FanPost

KD's 10-for-10 - 2012 Week #11 Update

Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!

Last week, I opened that I was fit to be tied. The Rams and 49ers cost me my first 10-for-10 by finishing in an overtime tie a short while after the Cowboys finished beating the Eagles.

You've heard of the gift that keeps on giving? Well, this tie keeps on destroying my 10-for-10 scorecard. Last week, I picked the 49ers to beat the Rams. This week, in a reaction to how the Rams stepped up to make the game competitive and the powerful 49ers played down to the Rams, I fell for those "bursts of momentum".

The Jets only needed about two shovelfuls of dirt to be buried and gone. Rams had demolished the Seahawks earlier in St. Louis. One of my easiest picks of the week - Rams over Jets. In the comments I made about each pick, I mused that I hoped my luck would hold out and the Jets would hold off on Tebow-time for another week.

I knew Alex Smith would be out, and I figured that the Bears defense would go ferocious on his backup. I went against the flow, and picked the Bears to keep the 49ers stumbling.

So, for the second week in a row (I know, this is a stretch), the 49ers and Rams kept me - again - from 10-for-10.

It's not like anyone can just step up and go 10-for-10, right? In 2010, only one person (jstaubach) went 10-for-10. In 2011, with the move to the front page, participation increased substantially. Week #2 had three go 10-for-10, and then week #3 added two more. The Hall had gone from one to six members in two weeks. Nine weeks later, something radical happened. On Thanksgiving Weekend, several favored teams, including the Cowboys escaping the Dolphins, were able to post wins. With the stars aligning, nineteen people scored 10-for-10 in that one weekend. The Hall expanded from six to twenty-four members (mdlusk became the first to go 10-for-10 twice; so, twenty-five 10-for-10s by twenty-four people).

This season started "slow", as a couple of newbies scored 10-for-10 in week #1 and week #4. Then, in week #7, another tsunami wave crashed ashore and washed twenty-six more perfect entries into the Hall. Seven of those were second-timers (all from the 2011 week #12 wave), so mdlusk had company in his wing.

Four more were added in week #9, including *Rex Pfister (accidentally picked Atlanta when he meant to pick Dallas; he wasn't allowed to change his pick, so he backed into his first 10-for-10).

I saw it coming on Friday night when I finally had a chance to sit down and record all the picks that had come in on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. I commented:

The most overwhelming action (game and team) is on these games/teams:
- Atl, Dal, GB, Hou, NO, Den, NE, and Bal

Less action, but similar margins of preference go to these teams:
- TB, Cin, StL, Was, and SF

If all eight teams mentioned above win, then we are likely to have many go 10-for-10 this week. If at least one of them loses, then most of us are likely to get knocked out of consideration for 10-for-10 this week.

All eight teams did win on Sunday, which started this 10-for-10 tsunami. But, it almost didn't happen.

My niece had her sixteenth birthday on Sunday, and the extended family went out after church to celebrate her birthday. By the time I got home and turned on the television, the game was in the fourth quarter. Dallas had trailed Cleveland the entire game; Houston was two touchdowns down to Jacksonville; and, Green Bay and Tampa Bay were losing on the road.

Just like this fall's Ryder Cup, all these matches turned. But instead of letting the Euros keep the Cup, these matches turned to keep (most of) us alive for 10-for-10. From a comment late Sunday night:

Bottom line: This is probably our best week ever. But, to show the parity in the NFL, look at this snapshot during the fourth quarter of the early games:

Green Bay – trailed Detroit, rallied to win in regulation
Dallas – trailed Cleveland, rallied to force overtime and win
Houston – trailed Jacksonville, rallied to force overtime and win
Tampa Bay – trailed Carolina, rallied to force overtime and win

We were that close to another week where 6-for-10 was the best score, not the worst.

Out of our 122 participants, 40 scored 10-for-10, 64 scored 9-for-10, 24 scored 8-for-10, 3 scored 7-for-10, and only one (not to be embarassed here) scored 6-for-10. But, we were that close to having 6-for-10 be our top score this week, not our bottom.

We have maintained two trends consistently through my two years of scoring 10-for-10 for KD: declining participation each week, and new players added. Last year, week #11 was the week when non-participants first outnumbered the participants. This year is the same. Last week, we had one more (130) participant than non-participant (129) out of the 259 total who have played 10-for-10 at least once this year (our record 222 in week #1, plus the 37 who have joined during the following weeks).

