FanPost

Statistically on Track

 

  Anyone remember my 'optimistic' stat projections for the season? No? Well I'm not surprised. Regardless, I know its early but I'd like to show the statistical pace our boys are playing at after a tough game. I think you'd be surprised how predictably good the Cowboys played. So, I'm going to show what I projected for the season, the per game breakdown, and the game stats relative to that breakdown.

Tony Romo:

AttemptsCompletions%YardsINTsTDs
Projection 532 357 64.4 4415 11 32
Breakdown 33.25 22.3 64.4 275.9 0.68 2
Week 1 36 23 63.9 342 1 2

 

I know, I know, Romo lost us the game blah blah blah. He had one interception which is pretty much predictable for him. Nothing changes there, and despite the circumstances of it, its just 'normal.' The bright side? He's due for a interception-less game or two coming up shortly (get it? coming up short? oh whatever). But, lets focus on the hard to ignore good. Romo's attempts, completions, and completion percentage are par for the course for his career for the most part. He deviated by just two attempts which knocked his % down by a touch. As far as yards are concerned he managed 23.9% over what I projected. If he keeps up that pace he'll be on track for a 5,472 yard season. A part of that was his posted 9.5 yards per attempt, I had projected 8.3. Finally, as predicted he threw 2 touchdowns, which I think will continue to do each game, could definitely be more. Heck, he almost had 3. Ugh*.

Jason Witten:

ReceptionsYardsAverageTDs
Projection 93 1010 10.8 6
Breakdown 5.8 63 10.8 0.37
Week 1 6 110 18.3 0

 

Witten had 6 receptions in the game which is nearly dead-on. However, like the other receivers, he overachieved on yards, by 74.6%. Look for Witten to get a touchdown within the next two games. He should have had one against the Jets. Ugh*.

Miles Austin:

ReceptionsYardsAverageTDs
Projection 79 1268 16 10
Breakdown 4.9 79.2 16 0.62
Week 1 5 90 18 1

Wow, the reception predictions are getting a little creepy. Miles performed as expected.

Dez Bryant:

ReceptionsYardsAverageTDs
Projection 78 1130 14.4 12
Breakdown 4.8 76 14.4 0.75
Week 1 3 71 23.7 1

 

Dez had 1 to 2 receptions less than what would be 'normal.' But, he still managed to get nearly as many yards as projected.

Felix Jones:

CarriesYardsYPCTDs
Projection 208 1040 5 8
Breakdown 13 65 5 0.5
Week 1 17 44 2.6 1

 

Against a top NFL defense we had to be down somewhere. The Jets were 3rd in rushing defense last year. Felix got 4 more carries than I would have expected, it'll be interesting to see if it stays that way or goes down. In order for him to get back on track in just the next game he'll need 86 yards on close to 11 carries.

DeMarcus Ware:

TacklesSacksFFumblesPDef
Projection 62 17 4 6
Breakdown 3.9 1.06 0.25 0.37
Week 1 4 2 0 0

 

Average tackles, and Mr. Ware has bought himself a whole game without a sack to still stay on pace. We shall see if my FFumbles and PDefended projections were too optimistic. He'll need to get a fumble within the next 3 games and a PDef within maybe the next 2 to stay on track.

Anthony Spencer:

TacklesSacksFFumblePDef
Projection 72 11 2 8
Breakdown 4.5 0.68 0.125 0.5
Week 1 3 1 1 0

 

Spencer performed better than most expected eh? He got himself a sack and already has one of the two fumbles I projected. Again we will see if PDef were overly optimistic. I'm looking forward to see him keep it up.

Secondary:

PDefSacksFFumbles
Projection 53 6 8
Breakdown 3.3 0.37 0.5
Week 1 2 1 1

 

Jenkins and Ball for the PDefs. Danny McCray for the sack fumble.

Jay Ratliff:

TacklesSacksPDefFFumbles
Projection 45 7 2 4
Breakdown 2.8 0.43 0.125 0.25
Week 1 1 0 0 0

 

Kindof a down game for Ratliff. I'd like to see him get a sack in the next two games.

Sean Lee:

TacklesPDefINTsSacks
Projection 75 5 3 4
Breakdown 4.6 0.3 0.18 0.25
Week 1 12 1 1 0

 

Drowning in a sea of Lee! I had pondered if this would be a breakout year for Lee, and its certainly shaping up that way. Lee more than doubled my tackle projection, he's a machine. We'll see if he can get a sack in the next 3 games.

So, thats a wrap on Week 1, and in my eyes the Boys are looking good. When I posted my season projections 48 people voted that I had been hitting the Kool Aid bong in dreaming up those stats. What say you now?

*Ugh

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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