It's crunch time. As I have been predicting, the Cowboys and Redskins are closing out the season on NBC. If the Cowboys win, they will be division champs. If the Cowboys lose, then they're home - again - for the playoffs.
With both the Cowboys and Texans having near-unanimous support from everyone who played this week, it goes without saying that there were no 10-for-10s this week. We did, though, have nine go 9-for-10. Five missed by picking the Cowboys (an honorable way to go), and the other four picked the Saints and missed other games (three missed with Houston, and one made it through the early games but missed with the Giants).
This is the final chance to catch CowboyBaby, as he continues to maintain the overall lead.
Because the story lines are set and are well-known, I will re-link my other two current FanPosts - Holiday Bonus #2 (make early picks for this weekend's games) and I Did the Math - Part 3 (summarizes and explains all the playoff options for the Cowboys and the other teams that have their playoff lives on the line) - and then make my reports.
For the eighth week in a row (and the fourteenth week this season), our participation is the lowest it's been all season. Only ninety-eight made picks this week. It's still more, though, than last year's largest number (93 played week #3 in 2011).
Here's that table so you can see how our gradual slide continues each week:
| Participation | |||
| Week | Played This Week | Missed This Week | Total |
| 1 | 222 | 0 | 222 |
| 2 | 199 | 44 | 243 |
| 3 | 177 | 69 | 246 |
| 4 | 168 | 83 | 251 |
| 5 | 149 | 104 | 253 |
| 6 | 147 | 108 | 255 |
| 7 | 137 | 119 | 256 |
| 8 | 137 | 120 | 257 |
| 9 | 131 | 127 | 258 |
| 10 | 130 | 129 | 259 |
| 11 | 122 | 137 | 259 |
| 12 | 120 | 139 | 259 |
| 13 | 113 | 146 | 259 |
| 14 | 110 | 149 | 259 |
| 15 | 102 | 157 | 259 |
| 16 | 98 | 161 | 259 |
We actually had a decent record in making picks - 11-5 as a consensus - and our margin of victory was tremendous. In our eleven wins, there were only thirty-four total misses. Four of the wins were unanimous, and three others were only missed by one person each.
Here's how we did in each game:
| Week #16 Results (Home in CAPS) | |||
| Win | Winners (we're great) | Lose | |
| 97 | GREEN BAY | Tennessee | 0 |
| 97 | New England | JACKSONVILLE | 0 |
| 93 | DENVER | Cleveland | 0 |
| 86 | Indianapolis | KANSAS CITY | 1 |
| 79 | CAROLINA | Oakland | 0 |
| 69 | Atlanta | DETROIT | 2 |
| 57 | Chicago | ARIZONA | 4 |
| 43 | Washington | PHILADELPHIA | 13 |
| 33 | MIAMI | Buffalo | 1 |
| 27 | BALTIMORE | New York Giants | 12 |
| 18 | San Diego | NEW YORK JETS | 1 |
| Win | Losers (we're bleep) | Lose | |
| 7 | New Orleans | DALLAS | 91 |
| 3 | Minnesota | HOUSTON | 86 |
| Win | Pretty Even (we're indifferent) | Lose | |
| 11 | SEATTLE | San Francisco | 12 |
| 8 | Cincinnati | PITTSBURGH | 12 |
| 4 | St. Louis | TAMPA BAY | 12 |
We actually lost another game to the Front Page Writers and are now 3 games back. Fifteen of our picks were identical, but they got Seattle right and we narrowly picked the 49ers.
Here's how we did against the Front Page Writers:
| 2012 10-for-10 Consensus vs. Front Page Writers | ||||
| Week | 10-for-10 Wins | 10-for-10 Losses | Front Page Wins | Front Page Losses |
| 1 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 5 |
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 6 |
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 5 |
| 5 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 4 |
| 6 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 8 |
| 7 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 1 |
| 8 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 4 |
| 9 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 4 |
| 10 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 5 |
| 11 | 13 | 1 | 13 | 1 |
| 12 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 9 | 7 |
| 13 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 5 |
| 14 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 9 | 7 |
| 15 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 6 |
| 16 | 11 | 5 | 12 | 4 |
| Total | 154 | 86 | 157 | 83 |
For only the second time this year, we mis-picked Houston. We have also only missed twice picking Kansas City and Oakland. The team we pick best is now Denver (only mis-picked them once all year).
