FanPost

KD's 10-for-10 - 2013 Week #8 Update

Fifty-eight new Hall of Fame members this week, a new record!

That would have been the open had the Cowboys been able to run just a few more seconds off the clock and beat the Lions. Instead, I have to grit my teeth and congratulate six perfect scores - picks which included the Lions' win over the Cowboys. Grr. They should be the ones regretting their 9-for-10s because they picked Detroit.

This week, twelve picked the Lions. Six went 10-for-10, and the other six went 9-for-10. Congratulations will come later, although I am personally more proud of the fifty-eight who went 9-for-10 with their only loss - Cowboys.

In our first week with only thirteen games, we had heavy action on ten of the games, and lighter action on the other three. In fact, forty-four of us (almost 25% of this week's players) picked EXACTLY those ten games. Thirty-eight picked the Cowboys; six picked the Lions; and the other nine were picked identically by all - Car-KC-SF-NE-NO-Cin-Den-GB-Sea.

We had six new players this week, but many missed out (early kickoff got some again?). We had 195 participants this week; 193 played 10-for-10, one made a Thursday-Only pick and failed to return; and, one failed to include the Cowboys game in his ten (only the other nine got counted). And, a couple of other players didn't accurately mark their entries, so they only got credit for what was clearly marked (one only had eight counted, and the other nine).

Here is the participation table:

Participation
Week Played This Week Missed This Week Total
1 242 0 242
2 207 49 256
3 200 60 259
4 198 67 265
5 189 80 269
6 199 80 279
7 200 90 290
8 195 101 296

Again, our individual scores are great as most of us played the same ten games and got nine right (plus the Cowboys). The other three had much less interest, which is a good thing because we missed all three. In our nine victories, we were an astounding 1527-14. So, if you played those nine games, there was at least a 99% probability that you got all nine right.

The other three? There were only 203 picks for the combined three games (average of a little over one per participant), and most of those came from those who didn't get in the Thursday game.

Here are our results this week:

Week #8 Results (Home in CAPS)
Win Winners (we're great) Lose
191 San Francisco JACKSONVILLE 1
191 NEW ORLEANS Buffalo 2
189 Green Bay MINNESOTA 0
186 DENVER Washington 3
182 KANSAS CITY Cleveland 3
181 Seattle ST. LOUIS 0
150 NEW ENGLAND Miami 0
130 CINCINNATI New York Jets 4
127 Carolina TAMPA BAY 1
Win Losers (we're bleep) Lose
12 DETROIT Dallas 181
18 OAKLAND Pittsburgh 53
19 ARIZONA Atlanta 53
14 New York Giants PHILADELPHIA 46

We are still perfect picking Jacksonville each week. Eight times we have picked them to lose, and they have lost eight times. Everyone else we have missed at least once. At the bottom of the table are the teams that we are the worst at picking. With our "correct" pick of Miami this week (picked to lose, lost), we have now gotten every team right at least twice this year.

Here's a look at how we have picked each team, each week (first letter - our pick; second letter - actual result):

Picks/Results for Each Team/Each Week
Team Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4 Wk 5 Wk 6 Wk 7 Wk 8 Wk 9 Wk 10 Wk 11 Wk 12 Wk 13 Wk 14 Wk 15 Wk 16 Wk 17 W L
Jacksonville LL LL LL LL LL LL LL LL 8 0
Denver WW WW WW WW WW WW WL WW 7 1
Kansas City WW LW WW WW WW WW WW WW 7 1
Seattle WW LW WW WW LL WW WW WW 7 1
St Louis WW LL LL LL WW LW LL LL 7 1
Green Bay LL WW WL Bye WW WW WW WW 6 1
New Orleans WW WW WW WW WW WL Bye WW 6 1
Tampa Bay WL LL LL LL Bye LL LL LL 6 1
Tennessee LW LL WW WW LL LL LL Bye 6 1
New York Giants LL LL WL LL LL LL WW LW 6 2
San Francisco WW WL WL WW WW WW WW WW 6 2
Houston WW WW WL LL LL WL LL Bye 5 2
Oakland LL WW LL LL LW LL Bye LW 5 2
Washington WL LL LL WW Bye LL LW LL 5 2
Arizona LL LW LL WW LW LL LL LW 5 3
Buffalo LL WW WL LW LL LL LW LL 5 3
Cleveland WL LL LW LW WW LL LL LL 5 3
Dallas WW WL WW WL LL WW WW WL 5 3
Philadelphia LW WL LL LL WW WW LL WL 5 3
Carolina LL LL LW Bye WL LW WW WW 4 3
Chicago LW WW WW WL LL WW WL Bye 4 3
Minnesota LL LL WL LW Bye WL LL LL 4 3
Detroit WW WL WW LW LL WW WL LW 4 4
New England WW WW WW LW WL LW WL WW 4 4
Atlanta LL WW WL WL WL Bye WW WL 3 4
Baltimore LL WW LW WL LW LL WL Bye 3 4
Indianapolis WW WL LW WW WW WL LW Bye 3 4
San Diego LL LW LL LW WL LW WW Bye 3 4
Cincinnati WL WW LW WL LW WW LW WW 3 5
New York Jets LW LL LW LL LW WL LW LL 3 5
Miami LW LW LW LL WL Bye WL LL 2 5
Pittsburgh WL LL LL WL Bye LW LW WL 2 5
Total 154 86

For the fourth week in a row, we maintain a lead the Front Page Writers. Each week, One.Cool.Customer hosts a pick-em page where all the FPWs offer picks in every game for the week. I track their consensus picks for each game and compare it to our consensus for each game. This week, our preferences, for the third week in a row, were identical to their consensus picks in all thirteen games. So, we maintain our two game lead another week.

