2012 Super Bowl Odds After One Week Of NFL Free Agency

Longtime readers know that we periodically chronicle the Super Bowl odds for all teams here on Blogging The Boys, most recently in February this year. And after a week of action-filled free agency, we turn our eye to Vegas once again to see which teams moved up or down the list of Super Bowl favorites.

Back in May of 2010, the Vegas sports books had the Cowboys down as 10/1 favorites to win the 2011 Super Bowl. We all know how that turned out. Perhaps more interesting is that the three consensus favorites in May 2010 were either one-and-done in the playoffs (Colts: 7/1, Ravens: 9/1) or didn't make the payoffs at all (Chargers: 8/1).

Per Sunday, July 31, Sportsbook.com has the Packers, Patriots and Eagles pegged as joint favorites to win the Super Bowl with 6/1 odds. That translates into a 16.7% chance to win the Super Bowl for each team. The Cowboys are tied for the 11th best odds with 20/1 or a 5% chance. After the break, we look at how the odds have changed after the 2011 draft and after one week of free agency.

 2012 Super Bowl Odds

Team & Rank per April 20, 2011 per July 25, 2011 per July 31, 2011 Change
1T Patriots 20.0% (5/1) 16.7% (6/1) 16.7% (6/1) -3.3%
1T Packers 20.0% (5/1) 16.7% (6/1) 16.7% (6/1) -3.3%
1T Eagles 6.7% (15/1) 8.3% (12/1) 16.7% (6/1) 10.0%
4 Colts 8.3% (12/1) 11.1% (9/1) 10.0% (10/1) -1.7%
5T Steelers 11.1% (9/1) 10.0% (10/1) 8.3% (12/1) -2.8%
5T Jets 8.3% (12/1) 8.3% (12/1) 8.3% (12/1) - -
5T Falcons 6.7% (15/1) 8.3% (12/1) 8.3% (12/1) +1.6%
5T Saints 6.7% (15/1) 8.3% (12/1) 8.3% (12/1) +1.6%
9T Chargers 8.3% (12/1) 8.3% (12/1) 6.7% (15/1) -1.6%
9T Ravens 8.3% (12/1) 8.3% (12/1) 6.7% (15/1) -1.6%
11T Lions 2.5% (40/1) 4.0% (25/1) 5.0% (20/1) +2.5%
11T Cowboys 6.7% (15/1) 5.6% (18/1) 5.0% (20/1) -1.7%
11T Giants 6.7% (15/1) 6.7% (15/1) 5.0% (20/1) -1.7%
14T Buccaneers 3.3% (30/1) 3.3% (30/1) 3.3% (30/1) - -
14T Chiefs 3.3% (30/1) 3.3% (30/1) 3.3% (30/1) - -
14T Texans 2.9% (35/1) 2.9% (35/1) 3.3% (30/1) 0.4%
17T 49ers 3.3% (30/1) 2.5% (40/1) 2.5% (40/1) -0.8%
17T Bears 5.0% (20/1) 3.3% (30/1) 2.5% (40/1) -2.5%
17T Dolphins 2.5% (40/1) 2.5% (40/1) 2.5% (40/1) - -
17T Vikings 2.5% (40/1) 3.3% (30/1) 2.5% (40/1) - -
21T Cardinals 1.3% (80/1) 2.0% (50/1) 2.0% (50/1) +0.7%
21T Raiders 2.0% (50/1) 2.0% (50/1) 2.0% (50/1) - -
21T Rams 2.0% (50/1) 2.0% (50/1) 2.0% (50/1) - -
24T Broncos 1.7% (60/1) 1.7% (60/1) 1.7% (60/1) - -
24T Browns 1.7% (60/1) 1.7% (60/1) 1.7% (60/1) - -
24T Jaguars 1.7% (60/1) 1.7% (60/1) 1.7% (60/1) - -
24T Titans 1.7% (60/1) 1.7% (60/1) 1.7% (60/1) - -
28 Seahawks 1.3% (80/1) 1.3% (80/1) 1.3% (80/1) - -
29T Redskins 1.7% (60/1) 1.7% (60/1) 1.0% (100/1) -0.7%
29T Bengals 1.7% (60/1) 1.0% (100/1) 1.0% (100/1) -0.7%
31T Bills 0.7% (150/1) 0.7% (150/1) 0.7% (150/1) - -
31T Panthers 0.7% (150/1) 0.7% (150/1) 0.7% (150/1) - -

Obviously, the odds are adjusted for where the money is going, and not necessarily a reflection of true team strength. But it is interesting to see the dynamic over the last few months and how teams' odds have fared through the draft and free agency. The table above shows the Vegas odds for each team just prior to the draft (April 20), prior to free agency (July 25) and per yesterday, after almost a week of free agency. In principle, that allows us to look at how successful the draft and free agency is perceived to be by the betting money.

The Draft: Overall, the draft didn't move the odds for many teams. Notable exceptions are the Lions and Cardinals, who saw significant changes in their odds, and both teams did draft well, at least at the top of the draft. The Eagles, Colts, Falcons and Saints all saw a slight improvement of their odds after the draft, while the Cowboys dropped a little.

Free Agency: The big winners here are the Eagles. Not only did they fleece the Cardinals with the Kolb trade (notice how the Cardinals' odds remain unchanged after the trade?) but they added some big-name players in free agency that moved the odds up significantly, making the Eagles co-favorites for the Super Bowl along with the Packers and Patriots. The Lions also see their odds improve after the week of free agency.

The Cowboys drop slightly in the odds as do a lot of other teams, but the most noticeable free agency drop comes courtesy of the Redskins, Vikings, Bears and Giants.

In the last few years, being the early season favorite has not always proven helpful in the postseason. We'll see how it goes this year, as the numbers are bound to change in the course of the preseason anyway.

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