Is the Super Bowl Window Slamming Shut
by TK19 on Jan 19, 2012 3:53 PM CST
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Over the last several months I have seen some claim we should try and trade commodities such as Romo, Ware, Austin and Witten while they still have value.
The reason behind this is, they claim, the core of the Dallas Cowboys is getting older and there is little to no chance of rebuilding the talent in time for these players to make a run at a championship.
After looking at the roster, I see only five - possibly six - players who will be counted on in the 2012 season who will be over the 30 year old mark.
The truth is, in two years the Cowboys have gone from having an old roster to having players either in their prime or about to enter their prime.
For the 2012 season Jay Ratliff (31) and DeMarcus Ware (30) will be the only major contributors over 30 on defense. The Cowboys seem ready to move on from veterans Keith Brooking (37), Bradie James (32) and Terrance Newman (34). There is a possibility Newman will be brought back, but the Cowboys can save money by cutting him, and his salary and production are no longer in the same state (even if the state is Texas).
Offensively Tony Romo (32) and Jason Witten (30) will be the old men on the block. Kyle Kosier will be 34 in 2012, but if the Cowboy can find a suitable replacement for him, it would not cost the team to cut him from a salary cap standpoint (I think it would be around 1.5 M to cut him and approximately 2.1 M to keep him).
Long snapper L.P. Ladoucer (31) and punter Mat McBriar (33) are the only other contributors over 30 on the roster, and McBriar is in danger of being let go depending on his recovery from injury and the development of 23 year old punter Chris Jones.
Now, it is true, the Romo, Ratliff, Ware and Witten are the core of this team and have more good years behind them than ahead of them. But it is not unfathomable to see another three or four years of good production from this group.
Of the four only Ratliff has taken a step back in terms of production. Some may say Witten is declining, but in 2011 he set or tied career highs in average yards per catch (11.9), catches of 20 or more yards (15) and catches of 40 or more yards (2). He still had 79 receptions for 942 yards and five touchdowns.
Ware finished with his second highest sack total, 19.5, and is a half sack away from eclipsing 100 sacks for his career. Romo had arguably one of the best years of his career.
So while these stars are still capable of carrying this team despite their over 30 status, other players are about to enter the part of their respective careers where they will be expected to step into major production roles.
On offense, DeMarco Murray (24), Dez Bryant (24), and Tyron Smith (22) are players who could take on a much larger role and have yet to enter their prime years. Miles Austin (28) and Doug Free (29) are player who are in their prime years of production.
Add in players like John Phillips (25), Phillip Tanner (24), David Arkin (25) Kevin Kowalski (24), Bill Nagy (25) and Jeremy Parnell (26), and the Cowboys have a chance to develop a young core of players who can contribute.
Defensively Sean Lee (26) seems to be the only player capable of reaching the Ware/Ratliff level on a consistent basis. Mike Jenkins (27) has shown flashes of brilliance as well as moments of ineptitude. Jenkins has also been plagued by injuries which hamper his effectiveness.
Players who are in their prime years on defense include Marcus Spears (29), Jason Hatcher (30), Gerald Sensabaugh (29) and Jenkins.
Back in December, Gerald Sensabaugh signed a six-year $25 million contract, but only $8 million is guaranteed. Sensabaugh has proven to be a reliable, but unspectacular safety option. Similar to Sensabuagh the Cowboys locked up cornerback Orlando Scandrick (25) in August, inking him to a six-year $28.2 million contract with $10 million guaranteed. Jenkins is scheduled to be a free agent in 2013, but the trio of Scandrick, Sensabaugh and Jenkins are likely to be the core players in the secondary for the foreseeable future.
In terms of development the pickings are slim, Clifton Geathers (25), Sean Lissemore (25), Alex Albright (24), Victor Butler (25), Bruce Carter (24), Orie Lemon (25), Mario Butler (24), Barry Church (24), Danny McCray (24) and Justin Taplin-Ross (23) are all prospects with varying degrees of expectations pinned on them.
The Cowboys roster is full of players who are either in, or about to be in the prime of their years. There are still numerous holes to fill, but there are potential gems hidden on this roster capable of filling those holes.
There are also players like Tony Fiammetta (26), Laurent Robinson (27) and Anthony Spencer (28) who are under 30 and could be brought back in 2012.
If Cowboys have a smart off season where they are aggressive in free agency and have another good draft, there is potential for this team in 2012 to make a run at an NFC East title and playoff berth. The window for Romo, Witten, Ware and Ratliff is most assuredly beginning to slide closed, but by no means is it slamming shut.
