

If a guy at this level plays well, the incrementally higher level of pressure is unlikely to matter. If he plays well, he plays well. If he doesn’t, he probably won’t, but he might, as a matter of random chance.

Don't believe everything you think.

by dunkman on Jun 14, 2011 9:20 PM CDT up reply actions

I don't think the Eagles will get a first for Kolb

Rumor was that they had an offer of a first before the draft started, but people say that was a 1st in NEXT YEAR’S DRAFT. Which would have been a second or early third in this year’s draft. If they want a first rounder, they will probably need to surrender a second rounder along with him to get a 1st rounder, and even that would be a late 1st rounder.

"I firmly believe that any man's finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle, victorious." –Vince Lombardi

by ProBowlFactory on Jun 14, 2011 9:37 PM CDT reply actions

"I'm sure he had a number of clutch situations in between, but not on the football field."

LMAO

This is why you are the best OCC.

by Damnsammit on Jun 14, 2011 11:12 PM CDT reply actions

My bad. I actually missed that first go round.

Thanks for the point out and..lol OCC!

I started out with nothing and still have most of it left

by Benthere on Jun 14, 2011 11:19 PM CDT up reply actions

I'm gonna guess that career 4th Q rating includes 2010

which brings the career number down a bit. Which, in turn, puts him in a dead heat with Peyton Manning in clutch situations…up until that aberration of a season last year. As it is, a 101.5 in clutch situations is an outstanding number. The only thing missing from this article OCC, is ‘Thank you, Tony!’ Our little UDFA QB smokes all those guys, including two first players taken in the draft.

If you can't fix it with a hammer, you've got an electrical problem.

by White Wolf on Jun 15, 2011 6:02 AM CDT reply actions

Amen

by RenoCowboy on Jun 16, 2011 11:15 AM CDT up reply actions

Romo is the Troy Tulowitzki of QB's...

:-)

"Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?"

by 5Blings on Jun 15, 2011 10:17 AM CDT reply actions

It’s all about context with Kolb in the 4th.

http://www.bleedinggreennation.com/ - Eagles
http://bloggingthebeast.com/ - NFC East

by JimmyK on Jun 15, 2011 12:00 PM CDT reply actions

You mean

can he repeat this accomplishment for the Cardinals?

Actually I think Kolb is better than this board gives him credit for. He is just a risk, a lot like Schaub was coming out of Atlanta.

Don't believe everything you think.

by dunkman on Jun 15, 2011 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions

Well, I read an article once by a Miami writer that did a whole piece on Kolb’s “4th quarter woes,” who clearly never saw Kolb play. So i have some experience making sense of Kolb’s eyebrow-raising 4th quarter numbers. Here were two of Kolb’s picks in the 4th quarter:

Week 17 vs you guys – 4-19-PHI 11 (:40) (Shotgun) 4-K.Kolb pass deep right intended for 16-C.Hall INTERCEPTED by 41-T.Newman at PHI 45. 41-T.Newman to PHI 45 for no gain (16-C.Hall). That was a desperation bomb at the end of the game on 4th and 19 in a meaningless game with 2nd stringers.

Week 4 vs Redskins – 1-10-WAS 32 (:04) (Shotgun) 4-K.Kolb pass deep right intended for 81-J.Avant INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Hall at WAS -9. Touchback. This was the Hail Mary that Jason Avant dropped (it was actually a gogeous ball by Kolb), and the ball landed softly into DeAngelo Hall’s hands to end the game.

So there’s 2 “Hail Mary picks” in just 29 attempts. 2 picks in 29 attempts are going to destroy a QB rating. t’s not really a valid stat for Kolb in this case. And I suspect OCC knows this and threw that in there just to get a rise out of me, haha.

http://www.bleedinggreennation.com/ - Eagles
http://bloggingthebeast.com/ - NFC East

by JimmyK on Jun 15, 2011 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions

And I suspect OCC knows this and threw that in there just to get a rise out of me, haha.

My brilliant plan – exposed and thwarted.

by One.Cool.Customer on Jun 15, 2011 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions

You don’t think that you could alter everyone’s numbers in this way?

by Baked Potato Soup on Jun 15, 2011 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions

No, I don’t.

http://www.bleedinggreennation.com/ - Eagles
http://bloggingthebeast.com/ - NFC East

by JimmyK on Jun 15, 2011 5:03 PM CDT up reply actions

You’re right. Kolb is probably the only QB to ever throw a Hail Mary INT.

by Baked Potato Soup on Jun 17, 2011 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions

Both of you guys are pretty sneaky that way....

Don't believe everything you think.

by dunkman on Jun 15, 2011 4:17 PM CDT up reply actions

nice post

well that sure put a few things in perspective for me thanks OCC!

Roger: Hey, with this mortar launcher, we can get back at the kid who went all Tom Sizemore on your eye!
Steve: Oh, I wish I could get back at him. I'm gonna dress up as a girl and get him to have sex with me and then say "Ha! I'm not a girl! You just had sex with a boy that hates you!"
Roger: Yes, let's leave that plan between you, me, and the string of therapists who won't be able to help you.
American Dad

by Cowboys_Attack on Jun 15, 2011 8:02 PM CDT reply actions

Romo=clutch

I’ve always known that…wouldn’t want the ball in another qbs hands when the game is on the line.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Jun 16, 2011 2:32 PM CDT reply actions

Greatest All-Time Clutch Cowboys Quarterback

In this context of discussion, I’m guessing that Clint Longley will probably top the charts as the all-time clutch Cowboys quarterback.

I was at the Thanksgiving game back in 1974 with a large group of extended family, including some that had just moved to Texas from the DC area and were committed Redskins fans.

Each time the Redskins built a thirteen point lead, they poured it on. In the last seconds of the game, with the Cowboys still down by six, they were already gloating about having won the game. One of my most cherished memories is watching their smirks disappear when Drew Pearson took that final bomb into the end zone.

Cowboys, Longhorns, and Spurs - all undefeated in 2011-12.

by hookerhome on Jun 21, 2011 3:15 PM CDT reply actions