FanPost

KD's 10-for-10 - 2013 Week #12 Update

Happy Thanksgiving to all. I hope you availed yourselves of the opportunity to make your picks early for this holiday weekend's games. If not, then jump over to my last FanPost, which includes my Holiday Bonus #1. You can post picks there now for both this weekend's games and next weekend.

Next week, I plan to post my Holiday Bonus #2, which will cover weeks #15-17. That should give everyone ample opportunity to post picks no matter their travels, travails, and schedule.

KD's 10-for-10 has gotten bigger and better each year, and we marked another milestone this week.

  • 2010 - KD began 10-for-10 as a FanPost series with 30-50 participants per week; one 10-for-10
  • 2011 - 10-for-10 moved to the front page and immediately doubled in size; I signed on as volunteer scorekeeper and have tried to help a little ever since; twenty-four 10-for-10s
  • 2012 - more than 200 played in week #1, a record for participation in any week; two record weeks for 10-for-10s, and the Hall of Fame up to ninety-nine members
  • 2013 - 242 week #1 players (another record); Hall of Fame over a hundred members; new players every week

This week, Dezepticon became our three hundredth participant in this season's 10-for-10. He was also a newbie, as his entrance was his second comment on BTB. I invite you to go to KD's week #12 contest page and "double-rec" and comment on Dezepticon - newbie and being number three hundred.

Thank you all for being part of KD's largest 10-for-10 group - now over three hundred participants, and averaging just under two hundred each week.

Here is the participation table:

Participation
Week Played This Week Missed This Week Total
1 242 0 242
2 207 49 256
3 200 60 259
4 198 67 265
5 189 80 269
6 199 80 279
7 200 90 290
8 195 100 295
9 186 110 296
10 176 122 297
11 157 141 298
12 158 143 301

For the second time in the brief history of 10-for-10 (insert Ray Scott voice), "we have a tie". Ray Scott, for all you youngsters, was a CBS NFL announcer during the 1960s. Back then, announcers had a close affiliation with certain teams, and Ray Scott was identified with the Packers. I will never forget his gravelly voice, late in games when one team would dramatically score to tie the game, and he would say, "Ladies and gentlemen, we have a tie."

This one didn't hurt, because I didn't include Minnesota-Green Bay in my picks this week. Now the last one did. The Rams-49ers tie a little over a year ago cost me a 10-for-10. Here's how ties are scored on 10-for-10:

  • 66 picked the Packers to win; they didn't win (you lose)
  • 13 picked the Vikings to win; they didn't win either (you also lose)
  • all 79 "failed to win" = lose

We had four big wins (triple-digits picked the winner, single-digits picked the loser), balanced by three similar losses. But, with the tie factored in as a big loss (all who picked the game lost), we actually had a losing record (773-802), even though we picked seven winners out of fourteen games.

Here are our results this week:

Week #12 Results (Home in CAPS)
Win Winners (we're great) Lose
141 Carolina MIAMI 8
135 Dallas NEW YORK GIANTS 23
135 San Francisco WASHINGTON 1
106 New Orleans ATLANTA 1
70 BALTIMORE New York Jets 21
62 Pittsburgh CLEVELAND 26
Win Losers (we're bleep) Lose
3 Tampa Bay DETROIT 148
6 San Diego KANSAS CITY 130
9 Jacksonville HOUSTON 115
16 NEW ENGLAND Denver 85
31 ARIZONA Indianapolis 73
20 ST LOUIS Chicago 66
Win Pretty Even (we're indecisive) Lose
39 Tennessee OAKLAND 26
Pick Ties - all lose (we're McNabbed) Pick
66 GREEN BAY Minnesota 13

I used my next chart to - almost - look like a genius this past week. I noticed that we had mis-picked Miami all but one of the past seven weeks. Our consensus heavily picked them to lose, so I picked them to win. However, if I had looked a little harder, we have only gotten Miami "right" twice this season - in week #4 and week #8. This was week #12, and yes, we again got them right (picked them to lose, and they lost).

