FanPost

KD's 10-for-10 - 2013 Week #7 Update

What's a 10-for-10 contest without a 10-for-10? Averaging 200 players a week, I have counted 1434 entries through seven weeks. I know, the first year KD ran his contest as a FanPost only one scored 10-for-10 the entire year. Maybe it's the scorekeeper.

I began keeping score in 2011. We had three in week #2, twenty-four for the season, and nineteen of them in one record-setting week. 2012 was more - exponentially more. We had one 10-for-10 in week #1, a new record of twenty-six in week #7, a mind-boggling forty in week #12, and seventy-four for the season.

The week #17 10-for-10 that closed the season was - do the math - the ninety-ninth 10-for-10. Our first one in 2013 would be extra special, as it would be our hundredth. Did KD ever imagine that his contest would take off the way it has - with two hundred players a week and a hundred 10-for-10s?

Well, the stars aligned again - not for forty like 2012 week #12 - but for one faithful fan and participant - Mikellie (link is to his entry). This is his first 10-for-10, although he is already a member of the Hall of Fame. How? He had an incredible run through KD's 2011 Playoff Contest, that began and ended with the Giants.

You know how KD's Playoff Contest works. After the Wild Card Weekend games are done, and the division round is set, he asks for seven winners - all four division winners, the two conference champions, and the Super Bowl winner - before the division round begins.He went a perfect 7-for-7 - all four division winners, both conference winners, and the underdog Giants in the Super Bowl.

How fitting it is that this week's 10-for-10 came down to - the Giants. But, these were the winless Giants. However, they came through for him again.

Congratulations, Mikellie, on your 10-for-10 - the first 10-for-10 this year, and the historic one hundredth 10-for-10 in the four year history of KD's contest.

This week, we not only had our first 10-for-10; we also had eleven new participants. Even with some longtime regular stalwarts MIA this week, we still had an even 200 participate.

Here is the participation table:

Participation
Week Played This Week Missed This Week Total
1 242 0 242
2 207 49 256
3 199 60 259
4 198 67 265
5 189 80 269
6 199 80 279
7 200 90 290

As a consensus, we got more right this week than wrong. Our nine wins were strong; only fifty-six misses in those nine games. However, four of our six losses were really bad, and one more was just bad. Because of them, our average score was 6.5-for-10. Our overall leader went 7-for-10 and only thirty people beat him.

Here are our results this week:

Week #7 Results (Home in CAPS)
Win Winners (we're great) Lose
189 Dallas PHILADELPHIA 11
179 San Diego JACKSONVILLE 3
177 KANSAS CITY Houston 4
168 GREEN BAY Cleveland 2
146 San Francisco TENNESSEE 8
133 ATLANTA Tampa Bay 3
98 Seattle ARIZONA 3
88 CAROLINA St. Louis 9
63 NEW YORK GIANTS Minnesota 13
Win Losers (we're bleep) Lose
13 NEW YORK JETS New England 144
2 Buffalo MIAMI 137
7 INDIANAPOLIS Denver 136
3 WASHINGTON Chicago 122
11 PITTSBURGH Baltimore 61
Win Pretty Even (we're indecisive) Lose
27 Cincinnati DETROIT 38

After last week, we were down to two teams that our consensus had picked perfectly each week (Denver - picked to win each week; Jacksonville - picked to lose each week). With the Broncos' loss to the Colts, we now only have one team that we have picked perfectly this season - Jacksonville.

Who looks at (or cares about) this information? I do; that's why I include it each week. I cited it (but did not follow it) in making my picks this week. I noticed that most of us were picking the Patriots over the Jets. I commented that "we had mis-picked the Patriots the past three weeks" (either picking them to win when they lost, or picking them to lose when they won). Since we were "all" picking the Patriots, I should have picked the Jets. That was one of my two misses this week.

Here's a look at how we have picked each team, each week (first letter - our pick; second letter - actual result):

