FanPost

KD's 10-for-10 - 2012 Week #6 Update

Where do I begin? I have already stated in comments on KD's Week #6 page that I believe this is our worst week ever - at least since I have been keeping score.

Let's look together at the carnage and see how we can recover this week:

Last week, I only listed the names of 9-for-10s and 8-for-10s. Anything 7 or worse got no credit. This week, there were no 10-for-10s, 9-for-10s, or 8-for-10s. This week, 7-for-10 set the pace. Only nine people got more right than wrong. And, we had an incredible number - eight - who only went 1-for-10. One of those was a co-leader last week. One is an esteemed Front Page Writer.

And, as bad as everything was, if Atlanta had missed a last-second field goal and gone on to lose to the Raiders, all of those 1-for-10s would have been goose eggs. We have never had someone go 0-for-10. We were that close to having eight this week.

Was there any good news? Let's look together and see.

We continued our two participation trends intact for the sixth week in a row:

  • Each week, the number of participants has declined. Our peak was the record Week #1 total of 222.
  • Each week, we have added at least one new player. We had two play this week for the first time.

Here's that participation table, so you can see those constants:

Participation
Week Played This Week Missed This Week Total
1 222 0 222
2 199 44 243
3 177 69 246
4 168 83 251
5 149 104 253
6 147 108 255

We also continued having That Guys show up each week, as we had 147 total participants this week, but only 144 picks on the Cowboys-Ravens:

  • Despite my admonitions, we had two who made Thursday Game Only picks and failed to come back on with their other nine.
  • For the second consecutive Cowboys game, the same person submitted 10-for-10 without including the Cowboys game. I have given grace - twice - and counted the first nine picks, ignored the tenth, and marked the Cowboys game as "wrong". However, KD's rules permit disqualifying the entire entry.

Shakeepuddn, I'm calling you out. Please include the Cowboys games in your ten picks each week. You are near the top of the leaderboard. Those two potential points that you forfeited may come up huge at the end of the season.

I'm still looking for good news. Here's some more bad. This is my second year of scoring 10-for-10 for KD. Our previous worst week as a consensus was 8-8. We did it twice last year, and already twice this year. This is our first time to miss more collectively than we got right. We only got four right this week, out of fourteen games. Two of those were "solid" wins - our unanimous choice of Atlanta, and our solid pick of Tampa Bay. The other two were "squeakers" - fewer of us played these games, and were almost evenly split (although slightly more picked the winners).

Here's our record for this week:

Week #6 Results (Home in CAPS)
Win Winners (we're great) Lose
144 ATLANTA Oakland 0
73 TAMPA BAY Kansas City 12
Win Losers (we're bleep) Lose
5 Buffalo ARIZONA 117
7 New York Giants SAN FRANCISCO 114
5 TENNESSEE Pittsburgh 104
41 BALTIMORE Dallas 103
11 Green Bay HOUSTON 91
15 SEATTLE New England 90
14 WASHINGTON Minnesota 84
20 CLEVELAND Cincinnati 72
27 Detroit PHILADELPHIA 69
Win Pretty Even (we're indifferent) Lose
49 MIAMI St. Louis 34
40 Denver SAN DIEGO 31
34 NEW YORK JETS Indianapolis 44

I have also been reporting to One.Cool.Customer each week our consensus results. He runs a Front Page Writer contest each week where each of them picks winners in every game. He tracks their individual records, as well as their consensus collective marks. I commented after a bad week that the 10-for-10 pickers were probably outscoring the front page writers.

He has begun including our numbers each week in that story, and we have been maintaining a slim lead in our "battle" with the FPers.

Here is a new table (new this week) showing our collective "scorecard":

2012 Consensus Scoreboard
Week Wins Losses Ties
1 11 5 0
2 8 8 0
3 8 8 0
4 10 5 0
5 10 4 0
6 4 10 0
Total 51 40 0

Just for reference, here is the same information from last year. You can tell the weeks that had many 10-for-10s. When we collectively go 14-2 in our picks, it stands to reason that there will be some that missed hitting one of the "two" misses. We also had "ties" last season, where the same number of people picked each team to win.

2011 Consensus Scoreboard
Week Wins Losses Ties
1 8 8 0
2 14 2 0
3 10 5 1
4 12 4 0
5 9 3 1
6 9 4 0
7 7 6 0
8 8 5 0
9 8 6 0
10 10 6 0
11 10 4 0
12 14 2 0
13 10 5 1
14 11 5 0
15 8 8 0
16 10 6 0
17 10 6 0
Total 168 85 3

I introduced a new table last week that tracked our collective records on each team each week. Here is the update that includes week #6:

Picks/Results for Each Team/Each Week
Team Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4 Wk 5 Wk 6 Wk 7 Wk 8 Wk 9 Wk 10 Wk 11 Wk 12 Wk 13 Wk 14 Wk 15 Wk 16 Wk 17 W L
San Diego WW WW LL WW LL LL 6 0
Atlanta WW LW WW WW WW WW 5 1
Cleveland LL LL LL LL LL LW 5 1
Denver WW WL LL WW LL WW 5 1
Houston WW WW WW WW WW WL 5 1
Kansas City LL LL LW LL LL LL 5 1
Chicago WW LL WW LW WW Bye 4 1
Jacksonville LL LL LW LL LL Bye 4 1
Baltimore WW WL WW WW WW LW 4 2
Buffalo WL WW WW LL LL LW 4 2
Miami LL LW LL LL LW WW 4 2
New England WW WL LL WW WW WL 4 2
New York Jets LW LL WW LL LL LW 4 2
Tennessee LL LL LW LL LL LW 4 2
Oakland LL WL LW LL Bye LL 3 2
Pittsburgh LL WW WL Bye WW WL 3 2
Tampa Bay LW LL LL WL Bye WW 3 2
Cincinnati LL WW LW WW WL WL 3 3
New York Giants LL WW LW WL WW LW 3 3
Philadelphia WW LW LL LW LL WL 3 3
San Francisco LW WW WL WW WW WL 3 3
St Louis LL LW LL LW LW LL 3 3
Dallas WW WL WW WL Bye WL 2 3
Detroit WW LL WL WL Bye LW 2 3
New Orleans WL WL WL LL WW Bye 2 3
Arizona LW LW WW WW WL WL 2 4
Green Bay WL WW WL WW WL LW 2 4
Minnesota WW WL LW LW WW WL 2 4
Carolina WL LW WL LL WL Bye 1 4
Indianapolis LL LW WL Bye LW WL 1 4
Washington LW WL WL LW LL LW 1 5
Seattle WL LW LW WL LW LW 0 6

Remember the code from last week? The first letter is our pick. Did most of us pick that team to win or to lose? The second letter is the result. Did that team actually win or lose? So, WW is good for us (most of us picked a team to win; it won). LL is also good (most of us picked a team to lose; it lost). It's those "one of each" combinations that killed us this week, where the results are opposite of our picks. WL and LW are bad for our collective scores.

We stayed "perfect" with San Diego, thanks to their second half collapse. I thought Rivers was elite, and only non-clutch players (like Romo) blew 24-point leads in the second half.

I used to think a lot of stuff. I thought that Brady was clutch in a close game down the stretch and would never make a game-losing play. I thought that Pittsburgh was invincible, especially with Roethlisberger at the helm. I thought that the struggling Packers were no match for the fearsome Houston Texans. I thought that Arizona always won the last-second or overtime games. Their kicker hit from sixty-one yards to send their game to overtime. Anything less in OT had to be nothing but a chip shot, right? Game over?

The Cowboys aren't the only team that is imperfect, and are still firmly in control of playoff destiny. We are unbeaten in division play, and control the division race with our remaining division games. The other "elite" teams in the NFL have been, or are beginning to be, exposed. Atlanta? Pittsburgh? San Francisco? Minnesota? St. Louis? Arizona? New Orleans? Detroit? Green Bay? Even Baltimore and Chicago have serious warts and do not strike fear, even considering our recent losses to them.

This is probably the most equal that I have seen the NFL, as it has for years tried to achieve parity across the league. All the years of "any given Sunday" have finally been realized. Are there any teams on a schedule that can be pre-marked as "automatic wins" or "automatic losses"? Is a game against Cleveland a guaranteed win? Not any more. How about a game against the Texans? Guaranteed loss? Not any more.

Can anyone be more unpredictable than Seattle? That is our "other end of perfection", as we have missed on them every week. We pick them to win; they lose. So, we pick them to lose; they win.

What about this week? San Diego's "perfect" record is safe this week through their bye. What about Seattle? They are first out of the box, playing on Thursday at San Francisco. Will most of us use long-term memories and blindly choose an elite team (SF) over a mediocre team (Seattle)? Or, will short-term memories kick in and we overwhelmingly choose Seattle, fresh off a come-from-behind win over the Patriots, on the road where the 49ers got demolished? I don't know, but I plan to pick the opposite of our majority. It seems to be the best choice with Seattle.

Last year, we averaged 6.56-for-10. This past week, we only averaged 3.34-for-10. In other words, if you scored 4-for-10, you didn't lose any ground. The overall lead only moved four places - from 36 to 40. The two top scores this week were 3-for-10 (49 people) and 4-for-10 (40 people). Again, only nine people got more right than wrong (four went 7-for-10 and five went 6-for-10). Almost as many (eight) only went 1-for-10.

There were ten players who had participated in all five previous weeks, and this was their first week to miss. Good news for you - the bus didn't get very far down the road. You can still catch up to it. You are not out of it.

