FanPost

KD's 10-for-10 - 2012 Week #17 Update and Wild Card Contest

Last year, at the close of the season, I wrote my Week #17 update with stats and comments from that closing heartbreaker and offering some statistics from the overall contest.

Then, later in the week, I offered a second FanPost after realizing what KD was offering as a Playoff Contest. In that second FanPost, and with his permission and blessing, I ran a contest to pick the Wild Card winners. Then, everyone migrated over to his Playoff Contest, and Mikellie made history.

I invite you to read all three of these posts so you can see (or be reminded) how KD and I ended last season. I'm going to be slightly different this year - again, because of time. I thought about just doing one single FanPost, but I need to get the Pick-em up sooner, and it will take me longer to compile all the stats and awards that I wish to give this year.

So, this FanPost will be like my "normal" weekly FanPosts - reports and tables from week #17, congratulations to this week's 10-for-10, and an update on the overall leaderboard.

I will do a later FanPost with all my awards and recognitions. Read last year's final FanPost and let me know if there's anything else you would like to see. Some of the recognitions came as a result of a direct request from one or more of you. I'll be happy to research something for you and report there.

There is one caveat - I do not have KD's records from 2010, the first year of 10-for-10. So, most of my 2010 info is word-of-mouth. I do have my records from 2011 and 2012, and I can easily review any/all of my previous FanPosts.

So, here goes - my final weekly report from this season and the Wild Card Contest (make picks here this week):

First, I noticed how participation dropped off during the final weeks of 2011. So, I offered Holiday Bonus FanPosts around Thanksgiving to cover weeks #12-14 and in early December to cover the final three weeks (#15-17). Many of you availed yourselves and posted picks without fear of missing out because of vacations or travels.

Two interesting things happened over the past six weeks. One, although they helped, participation still declined each week and the final week participation was less than 40% of our record week #1 participation. Secondly, some of you deliberately posted all of your picks early and challenged the rest of us to match you. This was begun by Rex Pfister, who began the 30-for-30 challenge. One who met the challenge and raised the stakes was k@s!, who challenged Rex and anyone else to pick all sixteen games, not just ten. The same two contests ran through weeks #15-17 in the second Holiday Bonus, and several participated in both 30-for-30 and 48-for-48.

Some actually did better this past week with their early December picks than others who waited until the very last moment this past Sunday.

Here's that participation table:

Participation
Week Played This Week Missed This Week Total
1 222 0 222
2 199 44 243
3 177 69 246
4 168 83 251
5 149 104 253
6 147 108 255
7 137 119 256
8 137 120 257
9 131 127 258
10 130 129 259
11 122 137 259
12 120 139 259
13 113 146 259
14 110 149 259
15 102 157 259
16 98 161 259
17 86 173 259

It was difficult to pick week #17 (especially those who made their picks three weeks ago), since we really didn't know who would play hard and who would just go through the motions. We lost three games where almost everyone picked the favorite, and each of them lost. Then, we got into a rhythm, and almost everyone picked the late games the same way, and got them right. Then came Sunday night. Here's how we did this past week in each game.

Week #17 Results (Home in CAPS)
Win Winners (we're great) Lose
82 DENVER Kansas City 1
80 NEW ENGLAND Miami 1
77 SAN FRANCISCO Arizona 1
76 SEATTLE St. Louis 3
53 PITTSBURGH Cleveland 2
44 SAN DIEGO Oakland 3
38 NEW YORK GIANTS Philadelphia 8
33 TENNESSEE Jacksonville 2
22 BUFFALO New York Jets 1
22 Chicago DETROIT 11
Win Losers (we're bleep) Lose
8 WASHINGTON Dallas 78
5 Carolina NEW ORLEANS 51
3 Tampa Bay ATLANTA 47
13 MINNESOTA Green Bay 29
10 INDIANAPOLIS Houston 25
Win Pretty Even (we're indifferent) Lose
15 CINCINNATI Baltimore 8

One.Cool.Customer and I have been exchanging notes and tracking the 10-for-10 weekly consensus picks on each game, and seeing how well we did against the Front Page Writers (each week, O.C.C hosts a page listing each FPW pick for each game). We've been close all year, and entered the final weekend three games down. Unfortunately, our consensus preferences were identical on all sixteen games. We got eleven right; they got the same eleven right. we missed five; they missed the same five.

