FanPost

2nd Year Success Rate for 2nd Round Backers, Good News for Carter

The bust rate for first round picks at any position is very high. Every team drafting in the first round is looking for a multi-ProBowl player who eventually becomes one of the very best at their position in the league. That almost never happens. The grooming rate for a first round pick is about four years so I'll use the 2008 class as an example. Of the 31 players drafted in the first round of that year, only eight have made the ProBowl and a lot of other players have left much to be desired.

I'd imagine that the success rate goes down even further in the second round. Linebacker Bruce Carter was taken with the eighth pick of the second round last year, which would make him a second year, second round pick linebacker, which would put him in some pretty good company. Actually it's more like GREAT company.

More stuff after the jump...

Alright, so in my infinite free time, I like to look up NFL trends to validate any assumptions that I may have. I've liked Bruce Carter since he was drafted and he seems to be the talk of the town right now, so I decided to take a look into how successful second round pick linebackers (excluding 3-4 outside backers) were in their second NFL season. The numbers are really remarkable.

The chart below consists of every single non-rush linebacker taken in the second round since 2006 that has had the opportunity to play in a second season.

Second Round Backers, Tackles in Year 2

Drft Yr

Pick

Player

2nd Yr Tackles

1

2010

63

Pat Angerer (IND)

148

2

2009

35

James Laurinaitis (STL)

142

3

2008

37

Curtis Lofton (ATL)

133

4

2006

33

Demeco Ryans (HOU)

128

5

2006

34

D’Qwell Jackson (CLE)

115*

6

2010

47

Daryl Washington (ARI)

114*

7

2010

55

Sean Lee (DAL)

112*

8

2007

34

Paul Posluszny (BUF)

110

9

2007

47

David Harris (NYJ)

109*

10

2006

35

Rocky McIntosh (WAS)

99*

11

2006

38

Thomas Howard (OAK)

95

12

2010

62

Brandon Spikes (NE)

94*

13

2007

48

Justin Durrant (JAX)

80*

14

2008

45

Jordon Dizon (DET)

29

15

2009

45

Clint Sintim (NYG)

16*

*Player Missed at least one game and the tackles were projected over 16

Let me start with a few notes:

  • Daryl Washington also ended with a remarkable 5 sacks
  • Sean Lee was knocked out in week 8 without making a tackle so if you took that out his projected number would be 120
  • Pat Angerer was the lowest drafted player and ended up with the most tackles.
  • Jordon Dizon was going through a system change in his second year.
  • Clint Sintim has really struggled with injuries.
  • Thomas Howard added 11 pass deflections, 6 picks, and 2 touchdowns, which is astonishing.
  • I counted nine guys who could be in the discussion for top 20 non-rush linebackers

Alright, so 15 non-rush linebackers have been taken in round two since 2006. Of the 15, 13 had at least 80 tackles projected over 16 games. That's an 87% percent success rate. THAT IS UNREAL. I didn't take the time to figure out the first round backer percentage but when I think of players like Bobby Carpenter and Aaron Curry, I'd imagine that it wouldn't be as high.

I meant to put this in the table but if you figure the numbers, the average second round backer should have 102 tackles in his second season. If you take out Dizon and Sintim, that number shoots up to 114.

Looking across the list I really don't see a player who has the raw, physical talent of Bruce Carter. The 13th of 15 players on the list had 80 tackles. No one would be too upset if Sean Lee ended up with around 120 tackles, Bruce Carter with 80, and a Dan Connor with somewhere in the 35-45 range, especially if Bruce ends up with 3 or 4 sacks.

Basically the point that I'm trying to make is that the odds are ever in Bruce Carter's favor.

By the way, I made Bruce Carter highlights when he was drafted last year but my Youtube account was deleted. I think I have them saved in my other computer so I'll probably upload them again soon.

Comment and recommend if you enjoyed the read.

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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