FanPost

KD's 10-for-10 - 2012 Week #14 Update

With all that was going on this weekend, I'm sure that 10-for-10 took a back seat in the eyes of many. But, for those that got their picks in, and persevered to the end, it was an interesting week.

It was not a successful week, as there were no 10-for-10s, and the consensus only got eight games right. However, our large wins (slightly) overcame our large losses, and we averaged almost 6.2 right per ten picks. Our overall leader went 7-for-10, so only the eleven who beat that gained ground on him. Everyone else stayed even or lost ground.

Our participation held relatively steady. We didn't add any new players, for the fifth week in a row, and we - again - had our lowest participation of the year. That trend has continues all year, and it continued this week. Last year, participation dropped off sharply the last three weeks of the season. My hope is that the Holiday Bonus FanPosts will prevent that this year, and we can keep participation high throughout the end of the season.

Notable this week - we had 109 play 10-for-10, and another whose picks were too late. Normally, KD's rule disqualifies that entire entry when the Cowboys kick off early. But, in the spirit of the weekend and the season, he permitted me to count the late picks. So, there were actually 110 total participants this week. Also notable this week - one of our leaders (tied for second coming in) missed getting picks in and fell way back in the overall leaderboard.

Here are our numbers for this week and this season:

Participation
Week Played This Week Missed This Week Total
1 222 0 222
2 199 44 243
3 177 69 246
4 168 83 251
5 149 104 253
6 147 108 255
7 137 119 256
8 137 120 257
9 131 127 258
10 130 129 259
11 122 137 259
12 120 139 259
13 113 146 259
14 110 149 259

We had three unanimous wins this week, and three more that were nearly so. Our combined record in those six games: 514-4. Unfortunately, there were sixteen games this week, and we didn't do as well in the other games. Our losses weren't as bad, and none were unanimous. However, we had three really bad losses (one of which was nearly unanimous) and two other bad losses. And, for the second time this season, we had a tie in our preferences (12 each picked the Jets and Jaguars). We had three games with twenty-five or fewer participants, and six games with ninety or more. When there are no more byes, we tend to cherry-pick the same games, and ignore the same games.

Here are our Week #14 results:

Week #14 Results (Home in CAPS)
Win Winners (we're great) Lose
106 SAN FRANCISCO Miami 0
92 SEATTLE Arizona 1
91 INDIANAPOLIS Tennessee 0
85 GREEN BAY Detroit 2
78 Dallas CINCINNATI 31
71 Denver OAKLAND 1
69 CLEVELAND Kansas City 0
19 NEW ENGLAND Houston 6
Win Losers (we're bleep) Lose
4 Philadelphia TAMPA BAY 89
4 CAROLINA Atlanta 86
1 San Diego PITTSBURGH 78
9 MINNESOTA Chicago 44
8 WASHINGTON Baltimore 29
17 NEW YORK GIANTS New Orleans 24
Win Pretty Even (we're indifferent) Lose
12 New York Jets JACKSONVILLE 12
10 St. Louis BUFFALO 13

With that tie, we also dropped another half game to the Front Page Writers. I have been tracking all season our consensus picks, and comparing them to the consensus page that O.C.C publishes each Thursday (each FPW picks each game). We were ahead early in the season, and have been neck-and-neck most of the way. However, we have begun to lag behind a little. They took the lead over us in Week #6, and expanded it to three games in Week #8. We got closer in Weeks #11 and #12, but have lost ground the past two weeks.

With our 8-7-1 consensus record, they gained a half-game with their 9-7 record, and are now three full games ahead of the 10-for-10 consensus with only three weeks remaining.

We actually had the same picks in fourteen of the sixteen games. We gained a half-game with our tie (even number picked NYJ and Jac), while their consensus lost with Jacksonville. We lost with our preference of the Saints, as their consensus favored the Giants.

Here's the full listing for each week:

2012 10-for-10 Consensus vs. Front Page Writers
Week 10-for-10 Wins 10-for-10 Losses Front Page Wins Front Page Losses
1 11 5 11 5
2 8 8 10 6
3 8 8 5 11
4 10 5 10 5
5 10 4 10 4
6 4 10 6 8
7 12 1 12 1
8 8 6 10 4
9 11 3 10 4
10 9 5 9 5
11 13 1 13 1
12 9.5 6.5 9 7
13 10 6 11 5
14 8.5 7.5 9 7
Total 132 76 135 73

I didn't include this table last week, so I have updated it for both Weeks #13 and #14. We are still almost perfect picking Denver and Houston, and have a good pulse on several other teams. This week was only our second miss picking a Chargers game, as they surprised almost everyone by knocking off the Steelers in Pittsburgh.

