My post below evaluated what I thought should be the Cowboys priorities going into free agency. Here's an update on developments since then. So far, the Cowboys have met some of their needs, but they have left a gaping hole in the middle of the offensive line, and if it's not addressed, the team isn't going to get where it wants to.
Here's their moves so far, and where they fit on my priority scale.
- Priority #2, pass rush. I think the franchise tag on Anthony Spencer was critical. The guy is great against the run, makes tackles, forces fumbles, and gets to the QB a respectable amount. Beefing up the D-line interior is another way to bolster the pass rush, which the Cowboys might be able to do yet in free agency or the draft.
- Priority #3, secondary. I appreciate the signing of Brandon Carr, who's the right CB of those on the market, for reasons Bob Sturm laid out in his blog. Still need to sign a safety.
- Priority #4, other offensive pieces. Lawrence Vickers is bigger and more durable than Tony Fiammetta and thus an upgrade at FB, which is important to our running game.
- Priority #4, other offensive pieces. Kyle Orton fills another critical need. He was my second choice for backup QB -- I liked Rex Grossman more for reasons spelled out below, but Orton is younger and might still improve. Cowboys should try to trade Steven McGee for a draft pick.
- Priority #4, other offensive pieces. If the Cowboys land Kellen Davis, this will cover the loss of Martellus Bennett to NY, where I think he's going to hurt us, BTW. (Romo never saw Bennett with Witten on the field. Freed up, Bennett is going to surprise a lot of doubters. He won't catch a lot of balls, but he's an upgrade for the Giants and will hurt teams.) Still, I think Davis will do better here than Bennett would because Romo doesn't have a blind spot for him, so perhaps a very small upgrade if he signs.
- Priority #5, interior linebacking. If they land Dan Connor, this will fill the interior LB hole. There are mixed reviews on him, but I would consider this a real plus signing if it gets done.
- What's the obvious problem here? The Cowboys have yet to address what should have been Priority #1 -- interior offensive line. Let's be frank: the Cowboys need 3 new starters on the inside, and they can't expect to get more than one of them in the draft -- David DeCastro. We should not be satisfied with the MacKenzy Bernadeau signing. A backup guard from Carolina isn't going to cut it. I don't mind this deal if Bernadeau remains a backup. He may well be better than Nagy, Arkin, and Kosier, and if this means we can cut Kosier, who is too old and injury prone to be reliable anymore, then it's a small plus. But this isn't good enough to turn this critical unit into a strength of the team, which it was the last time we went to the Super Bowl, or even the last time we finished at the top of the NFC (13-3 in 2007 when we had Flo, Kosier, Gurode, Bigg, and Columbo.) The Cowboys need Pro Bowlers on the offensive line, or we are wasting the talents of Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Jason Witten, DeMarco Murray, and Felix Jones. A weak line isn't going to be able to compete in the NFC East, or in a year when we have to play Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cincy, plus the NFC South.
Aside from fixing the offensive line, the Cowboys still have other needs.
- Is Laurent Robinson gone? He would be foolish to sign with Jacksonville, with no QB to throw to him. But I can't blame him for going elsewhere if someone waves a big signing bonus in front of him. I hope he gives us the chance to come close to matching any deal, but at this point I'd rather put our money in the offensive line. We'll have to find a #3 receiver somewhere else, as the only guy on our roster who might fit the role is Radway, who was hurt last year. With Austin's perennial hamstring issues, and the value of using Bryant for other things, like punt return, third WR is pretty important. Mario Manningham anyone?
- How are we going to upgrade the pass rush? (Priority #2?) We can't draft both Cox out of Mississippi State and David DeCastro. I think DeCastro is the bigger need, esp. since we haven't really addressed the O-line yet, but the quality pass rush guys will mostly be gone after the first round. We've got to fix one or the other in free agency.
- Who's going to sign at safety? Word is that Brodney Pool is visiting. I don't know enough to evaluate whether he's much of an upgrade over Elam. He seems to get his hands on more balls, but played in only 561 plays last year, to Elam's 1024. This sounds like a push.
- Who's our punter going to be? If we have the money, I expect McBriar will be back.
- We will also need a 3rd RB, but this can be filled through the draft.
So, overall, I'd give the Cowboys credit for a decent start. Everyone they have signed is in their 20s. They've landed a primo free agent CB, and kept Anthony Spencer so their pass rush shouldn't be any worse off. They've filled holes at FB and backup QB. They've brought in logical solutions for TE, ILB, and Safety. (Let's hope they sign them or find better options to fill those holes.) They added some young but experienced depth for the O-line, which might allow them to let Kosier go.