Picks/Results for Each Team/Each Week
Team Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4 Wk 5 Wk 6 Wk 7 Wk 8 Wk 9 Wk 10 Wk 11 Wk 12 Wk 13 Wk 14 Wk 15 Wk 16 Wk 17 W L
Jacksonville LL LL LL LL LL LL LL 7 0
Denver WW WW WW WW WW WW WL 6 1
Kansas City WW LW WW WW WW WW WW 6 1
New York Giants LL LL WL LL LL LL WW 6 1
Seattle WW LW WW WW LL WW WW 6 1
St Louis WW LL LL LL WW LW LL 6 1
Tennessee LW LL WW WW LL LL LL 6 1
Green Bay LL WW WL Bye WW WW WW 5 1
New Orleans WW WW WW WW WW WL Bye 5 1
Oakland LL WW LL LL LW LL Bye 5 1
Tampa Bay WL LL LL LL Bye LL LL 5 1
Arizona LL LW LL WW LW LL LL 5 2
Dallas WW WL WW WL LL WW WW 5 2
Houston WW WW WL LL LL WL LL 5 2
Philadelphia LW WL LL LL WW WW LL 5 2
San Francisco WW WL WL WW WW WW WW 5 2
Washington WL LL LL WW Bye LL LW 4 2
Buffalo LL WW WL LW LL LL LW 4 3
Chicago LW WW WW WL LL WW WL 4 3
Cleveland WL LL LW LW WW LL LL 4 3
Detroit WW WL WW LW LL WW WL 4 3
Atlanta LL WW WL WL WL Bye WW 3 3
Carolina LL LL LW Bye WL LW WW 3 3
Minnesota LL LL WL LW Bye WL LL 3 3
Baltimore LL WW LW WL LW LL WL 3 4
Indianapolis WW WL LW WW WW WL LW 3 4
New England WW WW WW LW WL LW WL 3 4
San Diego LL LW LL LW WL LW WW 3 4
Pittsburgh WL LL LL WL Bye LW LW 2 4
Cincinnati WL WW LW WL LW WW LW 2 5
New York Jets LW LL LW LL LW WL LW 2 5
Miami LW LW LW LL WL Bye WL 1 5
Total 136 78

For the third week in a row, we maintain a lead the Front Page Writers. Each week, One.Cool.Customer hosts a pick-em page where all the FPWs offer picks in every game for the week. I track their consensus picks for each game and compare it to our consensus for each game. Last week, we took the lead on them. This week, our preferences, for the second week in a row, were identical to their consensus picks in all fifteen games. So, we maintain our two game lead another week.

Here is that updated table:

2013 10-for-10 Consensus vs. Front Page Writers
Week 10-for-10 Wins 10-for-10 Losses Front Page Wins Front Page Losses
1 11 5 11 5
2 11 5 12 4
3 9 7 10 6
4 9 6 7 8
5 9 5 7 7
6 10 5 10 5
7 9 6 9 6
Total 68 39 66 41

Parity has come to the NFL. I found as I looked at each game that in most cases, either team could win. I know, that's obvious. But, really, there are so many inconsistent teams. One week, they're up; another week, they're flat. In this league, the "up" team can beat the "flat" team almost any week. Look at the Cowboys - they put up 48 points and lose to Denver; Then, they put up 48 points - total - against two division rivals (one on NBC Sunday Night Football, and the other on the road) and win both by two touchdowns each.

The ones who did the best this week avoided NE-NYJ, Buf-MIA, Den-IND, and Chi-WAS. However, 60-75% of us played each game. Our cumulutive-composite-consensus score for those four games: 25-539. Ouch! I dodged two of these but got nailed by the other two. But, my 8-for-10 was only bested by five other players this week - Mikellie and his 10-for-10, and four others who only missed one each.

If you finished 8-for-10 or better (listed below), then you gained ground on the overall lead. If you finished 7-for-10 (also listed below), then you maintained your deficit. Everyone else lost ground. I am listing the top 104 scores this week (7-for-10 and better) and the top 90 overall scores (KD will have all 290 on his next contest page).

Congratulations to lsttexas for holding onto the lead for a fourth consecutive week, and for maintaining a two game lead over the field. However, others are gaining on him. Four are now tied for second, and six more are only three off the lead.

Here are the top scores this week, and the top scores on the overall leaderboard.