Here's the updated Picks/Results table:

Picks/Results for Each Team/Each Week
Team Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4 Wk 5 Wk 6 Wk 7 Wk 8 Wk 9 Wk 10 Wk 11 Wk 12 Wk 13 Wk 14 Wk 15 Wk 16 Wk 17 W L
Denver WW WL LL WW LL WW Bye WW WW WW WW WW WW WW 12 1
Houston WW WW WW WW WW WL WW Bye WW WW WW WW WW LL 12 1
Kansas City LL LL LW LL LL LL Bye LL LL LL LL LL LW LL 11 2
New England WW WL LL WW WW WL WW WW Bye WW WW WW WW WW 11 2
Oakland LL WL LW LL Bye LL WW WW LL LL LL LL LL LL 11 2
San Diego WW WW LL WW LL LL Bye WL WW LL LL LL LL LW 11 2
Jacksonville LL LL LW LL LL Bye LL LL LL LL LL LW LL TL 10.5 2.5
Chicago WW LL WW LW WW Bye WW WW WW LL LL WW WL WL 10 3
Cleveland LL LL LL LL LL LW LL LW LL Bye LL LW WW WW 10 3
Atlanta WW LW WW WW WW WW Bye WW LW WL WW WW WW WL 9 4
Baltimore WW WL WW WW WW LW LL Bye WW WW WW WW WL WL 9 4
Buffalo WL WW WW LL LL LW WL Bye LL LL WW LL WW WL 9 4
Cincinnati LL WW LW WW WL WL LL Bye LL LW WW WW WW LL 9 4
Philadelphia WW LW LL LW LL WL Bye LL LL LL LL LL LL LW 9 4
Tampa Bay LW LL LL WL Bye WW LL LW WW WW WW LL LL WL 9 4
Arizona LW LW WW WW WL WL LL LL LL Bye LL TL LL LL 8.5 4.5
New York Jets LW LL WW LL LL LW LL WL Bye LL LW LL WW TW 8.5 4.5
Green Bay WL WW WL WW WL LW WW WW WW Bye WW WL WW WW 8 5
Miami LL LW LL LL LW WW Bye LW LL WL LL LW LL LL 8 5
Dallas WW WL WW WL Bye WL WW WL WL WW WW WL WW WW 7 6
Detroit WW LL WL WL Bye LW LL LW WW LW LL LL WL LL 7 6
Indianapolis LL LW WL Bye LW WL WW LW WW WW LL WW LW WW 7 6
New Orleans WL WL WL LL WW Bye WW LL WW LW WW WL LL WL 7 6
Pittsburgh LL WW WL Bye WW WL WW WW LW WW LL WL LW WL 7 6
San Francisco LW WW WL WW WW WL WW WW Bye WT WW LW WL WW 7 6
Tennessee LL LL LW LL LL LW LW WL LL LW Bye WL LL LL 7 6
Carolina WL LW WL LL WL Bye LL LL LW LL LL WW WL LW 6 7
Minnesota WW WL LW LW WW WL WW WL LL WL Bye LL LL LW 6 7
St Louis LL LW LL LW LW LL LL LL Bye LT WL TW LW LW 5.5 7.5
New York Giants LL WW LW WL WW LW WW LW WL WL Bye LW WL LW 4 9
Seattle WL LW LW WL LW LW LL WL WW WW Bye WL WL WW 4 9
Washington LW WL WL LW LL LW LL LL WL Bye WW LW LW LW 4 9
Total 264 152

Only one person, TheDemolitionDan, was able to navigate the Week #14 minefield and produce a 9-for-10. He avoided four of the major trap games this week (Atl-Car, Chi-Min, Phi-TB, and Bal-Was). The only one that got him was SD-Pit.

I need to commend a few of the 8-for-10s as well. Alpha scored a trifecta at the end of the early games. He had Dallas over Cincinnati. Shortly after that, I flipped over to NFL Red Zone and watched Washington's comeback against Baltimore. He had that one as well. Then, he really hit the jackpot by being the only one to pick San Diego over Pittsburgh. Major props for that one! But, then, the Eagles' last second score stopped him as he was on his way to buy lottery tickets. Hawkeye101 is the only one at the top to gain ground on our leader, and keeping him from building a near-insurmountable lead. He is now alone in second place, a game ahead of those who were in second place last week.

Rex Pfister and k@s! are part of a side-bet contest going on. Rex started it on my Holiday Bonus #1 by picking all three weeks (#12-14) and challenging anyone to compete with him, Several took him on, and then k@s! upped the ante by making picks in all sixteen games for three weeks. Rex took that challenge as well. I'll have more on that below, but I do want to point out that both of them went 8-for-10 this week - better than everyone except TheDemolitionDan - and each made their Week #14 picks before Thanksgiving. Wow! What does that say for you wimps who wait until Sunday morning and then slog through a 6-for-10 or worse weekend?

Finally, congratulations to CowboyBaby, our overall leader for the fifth week in a row. The last time he was not solely in the lead was the weekend we changed from Daylight back to Standard time (Week #9). He and six others have joined the "100" club, and fifty or more of us are poised to join them this week.