Here's how we did picking each team/each game
| Picks/Results for Each Team/Each Week | |||||||||||||||||||
| Team | Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 | Wk 6 | Wk 7 | Wk 8 | Wk 9 | Wk 10 | Wk 11 | Wk 12 | Wk 13 | Wk 14 | Wk 15 | Wk 16 | Wk 17 | W | L |
| Denver | WW | WL | LL | WW | LL | WW | Bye | WW | WW | WW | WW | WW | WW | WW | WW | WW | 14 | 1 | |
| Houston | WW | WW | WW | WW | WW | WL | WW | Bye | WW | WW | WW | WW | WW | LL | WW | WL | 13 | 2 | |
| Kansas City | LL | LL | LW | LL | LL | LL | Bye | LL | LL | LL | LL | LL | LW | LL | LL | LL | 13 | 2 | |
| Oakland | LL | WL | LW | LL | Bye | LL | WW | WW | LL | LL | LL | LL | LL | LL | WW | LL | 13 | 2 | |
| Jacksonville | LL | LL | LW | LL | LL | Bye | LL | LL | LL | LL | LL | LW | LL | TL | LL | LL | 12.5 | 2.5 | |
| Chicago | WW | LL | WW | LW | WW | Bye | WW | WW | WW | LL | LL | WW | WL | WL | LL | WW | 12 | 3 | |
| New England | WW | WL | LL | WW | WW | WL | WW | WW | Bye | WW | WW | WW | WW | WW | WL | WW | 12 | 3 | |
| San Diego | WW | WW | LL | WW | LL | LL | Bye | WL | WW | LL | LL | LL | LL | LW | WL | WW | 12 | 3 | |
| Atlanta | WW | LW | WW | WW | WW | WW | Bye | WW | LW | WL | WW | WW | WW | WL | WW | WW | 11 | 4 | |
| Baltimore | WW | WL | WW | WW | WW | LW | LL | Bye | WW | WW | WW | WW | WL | WL | LL | WW | 11 | 4 | |
| Buffalo | WL | WW | WW | LL | LL | LW | WL | Bye | LL | LL | WW | LL | WW | WL | LL | LL | 11 | 4 | |
| Cleveland | LL | LL | LL | LL | LL | LW | LL | LW | LL | Bye | LL | LW | WW | WW | WL | LL | 11 | 4 | |
| Philadelphia | WW | LW | LL | LW | LL | WL | Bye | LL | LL | LL | LL | LL | LL | LW | LL | LL | 11 | 4 | |
| New York Jets | LW | LL | WW | LL | LL | LW | LL | WL | Bye | LL | LW | LL | WW | TW | LL | LL | 10.5 | 4.5 | |
| Cincinnati | LL | WW | LW | WW | WL | WL | LL | Bye | LL | LW | WW | WW | WW | LL | WW | LW | 10 | 5 | |
| Green Bay | WL | WW | WL | WW | WL | LW | WW | WW | WW | Bye | WW | WL | WW | WW | WW | WW | 10 | 5 | |
| Miami | LL | LW | LL | LL | LW | WW | Bye | LW | LL | WL | LL | LW | LL | LL | WW | WW | 10 | 5 | |
| Tampa Bay | LW | LL | LL | WL | Bye | WW | LL | LW | WW | WW | WW | LL | LL | WL | LL | WL | 10 | 5 | |
| Arizona | LW | LW | WW | WW | WL | WL | LL | LL | LL | Bye | LL | TL | LL | LL | LW | LL | 9.5 | 5.5 | |
| Indianapolis | LL | LW | WL | Bye | LW | WL | WW | LW | WW | WW | LL | WW | LW | WW | LL | WW | 9 | 6 | |
| Tennessee | LL | LL | LW | LL | LL | LW | LW | WL | LL | LW | Bye | WL | LL | LL | WW | LL | 9 | 6 | |
| Dallas | WW | WL | WW | WL | Bye | WL | WW | WL | WL | WW | WW | WL | WW | WW | WW | WL | 8 | 7 | |
| Detroit | WW | LL | WL | WL | Bye | LW | LL | LW | WW | LW | LL | LL | WL | LL | WL | LL | 8 | 7 | |
| New Orleans | WL | WL | WL | LL | WW | Bye | WW | LL | WW | LW | WW | WL | LL | WL | WW | LW | 8 | 7 | |
| Pittsburgh | LL | WW | WL | Bye | WW | WL | WW | WW | LW | WW | LL | WL | LW | WL | LL | WL | 8 | 7 | |
| Carolina | WL | LW | WL | LL | WL | Bye | LL | LL | LW | LL | LL | WW | WL | LW | LW | WW | 7 | 8 | |
| San Francisco | LW | WW | WL | WW | WW | WL | WW | WW | Bye | WT | WW | LW | WL | WW | LW | WL | 7 | 8 | |
| Minnesota | WW | WL | LW | LW | WW | WL | WW | WL | LL | WL | Bye | LL | LL | LW | LW | LW | 6 | 9 | |
