FanPost

KD's 10-for-10 - 2012 Week #15 Update


First off, let me offer congratulations to Nord15, the only one to go 10-for-10 this week. His is the ninety-eighth 10-for-10 in three seasons and his second 10-for-10. He dodged the traps and obstacles that got the rest of us, and gets to join the Wing of Honor for multiple 10-for-10 winners.

For the fourth time this season, we unanimously picked a team that ended up losing. This week's Detroit-Arizona game is the latest chapter in that book of ignominy.

Before I report on all the goings-on from week #15, let me give you an advance look into week #16 and preview my next I Did the Math installment.

Week #16 is the first week to actually be modified by the NFL-NBC flex scheduling. Three games have been moved from their original start times/networks. I have updated my Holiday Bonus #2 to reflect the modified schedule, and I expect the same from KD when he publishes his next contest page.

There are no Thursday games this week or next week. This week has one Saturday night game (ESPN) and fifteen Sunday games. So, there is no rush to make a Thursday Game Only pick. You can wait until Saturday, but by then you might as well pick all ten games.

If you are hitting the road this weekend, and want to make your picks now for this weekend's games and/or the final weekend, you may make them on my Holiday Bonus #2. If you want to wait for KD's next page, he will take week #16 picks only.

Many have been reporting their versions of playoff possibilities. In my I Did the Math series (part 1 and part 2 are already published; I'll link to part 3 when it is up later this week), I don't just regurgitate what everyone else is saying, but I look at every mathematical possibility for the Cowboys, and include updates about our division rivals..

By now, everyone knows that the Cowboys control their own destiny - two wins and the Cowboys are the NFC East champion. If so, where would they be seeded? Short answer - only #4. The worst possible records for the Falcons and 49ers are better than the best possible record for the Cowboys (12-4 and 10-5-1 are better than 10-6). The worst the Packers can finish is also 10-6, but the conference record tiebreaker would belong to the Packers.

Can the Cowboys lose to the Saints and still win the East? Yes, but the Giants would have to lose at least once.

Can the Cowboys lose to the Redskins and still win the East? No. Either the Giants would finish ahead of both, or the Redskins would own the tiebreaker (head-to-head, and better division record).

Can the Cowboys make the playoffs without winning the division? Yes, but there are several teams ahead of them in that queue that would have to fall back in order for the Cowboys to bump them. Shoot, even the Saints are in that queue (at the back of the line). The Saints are still mathematically alive to make the playoffs at 8-8 if every 8-6 team lost both remaining games (Cowboys, Giants, Bears, and Vikings) and the Rams lose at least once (finish no better than 7-8-1).

In the NBA Playoffs, the hardest game to win in a series is the closeout game. Even if a team is down 3-0, their desperation to avoid ending their season brings their best. For the Saints, this is a closeout game. If they beat the Cowboys, then their (flickering) hope still remains. Lose, and they're officially done. The Cowboys need to take care of business this Sunday, and not have to hope that the suddenly impotent Ravens can regain dominance against the equally impotent Giants.

Let me get back on topic and look at week #15.

We are continuing the same trends as last year, and weekly participation continues to decline. For the seventh week in a row, and the thirteenth time this season, I can say that this is the lowest participation of the year. Of course, for the fifteenth time (every week), I can also say that our lowest number this year (102) still exceeds our largest number last year (week #3 - 96).

Here is the table showing our weekly participation:

Participation
Week Played This Week Missed This Week Total
1 222 0 222
2 199 44 243
3 177 69 246
4 168 83 251
5 149 104 253
6 147 108 255
7 137 119 256
8 137 120 257
9 131 127 258
10 130 129 259
11 122 137 259
12 120 139 259
13 113 146 259
14 110 149 259
15 102 157 259

This was a tough week, as our average score was under 6.85-for-10. Most of us (at least seventy) focused on eight specific games, and got six of those right. Only thirty-one cared enough to include the Monday Night Stinker in their ten (I was one of them). Here are our results from week #15:

Week #15 Results (Home in CAPS)
Win Winners (we're great) Lose
93 DALLAS Pittsburgh 9
78 HOUSTON Indianapolis 5
75 MIAMI Jacksonville 1
71 Green Bay CHICAGO 4
61 Denver BALTIMORE 10
60 Seattle BUFFALO 13
58 NEW ORLEANS Tampa Bay 1
47 Cincinnati PHILADELPHIA 3
45 ATLANTA New York Giants 7
40 OAKLAND Kansas City 3
21 TENNESSEE New York Jets 10
Win Losers (we're bleep) Lose
0 ARIZONA Detroit 87
3 San Francisco NEW ENGLAND 72
17 Washington CLEVELAND 40
11 Carolina SAN DIEGO 33
Win Pretty Even (we're indifferent) Lose
18 Minnesota ST. LOUIS 23

That last game, although unimportant to most of us, actually helped greatly in our consensus picks against the Front Page Writers. We entered the weekend three games behind them and matched them pick-for-pick and game-for-game for the first fifteen. However, their consensus favored the Jets, and our small number favored the Titans. So, we gained a full game on them and are only two games behind the "professionals", with two games remaining.