Here are the top eighty-one for Week #14 (if I had included all the 5-for-10s, then that would have been everyone but five; so, I didn't) and the overall leaderboard (if you are not here, then look for KD to list you in his next contest page):

Top Scores This Week
Week #14 Score Week #14 Score Overall Score Overall Score
TheDemolitionDan 9 Against the Wall-24 6 CowboyBaby 104 D_Carter 95
Alpha 8 beastygaming 6 Hawkeye101 102 Fergie3108 95
Hawkeye101 8 Benthere 6 BishopWest 101 meisternance 95
Junkyard Dog 8 BigBad Joe 6 ChrisMan 101 Nord15 95
k@s! 8 BishopWest 6 Rex Pfister 101 Specific 95
Mikellie 8 BoydNation 6 mdlusk 100 Travlr 95
MSM33 8 ChrisMan 6 ziggy 19 100 Wittenstar82 95
pierrelmn 8 Cowboy Joe 6 BigBad Joe 99 Antonio S 94
Rex Pfister 8 cowboy1966 6 j-man 99 boyman 94
Through Thick And Thin 8 CowboyinExile 6 WA_Cowboy 99 HLCJ69 94
WA_Cowboy 8 cproctor6 6 Against the Wall-24 98 Howleyesque 94
1Bullseye 7 cwby4lf 6 Aggie Man 98 One.Cool.Customer 94
Aaron Burtram 7 EchoEcho 6 cowboy1966 98 CapitalT 93
behind.enemylines 7 Frankster_1 6 hookerhome 98 cowdog 93
CapitalT 7 HLCJ69 6 jstaubach 98 jayrosser27 93
connor.cmr 7 Hookem Up 6 k@s! 98 nikeorlipstick 93
CowboyBaby 7 hookerhome 6 KD Drummond 98 Pasipple 93
CowboysFan1994 7 ibleedcowboyblue 6 krikaley 98 skinny post 93
DCB* 7 illcowboy 6 milehightexan 98 Allan Uy 92
jayrosser27 7 jakezze01 6 mushpuppy 98 bcg08 92
krikaley 7 Jebediah Flibberbrush 6 shainyc 98 boys.camncrew 92
Lajitas Lava 7 jockmeister 6 Switters023 98 Hookem Up 92
letsgtld 7 jstaubach 6 Tennessee_Jed 98 kethry1313 92
LiveNDieBlue 7 KD Drummond 6 Through Thick And Thin 98 Mikellie 92
Max2 7 kethry1313 6 connor.cmr 97 1Bullseye 91
mdlusk 7 Landry2008 6 Frankster_1 97 Cowboy Joe 91
meisternance 7 mushpuppy 6 Jebediah Flibberbrush 97 slowmotion80 91
milehightexan 7 nikeorlipstick 6 oldboysfan 97 Ben24626 90
Nord15 7 oldboysfan 6 Panzer84 97 Benthere 90
NorthStar99 7 revellyre 6 True Blue-liever 97 BoydNation 90
One.Cool.Customer 7 shainyc 6 Wardo83 97 jakezze01 90
Panzer84 7 skinny post 6 cproctor6 96 jockmeister 90
Realist Larry 7 Specific 6 illcowboy 96 Junkyard Dog 90
Scurrah Jurrah 7 swanhooch 6 JDobermans 96 letsgtld 90
Shakeepuddn 7 TARHEEL PAUL 6 MSM33 96 NorthStar99 90
Switters023 7 True Blue-liever 6 revellyre 96 SoCal Cowboys 90
Tallgrass Prairie 7 Wardo83 6 TheDemolitionDan 96 TARHEEL PAUL 90
TheBlueBaron 7 wittenfan 6 Timmy G 96 4 tied with 89
Timmy G 7 Wittenstar82 6 wittenfan 96 5 tied with 88
Uncas 7 yellowrose 6 Alpha 95 2 tied with 87
ziggy 19 6 beastygaming 95 4 tied with 86

I have results for the Weeks #12-14 30-for-30 and 48-for-48 contests. Again, Rex issued the 30-for-30 challenge, and k@s! raised it to 48-for-48. There were a total of six 30-for-30 participants and just Rex and k played 48-for-48.

I didn't make tables, but here are the results from Weeks #12-14:

30-for-30:

  • 23 - k@s! (8-7-8), Rex Pfister (also 8-7-8), and Switters023 (8-8-7)
  • 22 - meisternance (7-8-7)
  • 20 - Tallgrass Prairie (6-7-7)
  • 17 - cowdog 6-6-5)

48-for-48:

  • 32 - Rex Pfister (12-10-10)
  • 30 - k@s! (10-10-10)

Both have reissued their challenges and have submitted their picks for 30-for-30 and 48-for-48 already for the final three weeks. They have been joined by meisternance, so there are already at least three participants in both 30-for-30 and 48-for-48.

If you wish to participate in their challenges, or if you just want to post your picks for Week #15 before KD's next contest page, go to my new Holiday Bonus #2. I have been taking picks there now for more than a week, and updated it yesterday to respond to the NFL/NBC flex decision to move games during Week #16.

I originally made the Holiday Bonus FanPosts for the convenience of guys' schedules - travel, vacation, school breaks, etc. So, if you will be out of pocket across the Christmas and/or New Year's holidays, please pre-post your 10-for-10 picks so you won't be among the missing at the end of the season.

Shameless commercial plug - I also began my annual I Did the Math series of FanPosts. Part #1 is up now (link), and I'll have Part #2 up before the weekend.

This is the last week for Thursday Night Football. Get your picks in - here, not here on this page, for this week and the final weeks.

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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