| New York Giants | LL | WW | LW | WL | WW | LW | WW | LW | WL | WL | Bye | LW | WL | LW | LL | LL | 6 | 9 | |
| St Louis | LL | LW | LL | LW | LW | LL | LL | LL | Bye | LT | WL | TW | LW | LW | WL | LW | 5.5 | 9.5 | |
| Seattle | WL | LW | LW | WL | LW | LW | LL | WL | WW | WW | Bye | WL | WL | WW | WW | LW | 5 | 10 | |
| Washington | LW | WL | WL | LW | LL | LW | LL | LL | WL | Bye | WW | LW | LW | LW | LW | WW | 5 | 10 | |
| Total | 308 | 172 | |||||||||||||||||
Even with almost everyone missing Dallas and Houston, the majority of our players went 8-for-10. Our leader was one of those at 8-for-10, so only nine people gained on him, and they only gained one game each. Everyone else maintained their distance or lost ground.
Congratulations to connor.cmr, CowboysFan1994, gabrielau23, ginge159, and Wittenstar82. They are the five who scored 9-for-10 with their only miss the Cowboys loss to the Saints. Brothers, I feel your pain. The other four picked the Saints and do not get special mention.
Congratulations also to CowboyBaby as he continues to maintain his lead in the overall leaderboard. Can he be caught in the final week? We'll see.
Here's a look at the top scores from week #16, along with the top scores on the overall leaderboard.
| Top Scores This Week | |||||||
| Week #16 | Score | Week #16 | Score | Overall | Score | Overall | Score |
| connor.cmr | 9 | swanhooch | 8 | CowboyBaby | 119 | jayrosser27 | 109 |
| CowboyinExile | 9 | TARHEEL PAUL | 8 | ChrisMan | 117 | boys.camncrew | 108 |
| CowboysFan1994 | 9 | TheDemolitionDan | 8 | ziggy 19 | 117 | CapitalT | 108 |
| gabrielau23 | 9 | Travlr | 8 | Hawkeye101 | 116 | cowdog | 108 |
| ginge159 | 9 | True Blue-liever | 8 | BigBad Joe | 114 | kethry1313 | 108 |
| illcowboy | 9 | WA_Cowboy | 8 | BishopWest | 114 | Allan Uy | 107 |
| Realist Larry | 9 | Wardo83 | 8 | mdlusk | 114 | skinny post | 107 |
| Wittenstar82 | 9 | wittenfan | 8 | Rex Pfister | 114 | Cowboy Joe | 106 |
| ziggy 19 | 9 | @Tonekupone | 7 | Aggie Man | 113 | Hookem Up | 106 |
| Against the Wall-24 | 8 | 1Bullseye | 7 | Jebediah Flibberbrush | 113 | NorthStar99 | 106 |
| Aggie Man | 8 | Antonio S | 7 | jstaubach | 113 | SoCal Cowboys | 106 |
| Allan Uy | 8 | Hobbes42 | 7 | krikaley | 113 | 1Bullseye | 105 |
| beastygaming | 8 | Howleyesque | 7 | mushpuppy | 113 | Junkyard Dog | 105 |
| Benthere | 8 | j-man | 7 | Nord15 | 113 | letsgtld | 105 |
| Bertangalo | 8 | Joe21 | 7 | oldboysfan | 113 | nikeorlipstick | 105 |
| BigBad Joe | 8 | Johnny Cage | 7 | Against the Wall-24 | 112 | Pasipple | 105 |
| boys.camncrew | 8 | k@s! | 7 | connor.cmr | 112 | ginge159 | 104 |
| CapitalT | 8 | KD Drummond | 7 | cowboy1966 | 112 | jakezze01 | 104 |
| ChrisMan | 8 | krikaley | 7 | cproctor6 | 112 | lucke | 104 |
| Cowboy Joe | 8 | Landry2008 | 7 | k@s! | 112 | Mikellie | 104 |
| cowboy1966 | 8 | letsgtld | 7 | Switters023 | 112 | slowmotion80 | 104 |
| CowboyBaby | 8 | lucke | 7 | Through Thick And Thin | 112 | TARHEEL PAUL | 104 |
| cowdog | 8 | meisternance | 7 | WA_Cowboy | 112 | Alpha | 103 |
| cproctor6 | 8 | milehightexan | 7 | Wardo83 | 112 | CowboysFan1994 | 103 |
