Defense Wins Championships - True as Ever in 2011

Just a note… and let me be clear… NO GUARD OR CENTER has been plucked past the 2nd round. The odds of getting a good Guard in the first is 26% after that it drops to 2.3% so you would have to draft 98 Guards in hopes of finding 1 diamond in the rough. You take DeCastro if he’s there… sorry you can draft DB’s and DL in the later rounds your odds are better.

DBs are 7.6% and OLB/DE are 8% thats a 3-4x better shot.

Take DeCastro in the 1st then go DBA OLB/DE/CB/S 2nd and 3rd… this is the smartest bet.

I would still take DeCastro at 14… it’s a no-brainer. I would be willing to draft defense first if there wasn’t a stud all-pro graded Guard waiting there for us to pick him and no DE/OLB/DB that grades even close. DeCastro is a top 2 pick but because he’s a guard he won’t get that much attention … Konz at Center is a top 5 talent… but again will drop to the 2nd round. If you can get him… then you take him too. It’s just the best way solidify one area of your team without blowing out the bank. Draft Defense with the rest of the draft… then if you suck on defense it won’t matter as much because your offense scores 35 pts a game.

Couldnt be more clear after seeing what the Giants and Niners did over the weekend. Drafting a Guard in the first round doesnt help our biggest needs this offseason which is rebuilding the defense. If we dont fix the defense it doesnt matter how good our OL is because we wont win games like you saw over the weekend.

that Turnovers are random

A pressure player is a pressure player, either way you need more of them

Their defense gave them the ball 5 times and the offense didn’t do much with it. The 49ers defense has carried that team to the NFC championship game.

And it’s not just this year, either. In 2009 and 2010 the Jets had an offense that was completely unnoteworthy helmed by bad Mark Sanchez and they made it to the conference championship too.

It’s not to say that offense is better than defense or vice versa, the point is that you can’t ignore a defense. You need a good defense to win in the post-season.

then I guess I could live with the pick. I just am not so sure that will be the case. Great pass rushers can slip into the early teens and I would love to get someone to ensure that D-Ware doesn’t have to do it all himself.

First off, like you said, you have to look to FA first for some help. I think a CB like Finnegan is probably the best way to go although I would love to take a look at Michael Griffin at S as well. Regardless, you have to use FA to shore up that secondary so you don’t have to use a first round pick on it.

After that, the first thing to do would be to pray that Calais Campbell hits FA. Barring that though, you can do a couple different things. You could go after Cliff Avril to replace Anthony Spencer (which I actually think he would be down for). You could go after Andre Carter, hoping that he can recover from his leg injury. You could go after a big nosetackle like Aubrayo Franklin to move Ratliff over. Either way, there are a couple things you can do.

And then of course there is the draft. Address the defense in the first three rounds and you are off to a great start on turning over maybe four starters from last year’s defense with the combine FA focus (Newman, Spencer, Coleman/Spears, Brooking/James, Elam).

Did you all even watch the games… are you trying to tell me that you would rather have T-OLD and BALL playing CB next year… u r kidding right. Think all this about the pass rush. 1. Our pass rush isn’t that bad… screaming for help so to speak… but our secondary is. Say we cover the guys like we’re supposed to say like the Gnats did against GB or close… then that 1 sec that allowed Manning to get away from Spencer no longer exist and he’s sacked. Imagine having a team with a good safety and two good corners. The DL is not a major problem yet… this is a long term growth process you hit the areas of immediate need immediately. You don’t throw caution to the wind and hope they will get better. DeCastro… is choice 1, and after that it’s CB’s and Safety… maybe if the good lord willin and a train don’t run we can choose an OLB/DE in the 3rd to 5th and even with a little luck get a back up for Romo in the later rounds.

Did you all even watch the games… are you trying to tell me that you would rather have T-OLD and BALL playing CB next year… u r kidding right. Think all this about the pass rush. 1. Our pass rush isn’t that bad… screaming for help so to speak… but our secondary is. Say we cover the guys like we’re supposed to say like the Gnats did against GB or close… then that 1 sec that allowed Manning to get away from Spencer no longer exist and he’s sacked. Imagine having a team with a good safety and two good corners. The DL is not a major problem yet… this is a long term growth process you hit the areas of immediate need immediately. You don’t throw caution to the wind and hope they will get better. DeCastro… is choice 1, and after that it’s CB’s and Safety… maybe if the good lord willin and a train don’t run we can choose an OLB/DE in the 3rd to 5th and even with a little luck get a back up for Romo in the later rounds.