Here's a complete look at how we have picked each team, each week (first letter - our pick; second letter - actual result; again, a tie counts as a loss):

Picks/Results for Each Team/Each Week
Team Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4 Wk 5 Wk 6 Wk 7 Wk 8 Wk 9 Wk 10 Wk 11 Wk 12 Wk 13 Wk 14 Wk 15 Wk 16 Wk 17 W L
Seattle WW LW WW WW LL WW WW WW WW WW WW Bye 10 1
Denver WW WW WW WW WW WW WL WW Bye WW WW WL 9 2
Jacksonville LL LL LL LL LL LL LL LL Bye LW LL LW 9 2
Kansas City WW LW WW WW WW WW WW WW WW Bye LL WL 9 2
New York Giants LL LL WL LL LL LL WW LW Bye WW WW LL 9 2
Tennessee LW LL WW WW LL LL LL Bye WW WL LL WW 9 2
New Orleans WW WW WW WW WW WL Bye WW WL LW WW WW 8 3
San Francisco WW WL WL WW WW WW WW WW Bye WL LL WW 8 3
St Louis WW LL LL LL WW LW LL LL LL LW Bye LW 8 3
Arizona LL LW LL WW LW LL LL LW Bye WW WW LW 7 4
Buffalo LL WW WL LW LL LL LW LL LL LL LW Bye 7 4
Carolina LL LL LW Bye WL LW WW WW WW LW WW WW 7 4
Cleveland WL LL LW LW WW LL LL LL LW Bye LL LL 7 4
Dallas WW WL WW WL LL WW WW WL WW WL Bye WW 7 4
Green Bay LL WW WL Bye WW WW WW WW WL WL LL WT 7 4
Houston WW WW WL LL LL WL LL Bye LL LL WL WL 7 4
Oakland LL WW LL LL LW LL Bye LW WL LL LW LL 7 4
Tampa Bay WL LL LL LL Bye LL LL LL LL LW LW LW 7 4
Washington WL LL LL WW Bye LL LW LL LW WL LL LL 7 4
Atlanta LL WW WL WL WL Bye WW WL LL LL WL LL 6 5
Chicago LW WW WW WL LL WW WL Bye LW LL WW WL 6 5
Minnesota LL LL WL LW Bye WL LL LL LL LW LL LT 6 5
New England WW WW WW LW WL LW WL WW WW Bye LL LW 6 5
Philadelphia LW WL LL LL WW WW LL WL LW LW WW Bye 6 5
Baltimore LL WW LW WL LW LL WL Bye WL LW LL WW 5 6
Detroit WW WL WW LW LL WW WL LW Bye WW WL WL 5 6
Indianapolis WW WL LW WW WW WL LW Bye WW WL WW WL 5 6
Pittsburgh WL LL LL WL Bye LW LW WL LL WW LW WW 5 6
Cincinnati WL WW LW WL LW WW LW WW WL WL WW Bye 4 7
New York Jets LW LL LW LL LW WL LW LL LW Bye WL LL 4 7
San Diego LL LW LL LW WL LW WW Bye WL LL WL LW 4 7
Miami LW LW LW LL WL Bye WL LL LW WL LW LL 3 8
Total 214 138

Each week, One.Cool.Customer hosts a pick-em page (week #12 picks/week #13 picks) where all the Front Page Writers offer picks in every game for the week. I track their consensus picks for each game and compare it to our consensus for each game. This week, they gained a game on us. We had thirteen identical preferences, but they favored Arizona where we favored Indianapolis. So, our two-game lead is now shrunk to one.

Here is that updated table:

2013 10-for-10 Consensus vs. Front Page Writers
Week 10-for-10 Wins 10-for-10 Losses Front Page Wins Front Page Losses
1 11 5 11 5
2 11 5 12 4
3 9 7 10 6
4 9 6 7 8
5 9 5 7 7
6 10 5 10 5
7 9 6 9 6
8 9 4 9 4
9 7 6 6 7
10 6 8 7 7
11 10 5 10 5
12 7 7 8 6
Total 107 69 106 70

I mentioned earlier the three games where each had fewer than ten right (single-digit) and more than a hundred (triple-digit). Most of us missed at least one of the three games; many of us missed all three; and, one - PhiAlphaHalos - hit the trifecta, picking Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, and San Diego.

