BTB's Super Bowl Predictions And Prop Bets
by KD Drummond on Feb 5, 2012 3:00 AM CST
in Trolling the Universe
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We are finally getting our blindfolds and final cigarettes for the 2011 NFL season Cowboys fans. Rejoice!
I figured it would be fun for us to get one last round of Pick'Em embarrassment for the road, so I coerced some of my fellow FPW's to take a stab at picking a winner for Super Bowl XLVI, the New York Giants vs. the New England Patriots. This has to be one of the worst matchups for Dallas fans, right? I can only think of a couple that would be worse; San Francisco vs. Pittsburgh, Washington vs. Pittsburgh, Philly vs. Pittsburgh... you catch my drift.
Here's the "Vegas" breakdown for the contest.
New York Giants vs New England Patriots (-3) O/U: 54.0
Both teams fared well straight up away from home. The Giants compiled a 7-3 record and the Pats a 6-2 record on the road. NYG maintained that record against the spread (ATS), but NE dropped to 5-3. On the road, against teams with winning records at the time of the game, NYG went 4-2 S/U, ATS and O/U (W: @NE, @DAL, @GB, @SF L: @SF, @NO). NE went 3-2 S/U, ATS and O/U against winning road teams (W: @OAK, @NYJ, @DEN L: @BUF, @PIT).
Follow the jump to see how Dave, O.C.C., Tom and myself see the game shaking out.
KD: Patriots 24 Giants 20
I think Brady's tired of the BS 'Giants are in his head' and comes out, lighting up the Giants weak secondary, specifically Antrel Rolle. The interception Eli threw that went through Asante's hands four years ago, actually gets picked by Kyle Arrington this time around, as the Giants try to rally late but fall short on the turnover. Manning face for everyone!
O.C.C. Patriots 30 Giants 23
1. Tom Brady
2. The Patriots have the better offensive line
3. The Giants had a +7 turnover ratio for the season, they are +5 in the playoffs (one turnover and six takeaways). That luck will not last.
Tom: Giants 24 Patriots 13
Not because they are such a superior team. Just my expectation that one team usually comes out flat or tight and things tend to get out of hand, and this is my guess on it. It could easily go the other way, but I do expect a double digit margin this year. Just like I said, I think one of the teams will not have that great a game.
Dave: Patriots 31 Giants 24
Tom Brady needs to get his revenge, and with the help of good pass protection and a short passing game, he'll get it. This offensive strategy neutralizes the Giants biggest strength, their pass rush. On defense the Pats do not let Eli Manning roll out to his right, limiting the damage from Nicks and Cruz. It will be a competitive game with Brady being the difference-maker.
Here's a look Bodog.com's Bovada.lv's prop bets I found interesting.
| Prop Bet | Favorite | Top Odds | Interesting Long Shot |
|---|---|---|---|
| MVP | Tom Brady(7/5) | Manning (9/4) Cruz (8/1) Nicks (12/1) | Jake Ballard (100/1) |
| 1st TD | Gronkowski (6/1) | Hernandez (7/1) BGE (15/2) Cruz (15/2) | DJ Ware (50/1) |
| Gatorade Shower Color | Clear/Water (3/2) | Orange (5/2) Yellow (5/2) | Blue (10/1) |
| Manning TDs | 2 (+225) | 3 (+250) 1 (+275) | 0 (+600) |
| Brady TDs | 4+ (+230) | 2 (+250) 3 (+250) | 0 (+750) |
| 1st Giants TD | Nicks (7/2) Cruz (7/2) | Bradshaw (9/2) Jacobs (6/1) | Bear Pascoe (22/1) |
| 1st Pats TD | Gronkowski (3/1) | Hernandez (4/1) Welker (4/1) | Edelman (20/1) |
| 1st Interception | Arrington (13/2) | McCourty (15/2) Ross (10/1) | Boley (18/1) |
| MVP 1st thanked | Teammates(5/4) | No one (5/2) God (4/1) | Coach (12/1) |
Over/Unders
| Over/Under Prop | Benchmark |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones Day After | 0 |
