FanPost

KD's 10-for-10 - 2012 Week #12 Update

Last year, we had a then-record number of 10-for-10s during Thanksgiving weekend (2011 week #12) after the Cowboys escaped the Dolphins on Thanksgiving. This year, there was no escape - too deep a hole and not enough time to extricate. This wasn't like the old fable of the farmer whose donkey fell into a well.

The loss was disappointing, but not season-ending. The past two seasons, I have written a series of FanPosts called I Did the Math (2010 and 2011). .

In 2010, after week #13, the Cowboys had rebounded from the 1-7 start, the Tony Romo collarbone fracture, and the Wade Phillips firing to have a 4-8 record. Most of the stories and FanPosts were about tanking the season and looking ahead to the draft. As the "most optimistic fan in the world", I did the math to show that the Cowboys were still mathematically alive to win out and make the playoffs at 8-8. I outlined all the scenarios that had to fall into place, and one by one they began to happen. Alas, strike 3 came in a loss to the Eagles, a loss that mathematicallly eliminated the Cowboys.

In 2011, it was a little different. After week #12, the Cowboys were actually in first place and were 7-4. As the December swoon came, and bloggers grew more negative with each loss (a 1-4 ending to that 7-4 start), I pointed out each week the obvious - the Cowboys still controlled their destiny (one win against the Giants in either opportunity would bury the Giants and win the division) - and the less obvious (at the time, Cowboys were still mathematically alive for the #2 seed and a first-round bye).

With all the doom-and-gloom after the past two games (OT win and narrow loss), I may have to write a third series. We'll see. But, this series is about 10-for-10, so let's turn our attention to KD's contest.

If you are looking for a place to post your week #13 picks, this is not the place. Go to my Holiday Bonus #1 FanPost to post picks for this week (#13) or next week (#14). I will soon have up a Holiday Bonus #2 FanPost for posting picks for weeks #15-17.

Participation has continued its season-long decline. We had our smallest number this season posting this past weekend. However, it's still more than our largest week last season. Hopefully, the Holiday Bonus FanPosts will keep participation up through the rest of the season. Here is our season-long track of our weekly participation:

Participation
Week Played This Week Missed This Week Total
1 222 0 222
2 199 44 243
3 177 69 246
4 168 83 251
5 149 104 253
6 147 108 255
7 137 119 256
8 137 120 257
9 131 127 258
10 130 129 259
11 122 137 259
12 120 139 259

Last season, out of the 256 games that were played, there were three times where we evenly split our consensus - same number of picks favoritn both beams in a game. We had our first tie of 2012 this week. In a game that garnered the least interest - only 30 included this game out of the 120 who participated - exactly fifteen each favored both St. Louis and Arizona. Unlike individual 10-for-10 results, where the St. Louis-San Francisco real-life tie cost me a 10-for-10 (couldn't count it as a win), our consensus picks can be scored a tie. So, our consensus record for this week was 9-6-1.

There were two games that all 120 participants included this week. The Cowboys game was mandated, but everyone also picked the Broncos and Chiefs (unanimous for the Broncos, over 90% for the Cowboys). Here are our results from this weekend, and how we picked each game (with no more byes, several games were heavily played, and others had much less action):

Week #12 Results (Home in CAPS)
Win Winners (we're great) Lose
120 Denver KANSAS CITY 0
112 New England NEW YORK JETS 3
98 CINCINNATI Oakland 0
94 Houston DETROIT 5
79 Baltimore SAN DIEGO 5
75 INDIANAPOLIS Buffalo 5
53 Atlanta TAMPA BAY 13
48 CHICAGO Minnesota 7
33 Carolina PHILADELPHIA 10
Win Losers (we're bleep) Lose
9 Washington DALLAS 111
6 NEW YORK GIANTS Green Bay 68
12 MIAMI Seattle 48
9 JACKSONVILLE Tennessee 30
Win Pretty Even (we're indifferent) Lose
28 CLEVELAND Pittsburgh 37
24 San Francisco NEW ORLEANS 28
15 St. Louis ARIZONA 15

That tie also helped us gain a half-game against the Front Page, and narrow their lead from two games to a game-and-a-half.. They got one that we missed (Tennessee-Jacksonville), and we got one that they missed (Minnesota-Chicago). We gained the half-game because their consensus favored Arizona. In the other thirteen games, we had identical majority preferences.

2012 10-for-10 Consensus vs. Front Page Writers
Week 10-for-10 Wins 10-for-10 Losses Front Page Wins Front Page Losses
1 11 5 11 5
2 8 8 10 6
3 8 8 5 11
4 10 5 10 5
5 10 4 10 4
6 4 10 6 8
7 12 1 12 1
8 8 6 10 4
9 11 3 10 4
10 9 5 9 5
11 13 1 13 1
12 9.5 6.5 9 7
Total 113.5 62.5 115 61

We're still much better at picking certain teams. Although we aren't perfect with any team, we have only missed once with five teams. Houston and Kansas City are "easy" for us. We pick the Texans to win each week (same as Cowboys). So, our record is the same as theirs (10-1). We pick the Chiefs to lose every week; so, our 10-1 record mirrors their 1-10 mark. We have also gone 10-1 doing actual "picking" with Chicago, Denver, and San Diego. With each team, we have only failed once to pick correctly wins and losses.

