Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!
You've heard of the gift that keeps on giving? Well, this tie keeps on destroying my 10-for-10 scorecard. Last week, I picked the 49ers to beat the Rams. This week, in a reaction to how the Rams stepped up to make the game competitive and the powerful 49ers played down to the Rams, I fell for those "bursts of momentum".
The Jets only needed about two shovelfuls of dirt to be buried and gone. Rams had demolished the Seahawks earlier in St. Louis. One of my easiest picks of the week - Rams over Jets. In the comments I made about each pick, I mused that I hoped my luck would hold out and the Jets would hold off on Tebow-time for another week.
I knew Alex Smith would be out, and I figured that the Bears defense would go ferocious on his backup. I went against the flow, and picked the Bears to keep the 49ers stumbling.
So, for the second week in a row (I know, this is a stretch), the 49ers and Rams kept me - again - from 10-for-10.
It's not like anyone can just step up and go 10-for-10, right? In 2010, only one person (jstaubach) went 10-for-10. In 2011, with the move to the front page, participation increased substantially. Week #2 had three go 10-for-10, and then week #3 added two more. The Hall had gone from one to six members in two weeks. Nine weeks later, something radical happened. On Thanksgiving Weekend, several favored teams, including the Cowboys escaping the Dolphins, were able to post wins. With the stars aligning, nineteen people scored 10-for-10 in that one weekend. The Hall expanded from six to twenty-four members (mdlusk became the first to go 10-for-10 twice; so, twenty-five 10-for-10s by twenty-four people).
This season started "slow", as a couple of newbies scored 10-for-10 in week #1 and week #4. Then, in week #7, another tsunami wave crashed ashore and washed twenty-six more perfect entries into the Hall. Seven of those were second-timers (all from the 2011 week #12 wave), so mdlusk had company in his wing.
Four more were added in week #9, including *Rex Pfister (accidentally picked Atlanta when he meant to pick Dallas; he wasn't allowed to change his pick, so he backed into his first 10-for-10).
I saw it coming on Friday night when I finally had a chance to sit down and record all the picks that had come in on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. I commented:
The most overwhelming action (game and team) is on these games/teams:
- Atl, Dal, GB, Hou, NO, Den, NE, and Bal
Less action, but similar margins of preference go to these teams:
- TB, Cin, StL, Was, and SF
If all eight teams mentioned above win, then we are likely to have many go 10-for-10 this week. If at least one of them loses, then most of us are likely to get knocked out of consideration for 10-for-10 this week.
All eight teams did win on Sunday, which started this 10-for-10 tsunami. But, it almost didn't happen.
My niece had her sixteenth birthday on Sunday, and the extended family went out after church to celebrate her birthday. By the time I got home and turned on the television, the game was in the fourth quarter. Dallas had trailed Cleveland the entire game; Houston was two touchdowns down to Jacksonville; and, Green Bay and Tampa Bay were losing on the road.
Just like this fall's Ryder Cup, all these matches turned. But instead of letting the Euros keep the Cup, these matches turned to keep (most of) us alive for 10-for-10. From a comment late Sunday night:
Bottom line: This is probably our best week ever. But, to show the parity in the NFL, look at this snapshot during the fourth quarter of the early games:
Green Bay – trailed Detroit, rallied to win in regulation
Dallas – trailed Cleveland, rallied to force overtime and win
Houston – trailed Jacksonville, rallied to force overtime and win
Tampa Bay – trailed Carolina, rallied to force overtime and win
We were that close to another week where 6-for-10 was the best score, not the worst.
Out of our 122 participants, 40 scored 10-for-10, 64 scored 9-for-10, 24 scored 8-for-10, 3 scored 7-for-10, and only one (not to be embarassed here) scored 6-for-10. But, we were that close to having 6-for-10 be our top score this week, not our bottom.
We have maintained two trends consistently through my two years of scoring 10-for-10 for KD: declining participation each week, and new players added. Last year, week #11 was the week when non-participants first outnumbered the participants. This year is the same. Last week, we had one more (130) participant than non-participant (129) out of the 259 total who have played 10-for-10 at least once this year (our record 222 in week #1, plus the 37 who have joined during the following weeks).
This week is the first week all season with no new participants. We're still on 259. Last year, participation dropped off substantially during the final weeks of the season. I hope my new Holiday Bonus FanPosts will help reverse that trend.
Here are the incredible numbers from week #11 (even better than our previous record in week #7).
First up is our participation track (referenced above):
|Week||Played This Week||Missed This Week||Total|
Next is our best-ever consensus record (only miss was our pick of Rams over Jets):
|Week #11 Results (Home in CAPS)|
|Win||Winners (we're great)||Lose|
|Win||Losers (we're bleep)||Lose|
|3||New York Jets||ST. LOUIS||68|
|Win||Pretty Even (we're indifferent)||Lose|
Unfortunately, we don't gain any ground on the Front-Page Writers. For the second week in a row, they have matched us, game-for-game, and pick-for-pick. They got the same thirteen right, and had the same miss. So, we're still two down in our friendly contest between us "amateurs" and those "professionals" (I know; they get paid as much as we do for our contributions to Blogging the Boys).