This week is the first week all season with no new participants. We're still on 259. Last year, participation dropped off substantially during the final weeks of the season. I hope my new Holiday Bonus FanPosts will help reverse that trend.

Here are the incredible numbers from week #11 (even better than our previous record in week #7).

First up is our participation track (referenced above):

Participation
Week Played This Week Missed This Week Total
1 222 0 222
2 199 44 243
3 177 69 246
4 168 83 251
5 149 104 253
6 147 108 255
7 137 119 256
8 137 120 257
9 131 127 258
10 130 129 259
11 122 137 259

Next is our best-ever consensus record (only miss was our pick of Rams over Jets):

Week #11 Results (Home in CAPS)
Win Winners (we're great) Lose
122 HOUSTON Jacksonville 0
121 DALLAS Cleveland 1
116 ATLANTA Arizona 0
113 DENVER San Diego 1
106 New Orleans OAKLAND 4
106 Green Bay DETROIT 3
101 NEW ENGLAND Indianapolis 1
86 Cincinnati KANSAS CITY 1
83 Baltimore PITTSBURGH 3
61 Tampa Bay CAROLINA 5
44 SAN FRANCISCO Chicago 8
37 WASHINGTON Philadelphia 3
Win Losers (we're bleep) Lose
3 New York Jets ST. LOUIS 68
Win Pretty Even (we're indifferent) Lose
16 BUFFALO Miami 7

Unfortunately, we don't gain any ground on the Front-Page Writers. For the second week in a row, they have matched us, game-for-game, and pick-for-pick. They got the same thirteen right, and had the same miss. So, we're still two down in our friendly contest between us "amateurs" and those "professionals" (I know; they get paid as much as we do for our contributions to Blogging the Boys).

2012 10-for-10 Consensus vs. Front Page Writers
Week 10-for-10 Wins 10-for-10 Losses Front Page Wins Front Page Losses
1 11 5 11 5
2 8 8 10 6
3 8 8 5 11
4 10 5 10 5
5 10 4 10 4
6 4 10 6 8
7 12 1 12 1
8 8 6 10 4
9 11 3 10 4
10 9 5 9 5
11 13 1 13 1
Total 104 56 106 54

It's hard to say that we're becoming better at picking specific teams when we got almost every game right. But, here's that updated table:

Picks/Results for Each Team/Each Week
Team Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4 Wk 5 Wk 6 Wk 7 Wk 8 Wk 9 Wk 10 Wk 11 Wk 12 Wk 13 Wk 14 Wk 15 Wk 16 Wk 17 W L
Chicago WW LL WW LW WW Bye WW WW WW LL LL 9 1
Denver WW WL LL WW LL WW Bye WW WW WW WW 9 1
Houston WW WW WW WW WW WL WW Bye WW WW WW 9 1
Jacksonville LL LL LW LL LL Bye LL LL LL LL LL 9 1
Kansas City LL LL LW LL LL LL Bye LL LL LL LL 9 1
San Diego WW WW LL WW LL LL Bye WL WW LL LL 9 1
Baltimore WW WL WW WW WW LW LL Bye WW WW WW 8 2
Cleveland LL LL LL LL LL LW LL LW LL Bye LL 8 2
New England WW WL LL WW WW WL WW WW Bye WW WW 8 2
Oakland LL WL LW LL Bye LL WW WW LL LL LL 8 2
Atlanta WW LW WW WW WW WW Bye WW LW WL WW 7 3
Buffalo WL WW WW LL LL LW WL Bye LL LL WW 7 3
Philadelphia WW LW LL LW LL WL Bye LL LL LL LL 7 3
Pittsburgh LL WW WL Bye WW WL WW WW LW WW LL 7 3
Tampa Bay LW LL LL WL Bye WW LL LW WW WW WW 7 3
Arizona LW LW WW WW WL WL LL LL LL Bye LL 6 4
Cincinnati LL WW LW WW WL WL LL Bye LL LW WW 6 4
Green Bay WL WW WL WW WL LW WW WW WW Bye WW 6 4
Miami LL LW LL LL LW WW Bye LW LL WL LL 6 4
New Orleans WL WL WL LL WW Bye WW LL WW LW WW 6 4
New York Jets LW LL WW LL LL LW LL WL Bye LL LW 6 4
San Francisco LW WW WL WW WW WL WW WW Bye WT WW 6 4
Carolina WL LW WL LL WL Bye LL LL LW LL LL 5 5
Dallas WW WL WW WL Bye WL WW WL WL WW WW 5 5
Detroit WW LL WL WL Bye LW LL LW WW LW LL 5 5
Indianapolis LL LW WL Bye LW WL WW LW WW WW LL 5 5
St Louis LL LW LL LW LW LL LL LL Bye LT WL 5 5
Tennessee LL LL LW LL LL LW LW WL LL LW Bye 5 5
Minnesota WW WL LW LW WW WL WW WL LL WL Bye 4 6
New York Giants LL WW LW WL WW LW WW LW WL WL Bye 4 6
Washington LW WL WL LW LL LW LL LL WL Bye WW 4 6
Seattle WL LW LW WL LW LW LL WL WW WW Bye 3 7