A few shrewd moves here and there by the organization and there is a good chance the Cowboys will have the talent to give the core "old guys" a chance at a championship.
Just for fun, here is my ranking of Cowboy players 26 or younger (for 2012 season) - feel free to discuss, dissect or dismiss in the comment section.
1. Sean Lee (26) - Potential to turn into an elite MLB in the NFL
2. Tyron Smith (22) - Monster rookie season, if he transitions to LT and plays well there, could move into the top spot
3. Dez Bryant (24) - Receivers tend to break out in their third year, Bryant has the talent to be an elite WR in the NFL
4. DeMarco Murray (24) - Injury history is a concern, but the talent in undeniable
5. Dan Bailey (24) - Is he the answer to the Cowboys kicking woes
6. Felix Jones (25) - He is a better complementary back than lead guy, but defenses have to account for him when he is on the field
7. Orlando Scandrick (25) - Inconsistency has hurt him, but he can be a top flight cover guy at times
8. Sean Lissemore (25) - Seemed to improve every game, had to transition to the NFL from William & Mary and 2012 will be his third year in the NFL - could be a fast riser up this list next training camp
9. Bruce Carter (24) - Expectations will be sky high for the second year player out of North Carolina, showed flashes on special teams - can he replace James/Brooking and be the other half of the deadly "Bruce Lee" combo. He has the talent to move to the top of this list
10. David Arkin (25) - I am higher on Arkin than some, I think he will turn some heads in training camp 2012
11. Victor Butler (25) - After three years in the NFL Butler is who he is, a good backup
12. Barry Church (24) - Good special teams player who has potential as a backup safety and nickel LB
13. Kevin Kowalski (24) - Played well (for a rookie) when asked to come in, excited to see what Callahan and Co. can do with a full off season
14. Bill Nagy (25) - See Kevin Kowalski
15. Danny McCray (24) - Excellent on special teams, good depth player
16. Clifton Geathers (25) - Made a few good plays in preaseason
17. Orie Lemon (25) - Intriguing thumper of an ILB, probably never more than a backup
18. Mario Butler (24) - Needs to improve from rookie campaign, has some skills - could be a replacement for Alan Ball
19. Alex Albright (24) - Good training camp followed by disappearing act in preseason
20. Justin Taplin-Ross (23) - Really liked him coming out of Utah, Jerome Henderson will have several young guys he needs to "coach up"
Summary of my top 20 players 26 and under.
The top six players are all already major contributors to the team. I'm not a huge Scandrick fan, but all the players after him either have less experience or less talent. Lissemore, Carter and Arkin are going to be my players to watch in 2012.
Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.
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The Sky Is Falling!!!!! The Sky Is Falling!!!!!!
get rid of the veteran core of players while we still have hope of possibly getting more draft picks that ould turn out to be busts and give us more reason to roast our god awful GM as he obviously has no ability to uncover talent that will help this team grow and become the dominant juggernaut that we know it can become if only I were calling the shots in the War Room come draft day…………sarcasm meter set to high, however if it sounds at all familiar feel free to shoot the messenger….will only help to thin out the gene pool…..
Good Luck to the 53. Stand with Honor, Play With Pride. Bring It Home
by TruBluToTheCore on Jan 20, 2012 7:37 AM CST reply actions
I know right lol
"How 'Bout them Cowboys!"---Jimmy Johnson
"...and the Cowboys...STUN the Bills!"--ESPN MNF
No, but it is swinging closed
there are a few years left (i would say 3 at the outside) with the group we have before we see a “real” rebuilding
He who laughs last, thinks slowest
"Pleased to meet you, hope you guess my name"
"Really love your peaches, want to shake your tree"
For Romo , Rat , Ware and Witten it closed vs the Giants in 07....
that was their best opportunity at a superbowl. The 07 team was actually pretty good. Wade however was the wrong kind of coach for that team. Wade is not a finisher. His track record said so. Still does.
Now this team invents ways to lose games. Nothing those four players can do. There isn’t much talent around them. Jerry playing gm has wasted their careers.
(shrug)
Jerry is the end all in Dallas.
absolutely not true at all
Those guys will have much better opportunities under Garrett as a HC in the next couple of years once we improve our OL and defense.
In Romo we Trust
What if it takes 3 years to do that ?
Those guys will right at the end of their career’s and Rat might get there sooner.
Jerry is the end all in Dallas.
by football mensa on Jan 20, 2012 8:51 AM CST up reply actions
I think there is about a 3-year window
for Romo, Witt and Ware.