Did you all even watch the games… are you trying to tell me that you would rather have T-OLD and BALL playing CB next year… u r kidding right. Think all this about the pass rush. 1. Our pass rush isn’t that bad… screaming for help so to speak… but our secondary is. Say we cover the guys like we’re supposed to say like the Gnats did against GB or close… then that 1 sec that allowed Manning to get away from Spencer no longer exist and he’s sacked. Imagine having a team with a good safety and two good corners. The DL is not a major problem yet… this is a long term growth process you hit the areas of immediate need immediately. You don’t throw caution to the wind and hope they will get better. DeCastro… is choice 1, and after that it’s CB’s and Safety… maybe if the good lord willin and a train don’t run we can choose an OLB/DE in the 3rd to 5th and even with a little luck get a back up for Romo in the later rounds.

For what? One year fix to make them an elite team or one year to get them in the playoffs? Look the Giants got WORSE than they were last year (as a whole) and they made the playoffs. I think they can easily make the changes to win the NFC East next season, you’re crazy if you don’t think it’s possible, they were one win away this year and 8-8…adding two wins is impossible? If they’re in the playoffs they automatically have a chance to go all the way. However, if you’re talking about assembling a team that’s arguably the best in the NFL, yeah I think it’ll take two years.

But it’s a process. To assemble a team that’s arguably the best team in the NFL first they have to assemble a playoff team. The NFL is a system driven league, teams implement system that works for them and see what changes they need to make to make the team elite. First you have to get a working system in there. I think they’re on the right track. By all objective means they improved under Rob and Garrett at the helm of the offense and defenses. I think they need to first get a good offensive line in place and a running game. See how the offense works with four great targets, an improved OL, and a feature running back. Give Rob a few actual NFL quality CBs and maybe some help in the pass rush. Further identify the weaknesses that separate you from being elite and fix the ones you can fix.

I however, believe it is doable.

Turnovers may largely be random, but I would never completely discount the ability of players to create turnovers. Turnovers can’t be completely random when you can see the difference in abilities between Asante Samuel and Terrance Newman to create turnovers.

As an aside, the case of Samuel versus Newman is an interesting one. On average, since 2003, Samuel only averages about an interception and a half more than Newman. However, the average fails to take into account the variance of those numbers. Four times Samuel has had more than 6 INTs. Newman has had 5 INTs just once. So, you can see that there is a strong element of randomness in turnovers, but nonetheless it appears that some players are just better at producing them.

Regardless, the point is that I believe that players do matter somewhat when it comes to turnovers. Saying that, I am not sure this defense can just easily change into the turnover producing machines that GB and NE are. I think they could definitely get near them with increased chances, but I would still say that I would focus on improving our talent so that we are better all the time and better when it comes to turnovers as well.

As far as the second question, I actually have an interesting theory on this one. I am not sure a Jason Garrett offense is ever going to get on par with GB and NO. I personally feel our system is not good enough to be that elite. I don’t think it is as much the offensive line as people want to believe (eg. look at the injuries on GB’s line over the past few years). I don’t really think it is Tony either. I just think it is the system. GB and NO spread you out, still mix in the run, but are much better at giving their QBs a bunch of hot routes to beat back blitzers. That is why Brees and Rodgers are generally so untouchable. Not because their O-lines are so great, but because by the time you get to them, the ball is already gone. This is also known as Peyton Manning syndrome, where an O-line looks great stat-wise with a great QB behind them and then terrible with Curtis Painter behind them.

Unless Garrett is willing to commit to a more spread offense that utilizes our players better (e.g. Felix as Sproles), I just don’t see our offense every becoming as unstoppable as NO or GB. The eye test says there is just something better about those offenses, and I don’t think it’s definitely the offensive line. I don’t think it is Tony either. I think it is the system. I like Garrett and think he is a fine coach for the Cowboys, but I have come to think that we may only ever be good or great with him. I just can’t see us ever being as dominating as GB or NO.

Also, here is one more interesting thought: The last time the Cowboys were in the top five in scoring was in 2007. What also was going on that year? The Cowboys had a top five defense in opposing QB rating and were top six in yards per attempt. Maybe by helping this defense, we will be giving our offense the ability to be elite.

They allowed Alex Smith to burn them consistently and couldn’t make any plays when they needed to (Roman Harper and Malcom Jenkins are both respectably awful). Do you still think they were happy after the game with their team structure of elite offense and terrible defense?

The ability to generate pressure with four guys or less (or only one guy in the case of Justin Smith).

The Giants have managed to get lucky and improve…the two aren’t mutually exclusive.