I counted our "tie" preference this week as "half-right, half-wrong" for St. Louis and Arizona. Here is how we picked each team, each week (updated through week #12):

Picks/Results for Each Team/Each Week
Team Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4 Wk 5 Wk 6 Wk 7 Wk 8 Wk 9 Wk 10 Wk 11 Wk 12 Wk 13 Wk 14 Wk 15 Wk 16 Wk 17 W L
Chicago WW LL WW LW WW Bye WW WW WW LL LL WW 10 1
Denver WW WL LL WW LL WW Bye WW WW WW WW WW 10 1
Houston WW WW WW WW WW WL WW Bye WW WW WW WW 10 1
Kansas City LL LL LW LL LL LL Bye LL LL LL LL LL 10 1
San Diego WW WW LL WW LL LL Bye WL WW LL LL LL 10 1
Baltimore WW WL WW WW WW LW LL Bye WW WW WW WW 9 2
Jacksonville LL LL LW LL LL Bye LL LL LL LL LL LW 9 2
New England WW WL LL WW WW WL WW WW Bye WW WW WW 9 2
Oakland LL WL LW LL Bye LL WW WW LL LL LL LL 9 2
Atlanta WW LW WW WW WW WW Bye WW LW WL WW WW 8 3
Buffalo WL WW WW LL LL LW WL Bye LL LL WW LL 8 3
Cleveland LL LL LL LL LL LW LL LW LL Bye LL LW 8 3
Philadelphia WW LW LL LW LL WL Bye LL LL LL LL LL 8 3
Tampa Bay LW LL LL WL Bye WW LL LW WW WW WW LL 8 3
Cincinnati LL WW LW WW WL WL LL Bye LL LW WW WW 7 4
New York Jets LW LL WW LL LL LW LL WL Bye LL LW LL 7 4
Pittsburgh LL WW WL Bye WW WL WW WW LW WW LL WL 7 4
Arizona LW LW WW WW WL WL LL LL LL Bye LL TL 6.5 4.5
Carolina WL LW WL LL WL Bye LL LL LW LL LL WW 6 5
Detroit WW LL WL WL Bye LW LL LW WW LW LL LL 6 5
Green Bay WL WW WL WW WL LW WW WW WW Bye WW WL 6 5
Indianapolis LL LW WL Bye LW WL WW LW WW WW LL WW 6 5
Miami LL LW LL LL LW WW Bye LW LL WL LL LW 6 5
New Orleans WL WL WL LL WW Bye WW LL WW LW WW WL 6 5
San Francisco LW WW WL WW WW WL WW WW Bye WT WW LW 6 5
St Louis LL LW LL LW LW LL LL LL Bye LT WL TW 5.5 5.5
Dallas WW WL WW WL Bye WL WW WL WL WW WW WL 5 6
Minnesota WW WL LW LW WW WL WW WL LL WL Bye LL 5 6
Tennessee LL LL LW LL LL LW LW WL LL LW Bye WL 5 6
New York Giants LL WW LW WL WW LW WW LW WL WL Bye LW 4 7
Washington LW WL WL LW LL LW LL LL WL Bye WW LW 4 7
Seattle WL LW LW WL LW LW LL WL WW WW Bye WL 3 8

I gave preliminary and summary reports already on KD's week #12 contest page, updating the top scorers for both week #12 and the overall leaderboard. There were no 10-for-10s this week. Only nine survived Thanksgiving by picking the Redskins. Some missed early games on Sunday, and others missed on late games. The final two bit the dust with the Packers' loss to the Giants.

We did have five go 9-for-10, including one who only missed the Cowboys. Congratulations to connor.cmr for that 9-for-10. The other four scored 9-for-10 by picking Washington and missing somewhere else (Tennessee, Seattle, New Orleans, and Green Bay were their misses).

Our average score this week was 6.79-for-10. Our overall leader scored 7-for-10 this week (hitting the average on the nose), but widened his lead over four who are tied for second. If you were one of the thirty-four who scored 9-for-10 or 8-for-10, then you got closer this week. If you were like me, and scored 6-for-10 or worse, then you lost ground.