Here's that chart:

2012 10-for-10 Consensus vs. Front Page Writers
Week 10-for-10 Wins 10-for-10 Losses Front Page Wins Front Page Losses
1 11 5 11 5
2 8 8 10 6
3 8 8 5 11
4 10 5 10 5
5 10 4 10 4
6 4 10 6 8
7 12 1 12 1
8 8 6 10 4
9 11 3 10 4
10 9 5 9 5
11 13 1 13 1
12 9.5 6.5 9 7
13 10 6 11 5
14 8.5 7.5 9 7
15 11 5 10 6
Total 143 81 145 79

Almost every week, there are games where everyone picks one team to win and no one picks the other. We had several of those last week, and we usually win as those are normally some of our "easiest" picks.

However, even the most obvious pick sometimes misses. For the fourth time this season, we have unanimously backed a loser. As badly as Arizona looked last week, and as many as they had lost in a row, how could they be competitive against the explosive Lions? Eighty-seven of us picked the Lions. No one picked the Cardinals. Add one more game to this table of Worst Unanimous Losses (fourth worst since I have been keeping track):

Worst Unanimous 10-for-10 "Non-Wins"
Week Picks Our Pick Winner
2012-03 170 San Francisco Minnesota
2012-10 127 San Francisco St. Louis (tie)
2012-13 98 Baltimore Pittsburgh
2012-15 87 Detroit Arizona
2011-02 79 Baltimore Tennessee
2011-08 77 New Orleans St. Louis
2011-10 75 Baltimore Seattle
2011-07 70 Baltimore Jacksonville
2011-15 64 Green Bay Kansas City
2011-04 61 Buffalo Cincinnati
2011-01 60 Cleveland Cincinnati
2011-03 51 Arizona Seattle
2011-13 50 Chicago Kansas City
2011-14 23 Philadelphia Miami

We are starting - finally - to begin to get a feel for certain teams. Some (Denver, Houston, Atlanta, Green Bay, and Dallas) are always picked to win. Others (Kansas City, Jacksonville, New York Jets) are always picked to lose. Others (the ones at the top of this chart) are just "easy" to get right. Either they are playing a "stronger" team and we pick them to lose, or they are playing a "weakling" and we pick them to win. We have only missed once each all year picking Denver and Houston games. We have only missed twice with the Chiefs and Raiders, and are on serious rolls with both Broncos and Raiders. Here are all of our picks for each game this season (again, the first letter is how we picked - win or lose - and the second is the actual result):

