KD's 10-for-10 - 2012 Week #3 Update

Last week, I opened with "I am stunned!" Even more so this week.

Fresh off an 8-8 consensus (the majority of us picked eight games right and eight games wrong), we went 8-8 again. But, this one was different. Last week's 8-8 had 197 full participants. Adding everyone's individual scores together, we had 1029 right and 944 wrong. Our "wins" were slightly more lopsided than our "losses".

This week was probably our worst score as a group since I have been keeping score for KD each week. This week's 8-8 record came with only 176 full participants. Adding the individual scores together this week, we were 753 right and 1009 wrong.

I have used the term "trap game" in these FanPosts to describe a game that we considered a lock - all or most of us included that game as one of our ten, and we all picked one team as a "can't miss" easy win. Then, that team proceeded to lose. All it takes is one of those in a week to wipe out everyone's 10-for-10 aspirations.

We had SIX of those this week - at least 100 made a pick in each game; over 80% chose the "sure winner"; all six of those favorites lost.

There are no 10-for-10s this week, not even close. The most anyone got right was 7, and only four were able to do that.

We also have a new overall leader. Read much, much more after the jump.

I made a comment on KD's contest page that I couldn't remember if we had ever unanimously missed a game before the way we did with San Francisco at Minnesota. 170 of us included this game in our 10-for-10, and every single one of us picked SF.

I looked it up. It's not the first time. It actually happened ten times just last year. Think "Ravens". They did it three times. After knocking off the Steelers last year on the first weekend, we thought of them as an invincible juggernaut until they went to Nashville and lost to the Titans. Then came a Monday night game at Jacksonville; what a laugher. Finally, they played at Seattle. Sound familiar? Lots of good teams have a hard time winning in Seattle. But, in every one of KD's weekly contests, we were unanimous in picking Baltimore.

Also in the top six of Unanimous Fails would be last year's Saints-Rams and Packers-Chiefs games. I made a new table to show all our Unanimous Fails (well, last year and this year; I do not have KD's files from 2010).

Worst Unanimous 10-for-10 Losses
Week Picks Loser Winner
2012-03 170 San Francisco Minnesota
2011-02 79 Baltimore Tennessee
2011-08 77 New Orleans St. Louis
2011-10 75 Baltimore Seattle
2011-07 70 Baltimore Jacksonville
2011-15 64 Green Bay Kansas City
2011-04 61 Buffalo Cincinnati
2011-01 60 Cleveland Cincinnati
2011-03 51 Arizona Seattle
2011-13 50 Chicago Kansas City
2011-14 23 Philadelphia Miami

Each week, we have added new players, and we have also lost some (either forgot to get them in, or dropped out). Here's our participation summary:

Week This Week MIA Total
1 222 0 222
2 199 44 243
3 177 69 246

Again, we won some, and we lost some this week. However, this week our losses were much worse. These numbers are how many of us picked each team to win each game. There were 177 participants this week; 176 full participants who picked ten games. We also had one this week who made a Thursday Game Only pick and didn't get back for the other nine. That has happened every week so far.

Here's how we did on each game this week:

Week #3 Results (Home in CAPS)
Win Winners (we're great) Lose
174 DALLAS Tampa Bay 2
127 CHICAGO St. Louis 7
85 New York Jets MIAMI 10
73 Buffalo CLEVELAND 12
63 Houston DENVER 22
54 BALTIMORE New England 12
47 ARIZONA Philadelphia 38
Win Losers (we're bleep) Lose
0 MINNESOTA San Francisco 170
4 OAKLAND Pittsburgh 146
3 Kansas City NEW ORLEANS 138
3 TENNESSEE Detroit 128
8 Jacksonville INDIANAPOLIS 93
18 SEATTLE Green Bay 82
35 Cincinnati WASHINGTON 59
20 New York Giants CAROLINA 56
Win Pretty Even (we're indifferent) Lose
39 Atlanta SAN DIEGO 33

This week, our top score was 7-for-10, and only four had that score. Congratulations to connor.cmr, Gabby, Senor Heepee, and Wittenstar82 for persevering better than anyone else this week.

