Much like the NFL has done over the past 10-15 years, Fantasy Football is morphing into a year round entertainment fix for many pigskin fans. Websites that are dedicated to the leisure (and for profit) activity spend months breaking down player trends and see who might sustain their excellence from last year, and who has strong indicators that they will not repeat history. As always, we talk Fantasy with the Cowboys in mind, as nothing is more exhilarating than rooting on your favorite team and fantasy team without a conflict of interest.
For example, Rotoworld.com's Adam Levitan ran an article yesterday speaking to the five players that are most overdrafted during mocks, to give you an idea of who is being reached for so you can plan accordingly. Cleveland's Peyton Hillis draws the top spot thus far. Hillis wore down in the last half of the season, averaging less than four yards a carry in his final eight game. His new coach is already speaking to having a running back duo, and Hillis' carries are expected to come way down from his 367 in 2010. Hillis' Average Draft Position, or ADP, is 21.1 according to fantasyfootballcalculator.com which places him as a RB1, and he shouldn't be.
As far as the Cowboys are concerned, no one ranked in the top five overvalued category. Follow the jump to see where fantasyfootballcalculator.com calculates their ADP's.
Caveat here, I firmly believe in PPR leagues, point per reception, over standard scoring leagues. PPR leagues normally do a better job of equalizing the value of positions, since normally having a great running back core is the end-all be-all in a fantasy league. PPR allows wide receivers to be competitive when normally they are afterthoughts beyond the top 3 or 4 producers. The rankings below are for PPR and Flex (extra position that can be manned by a RB or WR and sometimes TE) leagues. This exercise also looks at the standard number of teams, 12 per league.
The high ranking let's you know the highest that player was drafted in 324 drafts between June 1st and June 9th. If you absolutely HAVE to have a player on your roster, this is the point where you need to slot them in. The low projection means that you will probably miss out on the player if you wait until that zone of picks to target them.
Dez Bryant is easily the most polarizing figure on the Cowboys roster. He has been drafted anywhere from the first pick in the fourth round all the way down to the seventh pick of the 10th round. It seems the jury is all over the place on either Dez playing a full season or being a breakout star. My recommendation is to tread lightly, especially in leagues where individual players don't get credit for kick returns. The Dallas Defense, normally a great value pick before the collapse of 2010, should definitely be available for you in the 10th round after you select two quarterbacks and seven position players.
#30 Miles Austin, WR. 3rd round, 8th pick. High: 2nd round, 6th pick.Low: 4th round, 10th pick.
#43 Tony Romo, QB, 4th round, 5th pick. High: 3rd round, 3rd pick. Low: 6th round, 5th pick.
#56 Jason Witten, TE, 5th round, 9th pick. High: 4th round, 4th pick. Low: 6th round, 9th pick.
#68 Felix Jones, RB, 6th round, 9th pick. High: 5th round, 1st pick. Low: 8th round, 9th pick.
#71 Dez Bryant, WR, 6th round, 12th pick. High: 4th round, 1st pick. Low: 10th round, 7th pick.
#129 Marion Barber, RB, 11th round, 9th pick. High: 9th round, 9th pick. Low: 13th round, 11th pick.
#181 Dallas Defense, 13th round, 10th pick. High: 10th round, 6th pick. Low: 15th round, 5th pick.
#182 Tashard Choice, RB, 13th round, 11th pick. High: 11th round, 12th pick. Low: 15th round, 12th pick.
#183 Roy Williams, WR, 13th round, 12th pick. High: 12th round, 1st pick. Low: 15th round, 7th pick.
#192 DeMarco Murray, RB, 14th round, 10th pick. High: 12th round, 4th pick. Low: 15th round, 12th pick.