The Thin Line Between 6-10 and 10-6

Is this team any good? The players and coaches seem to think they can make the playoffs. But it seems as if management is saying we’re going to contend in a few years and not now.

No one has came out and said this though because we have talent. I don’t like our defense at all despite having Ware and Ratliff. I hope Jenkins can be good and TNew doesn’t get hurt. Plus we haven’t signed a safety.

The offensive line seems better. We cut dead weight and we have a young line with guys like Free, Smith, and Arkin in a year or two.

If they dont do something at the safety position Im leaning to 7-9. Coaches wont be enough to make this a playoff team this year. The whole division got alot better and we havent made enough improvements to counter act the changes made by those teams. We need another year to clear out some dead money, have a good draft and maybe we make a run in 2012.

if JG, RR, Robinson, Romo, Ware, Witten, Ratliff Austin & Dez aren’t worth 10 wins then this team needs to rebuild. i dont really care for the resigning of Spears or Hatcher on the DL but when was the last time a D-Linemen was the difference in a super bowl? Reggie White is my guess & i didnt see any of those guys on the market.

I actually kind of touched on this topic a little in Gmunny’s post when I wrote:

But really, my problem with posts like this is that they don’t take into account how minor the difference can be between a team that goes 6-10 and a team that goes 10-6. A team could have it’s entire record literally changed by a handful of plays. You could be right that this team has changed almost not at all, and yet they could play a 16-game schedule and inexplicably go 9-7 just because they get a few breaks, make a few more well-timed plays, or make a few less mistakes.

It’s because of this that I wouldn’t get too wrapped up in what tangible improvements you can see at this point. If our whole team improves just slightly, and we improve at a few key spots (FS, RT, ILB), we could change the range of possibilities greatly for our season since these tiny changes can have huge ripple effects. Overall, the NFL and its outcomes hinge on such minute margins that I don’t believe there is a single team that is doomed or destined before the season and Dallas is no different. There is never reason to have no hope, and there is likewise never reason to feel guaranteed of anything (looking at you, Eagles fans). You are welcome to your opinion, but I am going to stay optimistic and hope that this is the year that we overachieve and reach heights that most see as currently unattainable.

In light of what I wrote above, and the fact that I am generally optimistic about Dallas, I will predict a record of 10-6 with a playoff berth. I don’t think it is unattainable by any stretch of the imagination and I think we are more likely to overachieve with Garrett as our head coach than we ever were with Wade in that position.

that the difference in this year will be coaching, if the team stays as it is right now and Wade was the coach I’d say 7-9 or 8-8 but I think that JG and RR will give these players the push they need to achieve their goal. Once they’re in the playoffs all bets are off, a play here and there and they just might find themselves in the biggest game of all. Just like the Packers did last year.

They have cut 2 starting OL, the rest of their o-line other than Snee is old, they have no LBs, Osi Umenyiora is doing his annual crying act, steve smith is not recovering from microfracture, etc.

How have they improved?

John Beck is the worst starting QB in the NFL. Right now their starting skill position players would be:

RB: Tim Hightower or Ryan Torain
WR: Moss, Armstrong, Stallworth/Hankerson

They may be better than last year but they are still not much more than a 6-win team

but that 1-7 start could have easily been a 6-2 start…..

Six plays..that was the difference between 6-2 and 1-7…..six plays that went against us…..

If so, you’ve returned to form. Something is funky with the formatting, maybe OCC can edit while he’s not cleaning up bad language?

Nicely done, IF, nicely done.

(koolaid-stained) there ws a lot of realism here about this team.

I agrre with all you said except
“but I feel like their worse is sitting at 7-9. 8-8 or 9-7”.

Believe me, they could be worse than 7-9. They could go 6-10 again, for a crazy example.
And don’t forget, take out that stupid win against the Eagles week 17 and they could have been 5-11 !! So it’s definitely possible.
As is 11-5, tho. Who knows?

Thanks Iron Fist.

I think 9-7 to 11-5 is our range. We’ve still got some excellent talent at key spots; QB, LT, WR, TE, OLB. As well as solid talent at other spots. There’s definitely some holes no doubt but all teams have them.

The offense should be very good although Oline questions (Rookie RT, RG who?) will probably prevent them from becoming consistently dominant.

The defense will improve its commitment and results I’m sure but as it stands now they’re doubtful to become consistently strong in 2011. A pair of veteran Safety’s, who I believe are on the way, along with demanding coaches will greatly help this group though.
     
What makes me optimistic is that I believe Jason Garrett will get more focused and consistent performances out of this team than we’ve seen before.

If you buy into this kind of thing, I calculated the Pythagorean wins for 2010. The Cowboys under-performed their expected win total by 1.6 games, which means that, had a few balls bounced a different way, this team could and should have been a 7-9 or an 8-8 team. If you take out the two biggest statistical outliers, the blowout in Green Bay and a solid win over Detroit, we actually outscored our opponents, and looked like a 9-7 team.

I know a lot of people discount FO and the like, and while I don’t agree with everything they say, I do agree that the difference in game decided by less than a touchdown can be one or two fluky or lucky plays, and teams who lose a disproportionate amount of close games tend to regress to the mean the next year. Dallas had 11 (!) games last year decided by a touchdown or less, and lost eight of them. Now the question is, are the changes enough to make what is realistically a .500 team move to 10-6 or 11-5. I’d say Tony Romo staying healthy is worth a game, and the new coaching staff is worth a game or two. So yeah, I’m thinking 10-6 is realistic for the year.

For the record (and take the SSS as you will), if you look at only games under Jason Garrett, the Cowboys project right with the win-loss record, as a 10-6 team, despite missing 2 of the 5 most important skill guys for all eight of those games. There is reason to be optimistic.

I see a slow start on the defensive side of the ball, (giving up alot of points early in the season) that will have us peaking at season end. It is a complex system, and i expect early troubles. The O will be good throughout, and will keep us in games even when the d falters

you can believe this team can win 10+ games, if you’re a non believer in them, then you probably believe we can’t win many games.

Hopefully all the non believers will see the light this season.

One per game. At the goal-line. And all the way back down the field.

Beauty is, the debate’ll be about just which point made the difference.

Me, ultimately, I’ll look up at the scoreboard.

I’m leaning more toward the 11-5 projection. From everything I’ve read of the OL, I think we’ll improve our running game (especially in the red zone). Our passing game has been solid throughout the past 3 years. Our weakness has appeared to be getting the tough yards that decide games and/or provide momentum.

I believe the NFC East knows our skill players on offense are supperior to their past secondary and LB’s, which is why Philly went on a spending spree (IMO). So, the difference comes down to the defense, which I think will start to fly around a create havoc with teams unfamiliar with the Ryan D.

Personally, I see us matching up really well with Philly and NYJ. The Jets game might just be the key to the season when our Cowboys totally buy into the systems being put in place. I just don’t see Sanchez lighting us up and our offese should certainly score on NYJ because we practice against a similar D every day.