FanPost

KD's 10-for-10 - 2012 Week #10 Update


I am fit to be tied this week. For the first time in four years, and for the first time since KD began 10-for-10 back in 2010, [insert Ray Scott voice] "We have a tie."

I have had three perfect 9-for-9s derailed by late Cowboys losses, keeping me out of KD's Hall of Fame. This weekend, I was on the road, but I was able to listen to the Cowboys on the "radio" (thanks to TuneIn for BlackBerry and at least one streaming Cowboys-network radio station that doesn't know it isn't supposed to stream Cowboys games).

I had vaguely remembered my picks that I had made three days and a thousand miles earlier. When the radio guys ran down scores, everything seemed "right". The two "surprises" were Cincinnati's beatdown of the Giants, and New Orleans' win over the previously undefeated Falcons. I had both of those in my ten picks.

I was beginning to feel pretty good. Nothing I heard jangled my nerves and caused me to think, "Bleep! I missed that one." I didn't include Houston-Chicago, and only had two "freebies" remaining - San Francisco and Pittsburgh. What could happen?

Then came the announcement - "You won't believe this, but the Rams and 49ers game, that went to overtime, is over. For the first time in four years..." Yes, the unthinkable and the unforeseen happened. How could the 49ers lose fail to win in overtime? That's going to blow a lot of 10-for-10s.

Before I go any farther, I want to give a personal shout-out, praise, and thanks to BishopWest and Travlr. While I was traveling this weekend, these two were diligent and vigilant to patrol the active pages (my previous FanPost and KD's current page). Whenever someone made an errant post, one or the other (or both) were quick to jump on and steer the poster in the right direction. When someone asked a question, one or both would quickly respond with correct information.

I need to also thank KD Drummond. He also monitored the pages more than normal (difficult with a little one and all his other responsibilities). He was the "good-guy traffic-cop" that put out stop signs (on my FanPost as soon as he posted his new page; on his page when Thursday night kicked off; and on Sunday after the early games kicked off).

I don't get many Sundays off each year from my church staff position. This was my final one for this calendar year, and is the only one during football season. I took my family up to Oklahoma for homecoming (I had not been there in ten years, and my class was having a reunion). I had my computer on at the hotel in Shawnee, but I packed it away on Saturday morning and didn't get it back out again until late Sunday night.

After driving across four state lines on Sunday (started outside Tulsa, went to southwestern Missouri, northwestern Arkansas, back into eastern Oklahoma, and crossed into Texas for my final hotel night in Sherman), I finally unpacked my computer and stayed up late to record all the entries that had come in on Saturday and Sunday.

As I read the comments that were interspersed with the entries, I knew without reading what KD's reaction would be to the tie, and I knew how it would be scored. Sure enough, someone asked, and KD answered, exactly as I expected. Since the 49ers had failed to win against the Rams, I would finish my week with nine wins, not ten. I didn't have a loss (49ers didn't lose the game), but I didn't have ten wins either.

So, how should my score be recorded this week? If the 49ers had won, I would be 10-0; if the Rams had won, I would be 9-1. Neither happened. Am I 9-0-1 this week? Or, am I 9.5-0.5 this week?

That game was one of six that were unanimous (everyone who included that game picked the 49ers; no one picked the Rams). It was also one of three that were almost unanimously played (nearly every participant included it in his picks). As I commented here, only a handful of the overall leaders didn't pick this game (seven of the top 120, and none of the top 55).

So, I am reversing course from that comment. For both individual records and for our consensus summaries, everyone who picked San Francisco is now recorded with a "loss" (the same if anyone had picked the Rams). Our consensus record is now 9-5 this week (nine wins, four losses, and this tie) - same as the FPWs.

We aren't actually predicting the outcome of the game (three outcomes - visitor wins; home wins; or tie); rather, we are picking a winner (two outcomes - your pick wins, yea; your pick doesn't win, boo).

I was also asked in a comment why I was likely to not include this week's Eagles-Redskins game. My "system" is to pick games as a Cowboys fan, looking through blue-and-silver glasses. I always pick the Cowboys to win, and I generally pick other NFC East teams to lose (or, I don't include a game). When two rivals play each other, I "pull" for the result that is of greater benefit to the Cowboys.

