O-Ring Theory and the Dallas Cowboys: 2 Years Later

We have the money to spend, but if we think a Mario Williams is going to solve all our ills we are in for another bad December.

The trend in-house for younger players is a good one. Many of out old heads got released in the salary cap purging. We cannot fix everything at this time. I say we fight the urge to switch years i.e. last year was for the O, this year is for the D.

I’m saying we should double down on our efforts to fix the O. Getting 2 or 3 interior OL will help us to win more games immediately. Nicks and Konz will do nicely for us. Andrew Datko would be a nice swing T if he can be had in the 5th or 6th round.

The problem is that somebody has to play CB and S. And rush the passer. If we have the money for a splash FA on D it should be Campbell if he’s not franchised. We wil have to draft 2 or 3 guys to play in our secondary soon. I hope the new secondary coach is worth his salt.

Last thing: Why the heck can’t our scouts find an UDFA S or CB like they can find on offense? Or even late rounders?

The one thing I would add is that you don’t necessarily have to overreact in fixing that faulty O-ring. It doesn’t need to be a diamond-encrusted, gold-covered O-ring.

A good, solid O-ring should do the job just fine. And once you’ve fixed those two leaky O-rings, the question becomes what’s the next weakest link?

Spend thrifty and wise at the expensive FA shop and use these more expensive but more used parts only if a bargain can be found.

Living on a budget means long term success.

I mean elite OLB horrible DE on the opposite side attack that side right?

And the only thing I would add that as much as Alan Ball was the O-ring in 2010, you can’t forget just how much of an O-ring Marc Colombo was as well. O-ring theory was largely the reasoning behind my supporting of Tyron Smith’s drafting.

This year, obviously center, CB, S, and the lack of a pass rush outside of D-Ware (especially since Spencer seems to be gone) would stand out as potential O-rings. Unfortunately, center and S don’t seem to match up as potential spots to look with our first pick. Barron is not worth #14 and I am not so sure Konz is either. In addition, unless Dre falls (which he won’t unless he has a bad combine) or the team is willing to take a shot on Janoris Jenkins, I don’t see the corner value matching up either. So, by my estimation, you are left looking at OLB and DE at #14 (ILB and G are other needs that some could argue for).

Obviously I have campaigned for an OLB and the combine will definitely answer a lot of questions as to whether there is a guy that warrants that #14 spot. As for DE, I only really see Brockers as an option that could actually rush the passer from the 5-technique unless you think a guy like Fletcher Cox will just destroy the combine. The downside is that if Brockers does kill the combine and show pass-rushing ability, I very much doubt he will be there at #14.

Overall I kind of think #14 is a tough spot for us right now. Probably too low to get an elite corner or DE, but also high enough that we may have to overdraft for need. Hopefully some OLBs do well at the combine to assuage my concern, but I don’t see any O-ring fix quite as clear as Tyron Smith was last year.

Love it.

Really well written man. I loved it

median dollars spent on OL.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/football-insider/post/nothing-more-critical-to-redskins-than-offensive-line-depth/2011/11/02/gIQAZNbAhM_blog.html

If a team spends half its salary cap on a single star player and the minimum salary on the other 52 other players, it’s going to have no depth and a very low median salary. But if a team has a high median salary by allotting its salary cap equally among its players, it may not have any superstars, but it will have nothing but depth. (Cap hit is probably the best measure of NFL salaries, because it includes base salary plus amortized bonuses.)

The Redskins are about average in the league in terms of the total amount of salary allotted to their offensive line in 2011 — 17th by my numbers. But a very large portion of that total goes to Trent Williams. His cap hit this season is over half of the Redskins’ offensive line total of $20 million, which means there’s not much left for the other linemen. The median cap hit is slightly under $600,000.

For comparison, the eight current division leaders have an average median cap hit of $1.2 million for their offensive lines, twice that of the Redskins.

Williams’s $10 million might be just too many eggs in one basket.

if you believe the O-ring theory (which personally I probably don’t) there is a clear implication. Avoid expensive, star, players. Especially at the most expensive positions (QB, CB, LT, edge rusher).

Instead build an entire team of above average players evenly spread across the roster.

Every star player means a thinner, weaker roster everywhere else.

I don’t subscribe to the theory.

In pre-season, you can look at a team and say they look like they have the makings of a good unit here or there. Not enough people have been harping on the pass rush opposite Ware because people go tot he macro-stats and see that our sack numbers weren’t half bad.

The problem is that if you WATCH the games, you’d say the Cowboys pass rush was anemic against teams that could stone Ware and the problem is the D-line, even more so than the underwhelming Anthony Spencer.

This defensive line has been a train wreck ever since they waisted a #1 on Marcus Spears and signed Igor Olshansky. I would say that Tuna would have continued to focus on that unit had he stayed with Dallas. The outcome would have been a much tougher defensive front and Ware would have been much more effective as a result.

What skews the whole O-Ring theory is that each coaching staff views relative strength and relative weakness differently. Case in point, the Giants have invested heavily in FA (with guys like Canty) and the draft (Tuck, Pierre-Paul and Joseph) on the defensive front. Those players have led the team to another NFC title. They don’t have great LB’s and their CB’s are suspect as well. But their strengths hide their weaknesses and allow them to play a brand of football that works for them.

Interesting thatthe Patriots, the other title contender, saw their #2 defensive lineman go down with injury and then chose to modify their scheme to fit the players they had left and convert to a base 4-3. Their defense, despite their numbers, has shown up pretty well in big games. But the staff seems to think it’s okay to have sub-standard personnel in one area and try to overshadow it in another.

The moral of the story is that every year, teams take risks on certain units playing above their heads. Whether they bet on improved coaching (Callahan and Henderson?) having an impact or young players maturing quickly (see the 2007 rookie class ofr the Giants), no one fields teams like the ’92 Cowboys anymore, so weakness is inevitable.

In the last 2 years the Cowboys have been on the wrong side of this theory, going into seasons with easily exploitable O-rings that sabotage the great things their premiere players are capable of. Can they find a way to reverse that trend in 2012 and how could they go about doing it?

Excellent post. Would you also agree that our Orings were Bradie James and Keith Brooking? It seemed like when they were on the field, teams like the Eagles wanted to make us pay for playing them by throwing inside slants to quick WRs, or involving the TE and RB in the passing game.

Anyway, I do agree with your point we should be looking to fill all the holes with players who aren’t merely UDFA plug ins.

If it meant not splurging F$ on just Carl Nicks, I’d do the following:

1) Sign either Chris Meyers or the Chargers back up FA C to play the position in Dallas.

2) Sign either Finnegan, Carr, or Porter to play CB.

3) Draft 2 Gs that are capable of starting.

4) Draft one CB and one Safety who can
come in and play.

Let me know what you think.

It really clears up a lot of things about this team. I too noticed the “throw to the guy Newman is covering” strategy. I’ve also seen the Giants do that to other teams and is the reason why Cruz is great one week, Manningham the next.
Round 2,3,4 are where you build your team. Pats figured it out before everyone else. Picture changes a bit with the Rookie salary cap, but I’d still consider trading down.

Well done. Does anyone think that any of the coaches could possibly sneak a peak at some of this stuff? Or do they think that they know everything there is to know and a fan couldn’t possibly see or know anything that they don’t already see or know? Just saying…wouldn’t 1,000 pairs of eyes be better than 10 or 20? Never know, we might see something that they didn’t think about and could consider it. Highly unlikely, I know. But it would be nice to think that, just maybe, they would at least “sneak a peak”.