FanShot

Navigating The Busts - Getting On Base

It's that time again, where I post a Bill Barnwell article for discussion for the statistically inclined. The premise of this article, one I tend to agree with, is that the most important thing in building a football team is avoiding busts. If you hit a double (instead of a HR) in the first round, your team will suffer less than if you strike out. In other words, in the early rounds, it's more important to get on base than to strike out. I love mixing my sports metaphors. In any case, as far as it pertain to the Cowboys' early round choices, I wanted to note a few things: - OL, LB, and DB are all among the top half of Barnwell's 'safest positions' in the first two rounds of the draft. - OL in Rd. 2 produce relatively well compared to their Rd. 1 counterparts, but fall off a cliff in Rd. 3. DBs follow a similar pattern. -DL and LB have steeper declines after Rd 1, but fairly flat curves from Rd's 2 to 4. In other words, if you miss on one in Rd 1, it might be a better value to wait until about Rd 4 instead of panicking in Rd 2. Read the article and draw some of your own conclusions for how this could be used to draw up an optimal draft strategy for Dallas this weekend.

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