New kickoff rules should place emphasis on the details and reward the better teams

by ScarletO on Aug 20, 2011 1:05 PM CDT

Innovation, rule changes, and new financial agreements in athletics generally revolutionize the sport. The changes that occur as a result of simple differences are often unanticipated, and frequently lead to many transformations of the sport: both subtle and overt.

One of the oldest Olympic sports, fencing, had an innovation completely change the strategy of the sport. Prior to the Berlin Olympics (1936), epee fencing was judged by 5 people that would determine whether the tip of the epee (sword) hit the opponent. The tip of the epee is the second fastest object in the Olympics, only behind the bullet shot out of a gun.

With the advent of electronic scoring, it was no longer necessary for epeeists to make their touches obvious. Since a light and buzzer would signal a touch and was over 99% accurate, touches to the hand and foot could now be effectively executed on a consistent basis. The French epeeists were the first to adapt, and many medals ensued.

Now the Italians and Germans (there you go O.C.C.) have won their share utilizing the Hungarian school of epee. This was in response to the dominance of the French style. In other words it was a natural evolution of the sport following an innovation.

Although studies have shown fencers have lower extremity strength comparable to football players, I am afraid that there are not too many more comparisons between the two sports. Football, however, is very good at adding innovations and rule changes to improve the sport. The most recent is the new kickoff rule that I believe will be around for a very long time due to how it spares players from additional risk of injury.

In 2010, there were about 3,083 kickoffs (23 were returned for touchdowns). The average starting position following kickoffs was around the 24-yard line. If offenses start closer to the 20-yard line this season, the average team will have lost 24 yards per game in field position.

By making offenses start about 80 yards away from their opponent’s end zone, I believe an emphasis will be placed on other ways to gain field position. I have thought of the following and invite further suggestions:

1. Big plays

2. Turnovers/takeaways

3. Punt returns and coverage

4. Penalties

5. Sacks and tackles for loss

It is difficult for teams to string together 10+ play drives spanning 80 yards to score. For that reason, explosive offenses capable of gobbling up yardage in fewer plays will have a better chance to score, or pin their opponents back in their own end. In 2010, the future “Dream Team”, the Eagles and the Giants had the most plays over 20 yards (80 each). San Diego (79) and Pittsburgh (78) followed, with Dallas finishing 8th (68).

Turnovers and takeaways will instantly change field position. In 2010, New England (28), Pittsburgh (17), Atlanta (14), Green Bay (10), Philadelphia (9), Kansas City (9), Tampa Bay (9), and the New York Jets (9) led the league in turnover differential. With the exception of Tampa Bay, all of those teams made the playoffs. Since the average punt nets approximately 39 yards, any takeaway less than 20 yards from the line of scrimmage would at least benefit the team with 20 yards of field position.

There were approximately 1.68 takeaways per team per game in 2010 (860 total). Comparatively, there were about 3.7 plays of over 20 yards per team in each game played last season (1892 total). Most of the changes in field position, however, came from the punting game. There were about 4.8 punts per game per team in 2010 (2454 total). The average return was around 9.6 yards, leaving the afore mentioned 39 yard net per punt.

Better punt coverage would benefit any team in 2011 tremendously. Notice that despite having the most and third most big plays (of over 20 yards) the Giants and the Chargers missed the playoffs last season. Correspondingly, the Chargers had the worst punt coverage, yielding an average return of 18.9 yards per return. The Giants were second worst in the league, giving up 14.9 yards per punt return in 2010.

The average team had almost exactly 6 penalties per game played in 2010. The average yardage lost was a little less than 51 yards per team per game. With the most explosive plays of over 20 yards last season, it is surprising that the pre-“Dream Team” Eagles did not win more games. Only Oakland (Surprise! 148) and Detroit (136) had more penalties than Philadelphia (129) in 2010. Dallas (109) was 6th worst in 2010, but as noted in other posts, that number would have been much worse had the early trend of penalties continued from the first half of the season.

Sacks obviously have a negative impact on field position and the ability to score (see another fine O.C.C. article written several months ago). The average team suffers around 2.2 sacks per game leading to an average loss of almost 15 yards. Chicago, a team known for its great special teams, suffered the most sacks in 2010 (56). Protecting Cutler better would have led to better field position.