Only one person, IRONRAVEN, missed two games. His 8-for-10 was the best of the week. Eleven more scored 7-for-10. We had close to a third of the field finish 6-for-10 or better; another third at 5-for-10; and the other third finish worse.

I also need to commend TheDemolitionDan. He missed the early games' kickoffs, and submitted just the five late/night games. He went a perfect 5-for-5 and was the only one to not miss a game. His score beat fifty-two others who played all ten games.

We had a tie for the overall lead this past week, and I noticed that both lsttexas and Aggie Man picked the same games. Nine of their picks were identical as well, and their only discrepancy was Cowboys (lsttexas) and Giants (Aggie Man). So, by picking the Cowboys, lsttexas has regained the overall lead.

None of the leaders did particularly well (lsttexas was part of a large group at 4-for-10), so the leaderboard is more tightly bunched.

Here are the top scores this week, and the top scores on the overall leaderboard.

Top Scores Through Week #12
This Week Score This Week Score 2013 Overall Score 2013 Overall Score
IRONRAVEN 8 CowboyBaby 5 lsttexas 87 skinny post 78
camrin55 7 CowboysBarry 5 Aggie Man 86 Travlr 78
DoomsDay Dub 7 Dezepticon 5 JDobermans 86 1Bullseye 77
Howleyesque 7 dsel 5 jstaubach 85 ChrisMan 77
KD Drummond 7 dsmith12 5 Max2 85 cowboyswin 77
meisternance 7 EchoEcho 5 CarloRue 84 ginge159 77
One.Cool.Customer 7 Enja 5 nicomachus 84 illcowboy 77
PhiAlphaHalos 7 Farrah's Daddy 5 Wreck'emCowboys 84 jamesvb 77
Tallgrass Prairie 7 ginge159 5 bookiebuster 83 ketom1220 77
Witten mittens 7 HLCJ69 5 CowboyBaby 83 letsgtld 77
Wreck'emCowboys 7 Hookem Up 5 Jebediah Flibberbrush 83 MSM33 77
ziggy19 7 ibleedcowboyblue 5 Realist Larry 83 Rajohnnn 77
Allan Uy 6 jazzbo251 5 revellyre 83 scotscowboyfan 77
Benthere 6 Jdewey 5 IRONRAVEN 82 Specific 77
bookiebuster 6 JDobermans 5 One.Cool.Customer 82 Trent Schoneweis 77
BoydNation 6 j-man 5 swanhooch 82 zigg6411 77
Dalai Luke 6 Joe21 5 Tallgrass Prairie 82 Allan Uy 76
damnarab2 6 jordanch68 5 beastygaming 81 behind.enemylines 76
DCB* 6 jstaubach 5 BigHat in NewTexas 81 BoydNation 76
dentltek 6 Junkyard Dog 5 cowboy1966 81 Canadian Cowboy_74 76
Gabby 6 k@s! 5 HLCJ69 81 Cowboy Joe 76
Hobbes42 6 KarlPopperFan 5 Lajitas Lava 81 KD Drummond 76
hookerhome 6 Lajitas Lava 5 Seatown7 81 Mikellie 76
iidacii 6 Longdistance fan 5 Through Thick And Thin 81 StarloverinWNC 76
jayrosser27 6 lsttexas 5 Useful_Idiot_ 81 Vector_41 76
Jebediah Flibberbrush 6 makemyday 5 boys.camncrew 80 cee-los 75
letsgtld 6 Max2 5 HonorTheStar 80 cwby4lf 75
LoboTX 6 mik888 5 Hookem Up 80 Gabby 75
MSM33 6 Mikellie 5 mikemc68 80 jayrosser27 75
NCHeelsBoysFan 6 mikemc68 5 nikeorlipstick 80 j-man 75
nicomachus 6 Mikhaili 5 NorthStar99 80 mik888 75
Realist Larry 6 milehightexan 5 TheDemolitionDan 80 Mikhaili 75
Rome One 6 mushpuppy 5 Yellowbeard 80 MUTTS 75
Scurrah Jurrah 6 Nord15 5 CDMac24 79 Rex Pfister 75
Seatown7 6 Oh Hai Doggy 5 DCB* 79 Sandmann 75
since '66 6 Rajohnnn 5 lucke 79 traceabides 75
slowmotion80 6 Rex Pfister 5 Oh Hai Doggy 79 Witten mittens 75
Smax17177 6 scotscowboyfan 5 Sean N 79 Babygirl71 74
TwoBitWhackJob 6 skinny post 5 Souna21 79 Bertangalo 74
Vector_41 6 Souna21 5 spur_for_life 79 BigBad Joe 74
Yellowbeard 6 Specific 5 Tennessee_Jed 79 cjbrit 74
AnderJ86 5 StarloverinWNC 5 camrin55 78 CowboysBarry 74
Babygirl71 5 swanhooch 5 Dalai Luke 78 cowdog 74
BigBad Joe 5 Switters023 5 dsmith12 78 damnarab2 74
BigHat in NewTexas 5 TheDemolitionDan 5 EchoEcho 78 Enja 74
BoyfromOz 5 thepainster 5 geof 78 hookerhome 74
Canadian Cowboy_74 5 Through Thick And Thin 5 Howleyesque 78 LoboTX 74
carguy102 5 traceabides 5 iidacii 78 Panzer84 74
CarloRue 5 Travlr 5 jakezze01 78 Scurrah Jurrah 74
CDMac24 5 VictoryorDeath 5 mdlusk 78 Switters023 74
ChrisMan 5 wittenfan 5 meisternance 78 AnderJ86 73
cjbrit 5 YumaCactus 5 mushpuppy 78 Smax17177 73
cowboy1966 5 zigg6411 5 Pasipple 78 wittenfan 73

