FanPost

Debating Tony Romo's December performance vs. Eli Manning


I have a coworker who is a San Francisco fan and loves spouting insults about Tony Romo. His latest nonsense was the meme that Tony Romo is a bad December quarterback and the Cowboys have no chance of making the playoffs. I felt the need to refute his claims using data. The best data I could easily find to analyze the performance over Romo's career is quarterback rating. While the new QBR may be better, I could only find it through 2007, and for my purposes I felt the two ratings were close enough. Unfortunately, I did initially find that Romo's average rating has declined during the last few weeks of the season. The decline was much more pronounced during the 2006-2008 seasons, which is when many casual fans may have formed their opinions about Romo. In 2009, 2011 (except for that disastrous Philadelphia Christmas Eve Game), and thus far in 2012, however, he has broken that pattern.

Secondarily, I wanted to check whether other quarterbacks might have a similar pattern, in case it might be a weather related phenomenon, or maybe due to the grind of the season. For comparison I used Eli Manning's quarter back rating. Manning's rating also declined slightly through week 16, but markedly improved during week 17 and the playoffs, so it is easy for me to see how he might have earned his reputation, despite having a 14 point lower career rating. I am limited to text, so I pasted my data grid below for Romo and Manning (the averages exclude the zero value weeks)

Does anyone have a similar, more comprehensive comparison I could use, that could potentially compare all quarterbacks, and not just these two?

Romo

Week 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Average
1 0 128.5 103.6 140.6 89.1 101.9 129.5 115.5
2 0 92 123.2 29.6 78.4 116.4 74.1 85.6
3 0 100.8 82.6 89.8 127.6 70.9 75.1 91.1
4 0 115.6 90.7 67.1 0 86.4 60.1 84.0
5 0 49.9 106.2 0 89.6 0 81.9
6 158.3 91 116.2 113.7 98.4 87.1 97.1 108.8
7 73.7 104.8 0 141.6 124.4 107.3 98.5 108.4
8 86.6 0 0 108.1 0 66.7 58.3 79.9
9 109 141.7 0 88.7 0 112.2 109.3 112.2
10 126.8 123.1 0 78 0 148.4 122.1 119.7
11 89.5 124.1 72.8 69.7 0 113.8 93.2 93.9
12 148.9 102.5 113.3 121.2 0 78.8 84.1 108.1
13 58.1 123.5 113.7 112.1 0 95.2 150.5 108.9
14 58.8 110.4 44.9 111.7 0 141.3 74.6 90.3
15 113.9 22.2 113.7 104 0 133.9 111.3 99.8
16 45.5 81.2 66.2 86.1 0 39.6 123.8 73.7
17 111.6 34.9 55.8 106.4 0 106 0 82.9
18 89.6 64.7 0 104.9 0 0 0 86.4
19 0 0 0 66.1 0 0 0

66.1

Eli Manning

Wk 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Average
1 62.2 88.7 113.1 61.1 93.5 87.9 70.8 94.9 84.0
2 89.8 111.7 75.5 131.4 110.6 85.6 94.2 89.5 98.5
3 102.9 82.5 63.7 88.2 106.4 77.3 145.7 110.2 97.1
4 120.7 0 65.4 0 104 79.2 108.4 86.3 94.0
5 0 102.6 86.4 136.6 158.3 89.1 91.8 103.3 109.7
6 70.3 68.8 87.9 57.1 61 104.4 94.8 87.4 79.0
7 74.9 80.4 78.2 77.5 47.5 100.4 0 78.9 76.8
8 51.3 76.5 44.9 87.9 55.7 0 106.6 58.4 68.8
9 89.3 76.3 0 95.8 112.6 125.8 77.9 41.1 88.4
10 39.5 28.3 72.7 81.5 0 88.3 84.5 56 64.4
11 130 51.9 100.7 73.3 111.5 53.5 74 85.0
12 79.4 59.1 33.8 127.3 65.6 117.7 101.9 114.4 87.4
13 27.9 107.4 63 88.5 88.9 62.3 100.7 98 79.6
14 63.8 97 88 73.5 130.5 59.2 90.7 99.6 87.8
15 68 69 51.1 43.9 144.4 105.6 45.5 38.9 70.8
16 71.6 41.3 32.2 94.8 75.3 63.6 61.5 78 64.8
17 93.1 69.6 118.6 76.4 71.1 83 136.7 0 92.6
18 0 0 117.1 0 0 0 129.3 0 123.2
19 0 0 132.4 40.7 0 0 114.5 0 95.9
20 0 0 72 0 0 0 82.3 0 77.2
21 0 0 87.3 0 0 0 103.8 0 95.6

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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