Matthew Emmons-US PRESSWIRE - Presswire
There are more close games through three weeks, and more teams with a 2-1 or 1-2 record, than ever before in the history of the NFL. How are you supposed to pick winners in a league where games are this close? We try anyway.
If you had money riding on the games last weekend, chances are you are not a happy camper right now. Only eight of the favorites won their games in Week 3, and if you were making your picks based on the Vegas lines, you were in for a rude awakening.
It's been a strange first three weeks for the NFL. Close games have been a staple of the 2012 NFL season as 28 games have been decided by one score (eight points or fewer), tied with 1988 for the most such games through a season's first three weeks. At the same time, there are 27 teams with a 2-1 or 1-2 record, the most such clubs since realignment in 2002.
How are you supposed to pick winners in a league where games are this close?
Our BTB pick 'em panel didn't fare well at all last week: rabblerousr got only three of sixteen picks right, Dave and Brandon only got 4. Coty Saxman's method of picking the opposite of everybody else paid off beautifully last week as he got ten picks right. The BTB consensus was a disappointing 5-11 and dropped to a 54% accuracy rate for the season. At 26-22 our consensus pick has even fallen behind the consensus pick in KDs 10-for-10 contest, which is running at 27-21.
The spread for the Cowboys' Monday night game against the Bears opened with the Cowboys at -3 but has since moved to -4 as the money started coming in for the home team. The picture is a little different for the total, which opened at 45 but has since dropped to 41.5 amid concerns that the Cowboys could struggle once more to move the chains. We don't worry about things like that and predictably like the Cowboys for the win on Monday.
Below are all our picks for Week 4, 2012.
Do you agree or disagree with our picks, and do you think Coty stands a chance of repeating as the winner this week? Let us know in the comments.