Here is that updated table:

2013 10-for-10 Consensus vs. Front Page Writers
Week 10-for-10 Wins 10-for-10 Losses Front Page Wins Front Page Losses
1 11 5 11 5
2 11 5 12 4
3 9 7 10 6
4 9 6 7 8
5 9 5 7 7
6 10 5 10 5
7 9 6 9 6
8 9 4 9 4
Total 77 43 75 45

This was our first week with six teams having a bye and only thirteen games being played. From the first picks on my last FanPost to the early picks on KD's contest page, it was obvious that something was up. Several of you posted comments saying that there could be a huge number of 10-for-10s this past week.

It was very easy to tabulate your entries this week. It seemed that almost all were identical. Thirty-eight of you were identical, as you had these ten games and these ten winners: Car-Dal-SF-KC-NE-NO-Cin-Den-GB-Sea. Six more of you had the Lions, but had the other nine picks alike.

As a consensus, we got those nine games right. So, if the Cowboys had held on at the end, there would have been thirty-eight identical 10-for-10 entries (with Cowboys) instead of six (with Lions).

Almost no one paid any attention to the other three games until after the Thursday night game kicked off. It's just as well, as our consensus got all three lightly-picked games wrong.

I mentioned at the beginning of the article that I hate to recognize 10-for-10s on weeks that the Cowboys lose, because that means the perfect score includes picking the Cowboys to lose. I will never go 10-for-10 in a week that the Cowboys lose. Of course, I have yet to score my first 10-for-10 anyway.

Though it may be begrudging, I do need to offer congratulations to the six perfect scores this week. Three - nicomachus, nikeorlipstick, and Tennessee_Jed are new inductees into KD's Hall of Fame as this week marks their first 10-for-10. Making it for the second time is revellyre. And, two are in the lofty heights as three-time perfectionists - Aggie Man and jstaubach (the charter member of the Hall, as he was the first to ever go 10-for-10).

In this FanPost, I am only listing the six 10-for-10s and the sixty-four 9-for-10s. Our overall leader was one of the 9-for-10s. So, if you are not listed, then you lost ground this week. Why so many 9-for-10s? Well, the aforementioned thirty-eight that had the nine winners plus the Cowboys are all there. There were twelve total who picked the Lions. The other six (not the 10-for-10s) all missed one game (four of them picked the Eagles - which is its own reward) and are part of this group. Twenty others had slightly different picks, but also only missed the Cowboys.

Congratulations to lsttexas for holding onto the lead for a fifth consecutive week. However, his lead has been cut to one, and others are gaining ground as well.

Here are the top scores this week, and the top scores on the overall leaderboard.

Top Scores Through Week #8
This Week Score This Week Score 2013 Overall Score 2013 Overall Score
Aggie Man 10 mbraunginn 9 lsttexas 63 Wreck'emCowboys 57
jstaubach 10 mikemc68 9 Aggie Man 62 BigBad Joe 56
nicomachus 10 neithan20000 9 JDobermans 61 cowboy1966 56
nikeorlipstick 10 NorthStar99 9 swanhooch 61 cowboyswin 56
revellyre 10 oldboysfan 9 beastygaming 60 D_Carter 56
Tennessee_Jed 10 Panzer84 9 CowboyBaby 60 EchoEcho 56
1Bullseye 9 Rajohnnn 9 jstaubach 60 geof 56
Bertangalo 9 Realist Larry 9 Realist Larry 60 ginge159 56
bookiebuster 9 Sandmann 9 spur_for_life 60 HLCJ69 56
camrin55 9 Seatown7 9 boys.camncrew 59 hookerhome 56
CarloRue 9 since '66 9 Max2 59 I am Ironman!!! 56
castaway42 9 skinny post 9 nicomachus 59 IRONRAVEN 56
cee-los 9 Souna21 9 rhodri2112 59 jakezze01 56
ChrisMan 9 spur_for_life 9 Seatown7 59 jamesvb 56
connor.cmr 9 starbury_to_s-jaxci2000 9 Tallgrass Prairie 59 ketom1220 56
cowboy1966 9 StarloverinWNC 9 traceabides 59 One.Cool.Customer 56
CowboyBaby 9 Static 9 Useful_Idiot_ 59 Pasipple 56
CowboyNeal 9 swanhooch 9 BigHat in NewTexas 58 Sean N 56
Cowtoys 9 Switters023 9 bookiebuster 58 Souna21 56
D_Carter 9 Tallgrass Prairie 9 CarloRue 58 1Bullseye 55
Dalai Luke 9 TARHEEL PAUL 9 HonorTheStar 58 Antonio S 55
DCB* 9 The Big Jim 9 Hookem Up 58 bcomets 55
Farrah's Daddy 9 TheDemolitionDan 9 Jebediah Flibberbrush 58 Canadian Cowboy_74 55
Gabby 9 Through Thick And Thin 9 Lajitas Lava 58 CDMac24 55
HLCJ69 9 traceabides 9 mikemc68 58 CowboyinExile 55
HonorTheStar 9 Trivial 9 revellyre 58 cowdog 55
Hookem Up 9 Useful_Idiot_ 9 Tennessee_Jed 58 cwby4lf 55
IRONRAVEN 9 Witten mittens 9 Through Thick And Thin 58 letsgtld 55
JDobermans 9 wittenfan 9 Allan Uy 57 mdlusk 55
Jebediah Flibberbrush 9 YumaCactus 9 Baloo. 57 meisternance 55
j-man 9 zigg6411 9 dsmith12 57 MSM33 55
Johnny Cage 9 92 tied with 8 illcowboy 57 mushpuppy 55
KD Drummond 9 27 tied with 7 KD Drummond 57 Panzer84 55
Kegbearer 9 3 tied with 6 Mikellie 57 Portland's Cowboy fan 55
kethry1313 9 2 tied with 5 nikeorlipstick 57 Sandmann 55
ketom1220 9 1 Thursday 1 NorthStar99 57 StarloverinWNC 55
KRO 9 Rex Pfister 57 TheDemolitionDan 55
lsttexas 9 skinny post 57 Travlr 55
Max2 9 wittenfan 57 18 tied with 54