So, we were not able to gain on them and lost to them by three games. Congratulations to the Front Page Writers. The "pros" beat us "rank amateurs" this year. Here's how we did against them each week:

2012 10-for-10 Consensus vs. Front Page Writers
Week 10-for-10 Wins 10-for-10 Losses Front Page Wins Front Page Losses
1 11 5 11 5
2 8 8 10 6
3 8 8 5 11
4 10 5 10 5
5 10 4 10 4
6 4 10 6 8
7 12 1 12 1
8 8 6 10 4
9 11 3 10 4
10 9 5 9 5
11 13 1 13 1
12 9.5 6.5 9 7
13 10 6 11 5
14 8.5 7.5 9 7
15 11 5 10 6
16 11 5 12 4
17 11 5 11 5
Total 165 91 168 88

I have noticed that we typically jump on the same teams and blindly pick them each week. Sometimes, it takes two or three losses in a row before we quit unanimously picking them to win each week. Here's how we did picking each team each week. The first letter is our pick for that team for that week - did we pick them to win or lose - and the second letter is for the actual result. Here is how I dealt with ties. There was one regular season tie this year - the first Rams-49ers game. That was counted as a "loss" for both teams, since neither won the game (I lost a 10-for-10 because of this; I was 9-for-9 and had the 49ers). We also had two 10-for-10 ties, where the same number picked each team. Since our consensus was evenly split, those two were each scored as a half-win and a half-loss for each team.

Here's our final tally for each team/each game:

Picks/Results for Each Team/Each Week
Team Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4 Wk 5 Wk 6 Wk 7 Wk 8 Wk 9 Wk 10 Wk 11 Wk 12 Wk 13 Wk 14 Wk 15 Wk 16 Wk 17 W L
Denver WW WL LL WW LL WW Bye WW WW WW WW WW WW WW WW WW WW 15 1
Kansas City LL LL LW LL LL LL Bye LL LL LL LL LL LW LL LL LL LL 14 2
Oakland LL WL LW LL Bye LL WW WW LL LL LL LL LL LL WW LL LL 14 2
Jacksonville LL LL LW LL LL Bye LL LL LL LL LL LW LL TL LL LL LL 13.5 2.5
Chicago WW LL WW LW WW Bye WW WW WW LL LL WW WL WL LL WW WW 13 3
Houston WW WW WW WW WW WL WW Bye WW WW WW WW WW LL WW WL WL 13 3
New England WW WL LL WW WW WL WW WW Bye WW WW WW WW WW WL WW WW 13 3
San Diego WW WW LL WW LL LL Bye WL WW LL LL LL LL LW WL WW WW 13 3
Baltimore WW WL WW WW WW LW LL Bye WW WW WW WW WL WL LL WW LL 12 4
Buffalo WL WW WW LL LL LW WL Bye LL LL WW LL WW WL LL LL WW 12 4
Cleveland LL LL LL LL LL LW LL LW LL Bye LL LW WW WW WL LL LL 12 4
Philadelphia WW LW LL LW LL WL Bye LL LL LL LL LL LL LW LL LL LL 12 4
New York Jets LW LL WW LL LL LW LL WL Bye LL LW LL WW TW LL LL LL 11.5 4.5
Atlanta WW LW WW WW WW WW Bye WW LW WL WW WW WW WL WW WW WL 11 5
Cincinnati LL WW LW WW WL WL LL Bye LL LW WW WW WW LL WW LW WW 11 5
Miami LL LW LL LL LW WW Bye LW LL WL LL LW LL LL WW WW LL 11 5
Arizona LW LW WW WW WL WL LL LL LL Bye LL TL LL LL LW LL LL 10.5 5.5
Green Bay WL WW WL WW WL LW WW WW WW Bye WW WL WW WW WW WW WL 10 6
Tampa Bay LW LL LL WL Bye WW LL LW WW WW WW LL LL WL LL WL LW 10 6
Tennessee LL LL LW LL LL LW LW WL LL LW Bye WL LL LL WW LL WW 10 6
Detroit WW LL WL WL Bye LW LL LW WW LW LL LL WL LL WL LL LL 9 7
Indianapolis LL LW WL Bye LW WL WW LW WW WW LL WW LW WW LL WW LW 9 7
Pittsburgh LL WW WL Bye WW WL WW WW LW WW LL WL LW WL LL WL WW 9 7
Dallas WW WL WW WL Bye WL WW WL WL WW WW WL WW WW WW WL WL 8 8
New Orleans WL WL WL LL WW Bye WW LL WW LW WW WL LL WL WW LW WL 8 8
San Francisco LW WW WL WW WW WL WW WW Bye WT WW LW WL WW LW WL WW 8 8
Carolina WL LW WL LL WL Bye LL LL LW LL LL WW WL LW LW WW LW 7 9
New York Giants LL WW LW WL WW LW WW LW WL WL Bye LW WL LW LL LL WW 7 9
St Louis LL LW LL LW LW LL LL LL Bye LT WL TW LW LW WL LW LL 6.5 9.5
Minnesota WW WL LW LW WW WL WW WL LL WL Bye LL LL LW LW LW LW 6 10
Seattle WL LW LW WL LW LW LL WL WW WW Bye WL WL WW WW LW WW 6 10
Washington LW WL WL LW LL LW LL LL WL Bye WW LW LW LW LW WW LW 5 11
Total 330 182

