FanPost

KD's 10-for-10 - 2013 Week #9 Update

Happy Veterans' Day Weekend. This Monday, on the ninety-fifth anniversary of Armistice Day, we celebrate those who serve and who have served. Both my father (who passed away in February this year) and my wife's father (still going strong at ninety-one) served in World War II.

With apologies to all who have served in the military for this analogy - we took some hits this week, but our flag still stands. In fact, when all the dust settled, we can see how much worse it could have been. There were three games that almost everyone missed, three games that most missed, and three more that would have wiped us out if our picks hadn't rallied to win.

These are the highs and lows of 10-for-10. Last week, we were seconds from fifty-eight 10-for-10s. This week was... different. The unpredictable nature of each week makes each one unique, interesting, and exciting.

We had two new players this week, but lost some - probably to another early kickoff. I know, two tried to post late, but KD doesn't allow late picks after the Cowboys kick off. We had 186 participants this week; all played 10-for-10, and, there was only one irregularity (picked the Dolphins about two minutes after the Thursday game ended).

Here is the participation table:

Participation
Week Played This Week Missed This Week Total
1 242 0 242
2 207 49 256
3 200 60 259
4 198 67 265
5 189 80 269
6 199 80 279
7 200 90 290
8 195 100 295
9 186 111 297

As I mentioned in the open, our scores are down this week. We had six consensus losses; three were bad, and three were very bad. However, our consensus survived three other near-losses (Cowboys to Vikings, Seahawks to Bucs, and Colts to Texans). This was not our worst week. In fact, if you participated, you shouldn't be damaged at all. Most of the field hit our average for the week - 6-for-10. The best scores were only two games better, and the worst were only two games worse.

However, there were thirteen games this week. Our six consensus losses were balanced by seven consensus wins (including the three squeakers).

Here are our results this week:

Week #9 Results (Home in CAPS)
Win Winners (we're great) Lose
186 DALLAS Minnesota 0
185 SEATTLE Tampa Bay 0
164 NEW ENGLAND Pittsburgh 1
159 Indianapolis HOUSTON 7
156 Kansas City BUFFALO 16
148 CAROLINA Atlanta 5
68 Tennessee ST. LOUIS 16
Win Losers (we're bleep) Lose
5 NEW YORK JETS New Orleans 175
1 Chicago GREEN BAY 170
4 MIAMI Cincinnati 115
7 Philadelphia OAKLAND 91
15 WASHINGTON San Diego 81
22 CLEVELAND Baltimore 62

We're still perfect picking Jacksonville (they were on their bye; we couldn't get that wrong, could we?), but we missed a couple that we almost never get wrong (future opponent Green Bay, and next opponent New Orleans).

Here's a look at how we have picked each team, each week (first letter - our pick; second letter - actual result):

Picks/Results for Each Team/Each Week
Team Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4 Wk 5 Wk 6 Wk 7 Wk 8 Wk 9 Wk 10 Wk 11 Wk 12 Wk 13 Wk 14 Wk 15 Wk 16 Wk 17 W L
Jacksonville LL LL LL LL LL LL LL LL Bye 8 0
Kansas City WW LW WW WW WW WW WW WW WW 8 1
Seattle WW LW WW WW LL WW WW WW WW 8 1
St Louis WW LL LL LL WW LW LL LL LL 8 1
Denver WW WW WW WW WW WW WL WW Bye 7 1
Tampa Bay WL LL LL LL Bye LL LL LL LL 7 1
Tennessee LW LL WW WW LL LL LL Bye WW 7 1
Green Bay LL WW WL Bye WW WW WW WW WL 6 2
Houston WW WW WL LL LL WL LL Bye LL 6 2
New Orleans WW WW WW WW WW WL Bye WW WL 6 2
New York Giants LL LL WL LL LL LL WW LW Bye 6 2
San Francisco WW WL WL WW WW WW WW WW Bye 6 2
Buffalo LL WW WL LW LL LL LW LL LL 6 3
Dallas WW WL WW WL LL WW WW WL WW 6 3
Arizona LL LW LL WW LW LL LL LW Bye 5 3
Carolina LL LL LW Bye WL LW WW WW WW 5 3
Minnesota LL LL WL LW Bye WL LL LL LL 5 3
Oakland LL WW LL LL LW LL Bye LW WL 5 3
Washington WL LL LL WW Bye LL LW LL LW 5 3
Cleveland WL LL LW LW WW LL LL LL LW 5 4
New England WW WW WW LW WL LW WL WW WW 5 4
Philadelphia LW WL LL LL WW WW LL WL LW 5 4
Atlanta LL WW WL WL WL Bye WW WL LL 4 4
Chicago LW WW WW WL LL WW WL Bye LW 4 4
Detroit WW WL WW LW LL WW WL LW Bye 4 4
Indianapolis WW WL LW WW WW WL LW Bye WW 4 4
Baltimore LL WW LW WL LW LL WL Bye WL 3 5
Pittsburgh WL LL LL WL Bye LW LW WL LL 3 5
San Diego LL LW LL LW WL LW WW Bye WL 3 5
Cincinnati WL WW LW WL LW WW LW WW WL 3 6
New York Jets LW LL LW LL LW WL LW LL LW 3 6
Miami LW LW LW LL WL Bye WL LL LW 2 6
Total 168 98

For the fifth week in a row, we maintain a lead the Front Page Writers. Each week, One.Cool.Customer hosts a pick-em page where all the FPWs offer picks in every game for the week. I track their consensus picks for each game and compare it to our consensus for each game. This week, even though we had a bad week, they were one worse (picked the Rams when we picked the Titans). So, this week, we not just maintain, we build our lead.