But the overall answer to my post question has to be that, until they start really upgrading their offensive line, the team is just treading water. Without an offensive line, and especially if they lose Robinson, the Cowboys will not have the offense to compete with the high-scoring teams like New Orleans, Green Bay, and even the Giants and Philly. The Cowboys aren't going to win games with a dominant defense. They are going to need to protect Romo and open running lanes for Murray/Jones if they want to get to the playoffs and win. Carl Nicks may have been outside our salary cap range, esp. with the BS penalty the other owners imposed, but then we need to spend our money to upgrade the cheaper Center position, draft DeCastro, and find someone better than Nagy/Arkin/Bernadeau for the other guard slot. If we don't see 3 new starters on the O-line this year, it could be another disappointing season.
*************** Here's my prior post. Priorties, Priorities, Priorities.
There is a lot the Cowboys need to do this offseason to be contenders next year. We have holes in the interior of the offensive line, a pass rush that is not good enough to threaten Eli Manning or other passers who can carve up our defense, and serious weaknesses in the secondary. We also have other issues: interior linebacking, third wide receiver, backup QB, third tight end, fullback, and punter. How do you go about filling all these holes?
The first thing you need to do is prioritize.
To decide how to prioritize, I think you have to look back and see why the Cowboys lost 8 games this year, and barely won several others. Here's the schedule, with a quick estimate whether it was the offense or the defense, or something else that cost us the game.
LOOKING BACK AT 2011 -- Was Offense or Defense the primary culprit in our 8 losses?
Game 1, lost 24-27 @ NY Jets - late turnovers (including blocked punt). Better offense closes this game out.
Game 2, won 27-24 @ San Francisco in OT
Game 3, won 18-16 over Washington - better offense makes this an easier win.
Game 4, lost 30-34 to Detroit - turnovers cost us. Offense looked great in first half, disappeared in second half.
Game 5, lost 16-20 @ New England - better offense wins this game by getting into the end zone or getting a late first down. Don't focus on failed last minute stop.
Game 6, won 34-7 over St. Louis. Easy game.
Game 7, lost 7-34 @ Philadelphia. Defense was shredded. Offense couldn't stay with Eagles.
Game 8, won 23-13 over Seattle. Offense should have put the game away earlier. Missed goal line opptys.
Game 9, won 44-7 over Buffalo. Easiest game of the year.
Game 10, won 27-24 @ Washington. Offense should have put this one away earlier. Defense couldn't stop Rex.
Game 11, won 20-19 over Miami. Offense was outplayed by Miami.
Game 12, lost 13-19 @ Arizona. Offense could have put this away before last second missed FG. Romo sacked too many times.
Game 13, lost 34-37 to Giants. Put this on both the offense and defense. Offense couldn't do anything at the end, allowing the Giants the possessions they needed to take the lead; defense couldn't stop them. Still, a blocked field goal was the difference at the end.
Game 14, won 31-15 @ Tampa Bay. Offense did great in first half, nothing in second half.
Game 15, lost 7-20 against Philly. Game meant nothing and Romo sat after hurting hand. Offense had no chance after that.
Game 16, lost 14-31 @ NY Giants. Romo sacked heavily again. Offense couldn't keep up.
Why do I go through this exercise? Because it's my view that weaknesses in the Cowboys offense, more than its defense, was the reason we lost games. In the 8 losses, better offense wins the Jets, Detroit, NE and Arizona games. In the two games against the Giants, better offense or defense could have won the first game, and better offense might have made the second competitive. Nothing would have mattered in the first or second Philly games. First was a blowout, and second was of no consequence.
So, if I am priortizing to improve the Cowboys in 2012, where am I looking first? On the offensive side. And specifically on the offensive line.
PRIORITY #1 -- Offensive line
If the Cowboys do nothing else this offseason, what I would like to see them do is develop a dominant offensive line. A great line would give Romo more time to throw, and it would open running lanes more consistently for Murray and Jones. The line is needed to allow the skill players to maximize their potential. A better Oline wins the Jets game by allowing us to control more 4th quarter clock and finish the win. Same thing for the Lionsgame. When we needed one first down against NE, a better line could have gotten it for us, or put the ball into the end zone instead of settling for FGs. Same thing at the end of the first Giants game. Same for Arizona. A better line would also have made the two Washington and Miami wins much easier.
How do we get a dominant offensive line? First off, we need to keep getting younger. Montrae Holland fought gamely, but got injured at the end of the year. Derrick Dockery played one game and got hurt. Kyle Kosier had a bad foot all year, and missed time in recent years with foot injuries. None of these guys could stop rushers in December, when Tony Romo got killed.
My highest priority would be to sign Carl Nicks to whatever contract is needed to get him. He's a big, mid-20s guy who could be expected to perform for 5 years at a top level. I'd say he'd be worth every penny needed to sign him.