QB’s can play until their mid-thirties, Jason just seems to find a way to get it done, and Ware doesn’t seem to be slowing down yet.
The Cowboys need to keep putting together successful drafts (I would consider the last two to be successful so far) and fill holes through FA without putting the team in salary cap hell. If they can do that, there is no reason to think they won’t have the talent to compete for championships.
There are multiple holes on the team, but these holes are not insurmountable. It will not take much to take an average team to a championship team if the front office is smart (and I know your feeling on the intellect of the owner/GM).
"There are no traffic jams along the extra mile." ~ Roger Staubach
agree with you on Rat
he seems to be declining faster than the others.
"There are no traffic jams along the extra mile." ~ Roger Staubach
Elway was at the end of his career when he got his first ring
Ray Lewis is still playing tough at the age of 36 so no doubt in my mind Romo, Ware, Rat and Witten will all still be playing at a high level in 3 years.
In Romo we Trust
really?
I have tons of doubts. I’ve seen ratliff’s production drop off, Romo get hammered a few times a year, Witten though hes still an excellent receiver does not have the mobility he used to, and Ware has now had multiple worrying neck injuries in 3 years.
If we get an OL, I think Romo and Ware will last the longest. Witten will continue to play at a high level, though I think the younger TEs will pass him shortly. Ratliff I am very worried about.
Here's my problem with your analysis:
It does not distinguish flukes from age/ talent/ ability.
This past season, “icing” and blocked kicks and other such bungling did indeed seem to constitute “inventing ways to lose games.” But we don’t invent ways to lose games because Romo/ Rat/ Ware/ Witten are past their primes. We don’t invent ways to lose games because we don’t have talented young guys who are getting better.
Arguably, the flukey ways we’ve been beat are merely random noise. Arguably, they are parts of team culture. If the first, they’re no more likely next season (or the one after) just because they happened this season. If the second, team culture may take a little bit of time (say, an actual off-season) to change. JG may be just as much of a joke as Wade, but he may not. I’d at least wait until he had been head coach for a real training camp. I’d like to see if he moves past his rookie mistakes (not handling the clock well when he is both OC and HC).
Now, the way our secondary has played is not flukey and has nothing to do with inventing ways to lose games—it has been reliably bad. It may take us longer to fix the secondary than just one off-season. And, of course, even a really good team—like the 07 team, or the team that the Cowboys mayonce again be in a year or two—can be beat by another really good team. But don’t give up on this group quite yet.
Sean Lee is 26 already?
ugh…gotta love drafting 24-year old rookies (Lee, Newman, etc).
At least Tyron is but a baby, looking forward to him being around for a decade or longer.
If they can come out of this off-season with 3-4 more starters that are young, it will go a long way toward propping the window open for a bit longer.
technically he's not 26 yet
he’ll turn 26 in July 2012. He wasn’t that old for a rookie, but did have a 5-year college career (medical redshirt).
"There are no traffic jams along the extra mile." ~ Roger Staubach
I've never really bought the whole "window is closing" idea
because every team is aging. While Romo is a year older next year, so is Brees, Brady, and Eli. If we’re scouting correctly and JG is making the decisions, developing players, then we should be fine. This is also why you draft BPA, so you can grab your future Wares, Romos, and Wittens, and fill in the holes in free agency.
"How 'Bout them Cowboys!"---Jimmy Johnson
"...and the Cowboys...STUN the Bills!"--ESPN MNF
agree with you on the window should never be closing for the Dallas Cowboys as a team
but the end is closer than the beginning for Ware, Witten, Romo and Rat
"There are no traffic jams along the extra mile." ~ Roger Staubach
yeah, that closing window thing is garbage
With a great HC who can consistently evaluate talent and add it each year, the window is never closed…just look at the Pats.
In Romo we Trust
We don't compare to the Pats. We don't have the leadership of the Pats.
We don’t have the same mantra as the Pats. We aren’t the Pats. Terrible comparison. Same for the Steelers.
Jerry is the end all in Dallas.
by football mensa on Jan 20, 2012 9:59 AM CST up reply actions
We don't know what leadership we have.
We know that Wade was a cupcake and that Jerry was running the show. We know that some things have improved under JG, and other things haven’t. We don’t know whether Jerry is giving JG authority, or even whether JG is the sort of guy to use it right. That’s because it takes a rookie head coach with no offseason a little bit of time to establish his way.
Every “leadership” move JG has made so far—drafting and free agency, getting good coordinators and assistant coaches, etc.—has looked pretty smart. He’s also flubbed some things (such as game-planning), but that’s not leadership, it’s experience.