You requested, and I have begun to list a comparison of our scores to previous years. Again, I don't have access to KD's 2010 records, but I can provide that comparison to 2011 and 2012. However, the different bye schedules, and the different week-to-week difficulties make a direct comparison fairly difficult.

Because of the way I maintain my records, it would be very time consuming to recreate 2011 and 2012 leaderboards after week #11. Rather than do that, I will name some of the top scores here, and give the links to my FanPosts from those weeks, so you can see my tables from 2011 - Week #12 and 2012 - Week #12.

Week #12 in 2011 was the stars-aligned Thanksgiving weekend when eight games that all appeared to be near-unanimous losses all turned into wins. Read my account of that week. Jebediah Flibberbrush took the overall lead with one of the nineteen 10-for-10s and was the first to 90.

Top scores after week #12 in 2011:

  • 90 - Jebediah Flibberbrush
  • 89 - illcowboy
  • 88 - wittenfan
  • 87 - BishopWest, Hookem Up, and qbfannn (CowboyBaby)
  • 86 - ChiaCrck (Archie Barberio) and mdlusk
  • 85 - Pnut Gallery and ziggy19

Week #12 in 2012 was much less rosy. This Thanksgiving had a Cowboys loss, no 10-for-10s, and CowboyBaby widening his lead to two games with only a 7-for-10 (best that week was 9-for-10).

Top scores after week #12 in 2012:

  • 90 - CowboyBaby
  • 88 - BishopWest, ChrisMan, D_Carter, and Hawkeye101 (Yellowbeard)
  • 87 - j-man, KD Drummond, and mdlusk
  • 86 - Aggie Man, jstaubach, Rex Prister, shainyc, and ziggy19

I will not take early picks on this or my other weekly FanPosts. You may post picks for Thanksgiving, the rest of week #13, and early picks for week #14 on my current FanPost (with Holiday Bonus #1).

Happy Thanksgiving to all.

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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