FanPost

Composite Mock - Who Will be Available at 14?

The mock drafts are coming out a fast furious pace, and other than an across the board agreement that Luck will be the first person chosen, there is not a lot of consensus from number 2 on down. In the table below, I am trying to use the wisdom of the masses to get a rough approximation of the probability that certain players will be available to Dallas at pick 14. Obviously, this will be an evolving assessment as we go through free agency, player pro days, team invites, etc., so if there is interest I will try to update this chart and re-publish every so often.

A note on the methodology - I took the CBS Big Board ranking of players to create an initial table and then added the selections of 13 different mockers in subsequent columns. I then filtered out any player that was not selected in at least 5 of the 13 mock drafts. To create an average draft position (ADP), I just took an average across all the mocks, but assigned a value of 35 if the player did not show up for any of the mock drafters. The table is sorted by this ADP. Finally, I added a column to focus this on the 14th pick - i.e., what percentage of the mocks had the player available at pick 14.

See the results after the jump...

COMPOSITE MOCK V1.0
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Player Pos School CBS BB 2/29 2/29 2/29 2/29 2/15 2/22 2/27 2/27 2/28 3/1 2/22 3/1 2/29 ADP % at 14
Andrew Luck QB Stanford 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.0 0.0%
Matt Kalil OT Southern California 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 2.6 0.0%
Robert Griffin III QB Baylor 2 2 2 2 2 4 3 2 4 4 2 2 4 4 2.8 0.0%
Morris Claiborne CB LSU 4 5 6 5 5 6 5 5 3 5 4 6 5 3 4.8 0.0%
Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State 5 6 4 4 4 2 10 6 7 6 6 4 3 6 5.2 0.0%
Trent Richardson RB Alabama 6 4 5 11 11 5 4 4 5 12 5 5 17 17 8.1 15.4%
Quinton Coples DE North Carolina 8 9 9 6 10 7 6 7 12 7 7 10 16 8 8.8 7.7%
Riley Reiff OT Iowa 7 11 8 8 8 9 12 8 8 3 11 9 7 10.5 7.7%
Melvin Ingram OLB South Carolina 9 7 7 7 7 12 7 18 16 8 12 16 10 16 11.0 30.8%
Michael Brockers DT LSU 10 22 27 9 26 8 8 9 9 9 16 8 11 9 13.2 30.8%
Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama 18 14 14 14 14 17 16 14 14 14 14 7 20 5 13.6 84.6%
Courtney Upshaw OLB Alabama 21 10 16 29 16 10 11 10 10 10 10 13 24 10 13.8 30.8%
Jonathan Martin OT Stanford 16 18 10 24 13 13 21 11 11 11 8 11 13 19 14.1 30.8%
David DeCastro OG Stanford 12 17 11 16 17 21 14 17 13 13 13 17 8 11 14.5 53.8%
Luke Kuechly ILB Boston College 14 12 12 15 15 11 9 15 15 15 15 15 25 14 14.5 69.2%
Michael Floyd WR Notre Dame 13 19 19 19 19 18 26 12 22 22 18 19 7 15 18.1 84.6%
Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M 11 8 12 6 18 22 6 25 22 12 6 18.6 53.8%
Cordy Glenn OG Georgia 23 23 18 13 18 16 20 19 32 24 19 22 15 23 20.2 92.3%
Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama 15 17 21 23 15 23 17 17 17 21 14 21 21.2 100.0%
Dontari Poe DT Memphis 22 15 15 18 9 24 25 21 24 20 9 26 21.2 84.6%
Kendall Wright WR Baylor 19 26 26 22 23 13 19 16 27 18 19 22 23.2 92.3%
Devon Still DT Penn State 17 27 22 21 25 24 25 20 26 9 24 12 23.5 84.6%
Mike Adams OT Ohio State 33 13 23 23 19 19 32 23 23 23 29 13 23.8 84.6%
Mark Barron SS Alabama 31 16 31 29 14 13 16 21 21 29 24 24.5 92.3%
Whitney Mercilus DE Illinois 26 13 20 20 27 20 20 27 20 27 32 25.5 92.3%
Fletcher Cox DT Mississippi State 20 20 25 28 22 15 17 27 28 28 27 25 25.5 100.0%
Nick Perry DE Southern California 25 28 23 10 28 32 31 18 20 25 23 27 25.8 92.3%
Peter Konz C Wisconsin 28 31 29 26 20 29 29 29 29 29 28 18 20 27.1 100.0%
Jerel Worthy DT Michigan State 27 29 25 25 26 22 24 25 29.7 100.0%
Zach Brown OLB North Carolina 34 24 22 17 12 31 29.7 92.3%
Andre Branch DE Clemson 35 28 27 29 19 12 30.4 92.3%
Coby Fleener TE Stanford 51 25 32 30 32 24 32 22 31.3 100.0%
Rueben Randle WR LSU 24 30 26 26 30 26 26 31.5 100.0%
Dont'a Hightower ILB Alabama 29 24 32 32 31 18 32.1 100.0%
Brandon Thompson DT Clemson 44 30 32 31 28 28 33.0 100.0%
Dwayne Allen TE Clemson 36 32 32 25 32 30 33.2 100.0

I highlighted a few players that are often discussed on this board (although at this point many of these players get talked about). My favorite, David DeCastro, is available at 14 in just over half of the mock drafts. Dre Kirkpatrick, the player most often assigned by this set of mockers, is available in 84%. Melvin Ingram, who I would have thought was completely our of reach, shows up as available 31% of the time.

Feel free to make suggestions on how to improve this table. Formatting it to fit within the SB Nation limits was a bit of a challenge, so thanks to OCC for some help there.

Mocks used:

Albert Breer, nfl.com
Bucky Brooks, nfl.com
Chad Reuter, nfl.com
Steve Wyche, nfl.com
Mel Kiper, ESPN
Todd McShay, ESPN
Rob Rang, CBS Sports
Dane Brugler, CBS Sports
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports
Peter Schrager, Fox Sports
Don Banks, Sports Illustrated
Russ Lande, Sporting News
Consensus Draft, Draftttek.com

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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