FanPost

KD's 10-for-10 - 2012 Week #16 Update

It's crunch time. As I have been predicting, the Cowboys and Redskins are closing out the season on NBC. If the Cowboys win, they will be division champs. If the Cowboys lose, then they're home - again - for the playoffs.

With both the Cowboys and Texans having near-unanimous support from everyone who played this week, it goes without saying that there were no 10-for-10s this week. We did, though, have nine go 9-for-10. Five missed by picking the Cowboys (an honorable way to go), and the other four picked the Saints and missed other games (three missed with Houston, and one made it through the early games but missed with the Giants).

This is the final chance to catch CowboyBaby, as he continues to maintain the overall lead.

Because the story lines are set and are well-known, I will re-link my other two current FanPosts - Holiday Bonus #2 (make early picks for this weekend's games) and I Did the Math - Part 3 (summarizes and explains all the playoff options for the Cowboys and the other teams that have their playoff lives on the line) - and then make my reports.

For the eighth week in a row (and the fourteenth week this season), our participation is the lowest it's been all season. Only ninety-eight made picks this week. It's still more, though, than last year's largest number (93 played week #3 in 2011).

Here's that table so you can see how our gradual slide continues each week:

Participation
Week Played This Week Missed This Week Total
1 222 0 222
2 199 44 243
3 177 69 246
4 168 83 251
5 149 104 253
6 147 108 255
7 137 119 256
8 137 120 257
9 131 127 258
10 130 129 259
11 122 137 259
12 120 139 259
13 113 146 259
14 110 149 259
15 102 157 259
16 98 161 259

We actually had a decent record in making picks - 11-5 as a consensus - and our margin of victory was tremendous. In our eleven wins, there were only thirty-four total misses. Four of the wins were unanimous, and three others were only missed by one person each.

Here's how we did in each game:

Week #16 Results (Home in CAPS)
Win Winners (we're great) Lose
97 GREEN BAY Tennessee 0
97 New England JACKSONVILLE 0
93 DENVER Cleveland 0
86 Indianapolis KANSAS CITY 1
79 CAROLINA Oakland 0
69 Atlanta DETROIT 2
57 Chicago ARIZONA 4
43 Washington PHILADELPHIA 13
33 MIAMI Buffalo 1
27 BALTIMORE New York Giants 12
18 San Diego NEW YORK JETS 1
Win Losers (we're bleep) Lose
7 New Orleans DALLAS 91
3 Minnesota HOUSTON 86
Win Pretty Even (we're indifferent) Lose
11 SEATTLE San Francisco 12
8 Cincinnati PITTSBURGH 12
4 St. Louis TAMPA BAY 12

We actually lost another game to the Front Page Writers and are now 3 games back. Fifteen of our picks were identical, but they got Seattle right and we narrowly picked the 49ers.

Here's how we did against the Front Page Writers:

2012 10-for-10 Consensus vs. Front Page Writers
Week 10-for-10 Wins 10-for-10 Losses Front Page Wins Front Page Losses
1 11 5 11 5
2 8 8 10 6
3 8 8 5 11
4 10 5 10 5
5 10 4 10 4
6 4 10 6 8
7 12 1 12 1
8 8 6 10 4
9 11 3 10 4
10 9 5 9 5
11 13 1 13 1
12 9.5 6.5 9 7
13 10 6 11 5
14 8.5 7.5 9 7
15 11 5 10 6
16 11 5 12 4
Total 154 86 157 83

For only the second time this year, we mis-picked Houston. We have also only missed twice picking Kansas City and Oakland. The team we pick best is now Denver (only mis-picked them once all year).