On KD's Week #2 contest page, I commented about several near the top of the overall leaderboard who didn't get their Week #3 picks in. Last week's overall leader had 15. They were near the top with 14 and 13. They are not out of it. Week #3 was so tough that the overall lead only got pushed from 15 to 21. And, we have a new leader.

Congratulations to The Penguin. You are the only one to reach 21. You would have had some company had the Packers beaten the Seahawks. But, that didn't happen. You do have ten nipping at your heels only one off the pace, nineteen more two behind you, and thirty-one more three behind you. That's a total of sixty no more than three out of the lead. I dare say that this is still anyone's contest to win.

Let's see how many names I can list in this week's scoreboard and in the overall leaderboard. Of course, KD will list the complete leaderboard so I am not worried about that. And, this week was so bad that some of you don't want your scores listed. Oh, well, here goes:

Top Scores This Week
Week #2 Score Week #2 Score Overall Score Overall Score
connor.cmr 7 Switters023 5 The Penguin 21 cowdog 17
Gabby 7 Tennessee Jed 5 boyman 20 DEL1SLE 17
Senor Heepee 7 Through Thick And Thin 5 D_Carter 20 demarcus94 17
Wittenstar82 7 Troy 5 Fergie3108 20 Frankster_1 17
@Tonekupone 6 Tuna Helper 5 LRogue 20 HALIFAXPACOWBOY 17
Antonio S 6 yellowrose 5 revellyre 20 HLCJ69 17
bcg08 6 4evercowboy 4 scotscowboyfan 20 Howleyesque 17
BigHat in NewTexas 6 Aaron Burtram 4 Senor Heepee 20 I am Ironman!!! 17
DEL1SLE 6 Aggie Man 4 SoCalCowboysFan12 20 JDobermans 17
Fergie3108 6 Babygirl71 4 wildtigger2 20 j-man 17
LRogue 6 Baked Potato Soup 4 ziggy 19 20 letsgtld 17
mdlusk 6 beastygaming 4 Antonio S 19 LiveNDieBlue 17
NCHeelsBoysFan 6 Ben24626 4 BigHat in NewTexas 19 MSM33 17
Plinkostar 6 Bertangalo 4 BishopWest 19 neon greon 17
Pnut Gallery 6 BigBad Joe 4 California805Cowboy 19 NJcowboysFAN 17
realfanandairman 6 California805Cowboy 4 ChrisMan 19 oldboysfan 17
Rex Pfister 6 CapitalT 4 cowboy1966 19 One.Cool.Customer 17
rioplayer7 6 cee-los 4 LoboTX 19 realfanandairman 17
ROMO4MVP 6 cowboy1966 4 mdlusk 19 reron79 17
The Penguin 6 CowboyinExile 4 Plinkostar 19 Rohpuri 17
TruBluToTheCore 6 cwby4lf 4 Pnut Gallery 19 Shakeepuddn 17
Tunabomber11 6 dbunny8it 4 Portland's Cowboy fan 19 Static 17
WA_Cowboy 6 EchoEcho 4 Rex Pfister 19 Switters023 17
Wardo83 6 gainedm 4 ROMO4MVP 19 Travlr 17
wildtigger2 6 ginge159 4 sexililkitti 19 Trueblue122 17
wittenfan 6 Hookem Up 4 shainyc 19 tsylvest 17
ziggy 19 6 illcowboy 4 TheBlueBaron 19 4evercowboy 16
Against the Wall-24 5 IRONRAVEN 4 Troy 19 Aggie Man 16
Alpha 5 jakezze01 4 TruBluToTheCore 19 alfanti 16
behind.enemylines 5 jayrosser27 4 WA_Cowboy 19 Alpha 16
Bellotti's Mustache 5 JLMax09 4 @Tonekupone 18 beastygaming 16
BishopWest 5 j-man 4 Against the Wall-24 18 Becho 16
BoydNation 5 jockmeister 4 Bellotti's Mustache 18 boys.camncrew 16
boyman 5 LiveNDieBlue 4 ButtPad 18 cee-los 16
ButtPad 5 lucke 4 connor.cmr 18 cproctor6 16
ChrisMan 5 mehrans9 4 CowboyinExile 18 cwby4lf 16
D_Carter 5 meisternance 4 GordBerl 18 gabrielau23 16
demarcus94 5 MSM33 4 Hawkeye101 18 hookerhome 16
Frankster_1 5 mushpuppy 4 illcowboy 18 jakezze01 16
gabrielau23 5 nikeorlipstick 4 IRONRAVEN 18 JLMax09 16
GordBerl 5 NJcowboysFAN 4 jayrosser27 18 k@s! 16
Hawkeye101 5 Oh Hai Doggy 4 Jebediah Flibberbrush 18 KD Drummond 16
HLCJ69 5 oldboysfan 4 jgoddard8409 18 meisternance 16
hookerhome 5 Panzer84 4 krikaley 18 Mikellie 16
Howleyesque 5 Pasipple 4 Max2 18 NCHeelsBoysFan 16
I am Ironman!!! 5 PMDykstra 4 milehightexan 18 Nord15 16
JDobermans 5 Rat-Pack 4 mushpuppy 18 Panzer84 16
jgoddard8409 5 revellyre 4 nikeorlipstick 18 pierrelmn 16
Joe21 5 Rohpuri 4 Pasipple 18 skinny post 16
kethry1313 5 shainyc 4 PMDykstra 18 Specific 16
krikaley 5 Shakeepuddn 4 rioplayer7 18 starbury_to_s-jaxci2000 16
letsgtld 5 SinceTooLong 4 slowmotion80 18 Tallgrass Prairie 16
LoboTX 5 slowmotion80 4 SoCal Cowboys 18 Timmy G 16
Max2 5 Static 4 TARHEEL PAUL 18 True Blue-liever 16
Mikellie 5 swanhooch 4 Tennessee Jed 18 Uncas 16
Mikhaili 5 Tallgrass Prairie 4 Through Thick And Thin 18 whsbb99 16
neon greon 5 TheBlueBaron 4 TK19 18 17 tied with 15
Pharmboy23 5 TheDemolitionDan 4 Tunabomber11 18 15 tied with 14
pierrelmn 5 thehogster65 4 Wardo83 18 10 tied with 13
reron79 5 TK19 4 wittenfan 18 12 tied with 12
scotscowboyfan 5 Travlr 4 Wittenstar82 18 4 tied with 11
sexililkitti 5 Trueblue122 4 Allan Uy 17 6 tied with 10
skinny post 5 whsbb99 4 bcg08 17 2 tied with 9
SoCal Cowboys 5 37 tied with 3 BigBad Joe 17 22 tied with 8
SoCalCowboysFan12 5 8 tied with 2 CapitalT 17 11 tied with 7
starbury_to_s-jaxci2000 5 2 tied with 1 CowboyBaby 17 24 others (6 or less)