Picks/Results for Each Team/Each Week
Team Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4 Wk 5 Wk 6 Wk 7 Wk 8 Wk 9 Wk 10 Wk 11 Wk 12 Wk 13 Wk 14 Wk 15 Wk 16 Wk 17 W L
Denver WW WL LL WW LL WW Bye WW WW WW WW WW WW WW WW 13 1
Houston WW WW WW WW WW WL WW Bye WW WW WW WW WW LL WW 13 1
Kansas City LL LL LW LL LL LL Bye LL LL LL LL LL LW LL LL 12 2
Oakland LL WL LW LL Bye LL WW WW LL LL LL LL LL LL WW 12 2
Jacksonville LL LL LW LL LL Bye LL LL LL LL LL LW LL TL LL 11.5 2.5
Chicago WW LL WW LW WW Bye WW WW WW LL LL WW WL WL LL 11 3
New England WW WL LL WW WW WL WW WW Bye WW WW WW WW WW WL 11 3
San Diego WW WW LL WW LL LL Bye WL WW LL LL LL LL LW WL 11 3
Atlanta WW LW WW WW WW WW Bye WW LW WL WW WW WW WL WW 10 4
Baltimore WW WL WW WW WW LW LL Bye WW WW WW WW WL WL LL 10 4
Buffalo WL WW WW LL LL LW WL Bye LL LL WW LL WW WL LL 10 4
Cincinnati LL WW LW WW WL WL LL Bye LL LW WW WW WW LL WW 10 4
Cleveland LL LL LL LL LL LW LL LW LL Bye LL LW WW WW WL 10 4
Philadelphia WW LW LL LW LL WL Bye LL LL LL LL LL LL LW LL 10 4
Tampa Bay LW LL LL WL Bye WW LL LW WW WW WW LL LL WL LL 10 4
New York Jets LW LL WW LL LL LW LL WL Bye LL LW LL WW TW LL 9.5 4.5
Green Bay WL WW WL WW WL LW WW WW WW Bye WW WL WW WW WW 9 5
Miami LL LW LL LL LW WW Bye LW LL WL LL LW LL LL WW 9 5
Arizona LW LW WW WW WL WL LL LL LL Bye LL TL LL LL LW 8.5 5.5
Dallas WW WL WW WL Bye WL WW WL WL WW WW WL WW WW WW 8 6
Indianapolis LL LW WL Bye LW WL WW LW WW WW LL WW LW WW LL 8 6
New Orleans WL WL WL LL WW Bye WW LL WW LW WW WL LL WL WW 8 6
Pittsburgh LL WW WL Bye WW WL WW WW LW WW LL WL LW WL LL 8 6
Tennessee LL LL LW LL LL LW LW WL LL LW Bye WL LL LL WW 8 6
Detroit WW LL WL WL Bye LW LL LW WW LW LL LL WL LL WL 7 7
San Francisco LW WW WL WW WW WL WW WW Bye WT WW LW WL WW LW 7 7
Carolina WL LW WL LL WL Bye LL LL LW LL LL WW WL LW LW 6 8
Minnesota WW WL LW LW WW WL WW WL LL WL Bye LL LL LW LW 6 8
St Louis LL LW LL LW LW LL LL LL Bye LT WL TW LW LW WL 5.5 8.5
New York Giants LL WW LW WL WW LW WW LW WL WL Bye LW WL LW LL 5 9
Seattle WL LW LW WL LW LW LL WL WW WW Bye WL WL WW WW 5 9
Washington LW WL WL LW LL LW LL LL WL Bye WW LW LW LW LW 4 10
Total 286 162

There were a couple of games that knocked virtually everyone out of 10-for-10 aspirations this weekend. However, one person, Nord15, was able to successfully complete a perfect 10-for-10 this week. He skipped the Detroit-Arizona game and was one of three (out of seventy-five who played) to pick the 49ers to knock off the unbeatable Patriots in Foxborough in December. Right behind him, and missing only one game each, were behind.enemylines and yellowrose. We had twenty-seven get eight right. All of these gained ground on the overall leader, who again is CowboyBaby. This is his sixth week in a row to have the individual lead, and his fourth week in a row to lead by two. However, his lead isn't safe as there are eighteen within six of the lead. I've been dropping like a rock (T-4 and two back after week #10 and now T-20 and seven back after week #15). ~sigh~

This week, I am giving you a treat and listing everyone's weekly score - all one hundred two. I am also listing the top one hundred one on the overall leaderboard. KD will list the complete leaderboard in his contest page. Look also for KD to update his Hall of Fame this week to recognize Nord15.

Here's what I have for this week and this year:

Top Scores This Week
Week #15 Score Week #15 Score Overall Score Overall Score
Nord15 10 k@s! 7 CowboyBaby 111 jayrosser27 101
behind.enemylines 9 Max2 7 ChrisMan 109 boys.camncrew 100
yellowrose 9 MSM33 7 BishopWest 108 CapitalT 100
Alpha 8 mushpuppy 7 Hawkeye101 108 cowdog 100
Antonio S 8 pierrelmn 7 ziggy 19 108 HLCJ69 100
beastygaming 8 Realist Larry 7 Rex Pfister 107 kethry1313 100
boys.camncrew 8 revellyre 7 BigBad Joe 106 skinny post 100
ChrisMan 8 skinny post 7 krikaley 106 Allan Uy 99
cproctor6 8 Static 7 mdlusk 106 nikeorlipstick 99
cwby4lf 8 swanhooch 7 Aggie Man 105 1Bullseye 98
Fergie3108 8 Switters023 7 Jebediah Flibberbrush 105 Cowboy Joe 98
Howleyesque 8 Tallgrass Prairie 7 jstaubach 105 Hookem Up 98
jakezze01 8 Through Thick And Thin 7 k@s! 105 jakezze01 98
jayrosser27 8 Timmy G 7 mushpuppy 105 letsgtld 98
Jebediah Flibberbrush 8 Unique 7 Nord15 105 Mikellie 98
kethry1313 8 Wardo83 7 oldboysfan 105 NorthStar99 98
krikaley 8 Wittenstar82 7 Panzer84 105 Pasipple 98
letsgtld 8 @Tonekupone 6 Switters023 105 SoCal Cowboys 98
lucke 8 Against the Wall-24 6 Through Thick And Thin 105 bcg08 97
meisternance 8 connor.cmr 6 Against the Wall-24 104 Junkyard Dog 97
NorthStar99 8 cowboy1966 6 cowboy1966 104 lucke 97
oldboysfan 8 CowboysFan1994 6 cproctor6 104 slowmotion80 97
One.Cool.Customer 8 Frankster_1 6 hookerhome 104 jockmeister 96
Panzer84 8 Hawkeye101 6 j-man 104 Max2 96
Scurrah Jurrah 8 HLCJ69 6 shainyc 104 TARHEEL PAUL 96
SoCal Cowboys 8 Hookem Up 6 Tennessee_Jed 104 D_Carter 95
Specific 8 hookerhome 6 WA_Cowboy 104 ginge159 95
Travlr 8 illcowboy 6 Wardo83 104 @Tonekupone 94
wittenfan 8 jockmeister 6 wittenfan 104 CowboysFan1994 94
ziggy 19 8 mdlusk 6 Alpha 103 yellowrose 94
1Bullseye 7 Mikellie 6 beastygaming 103 Bertangalo 93
Aggie Man 7 nikeorlipstick 6 connor.cmr 103 CowboyinExile 93
Allan Uy 7 Rex Pfister 6 Fergie3108 103 Realist Larry 93
Bertangalo 7 shainyc 6 Frankster_1 103 Static 93
BigBad Joe 7 slowmotion80 6 JDobermans 103 pierrelmn 92
BishopWest 7 TARHEEL PAUL 6 KD Drummond 103 Gabby 91
boyman 7 Tennessee_Jed 6 meisternance 103 Unique 91
CapitalT 7 TheDemolitionDan 6 milehightexan 103 alfanti 90
Cowboy Joe 7 Babygirl71 5 MSM33 103 Ben24626 90
CowboyBaby 7 bcg08 5 revellyre 103 Benthere 90
cowdog 7 CowboyinExile 5 Specific 103 BoydNation 90
DCB* 7 j-man 5 Timmy G 103 EchoEcho 90
EchoEcho 7 KD Drummond 5 Travlr 103 swanhooch 90
Gabby 7 LiveNDieBlue 5 Antonio S 102 Tallgrass Prairie 90
gabrielau23 7 milehightexan 5 Howleyesque 102 Aaron Burtram 89
ginge159 7 Pasipple 5 illcowboy 102 ibleedcowboyblue 89
Hobbes42 7 True Blue-liever 5 One.Cool.Customer 102 Scurrah Jurrah 89
ibleedcowboyblue 7 WA_Cowboy 5 TheDemolitionDan 102 TheBlueBaron 89
JDobermans 7 alfanti 4 True Blue-liever 102 LiveNDieBlue 88
jstaubach 7 Johnny Cage 4 Wittenstar82 102 Tuna Helper 88
Junkyard Dog 7 Oh Hai Doggy 4 boyman 101 2 tied with 87

Let me go ahead and update on here the progress of the new 30-for-30 and 48-for-48 contests going on on the Holiday Bonus #2. Several of the guys submitted picks for all three weeks and are competing for 30-for-30. Rex Pfister began that on the Holiday Bonus #1 page (for weeks #12-14). k@s! upped the ante by including all sixteen games each week - hence, the name 48-for-48.

Those two began the same contests for these final three weeks, and a few more have joined them. Here's an update on these sidebar contests after the first week:

30-for-30 (eight participants):

  • 8-for-10 - krikaley, meisternance
  • 7-for-10 - cowdog, k@s!, Switters034, Tallgrass Prairie
  • 6-for-10 - Rex Pfister
  • 5-for-10 - WA_Cowboy

48-for-48 (four participants):

  • 13-for-16 - Switters023
  • 11-for-16 - k@s!, meisternance
  • 10-for-16 - Rex Pfister

Please note that Switters023 got seven right in his "regular" 10-for-10, but then got went 6-for-6 with his "extra" picks. Wow!

Rex won both 30-for-30 and 48-for-48 during weeks #12-14, leading virtually wire-to-wire. We have more participants this time. I'll update that in each week's FanPost.

Two more weeks remain in the regular season. Again, you may make picks for either/both weeks on my Holiday Bonus #2 page, or you can post week #16 only on KD's next page when it is published this week.

Merry Christmas to all from the hookerhome!

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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