Now that the Cowboys are ahead of both, it is irrelevant to me who wins. Maybe, in honor of Donovan McNabb - the Eagles quarterback who famously didn't know the tie rules four years ago this week when he played in the last game to end in a tie, and who played for both teams - I'll pick that game to end in a tie this week. That would probably be the outcome that would most benefit the Cowboys.

According to Wade Phillips, the Giants are guaranteed a win this week as they enjoy their bye. I may also pick them to lose this week.

Enough of this. Here are tables and reports, and an advance look at week #11, should anyone wish to make picks early.

Participation was slightly down this week. 129 played 10-for-10, and one more got in late with just the late/night games. We also had one new player this week (still at least one every week).

Participation
Week Played This Week Missed This Week Total
1 222 0 222
2 199 44 243
3 177 69 246
4 168 83 251
5 149 104 253
6 147 108 255
7 137 119 256
8 137 120 257
9 131 127 258
10 130 129 259

I made a table earlier this year to account for our largest unanimous losses (when everyone that played a game picked the same team, and that team lost). Even though this game was a tie, it was still one of our largest unanimous "non-wins". So, I am adding it to this list.

Worst Unanimous 10-for-10 "Non-Wins"
Week Picks Our Pick Winner
2012-03 170 San Francisco Minnesota
2012-10 127 San Francisco St. Louis (tie)
2011-02 79 Baltimore Tennessee
2011-08 77 New Orleans St. Louis
2011-10 75 Baltimore Seattle
2011-07 70 Baltimore Jacksonville
2011-15 64 Green Bay Kansas City
2011-04 61 Buffalo Cincinnati
2011-01 60 Cleveland Cincinnati
2011-03 51 Arizona Seattle
2011-13 50 Chicago Kansas City
2011-14 23 Philadelphia Miami

Here's how we did in our games this week. We actually had six unanimous games and two more that were nearly so (one pick for the Jets and two for the Titans). Six of those were wins, one was a loss, and one was the tie.

Week #10 Results (Home in CAPS)
Win Winners (we're great) Lose
128 NEW ENGLAND Buffalo 0
127 PITTSBURGH Kansas City 0
118 BALTIMORE Oakland 0
118 Denver CAROLINA 0
117 Dallas PHILADELPHIA 13
112 SEATTLE New York Jets 1
64 Indianapolis JACKSONVILLE 0
52 TAMPA BAY San Diego 11
Win Losers (we're bleep) Lose
2 Tennessee MIAMI 86
11 CINCINNATI New York Giants 74
24 NEW ORLEANS Atlanta 33
16 Detroit MINNESOTA 24
Win Pretty Even (we're indifferent) Lose
20 Houston CHICAGO 16
Win Ties (we're McNabbed) Lose
0 St. Louis SAN FRANCISCO 127

Here's an update on how we pick each team. There are six teams that we have only mis-picked once each this season.