Here is that updated table:

2013 10-for-10 Consensus vs. Front Page Writers
Week 10-for-10 Wins 10-for-10 Losses Front Page Wins Front Page Losses
1 11 5 11 5
2 11 5 12 4
3 9 7 10 6
4 9 6 7 8
5 9 5 7 7
6 10 5 10 5
7 9 6 9 6
8 9 4 9 4
9 7 6 6 7
Total 84 49 81 52

This was our second week with six teams having a bye and only thirteen games being played. Last week, everything was easy; everyone picked the same games; and, if the Cowboys had won, we would have had 30% of the field go 10-for-10.

This week was a little different. From the first game when we jumped on Cincinnati through Monday night when we almost unanimously picked the Packers, it was just a wee bit harder. We still had nine games that almost everyone played, and picked the same way: Cin-KC-Car-Dal-NO-Sea-NE-Ind-GB.

Unfortunately for us, three of those heavy favorites lost. 115 had their first loss before Sunday as they picked the Bengals on Thursday night. No one escaped the Saints losing to the Jets. When that game ended, everyone had at least one loss. After Monday night, everyone had at least two losses.

It could have been worse - we either unanimously or heavily had Dallas, Seattle, and Indianapolis. All three escaped defeat with narrow victories (Seahawks and Colts overcame three-score deficits).

Some had as many as six losses. The four games that had less traffic - we missed three of them. Our scores this week run like a bell curve - over half of the field (ninety-five) had the median score of 6-for-10. Forty-nine did better, and forty-two did worse.

In an e-conversation with KD Tuesday morning, he asked if we had ever done so poorly. I had to look it up. Yes. In 2012-06 (my shorthand for week #6 of the 2012 season), we only went 4-for-14 as a consensus. Our median score was 4-for-10, and nine actually went 1-for-10. Here's a link to my FanPost that summarized our worst-ever week on 10-for-10.

In this FanPost, I try to list only the top weekly scores and the top overall scores.If I included the 6-for-10s, then my "top" scores would include the top 85% of the field. So, I am only including the top scores this week (fewer than normal). Look to KD's next page for the complete leaderboard. If you can't search and find your picks to see how you did, then ask me (either on here or in an email), and I'll tell you what you scored this week.

Since our overall leader was one of those with 6-for-10 (not listed this week), everyone listed in this week (with 8-for-10 or 7-for-10) gained ground. Everyone else stayed put or lost ground.

Congratulations to lsttexas for holding onto the lead for a sixth consecutive week. However, his lead is still only one, and it's getting tighter at the top.

Here are the top scores this week, and the top scores on the overall leaderboard.

Top Scores Through Week #9
This Week Score This Week Score 2013 Overall Score 2013 Overall Score
bookiebuster 8 LoboTX 7 lsttexas 69 revellyre 64
jakezze01 8 lucke 7 Aggie Man 68 Seatown7 64
Rome One 8 makemyday 7 JDobermans 67 Tennessee_Jed 64
9_to_88 all day 7 mdlusk 7 swanhooch 67 traceabides 64
AnderJ86 7 mikemc68 7 beastygaming 66 Allan Uy 63
bcomets 7 Mikhaili 7 bookiebuster 66 Baloo. 63
behind.enemylines 7 nicomachus 7 jstaubach 66 dsmith12 63
Benthere 7 Oh Hai Doggy 7 nicomachus 66 ketom1220 63
CarloRue 7 oldboysfan 7 Realist Larry 66 Mikellie 63
castaway42 7 One.Cool.Customer 7 spur_for_life 66 NorthStar99 63
Chad Loveland 7 Panzer84 7 Tallgrass Prairie 66 One.Cool.Customer 63
ChrisMan 7 PhiAlphaHalos 7 boys.camncrew 65 skinny post 63
cjbrit 7 Psycho Star 7 CarloRue 65 Wreck'emCowboys 63
CowboyNeal 7 Sandmann 7 CowboyBaby 65 18 tied with 62
cproctor6 7 Scurrah Jurrah 7 Max2 65 20 tied with 61
damnarab2 7 since '66 7 mikemc68 65 19 tied with 60
DCB* 7 sirjason22 7 Through Thick And Thin 65 17 tied with 59
gabrielau23 7 Tallgrass Prairie 7 Useful_Idiot_ 65 11 tied with 58
iidacii 7 TheDemolitionDan 7 BigHat in NewTexas 64 8 tied with 57
illcowboy 7 Through Thick And Thin 7 HonorTheStar 64 7 tied with 56
jockmeister 7 Trent Schoneweis 7 Hookem Up 64 5 tied with 55
Johnny Cage 7 True Blue-liever 7 illcowboy 64 5 tied with 54
jordanch68 7 TwoBitWhackJob 7 jakezze01 64 5 tied with 53
Kegbearer 7 YumaCactus 7 Jebediah Flibberbrush 64 2 tied with 52
ketom1220 7 95 tied with 6 Lajitas Lava 64 4 tied with 51

