Are running backs worth the money?
All this recent activity about running backs on the board has got the gears in my head moving and boy do they need greasing.
As with all things time brings about change. Either thru need or design, the game of football has evolved at the running back position to the point where IMO its simply not to be considered a big money position anymore. Free Agency and the salary cap have conspired against it. Since Bill was here we have had our backfield set up to be more of a committee approach.
Julius Jones and Marion Barber.
Felix Jones, Marion Barber, TashardChoice.
In all probability we are looking at Felix Jones, Demarco Murray, and Phillip Tanner this year.
This line of thinking is brought even more to the forefront due to the problems that the Titans are having with Chris Johnson. In case the faithful havn't been paying attention to those rumblings, ChrisJohnson is stuck in a protracted holdout and has refused to step foot into camp without a new contract. His demandsare to be payed as one of the top players in the NFL regardless of position. Think the money Peyton just got paid. The team insists that if he shows up they will make him the highest paid RB in the league. While he has significantly outperfomed his rookie contract, and I do feel that he meritsa pay raise of significant proportions, I don't feel he should be paid as much as he feels he should be. This is my reasoning.
Running backs today are considered by many to not be as elite a position as it once was. More teams are using the passing game to set up the running attack. With the new emphasis on passing, teams have been successful using RB's that are more role players than feature backs. Mike Shanahan while he was in Denver was famous for his blocking scheme and while I hate to admit it, it allowed him to draft a RB in later rounds that was serviceablein his scheme. Remember Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, heck even Mike Anderson? Not exactly HUGE players but ones that fit the scheme.
When that players time was up how many times did we see Mike trade him for picks and laugh all the way to the bank? He would just draft another fresh pair of legs and let the old one go. No need to waste money on a player he was confident he could find on the cheap.
Let's say Felix has a big year. 1,600 yards rushing, more catching. He even outperforms CJ2K. Would you give in to his demands if he would ask for a HUGE increase in pay? If Demarco Murray or Phillip Tanner flash as much ability do you take the chance they will develop and be able to contribute in the scheme? Do you give in and put all your chips on one player.
One Player that has to prove durable at one of the positions that takes the most punishment.
One Player that eats up a staggering amount of money that hinders the ability of the team to make improvements in other areas.
One Player that places himself above all others on the team and deems himself so irreplaceable, he holds out to damage the chances of the team to win.
No One Player to me is worth that much money.
Jason Garrett is creating a backfield that isn't just dependent on one player. It's more than a Thunder/Lightning combo. Cerebus has been used to describe Rob's version of this defense. In all respect to those that used it, I'm going to go for a little copyright infringement and steal him for the vision that Garrett has for his backfield.
3 Backs all with similar abilities. A rotational system that gives you the ability to maintain your flexibility whenever you change one out for rest or injury. This is why Garrett favors versatility in his running backs. A depth chart that allows you to attack every down, every distance, every situation in the game exactly the same way is a huge advantage to the offense.
A system that has a designated runner, short yardage back, and a change of pace back I would argue actually hinders your offense and makes it more predictable. It also makes you more vulnerable to long term loss.
One Player does not make a Team, tho One Player can destroy it.
Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.
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Problem with situational players
Are if they can only be used in one instance then it can be a tell on what the team is about to do. With Barber if it was 3rd and 2 most times the defense could figure out then need to dog pile him. You need RB’s that can do most things you ask them to. Run, catch, and block, so the other team has to guess at what your doing.
Now can you overpay a guy and hurt the team. Hell YES. Eventually you have to let someone go even if you love what they’ve been able to do for a club. Especially if they want to keep getting paid as a major player instead of a backup or “mentor”.
here is a very good explanation of why the Titan’s shouldn’t pay CJ
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2011/08/dont-pay-cj.html
We can’t quantify the value of a player the way the MLB analysts can, with Wins Above Replacement and other stats. But we can at least make some back-of-the-envelope, order-of-magnitude estimates.
Comparing the standard deviation of 2010’s top 40 QBs’ stats to the top 40 RBs’ stats shows that the difference between winning and losing rests far more in the QBs’ hands. The SD of QB WPA is 1.75 wins, and the SD of RB WPA is 0.47 wins, a factor of over 3 in favor of QBs. On a per game basis, it’s a factor of over 4.2.
Comparing EPA, the SD for QBs is 58 points, and the SD for RBs is 18 points. That’s a factor of over 3 in favor of QBs. On a per play basis, it’s a factor of 1.4 in favor of QBs, but keep in mind that top QBs are involved in twice as many plays as the top RBs…
Take the $12 million per year, put it into your offensive line, and draft a couple 4th round RBs. You’ll thank me later.
You know what Kenny Powers says? Fundamentals are the crutch of the talentless.
by Fan in Thick and Thin on Aug 27, 2011 6:15 PM CDT reply actions
The league is saturated with running backs right now.
None of the free agent running backs got big contracts. The league has caught up and learned from LT, Shaun Alexander, and Larry Johnson. One year a guy is the top dog and then suddenly the next year, he is the hydrant. Just look how fast Marion Barber and Julius Jones declined. I wouldn’t ever pay a RB top money, there’s too many guys in the 3-5 round that can give you 3-4 solid seasons. Look at Tanner, undrafted.
by 2tightendpkg on Aug 27, 2011 11:24 PM CDT up reply actions
well to play Devils Advocate here
I would say that certain player are worth it…Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson…these players I would say are worth it because they are valuable to the franchise. If you look at what CJ does for the Titans, he is the Titans offense, I think he accounts for over 50 % of their Offensive production…Peterson is in a similar position….