Picks/Results for Each Team/Each Week
Team Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4 Wk 5 Wk 6 Wk 7 Wk 8 Wk 9 Wk 10 Wk 11 Wk 12 Wk 13 Wk 14 Wk 15 Wk 16 Wk 17 W L
Chicago WW LL WW LW WW Bye WW WW WW LL 8 1
Denver WW WL LL WW LL WW Bye WW WW WW 8 1
Houston WW WW WW WW WW WL WW Bye WW WW 8 1
Jacksonville LL LL LW LL LL Bye LL LL LL LL 8 1
Kansas City LL LL LW LL LL LL Bye LL LL LL 8 1
San Diego WW WW LL WW LL LL Bye WL WW LL 8 1
Baltimore WW WL WW WW WW LW LL Bye WW WW 7 2
Cleveland LL LL LL LL LL LW LL LW LL Bye 7 2
New England WW WL LL WW WW WL WW WW Bye WW 7 2
Oakland LL WL LW LL Bye LL WW WW LL LL 7 2
Atlanta WW LW WW WW WW WW Bye WW LW WL 6 3
Buffalo WL WW WW LL LL LW WL Bye LL LL 6 3
New York Jets LW LL WW LL LL LW LL WL Bye LL 6 3
Philadelphia WW LW LL LW LL WL Bye LL LL LL 6 3
Pittsburgh LL WW WL Bye WW WL WW WW LW WW 6 3
Tampa Bay LW LL LL WL Bye WW LL LW WW WW 6 3
Arizona LW LW WW WW WL WL LL LL LL Bye 5 4
Cincinnati LL WW LW WW WL WL LL Bye LL LW 5 4
Green Bay WL WW WL WW WL LW WW WW WW Bye 5 4
Miami LL LW LL LL LW WW Bye LW LL WL 5 4
New Orleans WL WL WL LL WW Bye WW LL WW LW 5 4
San Francisco LW WW WL WW WW WL WW WW Bye WT 5 4
St Louis LL LW LL LW LW LL LL LL Bye LT 5 4
Tennessee LL LL LW LL LL LW LW WL LL LW 5 5
Carolina WL LW WL LL WL Bye LL LL LW LL 4 5
Dallas WW WL WW WL Bye WL WW WL WL WW 4 5
Detroit WW LL WL WL Bye LW LL LW WW LW 4 5
Indianapolis LL LW WL Bye LW WL WW LW WW WW 4 5
Minnesota WW WL LW LW WW WL WW WL LL WL 4 6
New York Giants LL WW LW WL WW LW WW LW WL WL 4 6
Washington LW WL WL LW LL LW LL LL WL Bye 3 6
Seattle WL LW LW WL LW LW LL WL WW WW 3 7

Last week, we gained a game on the Front Page writers, but we stayed even this week. In fact, our consensus was identical to theirs in all fourteen games. We got the same nine right; we got the same four wrong; and, we were both unanimous in picking San Francisco in the tie game.

2012 10-for-10 Consensus vs. Front Page Writers
Week 10-for-10 Wins 10-for-10 Losses Front Page Wins Front Page Losses
1 11 5 11 5
2 8 8 10 6
3 8 8 5 11
4 10 5 10 5
5 10 4 10 4
6 4 10 6 8
7 12 1 12 1
8 8 6 10 4
9 11 3 10 4
10 9 5 9 5
Total 91 55 93 53

Because of the tie, there are no 10-for-10s this week. I am one of six who got the other nine right this week. Last week, there was a three-way tie at the top. This week, only one of those three escaped the South Beach trap (the other two picked Miami).

Congratulations, CowboyBaby, this is your week to have sole possession of first place. Your two friends from last week are right behind you. And, don't look back too far behind you. mdlusk and I caught KD and Hawkeye101 and are only two back, tied for fourth.

Here are the top ninety-six this week and the top ninety-four in the overall leaderboard (KD will have the full leaderboard tomorrow).