Finally, here are the top 104 scores from week #11 (out of 122) - the forty 10-for-10s and the sixty-four 9-for-10s - along with the top 103 scores in the overall race. Again, if you're not listed in either group, you did worse than 9-for-10, or your total is less than 67. KD's new page lists the entire leaderboard each week, so everyone's overall scores are listed there.

Notable in this third wave - of the forty perfect scores - thirty are first-timers, six (including Rex) are second-timers, and, for the first time, we have four who have now completed their third. Congratulations to @Tonekupone, D_Carter, Hookem Up, and Portland's Cowboy fan! Each of them participated in each of the three waves - 2011 week #12 (among the 19), 2012 week #7 (among the 26), and 2012 week #11 (among the 40).

Also notable: we have never had 20-for-20 (back-to-back perfect weeks), although many have 19-for-20 (mostly around 2011 week #12). KD's recent run (10-9-9 in weeks #7-9) had tied him with jstaubach from 2010 with the best three consecutive weeks at 28-for-30. That record was matched this week by Rex Pfister and behind.enemylines (each 10-8-10 the past three weeks).

KD closed his week #11 contest page with this line:

Now, here's a look at the stagnant Hall.

The Hall is stagnant no longer. We have now had ninety-seven 10-for-10s, and seventy-two have come this season. Here's the scorecard for week #11. Congratulations to all!

