Often times, week 1 results can't be trusted, as far as evaluating a team's worth. Coaches have months to prepare for that first opponent, to script game plans and target weaknesses. This particular off season, because of the lockout, coaches were sitting back with more idle time than any offensive mastermind should have because they couldn't interact with their own players. Defensive coaches, who by nature have to be more reactionary than proactive, would seem to be at a disadvantage.
After the Packers and Saints, two Top Ten defensive DVOA teams last season, exploded for 76 points on Thursday night, I opined that early in the NFL season, we could see potent offenses outplaying their defensive counterparts. This would be a trend that would be quite unusual compared to recent years. As such, I adjusted my predictions quite a bit from from earlier in the week.
Here's a look at Week One, average points scored total, over the last four years. 2008: 39.9 - 2009: 40.6 - 2010: 36.6.
On Tuesday of last week, I submitted my pick'em choices to O.C.C. and they were horrible, 7 out of 16 winners. By the time the weekend rolled around, I had adjusted some predictions and was able to go 8 for 10 picking straight up winners in the 10 for 10 contest; missing Dallas (who had it won) and Cleveland (who were winning until injuring QB Andy Dalton and the backup saved the day).
As far as not trusting Week One results, I think 2011 will be a bit of aberration there as well. Sure, Pittsburgh and San Francisco probably won't reproduce such results (not showing up, two special teams TDs, respectively), but I think several teams previewed what they are this year. I expect Kansas City, Detroit, Jacksonville, Tampa and the NY Giants to all have seasons like what we saw in Week One.
Follow the jump to see how my predictions from last week went, as well as this weeks, spreads, over unders and new prognostications.
Well, I got the Oakland-Denver game right, down to a tee. I predicted the Oakland road upset, and a score of 23-20. Unfortunately that was about the only thing from that post that was above average.
Straight Up: 3-2
ATS (Against the Spread) 6-6, 2 pushes, 2 closed lines
Week 2 NFL Odds and picks. Make sure to check out the 10 For 10 thread comments on Sunday morning. There are still a couple days left to ingest information, and my picks on Saturday night may be more accurate for straight up bettors.
Lines according to Bodog.com as of 1230pm
|Chicago @ New Orleans||Chicago||-7||@New Orleans||48||New Orleans||Chicago||Over||28-24|
|Kansas City @ Detroit||KC||-8.5||@Detroit||45.5||Detroit||Detroit||Over||30-17|
|Jacksonville @ NY Jets||Jacksonville||-9||@NY Jets||39||Jets||Jets||Under||24-10|
|Oakland @ Buffalo||Oakland||-3.5||@Buffalo||43.5||Oakland||Oakland||Over||24-21|
|Arizona @ Washington||Arizona||-4||@ Washington||45||Washington||Washington||Over||28-21|
|Baltimore @ Tennessee||@Tennessee||-6.5||Baltimore||38||Baltimore||Baltimore||Push||24-14|
|Seattle @ Pittsburgh||Seattle||-14.5||@Pittsburgh||40.5||Pittsburgh||Seattle||Over||30-17|
|Green Bay @ Carolina||@Carolina||-10||Green Bay||47||Green Bay||Green Bay||Under||31-13|
|Tampa Bay @ Minnesota||Tampa||-3||@Minny||42||Tampa Bay||Tampa||Under||24-14|
|Cleveland @ Indianapolis||@Indy||-3||Cleveland||40||Indy||Indianpolis||Over||24-20|
|Dallas @ San Francisco||San Fran||-3||Dallas||42.5||Dallas||Dallas||Over||28-21|
|Houston @ Miami||@Miami||3||Houston||48||Miami||Miami||Under||28-26|
|San Diego @ New England||San Diego||7||@New England||54.5||San Diego||San Diego||Under||27-24|
|Cincinnati @ Denver||Cincy||3.5||@Denver||40||Cincy||Cincy||Over||21-17|
|Philadelphia @ Atlanta||@Atlanta||3||Philly||50||Atlanta||Atlanta||Under||24-21|
|St. Louis @ NY Giants||Rams||No Line||Giants||---||Giants||--||---||---|