NFL Power Rankings And Betting Prognostications For Week 5

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Just because the Cowboys aren't on the schedule doesn't mean you don't have a job to do this weekend. Follow your football, soldier.

Here we are; nothing to do. The NFL carries on this weekend without our Cowboys. Normally, I hate bye weeks. We wait eight months for football to come around and it only lasts for 20 weeks. In the middle, they give us a "break". I'm a fan, I don't need a stinkin' break! Besides, the Cowboys haven't been world beaters coming out of the bye in the last couple years

Still, if there was ever a team in need of a weekend off, this one qualifies. If the team's mental health can recuperate in the same way we hope the player's physical well-being does; Dallas might still have a shot of doing something this season. For now, though, all of the Cowboys Kingdom will watch the rest of the NFL show us how they do it.

Here's a look at my latest NFL Power Rankings; with a slight formula adjustment. I consulted our resident statistical warlock for some assistance in fine tuning. O.C.C. instituted some rules that the numbers needed to be followed. The results didn't shift much, but I feel a lot better about things. I reran last week's stats, so the "Last Weeks Rank" column reflects where teams stood under the new formula. I'll be using this moving forward.

The super secret sauce formula includes Net YPA differential, Win Totals, Total Expected Points Added (AdvancedNFLStats.com), Passer Rating Differential and Turnover Differential. All normalized then weighted in how important I feel they are to overall success on a season. Being that it's so early in the season, there is a lot of fluctuation from one game to the next. That will calm down as the year progresses.

Dallas took a drop in every category, and thus fell from 7th overall down to 21st. Their Net YPA differential dropped from +2.2 to +1.0. Their Expected Points Added Differential dropped from +4.4 to -12.5. Obviously their win total remained stagnant at 2 while their Passer Rating Differential sunk from +7.3 to -12.6. Finally, after giving Chicago an extra few times, Turnover Differential went from -3 to -7.

Team KD Score Last Rank
1 Houston 97.2 1
2 Atlanta 90.8 2
3 Chicago 80.3 10
4 Baltimore 77.8 4
5 New England 71.7 14
6 San Francisco 70.9 16
7 San Diego 69.2 19
8 Minesota 67.9 5
9 Cincinnati 65.8 17
10 Philadelphia 63.8 11
11 Arizona 61.0 3
12 Denver 61.0 23
13 Pittsburgh 59.8 12
14 New York G 58.2 9
15 Green Bay 58.0 8
16 Washington 57.6 20
17 St. Louis 55.8 21
18 Carolina 51.1 18
19 Seattle 50.2 13
20 Buffalo 46.7 6
21 Dallas 43.2 7
22 Detroit 39.5 22
23 Miami 34.6 28
24 New York J 31.6 15
25 Tampa Bay 24.8 25
26 Jacksonville 23.9 24
27 Indy 20.6 27
28 Cleveland 17.7 29
29 New Orleans 17.2 31
30 Oakland 16.7 26
31 Tennessee 12.5 30
32 Kansas City 5.5 32

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OMG, It's KD's ATS, M/L, O/U Predictions!

As is the custom, here's a look at my predictions for each of the games during the week. Doing well with the straight up picks and the Over/Unders; treading water Against the Spread. Started off the week right with a three and oh sweep of the Thursday night game.

Let's go picks, baby needs a new pair of shoes! And diapers. And formula. And warm winter clothes. And some new bibs.

MATCHUP Kickoff Underdog Line Favorite O/U S/U ATS O/U
Arizona @ ST LOUIS T830p RAMS 1.5 Cardinals 38 RAMS RAMS Under
Atlanta @ WASHINGTON 1p REDSKINS 3 Falcons 51 Falcons Falcons Over
Philly @ PITTSBURGH 1p Eagles 3.5 STEELERS 43 Eagles Eagles Over
Green Bay @ INDIANAPOLIS 1p COLTS 6.5 Packers 47.5 Packers Packers Over
Cleveland @ NY GIANTS 1p Browns 10 GIANTS 44 GIANTS Browns Under
Miami @ CINCINNATI 1p Dolphins 3.5 BENGALS 45 Dolphins Dolphins Over
Baltimore @ KANSAS CITY 1p CHIEFS 6 Ravens 46.5 Ravens Ravens Under
Seattle @ CAROLINA 405p Seahawks 3 PANTHERS 43.5 PANTHERS PANTHERS Under
Chicago @ JACKSONVILLE 405p JAGUARS 4.5 Bears 41 Bears Bears Under
Tennessee @ MINNESOTA 425p Titans 5.5 VIKINGS 44 VIKINGS Titans Over
Denver @ NEW ENGLAND 425p Broncos 6.5 PATRIOTS 51.5 PATRIOTS Broncos Over
Buffalo @ SAN FRANCISCO 425p Bills 9.5 49ERS 44.5 49ERS Bills Over
San Diego @ NEW ORLEANS S830p Chargers 3 SAINTS 54 SAINTS SAINTS Under
Houston @ NY JETS M835p JETS 8 Texans 41.5 Texans Texans Under
S/U ATS O/U
Week 4 11-4 7-8 8-7
Season Total 37-26 32-31 35-28

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Don't forget to submit your entries in KDP's 10 For 10 Pick'Em Contest! ==> Click Here! <==

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