As I tried to demonstrate, many teams do well in one of the five major influences to gain field position, but give some of those gains back in another area. Last season, Dallas was awful with penalties, return yardage, and turnovers at the beginning of the season. The Cowboys started 1-7, despite having a good amount of plays over 20 yards.

With the new rules affecting field position on over 3,000 plays, the five factors listed above will be magnified in importance. For this reason, I believe that Dallas tries to keep more special teams players to effectively contain punt returners, the single biggest change to field position in the game.

Teams that have bolstered their offensive lines, such as Dallas, will have more opportunities for big plays downfield while minimizing negative plays, such as sacks. Teams that operate with more discipline will also avoid penalties that adversely change field position.

Every team tries to avoid turnovers and maximize takeaways, but those teams that emphasize it will be better off than in the past. Oddly enough, this is the style of defense that Garrett has asked for from Rob Ryan.

In writing this, I found myself remembering many of the nuggets that Garrett drops in his press conference. Perhaps this edition of the Cowboys will pay attention to these small details, leading to another division title and sixth Super Bowl championship.

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Comments

One other change

will likely be a reduced number of scoring drives. Less successful drives means more punts or field goal attempts. The conclusion is the same as yours: “keep more special teams players” to win the field position battle.

by One.Cool.Customer on Aug 20, 2011 4:40 PM CDT reply actions

Joe D better have 'em ready

we face SO many good returners this year:

Banks (twice), Desean (twice), Leon Washington, Brad Smith, Tedd Ginn, Brandon Tate, Lerod-Stephens Howling/Patrick Peterson…yikes.

"There are no traffic jams along the extra mile."- Roger Staubach

by Rat-Pack on Aug 20, 2011 6:09 PM CDT reply actions

Plus it'll be "nice"...

… not needing to rush back after the extra point commercial break in case there’s a decent kickoff return, Much “nicer” to have that even more extended commercial break. Tell ya what, let’s just do away with kickoffs altogether and put the ball at the 20.

24 yds per game? C’mon, where’s the stats saying those 24 yds total made a significant impact on who won/lost the game? Is it really that much more “difficult for teams to string together 10+ play drives spanning 80 yards to score” than 76 yards? There are numbers to back that up? Not trying to be an ass, I’m asking seriously.

Cry 'Havoc!'

by tanstaafl on Aug 20, 2011 8:36 PM CDT reply actions

great job on the post and awesome on the research...

You bring up several good points. The lack of a consistent kickoff return will only amplify the other areas to determine field postion. Do you think due to this rule change it makes it more likely that the cowboys bring back Matt McBriar at the end of this season due to his ability to flip the field? 2 million a season for a punter used to be way overpay. Now it seems that that position if you find a marquee player is more important.

"We were going to go out to Valley Ranch and use it as an opportunity to get back out in the heat and work, and I open up the curtains this morning very early and all of a sudden it was 68 and raining," Garrett said. "I said to the players, 'How big was the group prayer last night?' -Jason Garrett

by TruBluToTheCore on Aug 21, 2011 1:59 AM CDT reply actions

I do not know if the Cowboys think the same way.

I would definitely bring back McBriar, however, as his accuracy within the opponent’s 20-yard line, and his high, booming punts are a tremendous weapon.

I always find it funny how teams wish to skimp at punter. Afterall, the average team will punt about five times a game. A receiver with five catches a game would have a very good 80 catch season.

McBriar blew all other punters away with a 44.8 yard net average. That is about six yards of field position better than the league average: or 30 additional yards of field position a game. In addition, despite all of their other problems in 2010, Dallas was the third best team in punt coverage (6.2 average yards per punt return).

O.C.C. had a post up about a year ago where the likelihood of scoring from a particular point on the field was calcualted across the field. Obviously, the closer the ball was to the opponent’s goal line, the higher the probability of scoring became. Conversely, making an opponent start even six yards further back leads to a decreased occurence of scoring.

by ScarletO on Aug 21, 2011 10:42 AM CDT up reply actions

What's the probability...

… of scoring from the 24-yard line? What’s the probability of scoring from the 20-yard line? Is the difference significant?