You requested, and I have begun to list a comparison of our scores to previous years. Again, I don't have access to KD's 2010 records, but I can provide that comparison to 2011 and 2012. However, the different bye schedules, and the different week-to-week difficulties make a direct comparison fairly difficult. For example, in 2011, CowboyBaby (then known as qbfannn) led after week #9 with 67; last year, he was tied for the lead with 65; and, this year, he has 65. However, lsttexas is on a record-setting pace, with 69. CowboyBaby has the same score as last year, but he is four back and tied for twelfth, not tied for the lead like last year.

Because of the way I maintain my records, it would be very time consuming to recreate 2011 and 2012 leaderboards after week #9. Rather than do that, I will name some of the top scores here, and give the links to my FanPosts from those weeks, so you can see my tables from 2011 - Week #9 and 2012 - Week #9.

Top scores after week #9 in 2011:

  • 67 - qbfannn (CowboyBaby)
  • 66 - illcowboy, Jebediah Flibberbrush
  • 64 - BishopWest
  • 63 - mdlusk, scotscowboyfan, wittenfan, ziggy 19

Top scores after week #9 in 2012:

  • 65 - BishopWest, CowboyBaby, D_Carter
  • 64 - KD Drummond, ziggy 19
  • 63 - ChrisMan, Hawkeye101 (Yellowbeard), j-man, Tennessee_Jed, Travlr

Oops moment - as I have been telling and re-telling how Rex Pfister first got his "accidental" 10-for-10, I have improperly told the story (something my wife constantly accuses me of doing). I have been stating that his first 10-for-10 came when he accidentally picked Philadelphia instead of Dallas. Well, wash my dirty mouth out with soap. It was Dirty Birds, but not the Eagles. Read the 2012-09 FanPost and you will see a fresher telling of that story of Rex and three others who scored 10-for-10s from the Cowboys' loss to the Falcons (back when they always lost on Sunday Night Football). Apologies, Rex, for getting the wrong Dirty Birds in my story.

I have begun posting two weeks' worth of schedules each week. That way - like this week - you won't have to wait for my FanPost or KD's new page to make the next week's picks.

After three consecutive "no-grace" weeks, due to early Cowboys games, you have a respite. Cowboys are on NBC Sunday Night Football this week, and off in week #11. Grace returns this week!

If you wish to make early picks on here for either weeks #10 or #11, I ask you honor these guidelines:

  • Put what you are picking in the subject line (Week #10 - Thursday, Week #11, etc.). That will help me tremendously.
  • Make your winners bold. The easiest way is to use asterisks before and after your selection. For example, Dallas at *NEW ORLEANS* will look like Dallas at NEW ORLEANS; or, *Dallas* at NEW ORLEANS will look like Dallas at TAMPA BAY.
  • Be sure to pick the Cowboys game. This is mandatory.[EXCEPTION - week #11 is the Cowboys' bye, so no mandatory pick in week #11]
  • Once you have made your ten selections, please delete the other games. That makes my life easier when I am tabulating close to two hundred picks each week.
  • Please don't pick the Thursday night game after it has kicked off (or, worse, include it in picks that you post on Saturday or Sunday morning).
  • When KD puts up his new contest page, please stop posting picks on here and post them on KD's page. It is easier on me if only one page is actively posting picks. However, I will still monitor both pages and will record your picks, wherever they are posted. So, there is no need to double-post.

*****************************************************

WEEK #10 (only fourteen games):

Thursday, November 7:

Washington at MINNESOTA

Sunday, November 10:

Seattle at ATLANTA

Cincinnati at BALTIMORE

Detroit at CHICAGO

Philadelphia at GREEN BAY

St. Louis at INDIANAPOLIS

Oakland at NEW YORK GIANTS

Buffalo at PITTSBURGH

Jacksonville at TENNESSEE

Carolina at SAN FRANCISCO

Houston at ARIZONA

Denver at SAN DIEGO

Dallas at NEW ORLEANS (mandatory; must include)

Monday, November 11

Miami at TAMPA BAY

*****************************************************

If you wish to make early picks on any or all week #11 games, here is that list:

WEEK #11 (only fifteen games):

Dallas bye week (no mandatory pick this week)

Thursday, November 14:

Indianapolis at TENNESSEE

Sunday, November 17:

New York Jets at BUFFALO

Baltimore at CHICAGO

Cleveland at CINCINNATI

Oakland at HOUSTON

Arizona at JACKSONVILLE

Washington at PHILADELPHIA

Detroit at PITTSBURGH

Atlanta at TAMPA BAY

San Diego at MIAMI

San Francisco at NEW ORLEANS

Green Bay at NEW YORK GIANTS

Minnesota at SEATTLE

Kansas City at DENVER

Monday, November 18

New England at CAROLINA

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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