Tom Pennington - Getty Images
Just because the Cowboys aren't on the schedule doesn't mean you don't have a job to do this weekend. Follow your football, soldier.
Here we are; nothing to do. The NFL carries on this weekend without our Cowboys. Normally, I hate bye weeks. We wait eight months for football to come around and it only lasts for 20 weeks. In the middle, they give us a "break". I'm a fan, I don't need a stinkin' break! Besides, the Cowboys haven't been world beaters coming out of the bye in the last couple years
Still, if there was ever a team in need of a weekend off, this one qualifies. If the team's mental health can recuperate in the same way we hope the player's physical well-being does; Dallas might still have a shot of doing something this season. For now, though, all of the Cowboys Kingdom will watch the rest of the NFL show us how they do it.
Here's a look at my latest NFL Power Rankings; with a slight formula adjustment. I consulted our resident statistical warlock for some assistance in fine tuning. O.C.C. instituted some rules that the numbers needed to be followed. The results didn't shift much, but I feel a lot better about things. I reran last week's stats, so the "Last Weeks Rank" column reflects where teams stood under the new formula. I'll be using this moving forward.
The super secret sauce formula includes Net YPA differential, Win Totals, Total Expected Points Added (AdvancedNFLStats.com), Passer Rating Differential and Turnover Differential. All normalized then weighted in how important I feel they are to overall success on a season. Being that it's so early in the season, there is a lot of fluctuation from one game to the next. That will calm down as the year progresses.
Dallas took a drop in every category, and thus fell from 7th overall down to 21st. Their Net YPA differential dropped from +2.2 to +1.0. Their Expected Points Added Differential dropped from +4.4 to -12.5. Obviously their win total remained stagnant at 2 while their Passer Rating Differential sunk from +7.3 to -12.6. Finally, after giving Chicago an extra few times, Turnover Differential went from -3 to -7.
| Team | KD Score | Last Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston | 97.2 | 1 |
| 2 | Atlanta | 90.8 | 2 |
| 3 | Chicago | 80.3 | 10 |
| 4 | Baltimore | 77.8 | 4 |
| 5 | New England | 71.7 | 14 |
| 6 | San Francisco | 70.9 | 16 |
| 7 | San Diego | 69.2 | 19 |
| 8 | Minesota | 67.9 | 5 |
| 9 | Cincinnati | 65.8 | 17 |
| 10 | Philadelphia | 63.8 | 11 |
| 11 | Arizona | 61.0 | 3 |
| 12 | Denver | 61.0 | 23 |
| 13 | Pittsburgh | 59.8 | 12 |
| 14 | New York G | 58.2 | 9 |
| 15 | Green Bay | 58.0 | 8 |
| 16 | Washington | 57.6 | 20 |
| 17 | St. Louis | 55.8 | 21 |
| 18 | Carolina | 51.1 | 18 |
| 19 | Seattle | 50.2 | 13 |
| 20 | Buffalo | 46.7 | 6 |
| 21 | Dallas | 43.2 | 7 |
| 22 | Detroit | 39.5 | 22 |
| 23 | Miami | 34.6 | 28 |
| 24 | New York J | 31.6 | 15 |
| 25 | Tampa Bay | 24.8 | 25 |
| 26 | Jacksonville | 23.9 | 24 |
| 27 | Indy | 20.6 | 27 |
| 28 | Cleveland | 17.7 | 29 |
| 29 | New Orleans | 17.2 | 31 |
| 30 | Oakland | 16.7 | 26 |
| 31 | Tennessee | 12.5 | 30 |
| 32 | Kansas City | 5.5 | 32 |
OMG, It's KD's ATS, M/L, O/U Predictions!
As is the custom, here's a look at my predictions for each of the games during the week. Doing well with the straight up picks and the Over/Unders; treading water Against the Spread. Started off the week right with a three and oh sweep of the Thursday night game.
Let's go picks, baby needs a new pair of shoes! And diapers. And formula. And warm winter clothes. And some new bibs.
| MATCHUP | Kickoff | Underdog | Line | Favorite | O/U | S/U | ATS | O/U | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona @ ST LOUIS | T830p | RAMS | 1.5 | Cardinals | 38 | RAMS | RAMS | Under | |
| Atlanta @ WASHINGTON | 1p | REDSKINS | 3 | Falcons | 51 | Falcons | Falcons | Over | |
| Philly @ PITTSBURGH | 1p | Eagles | 3.5 | STEELERS | 43 | Eagles | Eagles | Over | |
| Green Bay @ INDIANAPOLIS | 1p | COLTS | 6.5 | Packers | 47.5 | Packers | Packers | Over | |
| Cleveland @ NY GIANTS | 1p | Browns | 10 | GIANTS | 44 | GIANTS | Browns | Under | |
| Miami @ CINCINNATI | 1p | Dolphins | 3.5 | BENGALS | 45 | Dolphins | Dolphins | Over | |
| Baltimore @ KANSAS CITY | 1p | CHIEFS | 6 | Ravens | 46.5 | Ravens | Ravens | Under | |
| Seattle @ CAROLINA | 405p | Seahawks | 3 | PANTHERS | 43.5 | PANTHERS | PANTHERS | Under | |
| Chicago @ JACKSONVILLE | 405p | JAGUARS | 4.5 | Bears | 41 | Bears | Bears | Under | |
| Tennessee @ MINNESOTA | 425p | Titans | 5.5 | VIKINGS | 44 | VIKINGS | Titans | Over | |
| Denver @ NEW ENGLAND | 425p | Broncos | 6.5 | PATRIOTS | 51.5 | PATRIOTS | Broncos | Over | |
| Buffalo @ SAN FRANCISCO | 425p | Bills | 9.5 | 49ERS | 44.5 | 49ERS | Bills | Over | |
| San Diego @ NEW ORLEANS | S830p | Chargers | 3 | SAINTS | 54 | SAINTS | SAINTS | Under | |
| Houston @ NY JETS | M835p | JETS | 8 | Texans | 41.5 | Texans | Texans | Under | |
| S/U | ATS | O/U | |||||||
| Week 4 | 11-4 | 7-8 | 8-7 | ||||||
| Season Total | 37-26 | 32-31 | 35-28 |
Don't forget to submit your entries in KDP's 10 For 10 Pick'Em Contest! ==> Click Here! <==
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