| Online Viewers | 1.5 million |
| Robert Kraft Sightings | 3.5 |
| Excessive Celebration Penalties | 0.5 |
| Peyton Manning sightings | 3.5 |
| Kelly Clarkson's anthem will take | 1 min 24 sec |
| Manning Passing Yards | 315.5 |
| Manning Longest Completion | 45.5 |
| Bradshaw Rush Attempts | 13.5 |
| Bradshaw Yds 1st Carry | 3.5 |
| Nicks Longest Catch | 26.5 |
| Cruz Longest Catch | 29.5 |
| Tynes Total Points | 7.5 |
| JPP Tackles & Assists | 5.5 |
| JPP sacks | 0.5 |
| Brady Passing Yards | 320.5 |
| Brady Longest Completion | 42.5 |
| BGE Total Rush Yards | 47.5 |
| Woodhead Rush Attempts | 5.5 |
| Woodhead Catch Yards | 12.5 |
| Welker Catch Yards | 82.5 |
| Gostkowski Total Points | 8.5 |
| Mayo Tackles & Assists | 7.5 |
| Mark Anderson Sacks | 0.5 |
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Comments
Personally I think this is perhaps the worst SB match-up in history
You have two teams that spent the better part of the season proving that they were mediocre. A team with NE’s defense in the Super Bowl? Lombardi is rolling over in his grave. A team with Eli as it’s strength? Please!
My prediction follows the above guys, I see Brady taking charge early and often. I might even end up laying money on this game. JPP is not enough to keep the Giants in it. Nor should he have been when the Cowboys faced them at year’s end.
JMHO
Mmmm ... draft season ... a time for optimists :)
Then again...
… the most fitting SB match-up in history for an altogether mediocre, corporately self-hyped BS season from Suckitude to BS SB. Hopefully forgettable, to boot.
Mmmm … draft season … a time for optimists another
To the Trinity.
Game, Team and Fans.
Here’s to ya, ladies and gentlemen (term used loosely, guys). Thanks for the season. Savour the day, the game, ’cuz this is…
That's one small step...
I just wanted to say!
I have hated the last few SB attendees! Ok on to more important matters. I commented that the iPod/iPhone app needs a rec button. It seems that if you type it out the system registers it. I found this out by typing it on a new fan post that had not been recommended. Just thought I’d share the info!
"Fear the Star" -A WISE Man!
by mho on Feb 5, 2012 4:11 AM CST via iPhone app reply actions
KD you forgot one.....
How many times will Dallas fans say “Eli is so lucky , that should have been intercepted” I say 12………….because that’s what Dallas fans do when Eli plays
Jerry is the end all in Dallas.
Youre complaining about Cowboys fans complaining?
by BrickTop on Feb 5, 2012 9:18 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
no he's just complaining,
that’s what he does……….
Continuous effort - not strength or intelligence - is the key to unlocking our potential.
Winston Churchill
We Fight On !!,That's The Cowboys Way !!.
Go Cowboys!!
by scotscowboyfan on Feb 5, 2012 10:00 AM CST up reply actions
Actually I find humor in the fact that Dallas fans don't want to give Eli credit.
I don’t know why that’s so hard to do. He has played well this season and he has been very good in the playoffs. You should never let emotion cloud your opinion. It’s a team game and he is part of that team. He plays the most important position on the team and he has delivered up to this point.
Jerry is the end all in Dallas.
by football mensa on Feb 5, 2012 10:54 AM CST up reply actions
So fiverings would you admit Tom Brady is a great qb ? What about
Peyton Manning or Drew Brees ? All of those qb’s are better than Eli. Does that mean I should become a fan of their teams too ?
Retorting with the troll post shows your inability to use rationale.
Thanx for playing.