| cwby4lf | 8 | Oh Hai Doggy | 7 | wittenfan | 112 | CowboyinExile | 102 |
| EchoEcho | 8 | Pasipple | 7 | beastygaming | 111 | jockmeister | 102 |
| Fergie3108 | 8 | Rex Pfister | 7 | Fergie3108 | 111 | Realist Larry | 102 |
| Frankster_1 | 8 | shainyc | 7 | Frankster_1 | 111 | @Tonekupone | 101 |
| Hawkeye101 | 8 | skinny post | 7 | illcowboy | 111 | Bertangalo | 101 |
| Hookem Up | 8 | slowmotion80 | 7 | JDobermans | 111 | boyman | 101 |
| ibleedcowboyblue | 8 | Specific | 7 | j-man | 111 | Static | 101 |
| jayrosser27 | 8 | Switters023 | 7 | MSM33 | 111 | HLCJ69 | 100 |
| JDobermans | 8 | Tennessee_Jed | 7 | revellyre | 111 | Benthere | 98 |
| Jebediah Flibberbrush | 8 | Through Thick And Thin | 7 | shainyc | 111 | EchoEcho | 98 |
| jstaubach | 8 | Timmy G | 7 | Tennessee_Jed | 111 | swanhooch | 98 |
| Junkyard Dog | 8 | Tuna Helper | 7 | Travlr | 111 | yellowrose | 98 |
| kethry1313 | 8 | BishopWest | 6 | Wittenstar82 | 111 | bcg08 | 97 |
| mdlusk | 8 | DCB* | 6 | hookerhome | 110 | ibleedcowboyblue | 97 |
| MSM33 | 8 | hookerhome | 6 | KD Drummond | 110 | Scurrah Jurrah | 97 |
| mushpuppy | 8 | jakezze01 | 6 | meisternance | 110 | Gabby | 96 |
| Nord15 | 8 | jockmeister | 6 | milehightexan | 110 | Max2 | 96 |
| NorthStar99 | 8 | Lajitas Lava | 6 | One.Cool.Customer | 110 | pierrelmn | 96 |
| oldboysfan | 8 | Mikellie | 6 | Panzer84 | 110 | D_Carter | 95 |
| One.Cool.Customer | 8 | nikeorlipstick | 6 | Specific | 110 | Tallgrass Prairie | 95 |
| revellyre | 8 | Gabby | 5 | TheDemolitionDan | 110 | Tuna Helper | 95 |
| Scurrah Jurrah | 8 | Panzer84 | 5 | Timmy G | 110 | gabrielau23 | 93 |
| Shakeepuddn | 8 | Tallgrass Prairie | 5 | True Blue-liever | 110 | Lajitas Lava | 93 |
| SoCal Cowboys | 8 | pierrelmn | 4 | Antonio S | 109 | Unique | 91 |
| Static | 8 | yellowrose | 4 | Howleyesque | 109 | 3 tied with | 90 |
Even though I am continuing my slide into oblivion from near the top of the leaderboard, I am now part of an all-star group. My slide allowed me to be matched by the two Front Page Writers who are active in 10-for-10. And, because I list ties alphabetically, I am still on top of KD Drummond and One.Cool.Customer.
Finally, I am continuing to track the side contests that have been running the past five weeks. We are in our second three-week contest of 30-for-30 (begun by Rex Pfister) and bumped up to 48-for-48 (all sixteen games each week - by k@s!).
We have eight participants in 30-for-30 and four of them are also participating in 48-for-48.
Here are the updated 30-for-30 scores for weeks #15-16:
Here are the updated 48-for-48 scores for weeks #15-16:
These guys all made their picks for weeks #15-17 before any week #15 game had begun, and have been unable to change their picks as individual teams have soared or sunk, or as other circumstances have dictated. They have held their own against the lead and have not really lost any ground.
Let's see how well they do with their week #17 picks, and see how well they prognosticated who is playing and who is resting this weekend.
Next week, I'll scoop KD with an announcement of the overall winner, plus organize a pick-em contest for Wild Card Weekend. See you then.
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