Congratulations to CowboyBaby for holding onto the lead, and expanding it to two games this week. Last year (see my 2011 week #12 report), Jebediah Flibberbrush held the overall lead with the same score - 90. Here are the top ninety-five scores this week, and the top ninety-five on the overall leaderboard:

Top Scores This Week
Week #12 Score Week #12 Score Overall Score Overall Score
connor.cmr 9 kethry1313 7 CowboyBaby 90 Timmy G 82
Howleyesque 9 Lajitas Lava 7 BishopWest 88 Wittenstar82 82
illcowboy 9 lucke 7 ChrisMan 88 alfanti 81
jstaubach 9 mdlusk 7 D_Carter 88 Allan Uy 81
Realist Larry 9 meisternance 7 Hawkeye101 88 beastygaming 81
1Bullseye 8 Mikellie 7 j-man 87 boys.camncrew 81
Aggie Man 8 mushpuppy 7 KD Drummond 87 CapitalT 81
Antonio S 8 Nord15 7 mdlusk 87 nikeorlipstick 81
bcg08 8 NorthStar99 7 Aggie Man 86 Panzer84 81
Ben24626 8 Pasipple 7 jstaubach 86 bcg08 80
BigBad Joe 8 Portland's Cowboy fan 7 Rex Pfister 86 HLCJ69 80
cee-los 8 revellyre 7 shainyc 86 Hookem Up 80
ChrisMan 8 skinny post 7 ziggy 19 86 jayrosser27 80
CowboysFan1994 8 slowmotion80 7 Against the Wall-24 85 meisternance 80
gabrielau23 8 Specific 7 Ben24626 85 One.Cool.Customer 80
Jebediah Flibberbrush 8 TARHEEL PAUL 7 BigBad Joe 85 Rohpuri 80
j-man 8 Through Thick And Thin 7 cowboy1966 85 skinny post 80
k@s! 8 Timmy G 7 hookerhome 85 slowmotion80 80
KD Drummond 8 Trueblue122 7 illcowboy 85 TARHEEL PAUL 80
letsgtld 8 Tuna Helper 7 Jebediah Flibberbrush 85 TheDemolitionDan 80
Max2 8 Wittenstar82 7 krikaley 85 Benthere 79
MSM33 8 ziggy 19 7 mushpuppy 85 Cowboy Joe 79
nikeorlipstick 8 88Deztined46 6 Tennessee_Jed 85 @Tonekupone 78
One.Cool.Customer 8 Aaron Burtram 6 cproctor6 84 CowboyinExile 78
pierrelmn 8 Babygirl71 6 Fergie3108 84 jakezze01 78
Rex Pfister 8 Benthere 6 Frankster_1 84 kethry1313 78
Rohpuri 8 boyman 6 JDobermans 84 lucke 78
shainyc 8 Cowboy Joe 6 milehightexan 84 Bertangalo 77
SoCal Cowboys 8 cowdog 6 oldboysfan 84 BoydNation 77
Switters023 8 D_Carter 6 revellyre 84 EchoEcho 77
TheBlueBaron 8 EchoEcho 6 Through Thick And Thin 84 ginge159 77
True Blue-liever 8 Frankster_1 6 Travlr 84 jockmeister 77
Tunabomber11 8 Gabby 6 True Blue-liever 84 Junkyard Dog 77
Unique 8 Hobbes42 6 WA_Cowboy 84 Mikellie 77
@Tonekupone 7 Hookem Up 6 Wardo83 84 NorthStar99 77
Against the Wall-24 7 hookerhome 6 boyman 83 Tuna Helper 77
beastygaming 7 ibleedcowboyblue 6 cee-los 83 1Bullseye 76
behind.enemylines 7 jakezze01 6 Howleyesque 83 Aaron Burtram 76
Bertangalo 7 krikaley 6 k@s! 83 Static 76
BishopWest 7 milehightexan 6 Switters023 83 Cuban Cowboy 75
BoydNation 7 MosesArt 6 Tunabomber11 83 letsgtld 75
cowboy1966 7 Oh Hai Doggy 6 wittenfan 83 Max2 75
CowboyBaby 7 oldboysfan 6 Alpha 82 CowboysFan1994 74
CowboyinExile 7 Pnut Gallery 6 Antonio S 82 Unique 74
cproctor6 7 Static 6 connor.cmr 82 Lajitas Lava 73
cwby4lf 7 swanhooch 6 cowdog 82 Gabby 72
Fergie3108 7 Tallgrass Prairie 6 MSM33 82 Realist Larry 72
ginge159 7 Tennessee_Jed 6 Nord15 82 swanhooch 71
Hawkeye101 7 TheDemolitionDan 6 Pasipple 82 yellowrose 71
jayrosser27 7 WA_Cowboy 6 Pnut Gallery 82 pierrelmn 70
JDobermans 7 Wardo83 6 SoCal Cowboys 82 Portland's Cowboy fan 70
jockmeister 7 wittenfan 6 Specific 82 tsylvest 70
Junkyard Dog 7 13 tied with 5 TheBlueBaron 82 4 tied with 69

Again, I apologize for the delay in getting out this FanPost. I'm hitting my busiest time of the year at my church, and I had no opportunity to put this all together the past two days.

Remember (as I said at the beginning of this FanPost), I am not taking early picks on my FanPosts the remainder of the season. You either need to wait for KD's contest page - normally posted on Thursday - or make early picks on my Holiday Bonus FanPost. On the current Holiday Bonus, I am taking early picks for both this week (#13) and next week (#14). In less than a week, I plan to put up Holiday Bonus FanPost #2, where I will take picks for weeks #15-17.

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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