Finally, here are all the scores from week #17. Note, we had two players (including KD Drummond himself) get their picks in late this week. So, they missed the first nine games and only played the final seven. They actually did better than several who sent in ten picks.

Two guys ended up at the top of both categories - ChrisMan scored 10-for-10 this week and finished the overall competition only one behind this year's champion - CowboyBaby. CowboyBaby could not be caught as his score each of the final weeks was either the top score of the week, or good enough that only a handful gained on him. Closing with a solid 9-for-10, no one could catch him this week. Congratulations to both. CowboyBaby gets added to the Wing of Champions with this overall championship. ChrisMan gets moved up in the Wing of Honor as this is his third 10-for-10 - all this season. In my next FanPost, I will track the veritable explosion of 10-for-10s this season.

I am listing all eighty-six scores from week #17, but I am listing the top 100 (and ties) in the overall. So, the table is a little skewed. If you didn't make the top 100, then KD will list you when he lists the complete scores. Also, I will have you later in the week when I put up my awards/recognitions.

Top Scores This Week
Week #17 Score Week #17 Score Overall Score Overall Score
ChrisMan 10 Mikellie 7 CowboyBaby 128 kethry1313 114
Cowboy Joe 9 mushpuppy 7 ChrisMan 127 Junkyard Dog 113
CowboyBaby 9 Nord15 7 ziggy 19 125 skinny post 113
NorthStar99 9 Oh Hai Doggy 7 Hawkeye101 124 SoCal Cowboys 113
Static 9 Pasipple 7 BishopWest 122 1Bullseye 112
beastygaming 8 revellyre 7 Jebediah Flibberbrush 121 Hookem Up 112
BishopWest 8 SoCal Cowboys 7 krikaley 121 letsgtld 112
Hawkeye101 8 Switters023 7 Aggie Man 120 Pasipple 112
illcowboy 8 Through Thick And Thin 7 jstaubach 120 Fergie3108 111
JDobermans 8 Timmy G 7 mdlusk 120 jakezze01 111
Jebediah Flibberbrush 8 wittenfan 7 mushpuppy 120 Mikellie 111
Junkyard Dog 8 Wittenstar82 7 Nord15 120 Panzer84 111
krikaley 8 Antonio S 6 WA_Cowboy 120 shainyc 111
meisternance 8 CapitalT 6 Against the Wall-24 119 CowboysFan1994 110
MSM33 8 cowdog 6 beastygaming 119 lucke 110
Realist Larry 8 cproctor6 6 connor.cmr 119 milehightexan 110
