FanPost

What the statistics REALLY tell us about the Baltimore game


Whilst the NFL can provide some rather blunt team stats regarding overall team success, these stats do not really take into account the opposition each individual team has faced. In terms of Passing Defence, the Cowboys are ranked No.1, but obviously this is going to hugely affected by whether the Cowboys have faced pass-happy teams.

What I wanted to do was to look at the 4 broad team stats ie pass offence, rush offence, pass defence and rush offence in terms of who the Cowboys have been playing and see how the Cowboys compare to the average for each of these teams.

This is what I did:

In terms of pass offence/defence, I looked at Yds/Game, Td (scored or conceded), Interceptions (+/-) and Sacks (+/-) and rush offence/defence I looked at Yds/Game and Td (scored or conceded).

I looked at each individual team Dallas has played to date ie Giants, Seahawks, Buccaneers and Bears. I obtained the relevant NFL stats for pass & rush offence/defence. I then subtracted the Cowboys performance against these teams to generate a new average (minus the Cowboys) for each team stat. I then ascetained whether the Cowboys had performed better or worse than the average against each of these teams (a positive score indicates better than average whereas a negative score indicates worse than average).

Four tables were generated for the Dallas pass & rush offence/defence. Below is the table for the pass offence.

Pass Offense

Yds/Game

TD

Int

Sack

vs NYG

+57

+1.75

+.25

-0.5

vs SEA

+73.75

+0.5

-0.5

+2.75

vs TB

-82.93

-1.33

+0.67

-2.67

vs Chi

+215.75

+1.25

-3.0

+3.25

Average

+66.39

+0.54

-0.645

+0.71



Once this was completed, I looked at the current team stats for Dallas & Baltimore, and corrected these based on how well Dallas has performed on average this season. The following table indicates what we should expect.

Total Offense

Passing Yds/Game

TD

Int

Sack

Rushing Yds/Game

TD

Dallas

327.79

0.94

1.845

1.09

103.4

0.825

Baltimore

243.82

1.19

-0.27

3.06

103.8

0.65

Lots of analysis you could apply to this, but if scoring is the name of the game, then offensively neither of these teams are going to light it up on Sunday. In fact, they are almost identical. As with last week, this may come down to turnovers, and it would appear that Baltimore have the edge. One stat not included here is that Baltimore are also forcing 1.2 fumbles per game.

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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