Top Scores This Week
Week #11 Score Week #11 Score Overall Score Overall Score
@Tonekupone 10 cowboy1966 9 CowboyBaby 83 Timmy G 75
Against the Wall-24 10 CowboyinExile 9 D_Carter 82 Tunabomber11 75
Aggie Man 10 CowboysFan1994 9 BishopWest 81 Wittenstar82 75
beastygaming 10 cowdog 9 Hawkeye101 81 Antonio S 74
behind.enemylines 10 Cuban Cowboy 9 ChrisMan 80 beastygaming 74
BigBad Joe 10 cwby4lf 9 mdlusk 80 Hookem Up 74
BoydNation 10 Fergie3108 9 hookerhome 79 Howleyesque 74
boys.camncrew 10 Frankster_1 9 j-man 79 MSM33 74
CapitalT 10 fs65 9 KD Drummond 79 SoCal Cowboys 74
ChrisMan 10 gabrielau23 9 krikaley 79 TheBlueBaron 74
cjbrit 10 GordBerl 9 Tennessee_Jed 79 TheDemolitionDan 74
Cowboy Joe 10 illcowboy 9 Travlr 79 Benthere 73
CowboyBaby 10 jakezze01 9 ziggy 19 79 connor.cmr 73
cproctor6 10 jayrosser27 9 Against the Wall-24 78 Cowboy Joe 73
D_Carter 10 Jebediah Flibberbrush 9 Aggie Man 78 jayrosser27 73
eastbeast 10 jockmeister 9 cowboy1966 78 meisternance 73
ginge159 10 jstaubach 9 Frankster_1 78 nikeorlipstick 73
Hawkeye101 10 Junkyard Dog 9 milehightexan 78 skinny post 73
HLCJ69 10 k@s! 9 mushpuppy 78 slowmotion80 73
Hobbes42 10 kethry1313 9 oldboysfan 78 TARHEEL PAUL 73
Hookem Up 10 krikaley 9 Rex Pfister 78 bcg08 72
ibleedcowboyblue 10 Lajitas Lava 9 shainyc 78 jakezze01 72
JDobermans 10 LiveNDieBlue 9 WA_Cowboy 78 One.Cool.Customer 72
j-man 10 Max2 9 Wardo83 78 Rohpuri 72
Johnny Cage 10 mdlusk 9 Alpha 77 @Tonekupone 71
meisternance 10 mehrans9 9 Ben24626 77 CowboyinExile 71
MSM33 10 Mikellie 9 BigBad Joe 77 EchoEcho 71
mushpuppy 10 milehightexan 9 boyman 77 kethry1313 71
oldboysfan 10 Nord15 9 cproctor6 77 lucke 71
Pasipple 10 NorthStar99 9 Fergie3108 77 Aaron Burtram 70
Portland's Cowboy fan 10 One.Cool.Customer 9 JDobermans 77 Bertangalo 70
revellyre 10 Panzer84 9 Jebediah Flibberbrush 77 BoydNation 70
Rex Pfister 10 Rohpuri 9 jstaubach 77 Cuban Cowboy 70
Scurrah Jurrah 10 shainyc 9 revellyre 77 ginge159 70
skinny post 10 Static 9 Through Thick And Thin 77 jockmeister 70
SoCal Cowboys 10 swanhooch 9 wittenfan 77 Junkyard Dog 70
Specific 10 Switters023 9 alfanti 76 Mikellie 70
True Blue-liever 10 Tallgrass Prairie 9 Allan Uy 76 NorthStar99 70
Uncas 10 Tennessee_Jed 9 boys.camncrew 76 Static 70
wittenfan 10 TheBlueBaron 9 CapitalT 76 tsylvest 70
1Bullseye 9 TheDemolitionDan 9 cowdog 76 Tuna Helper 70
Aaron Burtram 9 Through Thick And Thin 9 illcowboy 76 fs65 69
Allan Uy 9 Timmy G 9 Panzer84 76 IRONRAVEN 69
Alpha 9 Travlr 9 Pnut Gallery 76 1Bullseye 68
Antonio S 9 tsylvest 9 True Blue-liever 76 BigHat in NewTexas 68
Ben24626 9 Tuna Helper 9 cee-los 75 GordBerl 68
Benthere 9 Tunabomber11 9 HLCJ69 75 letsgtld 67
Bertangalo 9 WA_Cowboy 9 k@s! 75 LiveNDieBlue 67
BigHat in NewTexas 9 Wardo83 9 Nord15 75 Max2 67
BishopWest 9 Wittenstar82 9 Pasipple 75 ROMO4MVP 67
boyman 9 yellowrose 9 Specific 75 Scurrah Jurrah 67
cee-los 9 ziggy 19 9 Switters023 75 6 tied with 66

As mentioned and linked a bunch of places, I am not taking picks on my weekly FanPosts any more this season. Because people's schedules can become very constraining and demanding during this time of year, it can be difficult to wait until Wednesday or Thursday and "hit the window" between when KD and I get our new pages up and kickoffs of Thursday games.

So, last Saturday, I posted KD's 10-for-10 - 2012 Holiday Bonus #1. It is now in the 10-for-10 Hub, so it is easy to find. On this bonus FanPost, I am taking early picks for Thanksgiving (week #12) through Monday, December 10 (week #14). I will put up a second Holiday Bonus FanPost in early December to take early picks for weeks #15-17.

I don't like seeing participation drop off. I have noticed the past few weeks that we have people who have played every week miss a week. We had three this week (played all ten weeks and missed this week). Last year, the bottom fell out of our participation the past three weeks of the season, when semesters ended and families traveled for Christmas. I hope that these two Holiday Bonus FanPosts keep everyone participating, and not missing playing 10-for-10 the rest of the season.

Get your picks in this week. Since the Cowboys play on Thanksgiving, you need to at least get that game in before it kicks off. Play Cowboys-Only, Thursday-Only, or submit all your picks for this week on the Holiday Bonus FanPost.

If you really wanted to get ahead, you could join Rex Pfister. Fresh off 28-for-30 the past three weeks, he has posted all thirty picks for weeks #12-14 and challenges anyone to beat him at 30-for-30 the next three weeks.

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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