FanPost

TMQB: The Buffalo 2007 Edition


For reasons I’ve explained before (prior explanations here and here) this year I’m watching net pass YPA (passing yards – sack yards) / (pass attempts +sacks).

Buffalo 2007: Root of all evil?

I’ve figured out what’s going on. You all remember the Monday night game against Buffalo. Dallas was down 24-16 with 3:45 left in the game. Dallas drives 80 yards for a TD, recovers an onside kick, and kicks a 53 yard field goal to win. In light of what’s happened since (e.g. the Crayton drop, the whole 2010 season, Sunday's game) I think it’s pretty obvious that Jerry made a deal with the devil and traded away the Cowboys luck for the next ten years for that win in Buffalo.

Week 1

The table below summarizes Dallas’s net pass YPA for the period from 2007-2010.

Offensive net pass YPA

Offensive net pass YPA Rank

Defensive net pass YPA

Defensive net pass YPA Rank

2007

7.4

2nd

5.4

6th

2008

6.6

11th

5.3

5th

2009

7.3

6th

5.9

11th

2010

6.7

7th

6.8

28th

As a basis for comparison, summarized in the table below are the maximum, median, average, and minimum net pass YPA for the NFL 2010 season

Offense

Defense

Maximum

7.8

7.5

Median

6.1

6.1

Average

6.2

6.2

Minimum

4.3

5.3

The Cowboys results from week 1 are summarized in the table below.

Dallas Cowboys

Week

Offensive net pass YPA

Offensive net pass YPA Rank

Defensive net pass YPA

Defensive net pass YPA Rank

1

8.2

6th

6.6

17th

The Darkos results from week 1 are summarized in the table below.

Darko Cowboys

Week

Offensive net pass YPA

Offensive net pass YPA Rank

Defensive net pass YPA

Defensive net pass YPA Rank

1

8.7

5th

5.1

10th

I said before the game

against the Jet’s I’ll be looking to see if the Dallas defense holds the NYJ below 6.2 net pass YPA and if the offense gains more than 6.2 net pass YPA. Last year the Jet’s net pass YPA on offense was 5.9 (22nd) and 5.6 (4th) on defense. … Last year Dallas was 7th in net pass YPA at 6.7 yards/a on offense and 28th in net pass YPA on defense at 6.8 yards/a. I don’t see the difference between the NYJ and Dallas as being large. The NYJ are the mirror image of Dallas. The Jets offense is about as weak the Dallas D and the NYJ D is about as good as the Dallas offense.

The offense did a tremendous job producing net pass YPA of 8.2 yards/a against a very good Jets defense (the Jets allowed more than that 8.2 yards/a once last year … to the NEP in NE). The defense was ok. The defense allowed net pass YPA of 6.6 yards/a. The Jets passing game is below average; allowing above average production by a below average team is nothing to cheer (its even a little worse because the Jets got above average production on a ton of passing attempts .. 48).

Lost in all the teeth gnashing about Romo is that great teams whomp good teams, good teams whomp average teams, and average teams whomp bad teams. Meanwhile, good teams play close games against other good teams. How does that apply? Dallas isn’t a great team. Sunday was a close game because Dallas isn’t a great team and the difference between Dallas being a great team and a good team is the defense. Dallas is what we thought; great offense and mediocre defense. If the defense was great or good Dallas wins that game. Don’t forget that after the Jets got the game back to 24-17, the offense drove the ball 77 yards to the Jets 3. Romo’s fumble still left the D in a great position.

I don’t want to rip the D. I like how the defense played. The defense gave a gutty performance in a game where they were handicapped by injuries, but that wasn’t outstanding defense. It’s somewhat hard to assess the D. They were playing against a below average offense but they were without their top 3 CBs for parts of the game. However, my approach is to disregard injuries and report on the actual results. And the actual result was that a defense with Ball, McCann and an injured Jenkins as the corners is mediocre. Obviously I expect and hope that getting everyone back healthy will lead to an improvement.

I feel like the defense has been so bad that they get graded on a curve. As long as they aren’t atrocious that’s ok. Dallas put up 24 points on the Jets at home. That’s enough to win. The Jets were handicapped by a QB who had just as many turnovers: a fumble and an int that was almost returned for a TD and they weren’t handicapped by a special teams touchdown.

The defense continues to have the same problems. Ware and maybe Ratliff are the only guys that can consistently get pressure. Rob Ryan is creative with his schemes but bringing extra guys to bring pressure compromises the integrity of the defense (e.g. the big LT screen at the end of the 1st half). I’m just glad that was Mark Sanchez and he only took limited advantage of the vulnerabilities. I expect we’re going to have plenty of opportunity to find out about the passing defense. When Brian Schottenheimer is calling 48 pass attempts that tells you teams are ready to test the pass defense.

NYJ 1&10 passes: the trend continues

Over the offseason I looked at the details of the Cowboys defensive performance in 2010. Turns out Dallas was terrible on 1st down against the pass (good read if you didn’t catch it before). So my ears pricked up when Collingsworth noted how frequently and successfully the NYJ were passing on 1st down.

Turnovers: the biggest overreaction

If there’s anything fans overreact about its turnovers. Turnovers are simply unpredictable. Plays like Romo’s fumble happen sometimes. It’s not a sign that Romo isn’t clutch. For the record, Romo has 17 lost fumbles in 6 seasons, or about 3 / year.

