How good are TV Football Pundits, and Jerry Jones, at Ranking Talent?

by revellyre on Feb 21, 2012 8:47 PM CST

How much can you trust guys like Mike Mayock to get it right? And what might you have done differently, in hindsight, if you were running the Dallas war room in 2008? Going back through my notes, I came across Mayock's top prospects, along with the draft order of the players taken in round 1, below and thought you guys might want to check them out. This one's from four years ago, so the players have already had plenty of time to show their skills (or lack thereof).

Dallas managed to nab three players (in italics below) on Mayock's list, so judge for yourself how well JJ and co. did on draft day. At the very bottom, you'll find the actual draft pick order, and each teams' choice, in round 1.

So, in retrospect, how well do you think the draft "expert", and Dallas' front office, did? Which teams really nailed it in 2008, and how good are those teams today, due to their drafting prowess, compared to the Cowboys?

BTW, if anyone wants to see the pundit's picks for 2009, 2010, etc., I might be able to find time to look everything up and make another post, if there's enough interest.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story?id=09000d5d80406b71&template=with-video&confirm=true

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2008

Mike Mayock's draft prospect rankings

Mayock's top 5 QBs:

1. Matt Ryan Boston College
2. Joe Flacco Delaware
3. Chad Henne Michigan
4. Brian Brohm Louisville
5. John David Booty USC

Mayock's top 5 DEs:

1. Chris Long Virginia
2. Vernon Gholston Ohio State
3. Derrick Harvey Florida
4. Phillip Merling Clemson
5. Calais Campbell Miami (Fla.)

Mayock's top 5 WRs:

1. Devin Thomas Michigan State
2. DeSean Jackson California
3. Limas Sweed Texas
4. Mario Manningham Michigan
5. Jordy Nelson Kansas State

Mayock's top 5 DTs:

1. Glenn Dorsey LSU
2. Sedrick Ellis USC
3. Kentwan Balmer North Carolina
4. Trevor Laws Notre Dame
5. Dre Moore Maryland

Mayock's top 5 TEs:

1. Dustin Keller Purdue
2. John Carlson Notre Dame
3. Martellus Bennett Texas A&M
4. Fred Davis USC
5. Jermichael Finley Tennessee

Mayock's top 5 ILBs:

1. Jerod Mayo Tennessee
2. Dan Connor Penn State
3. Curtis Lofton Oklahoma
4. Jordan Dizon Colorado
5. Beau Bell UNLV

Mayock's top 5 RBs:

1. Rashard Mendenhall Illinois
2. Darren McFadden Arkansas
3. Jonathan Stewart Oregon
4. Felix Jones Arkansas
5. Jamaal Charles Texas

Mayock's top 5 OLBs:

1. Keith Rivers USC
2. Xavier Adibi Virginia Tech
3. Tavares Gooden Miami (Fla.)
4. Stanford Keglar Purdue
5. Wesley Woodyard Kentucky

Mayock's top 5 OTs:

1. Jake Long Michigan
2. Jeff Otah Pittsburgh
3. Ryan Clady Boise State
4. Chris Williams Vanderbilt
5. Gosder Cherilus Boston College

Mayock's top 5 CBs:

1. Leodis McKelvin Troy
2. Aqib Talib Kansas
3. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie Tennessee State
4. Mike Jenkins South Florida
5. Brandon Flowers Virginia Tech

Mayock's top 5 interior OL:

1. Branden Albert Virginia
2. Chilo Rachal USC
3. Jeremy Zuttah Rutgers
4. Mike Pollak Arizona State
5. Roy Schuening Oregon State

Mayock's top 5 Safeties:

1. Tyrell Johnson Arkansas State
2. Kenny Phillips Miami (Fla.)
3. DaJuan Morgan N.C. State
4. Thomas DeCoud California
5. Josh Barrett Arizona State

1	Miami	Long, Jake	OT
2	St. Louis	Long, Chris	DE
3	Atlanta	Ryan, Matt	QB
4	Oakland	McFadden, Darren	RB
5	Kansas City	Dorsey, Glenn	DT
6	NY Jets	Gholston, Vernon	DE
7	New Orleans	Ellis, Sedrick	DT
8	Jacksonville	Harvey, Derrick	DE
9	Cincinnati	Rivers, Keith	LB
10	New England	Mayo, Jerod	OLB
11	Buffalo	McKelvin, Leodis	CB
12	Denver	Clady, Ryan	OT
13	Carolina	Stewart, Jonathan	RB
14	Chicago	Williams, Chris	OT
15	Kansas City	Albert, Branden	OG
16	Arizona	Rodgers-Cromartie, Dominique	CB
17	Detroit	Cherilus, Gosder	OT
18	Baltimore	Flacco, Joe	QB
19	Carolina	Otah, Jeff	OT
20	Tampa Bay	Talib, Aqib	CB
21	Atlanta	Baker, Sam	OT
22	Dallas	Jones, Felix	RB
23	Pittsburgh	Mendenhall, Rashard	RB
24	Tennessee	Johnson, Chris	RB
25	Dallas	Jenkins, Mike	CB
26	Houston	Brown, Duane	OT
27	San Diego	Cason, Antoine	CB
28	Seattle	Jackson, Lawrence	DE
29	San Francisco	Balmer, Kentwan	DE
30	NY Jets	Keller, Dustin	TE
31	NY Giants	Phillips, Kenny	FS

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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Comments

First of all...good writeup.