Top Scores Through Week #7
This Week Score This Week Score 2013 Overall Score 2013 Overall Score
Mikellie 10 f the romo haters 7 lsttexas 54 Babygirl71 47
DECOWBOY 9 faenix 7 Aggie Man 52 bcomets 47
illcowboy 9 gabrielau23 7 beastygaming 52 Canadian Cowboy_74 47
swanhooch 9 HonorTheStar 7 JDobermans 52 CDMac24 47
traceabides 9 Hookem Up 7 swanhooch 52 Cowboy Joe 47
bcomets 8 HurrahKaramazov 7 boys.camncrew 51 cowboy1966 47
beastygaming 8 iidacii 7 CowboyBaby 51 CowboyinExile 47
boys.camncrew 8 I'm Jed & I hate the giants 7 neon greon 51 cowdog 47
Cowboy_Chuck 8 InkedKing 7 Realist Larry 51 cwby4lf 47
dsmith12 8 jayrosser27 7 rhodri2112 51 D_Carter 47
ginge159 8 Jdewey 7 spur_for_life 51 HLCJ69 47
hookerhome 8 Jessy S 7 BigHat in NewTexas 50 IRONRAVEN 47
IRONRAVEN 8 jstaubach 7 jstaubach 50 ketom1220 47
Jacksmyname 8 jtiddahr 7 Lajitas Lava 50 letsgtld 47
JDobermans 8 Kegbearer 7 Max2 50 mdlusk 47
Jebediah Flibberbrush 8 ketom1220 7 Seatown7 50 meisternance 47
KD Drummond 8 letsgtld 7 Tallgrass Prairie 50 MSM33 47
Lajitas Lava 8 lsttexas 7 traceabides 50 mushpuppy 47
Max2 8 Luc in Chile 7 Useful_Idiot_ 50 nikeorlipstick 47
neon greon 8 lucke 7 Allan Uy 49 Oh Hai Doggy 47
nicomachus 8 makemyday 7 Baloo. 49 Portland's Cowboy fan 47
One.Cool.Customer 8 mikemc68 7 bookiebuster 49 Souna21 47
revellyre 8 milehightexan 7 CarloRue 49 1Bullseye 46
rhodri2112 8 MSM33 7 dsmith12 49 BoydNation 46
Ride Together, Die Together 8 mushpuppy 7 HonorTheStar 49 Enja 46
spur_for_life 8 nikeorlipstick 7 Hookem Up 49 jockmeister 46
The Big Jim 8 NutriaBoudin 7 I am Ironman!!! 49 mik888 46
Trent Schoneweis 8 Ok 7 illcowboy 49 Mikhaili 46
Wreck'emCowboys 8 OK2013 7 Jebediah Flibberbrush 49 MUTTS 46
Yellowbeard 8 oldboysfan 7 Mikellie 49 Nord15 46
1Bullseye 7 Pasipple 7 mikemc68 49 Panzer84 46
Aggie Man 7 Rajohnnn 7 nicomachus 49 Sandmann 46
Allan Uy 7 Realist Larry 7 Rex Pfister 49 scotscowboyfan 46
AnderJ86 7 Rex Pfister 7 Sean N 49 Smax17177 46
Babygirl71 7 Rummob 7 Through Thick And Thin 49 Specific 46
Baloo86 7 scotscowboyfan 7 Wreck'emCowboys 49 StarloverinWNC 46
Bertangalo 7 Shakeepuddn 7 BigBad Joe 48 suddendeath88 46
BigHat in NewTexas 7 since '66 7 cowboyswin 48 TheDemolitionDan 46
bookiebuster 7 sirjason22 7 EchoEcho 48 Trent Schoneweis 46
CarloRue 7 slowmotion80 7 geof 48 Yellowbeard 46
castaway42 7 Souna21 7 ginge159 48 20 tied with 45
connor.cmr 7 starbury_to_s-jaxci2000 7 hookerhome 48 12 tied with 44
cOUboy12 7 StarloverinWNC 7 jakezze01 48 15 tied with 43
Cowboy Joe 7 suddendeath88 7 jamesvb 48 3 tied with 42
CowboyBaby 7 Switters023 7 KD Drummond 48 7 teid with 41
CowboyNeal 7 Tallgrass Prairie 7 NorthStar99 48 3 tied with 40
cowboyswin 7 Tennessee_Jed 7 One.Cool.Customer 48 7 tied with 39
D_Carter 7 Through Thick And Thin 7 Pasipple 48 2 tied with 38
Dalai Luke 7 True Blue-liever 7 revellyre 48 makemyday 37
damnarab2 7 Useful_Idiot_ 7 skinny post 48 3 tied with 36
DCB* 7 wildtigger2 7 Tennessee_Jed 48 3 tied with 35
Delirious Nomad 7 wittenfan 7 Travlr 48 3 tied with 34
dentltek 7 YumaCactus 7 wittenfan 48 3 tied with 33
EchoEcho 7 zigg6411 7 Antonio S 47 4 tied with 32

I was asked this week to list a comparison of our scores to previous years. My response - I don't have access to KD's 2010 records, but I can provide that comparison to 2011 and 2012. However, the different bye schedules, and the different week-to-week difficulties make a direct comparison fairly difficult.

Because of the way I maintain my records, I would have to do a lot of work to recreate 2011 and 2012 leaderboards after week #7. Rather than do that, I will name some of the top scores here, and give these links to my FanPosts from those weeks, so you can see my tables from 2011 - Week #7 and 2012 - Week #8.