Jerry is the end all in Dallas.
by football mensa on Feb 5, 2012 11:47 AM CST up reply actions
Well
I don’t take anything away from Eli even though I can’t stand him. He is a very good QB and has played excellent this year. Especially against us. But, there are times when he does get a little lucky with dropped interceptions, and his receivers making some pretty unbelievable catches.
by BrickTop on Feb 5, 2012 11:38 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Brick all qb's have int's dropped. It's part of the game.
I think people are pissed because the Gmen are playing today and Dallas isn’t that giving Eli credit seems blasphemous. I don’t see it like that at all. The guy has played well and delivered.
Jerry is the end all in Dallas.
by football mensa on Feb 5, 2012 11:49 AM CST up reply actions
Again, join the NY board ,Giant fan, Eli is very good , but also very lucky
as is his team, just about every would be/ should be pic seems to get dropped, every fumble , they seem to recover…time for the luck to run out today.
Why , because my opinion is different than yours ?
Again, join the NY board
snoooooze
Jerry is the end all in Dallas.
by football mensa on Feb 5, 2012 12:27 PM CST up reply actions
Hey fiverings I guess Eli was lucky on that throw to Manningham huh ?
LOL. Eli was money. There is no denying it. He stepped up huge . As did the d.
Jerry is the end all in Dallas.
by football mensa on Feb 5, 2012 10:46 PM CST up reply actions
I'm just pulling for the Giants so I can finish up 7-0 in KD's contest.
Giants 27-Patriots 17. Nicks is MVP. Tails is the result on the coin toss, Clarkson sings one of the best anthems ever, Bradshaw will throw a TD pass tying him and Terry with the Manning Bros as the only players with same last names to throw a TD pass, Morganna will revive her career as the kissing bandit running onto the field and kissing referee John Parry, 139,402 hot dogs will be sold, & there will be at least one onside kick, player with illegal uniform code, & more shots of Peyton Manning than Eli Manning. Oh yeah…Madonna will be joined on stage at the halftime show by Nicki Minaj where they will lip lock and then body surf through the entire stadium. Enjoy the game.
"If you are prepared, you will be confident, and will do the job." Tom Landry
"The difference between extraordinary and ordinary, is that little extra". Jimmy Johnson
I'd root for you, but that comes with the Giants winning, so I just can't :)
| Blogging The Boys | SBNation Dallas | Producer/CoHost Flood The Block Radio, TUE 7p RockTheFlow.com |
Follow @KDP10For10 Follow@BloggingTheBoys
Thanks. I certainly don't usually root for the Giants,
but when it comes to making picks, I tend to go with my head instead of my heart.
"If you are prepared, you will be confident, and will do the job." Tom Landry
"The difference between extraordinary and ordinary, is that little extra". Jimmy Johnson
I've made other comments other places,
and I sent you an email.
CONGRATULATIONS on a perfect 7-for-7 in KD’s Playoff Contest.
That is an incredible accomplishment – picking all seven winners (four division, two conference championship, and one Super Bowl) – all in advance of the first division game beginning.
No one else got more than four right.
(Hands over crown)... Dude seriously you are the most optimistic Fan in the world……
--by I am Ironman!!! on Dec 17, 2011 4:55 AM CST
Giants/Patriots...uhg
Can both teams lose?
Pats 34
Giants 24
We have the goal of winning Super Bowls. If you don't have that, find the door.
Jason Garrett
Perhaps we could contain the collateral damage.
Instead of a comet we could use a greyhound bus.
No?
How about a blind lady in a Pinto?
[Arms crossed, staring.]
Would you believe a mean little kid with a pop-gun?
We have the goal of winning Super Bowls. If you don't have that, find the door.
Jason Garrett
You ever get the impression that Cowboys Stadium is cursed?
That cart had radar better than any seeing-eyed grounder I’ve ever witnessed. It seemed to turn just to get everyone in the crowd. Hate to bring this out, but is there a Curse of Jerry? What’s scary is how many links I could have put up. Maybe Jerry shouldn’t have prayed in ’95.
We have the goal of winning Super Bowls. If you don't have that, find the door.
Jason Garrett
Wonder if one of the local BtB brothers/sisters could...