I think Dallas did ok (other than passing on CJ2K) compared to most teams. That must have been a weak class cause I gotta ask, Who are the guys Mayock had ranked?

"Fear the Star" -A WISE Man!

by mho on Feb 21, 2012 10:40 PM CST via iPhone app reply actions

Dallas had 2 first rounds picks that year...

So they should have…

Dallas scouts suck.. All the players selected that was studs but dallas drafted scrubs like bennett and felix..

Could of had jamal charles and calias campbell

by lostar2009 on Feb 21, 2012 11:57 PM CST via mobile reply actions

YUP !!

Dallas scouts suck..

LMAO @ Brohm. Shoulda been Matt Flynn. Both drafted by the Packers and now look.

Drafting Felix was a huge dud. You don’t draft backups in the first round. Matt Forte , Ray Rice or Jammal Charles all better than Felix.

Campbell has 21 career sacks. Yikes. Could we ever use a de like that. He is the best de from that draft.

The 08 ot’s were pretty strong in the first 3. Clady and Long are studs.

Jets and Jags bombed with those two high first rounders.

No Jerry isn’t very good at ranking talent. Two decent drafts doesn’t absolve him of 8 bad drafts.

Jerry is the end all in Dallas.

by football mensa on Feb 22, 2012 8:01 AM CST reply actions

The Dallas front office tend to over value talent

but hopefully with Garrett things will go in a new direction. Looking back at the 2008 draft, it was just a weak draft class overall.

Hey Washington... D.C. stands for Dallas Cowboys

Jerry the GM…if we could only find a way to get rid of that guy…

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by Antonio S on Feb 22, 2012 8:38 AM CST reply actions

08 was the best running back draft ever imo. We got the worst of the lot.

Jerry is the end all in Dallas.

by football mensa on Feb 22, 2012 7:59 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

Totally agree...

There were at least two or three HOF-caliber RBs that came out of the ‘08 draft class. I can’t remember anything close, at ANY position, outside of the 1983 QB class. Unfortunately, we got the “change-of-pace” guy.

by revellyre on Feb 22, 2012 10:17 PM CST up reply actions

Felix, Jenkins, and Marty B

all went about where everyone expected. None were a “reach” pick. I’m ok with that. I just don’t want to see us reaching for guys like Quincy Carter a round or more higher than where they should go. That bothers me more than anything. All teams miss on picks, just don’t miss by taking a guy 30 spots higher than he should go.

"A successful coach needs a paitient wife, a loyal dog, and a great quarterback. But if you don't have a wife the dog can pull double duty." --Barry Switzer

by Tennessee_Jed on Feb 22, 2012 11:23 AM CST reply actions

that was a bad draft class

all the DEs are terrible except Calias and he’s a 5tech not an OLB/DE type

Only top 2 qbs have done anything

3 of the top 5 wrs panned out but #1 and #3 didn’t

Mendenhall has been good, he doesn’t have C Johnson listed,

I don’t recognize any of those OLBs; top 3 OTs was pretty accurate. That CB class, Aqib is involved in crime court drama, what ever happened to McKelvin?

It was a bad class for top of the draft defenders. Gholston is quite well known at this point. Is Jerry ok at evaluating talent, vs Mayock? Seems like it, at least Jerry’s picks are still in the NFL lol; who knows where Aqib or Gholston are

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by AustonianAggie on Feb 22, 2012 6:46 PM CST reply actions

Aqib is still a Buc . Still go look at the rb's.

CJ , Forte, Ray Rice. Stewart has had to do the time share thing.

Jerry is the end all in Dallas.

by football mensa on Feb 22, 2012 8:01 PM CST reply actions

Interesting stuff. Rec'd.

Gholston sure fooled a lot of people, didn’t he?

"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus

by FreedomRide on Feb 24, 2012 11:16 AM CST reply actions

Also, forgive me for homering it up a bit, but I think the Texans really nailed it in that 2008 1st round.

They traded back and took Duane Brown. For that they got extra picks and an OT who gave up either one or zero sacks in 2011, depending on who is counting.

Next year is his contract year, and he will be a monster FA problem for the Texans’ front office.

"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus

by FreedomRide on Feb 24, 2012 11:26 AM CST up reply actions