I feel really badly for FuriousDman. He made really solid picks in his ten games. See them here. In nine of them, he picked with the majority of us. Unfortunately, after the Cowboys' win, his next nine teams all lost. He picked all eight of our "losers", and San Diego at home to Atlanta. Again, none of those were bad picks. It looked great on paper. That's just how this week went.

Let's look ahead. Week #4 begins the byes. Only two teams have byes this week, so there will be fifteen games this week and not sixteen. Picking gets harder when six teams have byes, because we have to pick ten games from only thirteen. Sometimes, there are more games we would like to avoid than we can, and we have to pick games that we would rather skip.

Each week, I am offering a chance to make Thursday Game Only picks on my FanPost. That way, you can avoid the fear of missing the open window between KD's new contest page and the Thursday kickoff.

Please, don't be the one that makes a Thursday Game Only pick (here or on KD's page) and forgets to get back with the other nine. We have had at least one person each week do that.

Many of you may want this game this week. Use Thursday Game Only as your subject, and copy/paste one of these lines into the body of your comment (pick the line with the asterisks around the winner; that will be bold in your post):

Cleveland at *BALTIMORE*

*Cleveland* at BALTIMORE

(Much) Better luck picking this coming week.

[UPDATE - I inadvertently left off the leaderboard table ten names of those with 17. Thanks to I Am Ironman!!! for the catch. That table is now fixed. Sorry to those of you who have 15. Your names were listed before, but not now. You can see your name in KD's next contest page because he lists everyone's overall scores.]

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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