Again—you may be right. We may have terrible leadership. We may have good leadership. We don’t know yet. But comparing us to the Pats is simply an example of how we should (and even could) handle our improvement, year to year, incrementally.
JG has looked good so far with drafts, moves...etc
but we don’t have enough knowledge yet to know if he is smart or if he has the authority we hope he does.
"How 'Bout them Cowboys!"---Jimmy Johnson
"...and the Cowboys...STUN the Bills!"--ESPN MNF
This I can tell you without impunity
Kraft isn’t pretending to be a gm. That’s all you need to know.
Jerry is the end all in Dallas.
by football mensa on Jan 20, 2012 5:37 PM CST up reply actions
I am a glass is half full sort of guy when it comes to the Cowboys
IMO Romo will be great another 5 years and maybe more once the OL gets better. Some of the other guys mentioned may slow down in 3-4 years but a Ware getting 12-15 sacks is still pretty darn good. JG is our best coach since JJ and he has a better team than JJ had when he started. It would be a push to play in the Super Bowl next year but 2013 seems very possible. To trade Rat, Witten, Romo or Ware now would be insane.
When Brady leaves let's see how long that window remains open.
Jerry is the end all in Dallas.
by football mensa on Jan 20, 2012 5:39 PM CST up reply actions
hmmm
was the superbowl window for this team really open this year or 2010 or 2009? We have not been among the league’s elite for a while now.
I would say theres the possibility the window could open back up in 2012 or 2013 with some excellent drafts and signings.
If Dez and Tyron develop, Free returns to his excellent self at RT and we improve the interior OL, I think its possible our window stays open once Romo is gone. And that’s why I have faith in Garrett. So far I’ve liked almost every personnel move he has made, and I think we have a bright future.
Agreed, though I'd stretch it to '13-'14.
This team needs to take good solid baby-steps. Let’s get to playoff team before superbowl window.
Get-rich-quick schemes usually don’t pan out well.
" ... Any one of 500 coaches could have won those Super Bowls." Jones later denied saying such a thing -- sober. So he qualified it with, yet another, infamous quote: It "was just the whiskey talking."
"...it may be the whiskey talkin', but the whiskey says I miss you, everyday..."- Fountains of Wayne
It's not slamming shut, but it's slowly creeping.
They need to get it right in this year’s draft and free agnecy. If they do, expect a very competitive team, 10-6 or 11-5. If not, more of the same 8-8, 7-9.
by beautifultyrant on Jan 20, 2012 1:46 PM CST reply actions
The Window Never Closes! Isn't that great news? Welcome to the watered-down NFL.
With a Caveat: You have a very good QB.
Look at Detroit. Chicago. Houston. San Fran.
The “Window” analogy is left over from the (much better) old days, when teams kept guys their whole careers. With Free Agency and a Salary Cap, the window is closed on no one, as long as you have a more than decent QB. (And just a decent one if you have a great defense.)
Romo has easily 4-5 good years left. Good drafts and smart FA signings and this team can compete for 5 more years, although the coaching will have to improve for that to happen.
Pessimists say the cup is half-empty, while optimists say it's half-full. Well, the real question is, is it a good beer? Realist Larry, 2011
The NFL's title contenders, year in and year out, have continuity at the 3 touchstones of a great franchise; GM, Coach and QB
In that respect, I wonder if our window has really been as open as many thought.
"Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?"
Barely to nope.,
Jerry is the end all in Dallas.
great post TK
"Fear the Star" -A WISE Man!
by mho on Jan 21, 2012 11:32 PM CST via iPhone app reply actions
The suprerbowl window is closing
You eventually are going to have to replace Ware.
How are we going to replace Ware? Easier said than done. Remember Larry English and the Chargers when they tried to replace Shaun Merriman?
However there is a player in college right now that can be every bit as good as Ware.
I don't know if its as big a deal as you're making it sound
Do you really need a future first ballot HOFer on defense? Do the Pats or Giants have that? Did the Saints or Colts have that? The steelers have at least one, and the Packers probably have one,but I don’t see why we would trade an entire draft for one player like I’ve seen you suggest.
sure, right now, I can’t imagine this D without Ware, but thats because the rest of the D pretty much blows. But Ware has been the best defensive player for a while now, and it hasn’t gotten us anywhere. We need more talent, period. Outside Ware, Lee and maybe Ratliff, I cannot name a single other above average player on our D. The next in line may well be Anthony Spencer
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