Last week, I began to list a comparison of our scores to previous years. Again, I don't have access to KD's 2010 records, but I can provide that comparison to 2011 and 2012. However, the different bye schedules, and the different week-to-week difficulties make a direct comparison fairly difficult.

Because of the way I maintain my records, it would be very time consuming to recreate 2011 and 2012 leaderboards after week #8. Rather than do that, I will name some of the top scores here, and give the links to my FanPosts from those weeks, so you can see my tables from 2011 - Week #8 and 2012 - Week #8.

Top scores after week #8 in 2011:

  • 62 - qbfannn (CowboyBaby)
  • 61 - Jebediah Flibberbrush
  • 60 - illcowboy
  • 58 - BishopWest

Top scores after week #8 in 2012:

  • 57 - D_Carter
  • 56 - BishopWest, CowboyBaby, ziggy 19
  • 55 - illcowboy, j-man, KD Drummond, Tennessee_Jed

I have begun posting two weeks' worth of schedules each week. That way - like this week - you won't have to wait for my FanPost or KD's new page to make the next week's picks.

This week, I am very late with this FanPost, and many of you took advantage to post week #9 early picks on the previous FanPost. I am leaving the picks on here, but I do ask that you make your picks on KD's page, and your comments for me on here.

If you wish to make early picks on here for either weeks #9 or #10, I ask you honor these guidelines:

  • Put what you are picking in the subject line (Week #9 - Thursday, Week #10, etc.). That will help me tremendously.
  • Make your winners bold. The easiest way is to use asterisks before and after your selection. For example, Chicago at *GREEN BAY* will look like Chicago at GREEN BAY; or, *Chicago* at GREEN BAY will look like Chicago at TAMPA BAY.
  • Be sure to pick the Cowboys game. This is mandatory.
  • Once you have made your ten selections, please delete the other games. That makes my life easier when I am tabulating close to two hundred picks each week.
  • Please don't pick the Thursday night game after it has kicked off (or, worse, include it in picks that you post on Saturday or Sunday morning).
  • When KD puts up his new contest page, please stop posting picks on here and post them on KD's page. It is easier on me if only one page is actively posting picks. I will still monitor both pages and will record your picks, wherever they are posted.

*****************************************************

WEEK #9 (only thirteen games):

Thursday, October 31:

Cincinnati at MIAMI

Sunday, November 3:

Kansas City at BUFFALO

Atlanta at CAROLINA

Minnesota at DALLAS (mandatory; must include)

New Orleans at NEW YORK JETS

Tennessee at ST. LOUIS

San Diego at WASHINGTON

Philadelphia at OAKLAND

Tampa Bay at SEATTLE

Baltimore at CLEVELAND

Pittsburgh at NEW ENGLAND

Indianapolis at HOUSTON

Monday, November 4

Chicago at GREEN BAY

*****************************************************

If you wish to make early picks on any or all week #10 games, here is that list:

WEEK #10 (only fourteen games):

Thursday, November 7:

Washington at MINNESOTA

Sunday, November 10:

Seattle at ATLANTA

Cincinnati at BALTIMORE

Detroit at CHICAGO

Philadelphia at GREEN BAY

St. Louis at INDIANAPOLIS

Oakland at NEW YORK GIANTS

Buffalo at PITTSBURGH

Jackonville at TENNESSEE

Carolina at SAN FRANCISCO

Houston at ARIZONA

Denver at SAN DIEGO

Dallas at NEW ORLEANS (mandatory; must include)

Monday, November 11

Miami at TAMPA BAY

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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