Scurrah Jurrah 8 Hobbes42 6 cowboy1966 119 Realist Larry 110
Tallgrass Prairie 8 Hookem Up 6 illcowboy 119 Static 110
TheDemolitionDan 8 j-man 6 JDobermans 119 CowboyinExile 109
Travlr 8 jockmeister 6 k@s! 119 jockmeister 108
Tuna Helper 8 Johnny Cage 6 MSM33 119 slowmotion80 108
WA_Cowboy 8 kethry1313 6 oldboysfan 119 Allan Uy 107
ziggy 19 8 lucke 6 Rex Pfister 119 HLCJ69 107
1Bullseye 7 mdlusk 6 Switters023 119 @Tonekupone 106
Against the Wall-24 7 oldboysfan 6 Through Thick And Thin 119 Benthere 105
Aggie Man 7 One.Cool.Customer 6 Travlr 119 EchoEcho 105
Babygirl71 7 pierrelmn 6 wittenfan 119 nikeorlipstick 105
Benthere 7 skinny post 6 cproctor6 118 Scurrah Jurrah 105
boys.camncrew 7 Specific 6 Frankster_1 118 ginge159 104
connor.cmr 7 Tennessee_Jed 6 meisternance 118 ibleedcowboyblue 104
cowboy1966 7 True Blue-liever 6 revellyre 118 TARHEEL PAUL 104
CowboyinExile 7 Wardo83 6 TheDemolitionDan 118 Alpha 103
CowboysFan1994 7 California805Cowboy 5 Wardo83 118 Tallgrass Prairie 103
EchoEcho 7 @Tonekupone 5 Wittenstar82 118 Tuna Helper 103
Frankster_1 7 hookerhome 5 j-man 117 yellowrose 103
gabrielau23 7 Howleyesque 5 Tennessee_Jed 117 pierrelmn 102
HLCJ69 7 Max2 5 Timmy G 117 Bertangalo 101
ibleedcowboyblue 7 Rex Pfister 5 jayrosser27 116 boyman 101
jakezze01 7 yellowrose 5 One.Cool.Customer 116 Max2 101
jayrosser27 7 KD Drummond 4 Specific 116 gabrielau23 100
jstaubach 7 slowmotion80 4 True Blue-liever 116 Gabby 99
k@s! 7 Gabby 3 Antonio S 115 swanhooch 98
letsgtld 7 Panzer84 1 boys.camncrew 115 bcg08 97
Cowboy Joe 115 D_Carter 95
hookerhome 115 Oh Hai Doggy 95
NorthStar99 115 Lajitas Lava 93
BigBad Joe 114 Unique 91
CapitalT 114 alfanti 90
cowdog 114 Babygirl71 90
Howleyesque 114 Ben24626 90
KD Drummond 114 BoydNation 90

Here are the results from the weeks #15-17 30-for-30 and 48-for-48 contests. Thanks again to Rex Pfister for beginning the 30-for-30 challenge, and to k@s! for raising the stakes to 48-for-48. Rex tied for first in the first 30-for-30 (weeks #12-14) and won the 48-for-48 challenge over k@s!. But, he didn't fare as well this time, finishing last in both challenges. Congratulations to all of these for their early December prognostications and intestinal fortitude.