Here is my updated leaderboard, with the best from week #6, and the top scores overall:

Top Scores This Week
Week #6 Score Week #6 Score Overall Score Overall Score
Alpha 7 Cuban Cowboy 4 D_Carter 40 Panzer84 37
CowboyBaby 7 D_Carter 4 illcowboy 40 Rex Pfister 37
Realist Larry 7 DCB* 4 j-man 40 slowmotion80 37
TheDemolitionDan 7 fs65 4 ziggy 19 40 Through Thick And Thin 37
Tunabomber11 7 Gabby 4 CowboyBaby 39 Troy 37
Dezstroyer88 6 Hobbes42 4 Pnut Gallery 39 Tunabomber11 37
j-man 6 IRONRAVEN 4 Alpha 38 WA_Cowboy 37
nikeorlipstick 6 jgoddard8409 4 BishopWest 38 Aggie Man 36
slowmotion80 6 jstaubach 4 boyman 38 Allan Uy 36
cjbrit 5 k@s! 4 cowboy1966 38 Antonio S 36
EchoEcho 5 KD Drummond 4 hookerhome 38 Ben24626 36
Frankster_1 5 LRogue 4 IRONRAVEN 38 BigBad Joe 36
HALIFAXPACOWBOY 5 lucke 4 LRogue 38 CowboyinExile 36
hookerhome 5 mdlusk 4 mdlusk 38 cowdog 36
illcowboy 5 Mikellie 4 revellyre 38 cproctor6 36
Pasipple 5 mikemc68 4 Rohpuri 38 HALIFAXPACOWBOY 36
Rome One 5 oldboysfan 4 ROMO4MVP 38 HLCJ69 36
scotscowboyfan 5 Panzer84 4 scotscowboyfan 38 jgoddard8409 36
shainyc 5 pierrelmn 4 shainyc 38 KD Drummond 36
Tennessee Jed 5 Rohpuri 4 Tennessee Jed 38 milehightexan 36
Against the Wall-24 4 Scurrah Jurrah 4 Travlr 38 MSM33 36
Aggie Man 4 swanhooch 4 @Tonekupone 37 nikeorlipstick 36
alfanti 4 Travlr 4 Against the Wall-24 37 Specific 36
Babygirl71 4 True Blue-liever 4 alfanti 37 TheBlueBaron 36
behind.enemylines 4 Uncas 4 ChrisMan 37 TheDemolitionDan 36
Ben24626 4 Unique 4 Frankster_1 37 True Blue-liever 36
BigBad Joe 4 WA_Cowboy 4 GordBerl 37 Wardo83 36
boyman 4 ziggy 19 4 Hawkeye101 37 wittenfan 36
CapitalT 4 49 tied with 3 Jebediah Flibberbrush 37 Wittenstar82 36
cowboy1966 4 28 tied with 2 krikaley 37 19 tied for 62nd 35
cowdog 4 8 tied with 1 letsgtld 37 14 tied for 81st 34
cproctor6 4 2 Thursday Only 0 mushpuppy 37 9 tied for 95th 33

If you missed your name on this leaderboard, then wait for KD's next contest page when he lists the complete overall leaderboard. I did list the 4-for-10s this week. Otherwise, that side of the table would have been very skimpy. Plus, 4-for-10 actually outscored the average for the week.

Congratulations to D_Carter and ziggy 19 for not losing their foothold on the top. Two of their friends fell off this week, and two new friends join them at the top. Congratulations also to illcowboy (tied for second overall last year) and j-man (most recent 10-for-10 inductee) for joining them at the top.

Look at me. After being tied for 34th last week, and three off the lead, I used a 5-for-10 to vault up the ranks. I'm now only two off the lead, but tied for 7th. I'm even with the 2010 champion (BishopWest), and I have a rare glimpse of the 2011 champion (Jebediah Flibberbrush) in my rear-view mirror.

Well, I said that last week was a special exception, and that I wouldn't make a practice of it until the holidays. I'm making another exception this week, for the same reasons:

  • This post is late (afternoon on Wednesday)
  • Some may not want to wait for KD to post their Thursday picks
  • Cowboys kick off early again on Sunday (no grace for being late)

So, here goes. Make a Thursday Game Only pick, or pick ten out of these thirteen games. Six teams have byes this week, so there are only three games you can skip. Good luck. I don't know how we can do worse than last week. Mobile posters, remember to use asterisks to make your selections bold (*game winner* - asterisks; game loser - no asterisks).

Pick one of these for Thursday night (asterisks make *bold*):

*Seattle* at SAN FRANCISCO

Seattle at *SAN FRANCISCO*

Or, take on all ten games now. Here are all thirteen games:

Seattle at SAN FRANCISCO

Tennessee at BUFFALO

Dallas at CAROLINA

Baltimore at HOUSTON

Cleveland at INDIANAPOLIS

Arizona at MINNESOTA

Washington at NEW YORK GIANTS

Green Bay at ST. LOUIS

New Orleans at TAMPA BAY

New York Jets at NEW ENGLAND

Jacksonville at OAKLAND

Pittsburgh at CINCINNATI

Detroit at CHICAGO

I don't think I will try to replicate "transferring" picks to KD's page. That was a lot of work, and I made a couple of mistakes (in four hundred entries). I may still copy/paste the timestamps, but, with this new 10-for-10 hub, it is easy enough to confirm picks.

So, make them here, or make them on KD's page. All I will ask is, when KD's next page is posted, please post there and stop posting picks on here.

I welcome comments and critiques on here, but I only take picks as a convenience for you so you don't have to wait on KD's page.

Please - don't be That Guy this week. Don't forget to include the Cowboys, and don't make a Thursday pick and fail to return with your other nine.

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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