Cry 'Havoc!'

by tanstaafl on Aug 21, 2011 2:19 PM CDT up reply actions

explain this to me

last yr teams kicked from the 30 and most kicks landed near the goal line and by moving it 5 yds to the 35 now there being boomed out of the endzone?

by ziggy19 on Aug 21, 2011 8:38 AM CDT reply actions

You're right, a couple of teams already figured this out. You can still return a lot of KO's

if you’re willing to gamble by running it out of the endzone. Teams who trust their returners more may still run a lot out.

Pessimists say the cup is half-empty, while optimists say it's half-full. Well, isn't it both? Realist Larry, 2009

by Realist Larry on Aug 21, 2011 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions

Didn't JG have the Kickers pooch the ball short vs DEN

In order to assess players on ST? I wonder if that can become a tactic – popping the ball up to pin Returners inside their 20. It’s quite common in rugby, except the kicks don’t travel as far, but the comparison is apt.

Field position is such a critical factor in scoring, I do wonder if the net effect/unintended consequence of this will be longer drives/lower scoring.

Wine - the way classy people get wasted

by tdships on Aug 21, 2011 10:33 AM CDT reply actions

Popup KO's with the pin

… was something a buddy and me were talking about and looking to see if it became a tactic due to the new rules too. Be scared or complimented, you think like him. If ya wanna take my word, it’s a compliment, but then I know the guy.

Shame it’d take a rule change to “force” that change into being. I mean, wouldn’t it have been just as viable a tactic before? Sure that pooch and placement is maybe (quite possibly?) tougher from a kicking technique point-of-view compared to punting, but c’mon, it’s not impossible. Punts are more placement kicks than KO’s, right? Being paid to kick a ball, you should be able to put a half-rev per set distance spin on the thing (along either axis) with a double back-flipped tumble when it hits the ground within a 3-to-5 yard radius of any given point within your range. Then again, I do ask a lot of “professionals”, in any field.

Whatever, when he mentioned it, like you, it got me considering that maybe the rule change might not be as goofy a thing as I figured when it was first announced. It’ll depend on how it plays out.

btw, td, why’d your sig make me think?: Whine – the way assy people get heard

Cry 'Havoc!'

by tanstaafl on Aug 21, 2011 11:12 AM CDT up reply actions

That's my world, Tan

A curious and sometimes frightening place. Any word coming from you, I’ll take as a compliment.

I’ve observed most innovation is iterative – incremental asn the next linear, logical step. Without the one preceding, the next is never taken, it’s simply not apparent. By extension, I suppose you could make the case, true breakthrough innovation is non-linear. I know humor is – setup, setup, punchline. It’s the unexpected, non-linear conclusion that strikes the audience as funny.

I can see the pooch KO being situationally tactical – attempting to pin an opponent down at the end of half or game. You’re trailing and just scored to bring the deficit within 1 score. One pooch, a 3 and out and you’ve got field position to start your game tying/winning drive. With enough time, its a lower risk alternative to the onside kick.

As to the tag line, I’ve also found Wine improves with age. The older I get, the better I like it

Wine - the way classy people get wasted

by tdships on Aug 21, 2011 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions

My whine’s getting worse.

Cry 'Havoc!'

by tanstaafl on Aug 21, 2011 5:28 PM CDT up reply actions

"I do wonder if the net effect/unintended consequence of this will be longer drives/lower scoring."

Statistically, it will lead to lower scoring, and more punts: as O.C.C. noted above. I also like the idea of pooching the kick up in the air and forcing the team to decide whether to come out of the end zone or settle for the ball on the 20-yard line.

I watched a game yesterday where this tactic was employed and the return team committed a penalty, backing them up within the 10-yard line. I imagine that kickoff penalties occur more frequently than touchdown returns (only 23 kickoff returns for touchdowns in 2010).

The odds would favor pinning teams within the 20-yard line. Subsequently, with good special teams play in both kickoff coverage (stopping a team within the 20), and in returning a punt following a three and out (with good defense), the kickoff team would have the ball around their own 40-yard line.

With an adequate field goal kicker, two first downs could lead to a quick three points. Then the kickoff team could repeat the cycle.

I really believe that this new kickoff rule will revolutionize the game.

by ScarletO on Aug 21, 2011 10:52 AM CDT reply actions