… confirm or deny the tale of it being built on old-time sacred Native burial ground?
As you may recall Jerry’s out’s been given to his hubristic praying (preying?).
That's one small step...
Oh crap!
We’re going to need a hundred years to break the Curse of the Jerbino. Oh, wait!
Jeruh IS a hundred years old.
We have the goal of winning Super Bowls. If you don't have that, find the door.
Jason Garrett
It's in the land's history...
…meaning one need go back before the time of the forked tongues.
But thanks for taking that first step.
That's one small step...
lol
LIttle Big Man. “You just go down there!”
We have the goal of winning Super Bowls. If you don't have that, find the door.
Jason Garrett
Musta seemed near every Souix warrior in creation rose up to meet 'em
Outstanding flick.
Funny, our redcoats never had problem with that band, even seriously outnumbered. All in the way ya handle a situation and a man.
Gotta watch that movie again sometime> Good one, bud. Thanks for the recollect.
That's one small step...
Netflix is bringing back a bunch of good stuff for me.
Watch Netflix as much as I do cable.
We have the goal of winning Super Bowls. If you don't have that, find the door.
Jason Garrett
Don't worry, 99.
I’ve got a secret weapon.
We have the goal of winning Super Bowls. If you don't have that, find the door.
Jason Garrett
OCC, quick correction on your prediction...
Giants were +7 in turnover ratio during the regular season, not -7.
"We will not be denied." - Antrel Rolle
by BigBlueIntervention on Feb 5, 2012 8:33 AM CST reply actions
wow
over half a sack for JPP is a prop bet I am salivating over
"With the 14th pick in the 2012 NFL Draft.........The Dallas Cowboys select..............Melvin Ingram DE South Carolina"
My card has been sent in
Giants 30 Patriots 24
"With the 14th pick in the 2012 NFL Draft.........The Dallas Cowboys select..............Melvin Ingram DE South Carolina"
My card has been sent in
Ill be watching the Polar Bowl
Where are my prop bets for that!
"Obviously, I felt like if I ran into my lineman there it was going to help the play" ~Tony Romo
Take the under!
And to Hell with the Giants!!
by fiverings37 on Feb 5, 2012 8:49 AM CST via Android app reply actions
what are the odds on the meteor making an appearence?
We're here to win football games. The way to do that is to tell him and to get on him at the right times. I do that when you guys (media) don't see and watch.''
What else makes a strong leader?
"You win,'' Romo said. "You're a very good leader once you win.
"That's' what we're going to do.''
I can't find any online site giving those odds
and you KNOW that’s one thing I’d throw money away for… just hoping to influence.
| Blogging The Boys | SBNation Dallas | Producer/CoHost Flood The Block Radio, TUE 7p RockTheFlow.com |
Follow @KDP10For10 Follow@BloggingTheBoys
lemme see ... (fumbling for my fuel-injected HP 29c) ...
There are about 3,000 Earth Crossing asteroids (i.e., asteroids whose orbits intersect
Earth’s) and about 500 are bigger than 150 m and maybe 30 bigger than a few km in
size.
(punch punch ENTER punch punch punch punch ENTER)
The rough numbers are about one strike every 500,000 years. We had a close call
in 1908 (Tunguska – apparently a high altitude airburst of a low density asteroid) and XM1
came within 1/4 of the Earth-Moon distance from hitting us in 1994. So you could
argue we’re due.
(punch ENTER punch punch punch ENTER)
But a large asteroid impacting Indianapolis today at 6:30 to 9:30 p.m. EST?
(punch punch punch ENTER)
Well, the odds are astronomical …
"You knew the job was dangerous when you took it, Fred." - Henry Cabot Henhaus III
by Superchicken on Feb 5, 2012 1:27 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
If Pats win, Gronk gets MVP award. If Giants win, JPP gets MVP award.
But I’ll give the thumbs up to Pats. 35-31
my forecast is,
Giants 27-24.
Continuous effort - not strength or intelligence - is the key to unlocking our potential.