|2012 10-for-10 Consensus vs. Front Page Writers|
|Week||10-for-10 Wins||10-for-10 Losses||Front Page Wins||Front Page Losses|
It's hard to say that we're becoming better at picking specific teams when we got almost every game right. But, here's that updated table:
|Picks/Results for Each Team/Each Week|
|Team||Wk 1||Wk 2||Wk 3||Wk 4||Wk 5||Wk 6||Wk 7||Wk 8||Wk 9||Wk 10||Wk 11||Wk 12||Wk 13||Wk 14||Wk 15||Wk 16||Wk 17||W||L|
|New York Jets||LW||LL||WW||LL||LL||LW||LL||WL||Bye||LL||LW||6||4|
|New York Giants||LL||WW||LW||WL||WW||LW||WW||LW||WL||WL||Bye||4||6|
Finally, here are the top 104 scores from week #11 (out of 122) - the forty 10-for-10s and the sixty-four 9-for-10s - along with the top 103 scores in the overall race. Again, if you're not listed in either group, you did worse than 9-for-10, or your total is less than 67. KD's new page lists the entire leaderboard each week, so everyone's overall scores are listed there.
Notable in this third wave - of the forty perfect scores - thirty are first-timers, six (including Rex) are second-timers, and, for the first time, we have four who have now completed their third. Congratulations to @Tonekupone, D_Carter, Hookem Up, and Portland's Cowboy fan! Each of them participated in each of the three waves - 2011 week #12 (among the 19), 2012 week #7 (among the 26), and 2012 week #11 (among the 40).
Also notable: we have never had 20-for-20 (back-to-back perfect weeks), although many have 19-for-20 (mostly around 2011 week #12). KD's recent run (10-9-9 in weeks #7-9) had tied him with jstaubach from 2010 with the best three consecutive weeks at 28-for-30. That record was matched this week by Rex Pfister and behind.enemylines (each 10-8-10 the past three weeks).
KD closed his week #11 contest page with this line:
Now, here's a look at the stagnant Hall.
The Hall is stagnant no longer. We have now had ninety-seven 10-for-10s, and seventy-two have come this season. Here's the scorecard for week #11. Congratulations to all!
|Top Scores This Week|
|Week #11||Score||Week #11||Score||Overall||Score||Overall||Score|
|Against the Wall-24||10||CowboyinExile||9||D_Carter||82||Tunabomber11||75|
|BigBad Joe||10||cwby4lf||9||mdlusk||80||Hookem Up||74|
|CapitalT||10||fs65||9||KD Drummond||79||SoCal Cowboys||74|
|cproctor6||10||jayrosser27||9||Against the Wall-24||78||Cowboy Joe||73|
|D_Carter||10||Jebediah Flibberbrush||9||Aggie Man||78||jayrosser27||73|
|Hawkeye101||10||Junkyard Dog||9||milehightexan||78||skinny post||73|
|Hookem Up||10||krikaley||9||Rex Pfister||78||bcg08||72|
|Portland's Cowboy fan||10||One.Cool.Customer||9||JDobermans||77||Bertangalo||70|
|Rex Pfister||10||Rohpuri||9||jstaubach||77||Cuban Cowboy||70|
|skinny post||10||Static||9||Through Thick And Thin||77||jockmeister||70|
|SoCal Cowboys||10||swanhooch||9||wittenfan||77||Junkyard Dog||70|
|True Blue-liever||10||Tallgrass Prairie||9||Allan Uy||76||NorthStar99||70|
|Aaron Burtram||9||Through Thick And Thin||9||illcowboy||76||fs65||69|
|Allan Uy||9||Timmy G||9||Panzer84||76||IRONRAVEN||69|
|Antonio S||9||tsylvest||9||True Blue-liever||76||BigHat in NewTexas||68|
|BigHat in NewTexas||9||Wardo83||9||Nord15||75||Max2||67|
|cee-los||9||ziggy 19||9||Switters023||75||6 tied with||66|
As mentioned and linked a bunch of places, I am not taking picks on my weekly FanPosts any more this season. Because people's schedules can become very constraining and demanding during this time of year, it can be difficult to wait until Wednesday or Thursday and "hit the window" between when KD and I get our new pages up and kickoffs of Thursday games.
So, last Saturday, I posted KD's 10-for-10 - 2012 Holiday Bonus #1. It is now in the 10-for-10 Hub, so it is easy to find. On this bonus FanPost, I am taking early picks for Thanksgiving (week #12) through Monday, December 10 (week #14). I will put up a second Holiday Bonus FanPost in early December to take early picks for weeks #15-17.
I don't like seeing participation drop off. I have noticed the past few weeks that we have people who have played every week miss a week. We had three this week (played all ten weeks and missed this week). Last year, the bottom fell out of our participation the past three weeks of the season, when semesters ended and families traveled for Christmas. I hope that these two Holiday Bonus FanPosts keep everyone participating, and not missing playing 10-for-10 the rest of the season.
Get your picks in this week. Since the Cowboys play on Thanksgiving, you need to at least get that game in before it kicks off. Play Cowboys-Only, Thursday-Only, or submit all your picks for this week on the Holiday Bonus FanPost.
If you really wanted to get ahead, you could join Rex Pfister. Fresh off 28-for-30 the past three weeks, he has posted all thirty picks for weeks #12-14 and challenges anyone to beat him at 30-for-30 the next three weeks.