And that doesn’t even take into account the fact that having a CJ or AP on the field changes how the Defense plays….if by having him on the field that means that the WR’s are more likely to have single coverage, how does that factor in?
Here’s a theoretical play from 2010: Snap. Tony takes 7 step drop. Tony looks left at Miles, who is doubled, and looks right to where Roy Williams should be…but instead sees Colombo on his back and a Defensive End foaming at the mouth jumping over Marc’s carcass. Tony proceeds to run like hell and look for Witten
-by CotySaxman on Jul 11, 2011 7:50 AM PDT
Am I the most optimistic Cowboys fan in the World? Yes, due to an "unfortunate accident" to the previous holder of the title.
by I am Ironman!!! on Aug 28, 2011 1:22 AM CDT up reply actions
Yes but nowadays there are maybe 4 backs like that a decade
I would say AD is the exception to the rule. And with CJ we will never know but hes going to sit out this season and probably never return to form on another team.
Tony Romo 2011's League's Most Valuable Player
No, no, no...
… you needn’t make exceptions. No single player is so exceptional that he’s a team unto himself. Period. Not in this sport.
If you pay someone mortage-the-house kinda coin, if you set Johnson-like (dare I say Sanders-like? yep, I do dare) salary standards and new expectations, if you buy into this-guy-is-needed-to-win you deserve what you get. And it ain’t W’s.
Caveat emptor.
Cry 'Havoc!'
yeah
Peterson is the guy you pay
CJ should get paid too, hes made peanuts for the last few years
Bruce Carter+Sean Lee=BRUCE LEE!!!!
Follow me at my blog
http://chiacrackscowboysblog.wordpress.com/
by Archie Barberio on Aug 28, 2011 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Wrong, fellas. Both of ya.
Stated simply, no player is the whole team. Not on winning teams.
Cry 'Havoc!'
Exceptions don't prove rules.
Look, ham, up to your prior comment. “Exception to the rule” was closer to being a valid statement, despite how incorrect it is.
Cry 'Havoc!'
shenanigans
I would pay AD whatever he wanted on his 2nd contract.
Tony Romo 2011's League's Most Valuable Player
shenanigans? What? Who? me?
And I wouldn’t. I’d make a fair offer, not be held to ransom or blinded by the light, so to speak. Or buy into the herd’s stampede. We differ, as GM’s. Not so much in shenanigi.
Cry 'Havoc!'
part of that comment
factors into AD’s character where he wouldn’t demand 20mil a yr you know
Tony Romo 2011's League's Most Valuable Player
Still No
The Vikings have had Peterson for four years, the Titans have had CJ for three years. Their team’s records were 8-8, 10-6, 12-4, 6-10, and 13-3, 8-8, 6-10. The year CJ went off and had over 2,000 yards rushing the team went 8-8.
If you look at those years, of the three goods years (10-6, 12-4, 13-3), only one of those years (AP in 10-6 season) could you say the runningback made the difference, as the other seasons the main change in the team was good quarterback play. AP and CJ were the same players all seven years, yet the only time the TEAM had success was when the quarterback played well. Runningbacks just aren’t the key to a good team.
For comparison, look at the other good teams recently: Packers had no one at RB, year before Colts and Saints had major runningback committees and were all about the pass, and the year before the Cardinals were 100% pass. The only other Superbowl team is the Steelers, but they aren’t even about the run – it’s all Big Ben’s arm and the best defense in the league. Runningbacks do not matter.
Unfortunately for the Titans
Their offensive identity is definted by Chris Johnson. Also, to be fair, he is very very very good. Tennessee does not have strong personnel at other skill positions, perhaps aside from Britt. And it is worth considering that CJ probably fills seats and sells merchandise better that your average 4th rounder.
I would be interested to know CJ’s EPA last year, and the year before that. How does that compare to the EPA of the Titans’ QB in the same years?
CJ probably feels significantly undervalued for his 2000 yd season, and his not-so-shabby follow up. Maybe a year or two of heavily guaranteed compensation and then some more years of incentives and bonuses?
Smiles ahead
by accidental innuendo on Aug 28, 2011 6:38 AM CDT up reply actions
I wouldn't let felix walk
But if he asked for top running back money, I wouldn’t give him 10mil a year either………But I think the difference is Felix Jones wants to be a Cowboy and when it comes time to resign. Hypothetically if we had CJ I wouldn’t want us to pay him top $$$ at a position where players get injured all the time and are never the same after that.
by 2tightendpkg on Aug 28, 2011 7:56 AM CDT up reply actions
NO
he isnt a free agent anyway
Bruce Carter+Sean Lee=BRUCE LEE!!!!
Follow me at my blog
http://chiacrackscowboysblog.wordpress.com/
by Archie Barberio on Aug 28, 2011 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions
No football player...
… is worth the money, yet it’s what they’re valued at.
Shame this beer’s $8 a pop or we could have a few and debate whether Mom and that teacher ya remember have more worth than what they were valued at. Unlike these entertainers.
Cry 'Havoc!'
+1
Here’s a theoretical play from 2010: Snap. Tony takes 7 step drop. Tony looks left at Miles, who is doubled, and looks right to where Roy Williams should be…but instead sees Colombo on his back and a Defensive End foaming at the mouth jumping over Marc’s carcass. Tony proceeds to run like hell and look for Witten
-by CotySaxman on Jul 11, 2011 7:50 AM PDT
Am I the most optimistic Cowboys fan in the World? Yes, due to an "unfortunate accident" to the previous holder of the title.
by I am Ironman!!! on Aug 28, 2011 2:55 AM CDT up reply actions




