Here's how we did picking each team/each game

Picks/Results for Each Team/Each Week
Team Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4 Wk 5 Wk 6 Wk 7 Wk 8 Wk 9 Wk 10 Wk 11 Wk 12 Wk 13 Wk 14 Wk 15 Wk 16 Wk 17 W L
Denver WW WL LL WW LL WW Bye WW WW WW WW WW WW WW WW WW 14 1
Houston WW WW WW WW WW WL WW Bye WW WW WW WW WW LL WW WL 13 2
Kansas City LL LL LW LL LL LL Bye LL LL LL LL LL LW LL LL LL 13 2
Oakland LL WL LW LL Bye LL WW WW LL LL LL LL LL LL WW LL 13 2
Jacksonville LL LL LW LL LL Bye LL LL LL LL LL LW LL TL LL LL 12.5 2.5
Chicago WW LL WW LW WW Bye WW WW WW LL LL WW WL WL LL WW 12 3
New England WW WL LL WW WW WL WW WW Bye WW WW WW WW WW WL WW 12 3
San Diego WW WW LL WW LL LL Bye WL WW LL LL LL LL LW WL WW 12 3
Atlanta WW LW WW WW WW WW Bye WW LW WL WW WW WW WL WW WW 11 4
Baltimore WW WL WW WW WW LW LL Bye WW WW WW WW WL WL LL WW 11 4
Buffalo WL WW WW LL LL LW WL Bye LL LL WW LL WW WL LL LL 11 4
Cleveland LL LL LL LL LL LW LL LW LL Bye LL LW WW WW WL LL 11 4
Philadelphia WW LW LL LW LL WL Bye LL LL LL LL LL LL LW LL LL 11 4
New York Jets LW LL WW LL LL LW LL WL Bye LL LW LL WW TW LL LL 10.5 4.5
Cincinnati LL WW LW WW WL WL LL Bye LL LW WW WW WW LL WW LW 10 5
Green Bay WL WW WL WW WL LW WW WW WW Bye WW WL WW WW WW WW 10 5
Miami LL LW LL LL LW WW Bye LW LL WL LL LW LL LL WW WW 10 5
Tampa Bay LW LL LL WL Bye WW LL LW WW WW WW LL LL WL LL WL 10 5
Arizona LW LW WW WW WL WL LL LL LL Bye LL TL LL LL LW LL 9.5 5.5
Indianapolis LL LW WL Bye LW WL WW LW WW WW LL WW LW WW LL WW 9 6
Tennessee LL LL LW LL LL LW LW WL LL LW Bye WL LL LL WW LL 9 6
Dallas WW WL WW WL Bye WL WW WL WL WW WW WL WW WW WW WL 8 7
Detroit WW LL WL WL Bye LW LL LW WW LW LL LL WL LL WL LL 8 7
New Orleans WL WL WL LL WW Bye WW LL WW LW WW WL LL WL WW LW 8 7
Pittsburgh LL WW WL Bye WW WL WW WW LW WW LL WL LW WL LL WL 8 7
Carolina WL LW WL LL WL Bye LL LL LW LL LL WW WL LW LW WW 7 8
San Francisco LW WW WL WW WW WL WW WW Bye WT WW LW WL WW LW WL 7 8
Minnesota WW WL LW LW WW WL WW WL LL WL Bye LL LL LW LW LW 6 9
New York Giants LL WW LW WL WW LW WW LW WL WL Bye LW WL LW LL LL 6 9
St Louis LL LW LL LW LW LL LL LL Bye LT WL TW LW LW WL LW 5.5 9.5
Seattle WL LW LW WL LW LW LL WL WW WW Bye WL WL WW WW LW 5 10
Washington LW WL WL LW LL LW LL LL WL Bye WW LW LW LW LW WW 5 10
Total 308 172

Even with almost everyone missing Dallas and Houston, the majority of our players went 8-for-10. Our leader was one of those at 8-for-10, so only nine people gained on him, and they only gained one game each. Everyone else maintained their distance or lost ground.

Congratulations to connor.cmr, CowboysFan1994, gabrielau23, ginge159, and Wittenstar82. They are the five who scored 9-for-10 with their only miss the Cowboys loss to the Saints. Brothers, I feel your pain. The other four picked the Saints and do not get special mention.

Congratulations also to CowboyBaby as he continues to maintain his lead in the overall leaderboard. Can he be caught in the final week? We'll see.

Here's a look at the top scores from week #16, along with the top scores on the overall leaderboard.