Winston Churchill
We Fight On !!,That's The Cowboys Way !!.
Go Cowboys!!
Over/Under on how many times I think today what could have been.......8
We were 0-3 against these two teams during the regular season. However, with just a few minor breaks or just a little bit better defensive play, we could and should have been 2-1. And if we were 2-1 against these two teams what could that have meant…….The playoffs…..A playoff win…..A conference win…..A Superbowl appearance….A Superbowl win!
I reserve the right to have one last day to think what could have been and then I’ll move on to the draft.
It'll be alright.
We were close to them, and now we have better draft position than them. AS any racing enthusiast will tell you, drafting is how you get ahead.
My most recent fanpost:
The Weekly Chessmatch: Cowboys @ Eagles
by CotySaxman on Feb 5, 2012 11:20 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
lol
well played, sir
| Blogging The Boys | SBNation Dallas | Producer/CoHost Flood The Block Radio, TUE 7p RockTheFlow.com |
Follow @KDP10For10 Follow@BloggingTheBoys
We were 8-8, we weren't ready
If we restock with a great draft and sign the right free agents (Chris Myers!) we’ll be ready for a strong 2012… as long as we don’t ice our own kickers.
by Blue Eyed Devil on Feb 5, 2012 1:54 PM CST up reply actions
As...
… any racing beer enthusiast will tell you, drafting is how you get ahead a head.
That's one small step...
draughting for non-offense/defense English-speaking folk, who know the difference between offence and defence, though it be offensive in and to both.
That's one small step...
Can you close the window?
There’s a draught in here.
My most recent fanpost:
The Weekly Chessmatch: Cowboys @ Eagles
by CotySaxman on Feb 5, 2012 11:02 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Take heart, Cowboys fans.
When you wake up tomorrow, the Eagles will still have 0 Lombardi trophies.
And give me the Pats, 27-17.
"If something is a sure thing, it requires no faith." - David Allen
by KeyOfZ on Feb 5, 2012 12:02 PM CST via mobile reply actions 3 recs
26-23 Pats
Baby Vince MVP will return an interception for a Td and get a safety to win the game to honor the great late Mira Kraft.
by letsgtld on Feb 5, 2012 12:05 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Giants 34-20
Gronk being hurt is huge. Read where he wouldnt be playing if this is regular season.
by CowboyzRule on Feb 5, 2012 3:26 PM CST via mobile reply actions
neither would of TO
and we saw how that turned out.
"Obviously, I felt like if I ran into my lineman there it was going to help the play" ~Tony Romo
True
But Gronk will have to stay in and block some too with that bad ankle. TO didn’t have to worry much about that.
by CowboyzRule on Feb 5, 2012 3:36 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Witten actually said blocking wouldn't be a problem.
His job will be more to just get in the way then try to stand anyone up.
"Obviously, I felt like if I ran into my lineman there it was going to help the play" ~Tony Romo
I guess he would know :-)
I’m sure there will be plenty of (over) analysis on it during the game.
by CowboyzRule on Feb 5, 2012 3:44 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Yeah the only part of Superbowl coverage I saw was Witten was talking.
I guess he got tired of waiting to go with his team, so he’s in Indy this week.
"Obviously, I felt like if I ran into my lineman there it was going to help the play" ~Tony Romo
Gronk
Was a non factor. Limited their weapons to Hernandez and Welker.
by CowboyzRule on Feb 5, 2012 9:51 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
The Pats have big lines, if I remember correctly.
But, Giants put together four quarters of strong line play.
This has strong potential to be the first OT SB, which I said about Titans-Rams…
What is the star now? A fallen piece of hardened plastic? The heaviest franchise in American sport? A false idol adored by many millions? The epitome of all that can be achieved with hard work? All that can be lost with too strong a sense of entitlement? A welcome coping mechanism, distracting from the real negativity on Earth? A bonding and separating agent?
by BlueNSilverBlood on Feb 5, 2012 4:46 PM CST reply actions
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