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Yard Stick Wk3: Final Evaluation

In my previous two post, we observed the Total Net Yards that the Cowboys have allowed and the Redskins have gained. We took time to see the Cowboys' Offense vs the Redskins' Defense, which shows that the Cowboys should run for more yards then previous games, but pass for less yards. We even took time to observe the Cowboys' defensive efficiency vs the Redskins' offensive efficiency.

This time around, we'll finish off the evaluation of this match-up with what we expect the Redskins' Offense to gain in rushing yards and passing yards, along with Time of Possession and how much points the defenses have allowed so far.

WAREWOLVES

WAREWOLVES

Redskins net Rushing Yards
net Avg/Play
Rushing Plays
vs NYG
74 2.8 26
vs ARZ 172 4.9 35
Total 246 4.0 61

The Redskins are averaging 30 runs a game and we can expect them to try to run the ball on the Cowboys that many times. It's clear they like to establish the run and even though they were averaging a measly 2.8 yards a run against the Giants, they kept running.

Cowboys net Rushing Yards Allowed
net Avg/Play Allowed
Rushing Plays Against
vs NYJ
45 2.8 16
vs SF 74 3.1 24
Total 119 3.0 40

As nervous as we were about the run defense of the Cowboys during the preseason, we can clearly see that they are relentless against the run. The Jets had to play catch up in the second half, but even early in the game they had to pass because the run was going no where.

Teams Total net Rushing Yards
Total net Avg/Play
Total Rushing Plays
Cowboys D
119 2.9 40
Redskins O
246 4.0 61
Expected 91 3.6 25

Comparing the Redskins' Run Offense and the Cowboys' Run Defense, the stats tell us that we can expect the Redskins to run the ball from 25 to 30 times averaging around 3 to 3.6 yards a run, gaining 90 yards on ground. I definitely don't expect them to gain over a 100 yards on the ground in this game.

However, I do think that these numbers are a little inflated due to the poor run defense of the Cardinals. I'm expecting the Redskins to do more of what they did against the Giants, putting up around 75 yards with an average of 3 yards a play.

Redskins net Passing Yards
net Avg/Play
Passing Plays
vs NYG
258 6.8 38
vs ARZ 283 6.4 44
Total 541 6.6 82

The Redskins average 41 passes a game and Monday night won't be any different. Look for them to pass 40 times against the Cowboys and test our secondary.

Cowboys net Passing Yards Allowed
net Avg/Play Allowed
Passing Plays Against
vs NYJ
315 6.6 48
vs SF 132 4.4 30
Total 447 5.7 78

Similarly, defenses are averaging 39 passes a game against the Cowboys, which is another reason to expect 40 passes from the Redskins. The difference is that the Cowboys are allowing an average of, almost, a complete yard less then what the Redskins are gaining.

Teams Total net Passing Yards
Total net Avg/Play
Total Passing Plays
Cowboys D
447 5.7 78
Redskins O
541 6.6 82
Expected 247 6.1 40

The stats tell us that we should look for the Redskins to gain 247 passing yards in this games, averaging 6.1 per play in 40 passing plays. Slightly above our average, but it'll be below average for them.

I personally see a similar situation here as in the Redskins' Run Offense. Our numbers were made better by the fact that the Niners aren't a good passing team to begin with. However, the Redskins have been passing for under 300 yards and there won't be any different in this game.

Plus, Rex Grossman is as bad as Alex Smith when under pressure. Enough pressure will make things go south real quick for the Redskins.

Teams Total net Yards
Total net Avg/Play
Total Plays
Cowboys D
566 4.8 118
Redskins O
787 5.5 143
Expected 338 5.2 65

According to the stats, we should be expecting the Redskins to run around 65 plays, gaining around 338 yards and averaging 5.2 yards a play. Again, both team's stats were made to look good due to poor teams they faced in the 2nd week; even though they were close games. Nonetheless, the stats are there and this is what they are telling us to expect from both teams.

Teams Total net Yards
Total net Avg/Play
Total Plays
Cowboys O
862 6.5 132
Redskins D
639 6.1 104
Expected 375 6.4 59

The stats tell us that there is an expectancy of  375 total yards gained by the Cowboys' Offense, averaging 6.4 yards a play in 59 total plays. This is completely possible, but the Redskins haven't really put too much pressure on the previous two quarterbacks.

The Cowboys are averaging 66 plays a game, while opposing teams are averaging 52 plays a game against the Redskins. That's 14 plays less! Obviously, the Redskins have yet to play an explosive offensive.

With Romo healthy, Dez healthy and the OLine protecting well, we should expect another 66 plays. Keeping the same 6.4 average, I expect the Cowboys to gain 422 total net yards.

Time of Possession

Week Cowboys
Redskins
Week 1
33:53 32:26
Week 2
32:10 38:30
Total 65:03 70:56

The Cowboys are averaging 32:32 a game, while the Redskins are averaging 35:28 a game. Both teams have held the ball longer then their opponents and both teams have ran the ball more times than their opponents as well, except for the Cowboys-Ninger's game. Where the Niners ran the ball 2 more times then the Cowboys, but that's because the Cowboys didn't run the ball at all in overtime.

Expect to see the Redskins hold the ball longer then the Cowboys on Monday night because the Redskins will run the ball about 30 times in that game. However, don't expect to see too much of a time different. Maybe about a 5 minute difference.

Conclusion

Points Allowed Cowboys
Redskins
Week 1
17 14
Week 2
21 21
Total 38 36

This is looking like another high scoring game. The Redskins' defense allowed 3 TDs to the Cardinals and 2 TDs to the Giants, for a total of 36 points allowed. That's an average of 17.5 points a game. Similarly, the Cowboys' Defense allowed 17 points by the Jets and 21 points by the Niners. That's a total of 38 points and an average of 19 points a game.

The above doesn't include FGs that were made when the offense started in field goal range. We can be looking at another 24-27 game as both defenses are expected to give up 17 points each. Even though it is possible, some may be looking for a blowout by the Cowboys; however, the stats don't suggest this.

Although the yardage will be completely different, both offenses score similarly. The Cowboys allowed one of the weakest offenses, 49ers, to score the most points on them so far this season. Top rushing defense and sack leaders, I still expect to see the Cowboys give up between 17 and 21 points in the Monday Night game.

Maybe the addition of Terence Newman can change this. This is yet to be seen, though. What the stats are suggesting is that a big play by defense or special teams and field positioning will be the deciding factor on the winner of this game.

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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