There are many laws that occur in Nature, and many of them can be applied to a business or a Football Organization that also qualifies as a business.
1. Such a law is the 80-20 rule. I will leave this one for another time and focus on another one that I want to discuss today, and it is the Bell Shaped Curve. See Figure 1 Below:
Notice that the Yellow has the most area under this curve. This would be equal to what could be considered the number of "things" that are average, and the blue colors are the number that are both above average and below average, and the red are the exceptional and the poor.
Now, the "things" can be TEAMS, COACHES, WR's, etc, etc. The point is that in the NFL as in anything, you will find that this curve occurs naturally and that most teams fall into the average category, and then the next most would be those teams that are both above average, and below average and then the red is the few that are exceptional and horrible.
What happens in the NFL is that the draft and the salary cap are designed so that over the long haul, teams will even out in terms of talent if most of the organization is average, and then if you have the better GM, the better Head Coach, and the better Coordinators, you can move into the blue and red areas.
Now, with that said, I would like to offer one other thing to consider. As far as the talent on a team goes, where do you want the bell shaped curve to fall out. In other words, do you want the red to be the QB? And the Blue to be the WR's and Running Backs, or do you want the offensive and Defensive Lines to be the blue and the QB to be the Red.
I think of all the cliches that are touted in the NFL, the one that is most true is that "The Games are won in the Trenches" and that Teams that can impose their will are the ones that are man handling the other line by being more physical and more dominate in moving the piles.
Teams that have everything in the yellow, are the ones that rely on luck and injuries to make them 10-6 and 6-10 rather than the 8-8 that the league is trying to force with the parity rules in place.
So, if you have your bell shaped curve in the right areas as far as the players on the field is concerned, the next area that you need to consider, is that aside from talent, the other thing that wins is scheme. So, if most teams have about the same talent, the key would be to insure that you have the blue and red Coordinators because they implement the schemes that can overcome equal or inferior talent.
This brings me to the conclusion of my article. The coaches that impact the outcome the most in my opinion are the Coordinators. If they innovate they will make it to where you have a much wider scoring differential and thus more room for mistakes and the bounce of the ball.
And this means we need an innovated OC. One that is not somebody who just teaches the same old receiver tree that is run with a small nuance. Somebody like Chip Kelly. A guy like Bill Walsh. Guys that can bring something that the defense will loose sleep over.
We need someone that will put some new wrinkles in the game plan and playbook that some will see as gimmicky, but in reality are plays that are "thinking out of the box." Things that hit real hard and then fade like the Wildcat, and then things that hit hard and may not fade so quickly like the Zone Read and the Hurry-up that the Pats run. Of all the Organizations, the Pats put the most effort in keeping the Offense way ahead of the other defenses. There lies the reason why the Pats are routinely up in the red as the highest scoring team from year to year, as they continue to look for any edge in innovation like the two tight ends and the schemes they used to get them open. The use of a short super quick slot guy that can easily get open because of his quickness.
When your organization has too many parts in the yellow, then you wind up in too many close games and that is one reason that we find this team hovering around the 500 mark. Right in the yellow in Wins and Losses.
The head coach needs to focus on just being the head coach and paying attention to the details of time clock management, and when to go for it on fourth down, and most importantly managing the managers.
We need a new OC. One that is not in the Yellow!