BTW, it amuses me because I was saying before the season that it’s silly to spend a lot of time worrying about turnovers. There’s simply a large element that you can’t control. Worry about the things you can control. All the time ‘practicing’ turnovers doesn’t matter if a DL and QB converge at just the right angle and DL hits the ball perfectly. Lots of people said ‘that ain’t so, turnovers can too be practiced’. I said ‘well, let’s see if Dallas is a leader in positive turnover margin’. Dallas turnover margin through week 1: zero.

Here’s are the most recent commentary I’ve seen about turnovers

there's one aspect of the Patriots' performance in 2010 that was both incredibly valuable and incredibly unlikely to remain at such a high level in 2011: Turnovers. Last season, the Patriots had a turnover margin of +28, which was the best figure in the league by 11 full turnovers. Second-place Pittsburgh was at +17, and the Steelers were closer to 10th place than they were to first. It was the most exaggerated turnover margin recorded by a team in 27 years, as the 1983 Redskins set an NFL record by recording 43 more takeaways than turnovers.

In the following season, the Redskins fell to +15; still good enough to be fourth-best in the league, but not anything resembling what they'd done the previous season. For the broader picture, consider the 31 teams from 1990 to 2009 that put up a turnover differential of +15 or greater. In the subsequent season, their margin fell by an average of 13 turnovers. Only one team was able to sustain a differential above +15 for consecutive seasons: the 2000 and 2001 Buccaneers (who actually then did it for a third consecutive season before falling to the pack). What the Patriots did last year just isn't a sustainable act.

And yes, we're even going to take down Tom Brady. During his stunning MVP campaign last season, Brady famously threw just four interceptions in 492 dropbacks, producing an obscene interception rate of 0.8 percent. That was the second-lowest rate for a passer in NFL history, and there's no way Brady will be able to repeat it. You can look at the record books yourself. Although there are one or two seasons from most of the great passers you would expect up there, nobody sustains an interception rate below even 2 percent from year to year, let alone that ridiculous 0.8 percent figure. Even if we assume Brady dips below his career average again and hits an even 2 percent in the same number of attempts, that would be 10 picks. Assuming he throws more frequently (since the Patriots ran a league-low 158 meaningful drives last season against a league average of 182.6), Brady could creep up toward 15 interceptions and it wouldn't be anything extraordinary. Just simple regression toward the mean.

Dez injured on a punt return

Can Dallas please stop using Dez to return kicks? The football gods have spoken and it’s been ugly enough. Let’s not make them angry.

Sean Lee

Sean Lee is such a relief. I feel 1000% better with Lee covering the LT’s and TEs than Bro’James (speaking of Bro’James … Brady was pretty much invisible Sunday night). You can see what a difference players make. In terms of the defense improving Lee is a huge piece.

Demarco Murray

I don’t have any basis for this but I just like this guy. Every time he touches the ball I feel like he’s going to take it to the house (the same way I feel about Felix).

Deep passes are back

Here’s something I haven’t seen mentioned: big passes are back. It looked like Dallas was willing to call slower developing plays Sunday night. And the line held up well. This is a very encouraging development.

I love this offense

I’m just gonna say it. I love this offense. Seriously. This offense is B-A-N-A-N-A-S. Everyone is a homerun threat. Dez, Austin, Felix, Witten. I don’t even care if Dallas wins. They’re just fun to watch. Example, 1&10 at their own 25, Romo hits Felix on a swing pass that goes for 19 yards. The 20 yard gain was nice but even better is that it was 1 tackle away from a 75 yard TD. This offense is going to be exciting.

Least favorite play

1:30 left in the 2nd quarter, Jets have a 2&1 at the Dallas 47. Ware gets a 6 yard sack and celebrates. Meanwhile, the defense fails to get ready for the next play, the Jets convert the 3rd down, and ultimately score aa TD. It seems like both the offense (delay of game penalties) and the defense (pre-snap confusion) could use a little less celebrating and a little more urgency.

2nd least favorite series of plays

Guess which plays I wasn’t crazy about? There’s a hint from Monday night’s game.

Quarter

Time

Down

Field Position

Rush/Pass

Result

2

14:42

1st

Dal 7

Rush

1

2

11:44

1st

Dal 9

Pass

11

2

11:11

1st

Dal 20

Rush

(3)

3

3:56

1st

Dal 11

Pass (Romo scramble)

7

Monday Night

4

5:57

1st

NE 1

Pass

99

Week 2

Offensive net pass YPA

Offensive net pass YPA Rank

Defensive net pass YPA

Defensive net pass YPA Rank

Dallas 2010

6.7

7th

6.8

28th

SF 2010

6.2

14th

6.3

22nd

The Week 2 matchup looks like it could produce an entertaining game. Instead of facing the 4th best pass D, Dallas faces the 22nd best pass D. I said in some comments, I think 30 points is a reasonable expectation. Dallas faces a slightly better offense this week, the 14th best pass offense (perfectly average) versus the 22nd best last week. Hopefully Dallas can improve on the 6.6 net pass YPA this week although they’re going against a slightly better passing offense. Again, playing on the road is a big disadvantage.

Go Dallas.

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.