30-for-30 final results (weeks #15-17):

  • 23 - meisternance (8-7-8)
  • 22 - krikaley (8-7-7)
  • 21 - cowdog (7-8-6), k@s! and Switters023 (both 7-7-7), and WA_Cowboy (5-8-8)
  • 20 - Tallgrass Prairie (7-5-8)
  • 18 - Rex Pfister (6-7-5)

48-for-48 final results (weeks #15-17):

  • 33 - k@s! (11-9-13) and Switters023 (13-10-10)
  • 32 - meisternance (11-9-12)
  • 28 - Rex Pfister (10-8-10)

We had eight participants in this round of 30-for-30 (six of those also participated in the earlier round) and four participants in 48-for-48 (two of those also participated in the earlier round). If I total both "sessions" and get scores for 60-for-60 (the final six weeks of the season) and 96-for-96 (same thing, but all sixteen games), these are the results:

60-for-60 (weeks #12-14 plus #15-17 30-for-30 scores):

  • 45 - meisternance (7-8-7 and 8-7-8)
  • 44 - k@s! (8-7-8 and 7-7-7) and Switters023 (8-8-7 and 7-7-7)
  • 41 - Rex Pfister (8-7-8 and 6-7-5)
  • 40 - Tallgrass Prairie (6-7-7 and 7-5-8)
  • 38 - cowdog (6-6-5 and 7-8-6)

96-for-96 (weeks #12-14 plus #15-17 48-for-48 scores):

  • 63 - k@s! (10-10-10 and 11-9-13)
  • 60 - Rex Pfister (12-10-10 and 10-8-10)

I will have more recognitions in my next FanPost. Now, about the Wild Card Contest...

Last year, one person - ziggy19 - got all four Wild Card Weekend picks correctly (hint - he was the only one to go "all-homer", and pick the four division winners to knock off the wild cards). Will that strategy work this time?

Here are the games. The first game is a rematch of last year's first playoff game (same teams, same seeds, same playoff slot). All Houston had to do was win a game that meant nothing to the Colts (they were locked into their playoff position, win or lose). They would have had the top seed and homefield advantage. They dropped to the third seed by losing their final two games. If Gary Kubiak and Wade Phillips lead this Texans team to a first-round defeat, heads may roll.

The second game is a rematch of Sunday afternoon, except this one is on the frozen tundra and not a dome. Like the Texans, if the Packers had won that game, they would have been off this weekend. Now, they play the team that just beat them.

The third game has the Colts playing in Baltimore. Anyone remember the moving trucks relocating the Colts from Baltimore to Indianapolis in the dead of night? Baltimore residents remember. The Colts have a better record than the Ravens. Does that mean anything?

The fourth game stirs up emotions in Cowboys fans. What if Dallas had beaten the Redskins? Would the Cowboys have stood a chance against the Seahawks? What about the Redskins? Do we have a compelling/rooting interest in this game, or any of the playoff games this year?

There are four new playoff teams this year who were not part of last year's playoffs, replacing four who did not return. All are playing this weekend. The other eight participated last year. So, half of the NFL (sixteen teams) participated in the playoffs last year and/or this year. The other half (sixteen teams) did not. Note that the Cowboys were the last team eliminated in each of the past two years with control over their destiny. Maybe next season, the NFL can let the Cowboys close the regular season at home, instead of playing these elimination games on the road.

Five AFC teams returned to the playoffs, while Indianapolis replaced Pittsburgh. Half of the NFC turned over this year. Atlanta, Green Bay, and San Francisco returned, and Detroit, New Orleans, and the Giants were replaced by Minnesota, Seattle, and Washington.

Here is that breakdown:

  • 2011 - Detroit, New Orleans, New York Giants, Pittsburgh
  • 2012 - Minnesota, Indianapolis, Seattle, and Washington
  • both - Atlanta, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Denver, Green Bay, Houston, New England, San Francisco
  • neither - Arizona, Buffalo, Carolina, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Miami, New York Jets, Philadelphia, Oakland, St. Louis, San Diego, Tampa Bay, and Tennessee

Are there any of these twelve teams that we would like to see holding the Lombardi in five weeks? Are there any that we don't want to see in the Super Bowl this year?

Here is the Wild Card Weekend lineup. Can you go 4-for-4?

Cincinnati at HOUSTON

Minnesota at GREEN BAY

Indianapolis at BALTIMORE

Seattle at WASHINGTON

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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