Top Scores This Week
Week #10 Score Week #10 Score Overall Score Overall Score
Alpha 9 ChrisMan 7 CowboyBaby 73 Howleyesque 66
Bertangalo 9 cowdog 7 BishopWest 72 k@s! 66
hookerhome 9 cproctor6 7 D_Carter 72 Nord15 66
Johnny Cage 9 D_Carter 7 Hawkeye101 71 Switters023 66
mdlusk 9 eastbeast 7 hookerhome 71 Timmy G 66
Wardo83 9 EchoEcho 7 KD Drummond 71 True Blue-liever 66
Allan Uy 8 Fergie3108 7 mdlusk 71 Tunabomber11 66
bcg08 8 fs65 7 ChrisMan 70 Wittenstar82 66
behind.enemylines 8 gabrielau23 7 krikaley 70 Antonio S 65
BoydNation 8 ginge159 7 Tennessee_Jed 70 connor.cmr 65
connor.cmr 8 HLCJ69 7 Travlr 70 HLCJ69 65
Cowboy Joe 8 Howleyesque 7 ziggy 19 70 nikeorlipstick 65
cowboy1966 8 IRONRAVEN 7 cowboy1966 69 Pasipple 65
CowboyBaby 8 jakezze01 7 Frankster_1 69 slowmotion80 65
CowboysFan1994 8 jayrosser27 7 IRONRAVEN 69 Specific 65
Cuban Cowboy 8 JDobermans 7 j-man 69 TARHEEL PAUL 65
cwby4lf 8 Jebediah Flibberbrush 7 milehightexan 69 TheBlueBaron 65
DCB* 8 jstaubach 7 shainyc 69 TheDemolitionDan 65
Frankster_1 8 k@s! 7 WA_Cowboy 69 bcg08 64
GordBerl 8 KD Drummond 7 Wardo83 69 beastygaming 64
Hawkeye101 8 letsgtld 7 Against the Wall-24 68 Benthere 64
Hobbes42 8 mehrans9 7 Aggie Man 68 EchoEcho 64
Hookem Up 8 Mikellie 7 alfanti 68 Hookem Up 64
ibleedcowboyblue 8 milehightexan 7 Alpha 68 jayrosser27 64
kethry1313 8 MSM33 7 Ben24626 68 MSM33 64
krikaley 8 mushpuppy 7 boyman 68 SoCal Cowboys 64
lucke 8 NorthStar99 7 Fergie3108 68 Cowboy Joe 63
Max2 8 oldboysfan 7 Jebediah Flibberbrush 68 jakezze01 63
meisternance 8 pierrelmn 7 jstaubach 68 lucke 63
One.Cool.Customer 8 Portland's Cowboy fan 7 mushpuppy 68 meisternance 63
Rex Pfister 8 Scurrah Jurrah 7 oldboysfan 68 One.Cool.Customer 63
shainyc 8 skinny post 7 Pnut Gallery 68 Rohpuri 63
SoCal Cowboys 8 slowmotion80 7 Rex Pfister 68 skinny post 63
Timmy G 8 Specific 7 Through Thick And Thin 68 CowboyinExile 62
WA_Cowboy 8 swanhooch 7 Allan Uy 67 kethry1313 62
wittenfan 8 Switters023 7 BigBad Joe 67 @Tonekupone 61
1Bullseye 7 Tallgrass Prairie 7 cowdog 67 Aaron Burtram 61
Against the Wall-24 7 TARHEEL PAUL 7 cproctor6 67 Bertangalo 61
Antonio S 7 Tennessee_Jed 7 illcowboy 67 Cuban Cowboy 61
Babygirl71 7 TheBlueBaron 7 JDobermans 67 jockmeister 61
beastygaming 7 Through Thick And Thin 7 letsgtld 67 Junkyard Dog 61
Benthere 7 Travlr 7 Panzer84 67 Mikellie 61
BishopWest 7 True Blue-liever 7 revellyre 67 NorthStar99 61
boys.camncrew 7 tsylvest 7 ROMO4MVP 67 Static 61
California805Cowboy 7 Tunabomber11 7 wittenfan 67 tsylvest 61
CapitalT 7 Unique 7 boys.camncrew 66 Tuna Helper 61
cee-los 7 Wittenstar82 7 CapitalT 66 3 tied with 60
Chris Hanes 7 yellowrose 7 cee-los 66 5 tied with 59

You may wish to make picks for week #11 on here early. I'll take them on here until KD gets his new page up. NOTE - there is no grace this week to make picks late since the Cowboys play early. No picks will be accepted after the Cowboys kick off this Sunday. This is the final week with byes. After this, there will be sixteen games each of the final five weeks.

Here's the lineup for Week #11 (fourteen games, final four teams have byes):

Thursday--------------

Miami at BUFFALO

Sunday/Monday-----

Arizona at ATLANTA
Tampa Bay at CAROLINA

Cleveland at DALLAS (mandatory; must include)

Green Bay at DETROIT
Jacksonville at HOUSTON
Cincinnati at KANSAS CITY
New York Jets at ST. LOUIS
Philadelphia at WASHINGTON
New Orleans at OAKLAND
San Diego at DENVER
Indianapolis at NEW ENGLAND
Baltimore at PITTSBURGH
Chicago at SAN FRANCISCO

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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