Top scores after week #7 in 2011: 54 - qbfannn (CowboyBaby); 53 - illcowboy, Jebediah Flibberbrush; 52 - ziggy 19. Follow the above link to see more top scores from 2011-07.

Top scores after week #7 in 2012: 50 - D_Carter, illcowboy; 49 - j-man, ziggy 19; 48 - BishopWest, CowboyBaby. Follow the above link to see more top scores from 2012-07.

Both of those were historic weeks, and I encourage you to (re-)read these FanPosts. Notable name changes from 2011 - qbfannn is now our CowboyBaby, and ChiaCrack is now known as Archie Barberio. Most notable about 2011-07 was the Harvey Haddix moment for Rummob. There were only thirteen games that week as six teams had a bye. He submitted picks for all thirteen games. His first twelve were right (made the Hall because only the first ten were counted), and missed his thirteenth pick (Ravens laid an egg on Monday night in Jacksonville). In 10-for-10 lore, Rummob will inexorably be linked with Haddix, as both were perfect beyond expectations - through twelve - and imperfect in the thirteenth.

2012-07 was historic, as we had our best record ever as a consensus - 12-1 - that week. We also had a then-record twenty-six 10-for-10s and fifty-seven more 9-for-10s. Wow!

This is another interesting week. Six teams have byes, and there are only thirteen games (must pick ten, and can only avoid three). So, you probably won't want to skip Thursday night.

Cowboys are early again this week, so no late picks (one tried this past week). Jacksonville is at "home" this week - in London - as the NFL jumps across the pond for the second time this year. A week after Peyton's homecoming (Broncos at Colts), Denver gets to host a homecoming as Mike Shanahan and the Redskins visit Mile High. Can the Broncos go 4-0 against the NFC-East? I hope so. Our other NFC-East friends play each other. Mikellie has already said that he was pulling for the Giants again this week. Me, too.

Last week, I posted schedules for both weeks #7 and #8, so that people wouldn't have to wait for this FanPost of KD's next page to make week #8 picks. Now, this one is up, so I'll take week #8 picks here instead (until KD's next page goes up). I will also take early picks here for week #9, in any combination - week #8 Thursday Game Only, week #8 all ten, week #9 Thursday Game Only, week #9 all ten...

If you wish to make early picks on here for either weeks #8 or #9, I ask you honor these guidelines:

  • Put what you are picking in the subject line (Week #8 - Thursday, Week #9, etc.). That will help me tremendously.
  • Make your winners bold. The easiest way is to use asterisks before and after your selection. For example, Carolina at *TAMPA BAY* will look like Carolina at TAMPA BAY; or, *Carolina* at TAMPA BAY will look like Carolina at TAMPA BAY.
  • Be sure to pick the Cowboys game. This is mandatory.
  • Once you have made your ten selections, please delete the other games. That makes my life easier when I am tabulating close to two hundred picks each week.
  • Please don't pick the Thursday night game after it has kicked off (or, worse, include it in picks that you post on Saturday or Sunday morning).
  • When KD puts up his new contest page, please stop posting picks on here and post them on KD's page. It is easier on me if only one page is actively posting picks. I will still monitor both pages and will record your picks, wherever they are posted.

*****************************************************

WEEK #8 (only thirteen games):

Thursday, October 24:

Carolina at TAMPA BAY

Sunday, October 27:

Dallas at DETROIT (mandatory; must include)

San Francisco vs JACKSONVILLE (in London)

Cleveland at KANSAS CITY

Miami at NEW ENGLAND

Buffalo at NEW ORLEANS

New York Giants at PHILADELPHIA

New York Jets at CINCINNATI

Pittsburgh at OAKLAND

Atlanta at ARIZONA

Washington at DENVER

Green Bay at MINNESOTA

Monday, October 28:

Seattle at ST. LOUIS

*****************************************************

If you went to make early picks on any or all week #9 games, here is that list.

WEEK #9 (only thirteen games):

Thursday, October 31:

Cincinnati at MIAMI

Sunday, November 3:

Kansas City at BUFFALO

Atlanta at CAROLINA

Minnesota at DALLAS (mandatory; must include)

New Orleans at NEW YORK JETS

Tennessee at ST. LOUIS

San Diego at WASHINGTON

Philadelphia at OAKLAND

Tampa Bay at SEATTLE

Baltimore at CLEVELAND

Pittsburgh at NEW ENGLAND

Indianapolis at HOUSTON

Monday, November 4

Chicago at GREEN BAY

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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