Top Scores This Week
Week #16 Score Week #16 Score Overall Score Overall Score
connor.cmr 9 swanhooch 8 CowboyBaby 119 jayrosser27 109
CowboyinExile 9 TARHEEL PAUL 8 ChrisMan 117 boys.camncrew 108
CowboysFan1994 9 TheDemolitionDan 8 ziggy 19 117 CapitalT 108
gabrielau23 9 Travlr 8 Hawkeye101 116 cowdog 108
ginge159 9 True Blue-liever 8 BigBad Joe 114 kethry1313 108
illcowboy 9 WA_Cowboy 8 BishopWest 114 Allan Uy 107
Realist Larry 9 Wardo83 8 mdlusk 114 skinny post 107
Wittenstar82 9 wittenfan 8 Rex Pfister 114 Cowboy Joe 106
ziggy 19 9 @Tonekupone 7 Aggie Man 113 Hookem Up 106
Against the Wall-24 8 1Bullseye 7 Jebediah Flibberbrush 113 NorthStar99 106
Aggie Man 8 Antonio S 7 jstaubach 113 SoCal Cowboys 106
Allan Uy 8 Hobbes42 7 krikaley 113 1Bullseye 105
beastygaming 8 Howleyesque 7 mushpuppy 113 Junkyard Dog 105
Benthere 8 j-man 7 Nord15 113 letsgtld 105
Bertangalo 8 Joe21 7 oldboysfan 113 nikeorlipstick 105
BigBad Joe 8 Johnny Cage 7 Against the Wall-24 112 Pasipple 105
boys.camncrew 8 k@s! 7 connor.cmr 112 ginge159 104
CapitalT 8 KD Drummond 7 cowboy1966 112 jakezze01 104
ChrisMan 8 krikaley 7 cproctor6 112 lucke 104
Cowboy Joe 8 Landry2008 7 k@s! 112 Mikellie 104
cowboy1966 8 letsgtld 7 Switters023 112 slowmotion80 104
CowboyBaby 8 lucke 7 Through Thick And Thin 112 TARHEEL PAUL 104
cowdog 8 meisternance 7 WA_Cowboy 112 Alpha 103
cproctor6 8 milehightexan 7 Wardo83 112 CowboysFan1994 103
cwby4lf 8 Oh Hai Doggy 7 wittenfan 112 CowboyinExile 102
EchoEcho 8 Pasipple 7 beastygaming 111 jockmeister 102
Fergie3108 8 Rex Pfister 7 Fergie3108 111 Realist Larry 102
Frankster_1 8 shainyc 7 Frankster_1 111 @Tonekupone 101
Hawkeye101 8 skinny post 7 illcowboy 111 Bertangalo 101
Hookem Up 8 slowmotion80 7 JDobermans 111 boyman 101
ibleedcowboyblue 8 Specific 7 j-man 111 Static 101
jayrosser27 8 Switters023 7 MSM33 111 HLCJ69 100
JDobermans 8 Tennessee_Jed 7 revellyre 111 Benthere 98
Jebediah Flibberbrush 8 Through Thick And Thin 7 shainyc 111 EchoEcho 98
jstaubach 8 Timmy G 7 Tennessee_Jed 111 swanhooch 98
Junkyard Dog 8 Tuna Helper 7 Travlr 111 yellowrose 98
kethry1313 8 BishopWest 6 Wittenstar82 111 bcg08 97
mdlusk 8 DCB* 6 hookerhome 110 ibleedcowboyblue 97
MSM33 8 hookerhome 6 KD Drummond 110 Scurrah Jurrah 97
mushpuppy 8 jakezze01 6 meisternance 110 Gabby 96
Nord15 8 jockmeister 6 milehightexan 110 Max2 96
NorthStar99 8 Lajitas Lava 6 One.Cool.Customer 110 pierrelmn 96
oldboysfan 8 Mikellie 6 Panzer84 110 D_Carter 95
One.Cool.Customer 8 nikeorlipstick 6 Specific 110 Tallgrass Prairie 95
revellyre 8 Gabby 5 TheDemolitionDan 110 Tuna Helper 95
Scurrah Jurrah 8 Panzer84 5 Timmy G 110 gabrielau23 93
Shakeepuddn 8 Tallgrass Prairie 5 True Blue-liever 110 Lajitas Lava 93
SoCal Cowboys 8 pierrelmn 4 Antonio S 109 Unique 91
Static 8 yellowrose 4 Howleyesque 109 3 tied with 90

Even though I am continuing my slide into oblivion from near the top of the leaderboard, I am now part of an all-star group. My slide allowed me to be matched by the two Front Page Writers who are active in 10-for-10. And, because I list ties alphabetically, I am still on top of KD Drummond and One.Cool.Customer.

Finally, I am continuing to track the side contests that have been running the past five weeks. We are in our second three-week contest of 30-for-30 (begun by Rex Pfister) and bumped up to 48-for-48 (all sixteen games each week - by k@s!).

We have eight participants in 30-for-30 and four of them are also participating in 48-for-48.

Here are the updated 30-for-30 scores for weeks #15-16:

  • 15 - cowdog (7-8), krikaley and meisternance (both 8-7)
  • 14 - k@s! and Switters023 (both 7-7)
  • 13 - Rex Pfister (6-7), WA_Cowboy (5-8)
  • 12 - Tallgrass Prairie (7-5)

Here are the updated 48-for-48 scores for weeks #15-16:

  • 23 - Switters023 (13-10)
  • 20 - k@s! and meisternance (both 11-9)
  • 18 - Rex Pfister (10-8)

These guys all made their picks for weeks #15-17 before any week #15 game had begun, and have been unable to change their picks as individual teams have soared or sunk, or as other circumstances have dictated. They have held their own against the lead and have not really lost any ground.

Let's see how well they do with their week #17 picks, and see how well they prognosticated who is playing and who is resting this weekend.

Next week, I'll scoop KD with an announcement of the overall winner, plus organize a pick-em contest for Wild Card Weekend. See you then.

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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