FanPost

KD's 10-for-10 - 2013 Week #14 Update

We had a historic moment in our midst, and then the balloon popped in icy Chicago. We were a Cowboys' win away from our first ever back-to-back 10-for-10s - oh, along with control of the division, #3 seed in the playoffs with sights set on a first-round bye.

Bleep!

After averaging almost 200 per week for the first ten weeks, a small slide (in the 150s the past four weeks), dropped our average per week to just under 190. We always tend to lose some between Thanksgiving and Christmas, as family trips or the disruption in routine cause difficulty in getting picks in on time. Also, many who see themselves hopelessly out of the running for the overall championship blow off the last weeks and don't continue to strive weekly for a perfect 10-for-10.

Many took advantage of the first Holiday Bonus to post Thanksgiving picks early, along with picks for this week. We had 148 participants for the second week in a row. We continue to add new first-time players each week. The new ones this week offset the regulars that were missing in action.

Here is the participation table:

Participation
Week Played This Week Missed This Week Total
1 242 0 242
2 207 49 256
3 200 60 259
4 198 67 265
5 189 80 269
6 199 80 279
7 200 90 290
8 195 100 295
9 186 110 296
10 176 122 297
11 157 141 298
12 158 143 301
13 155 147 302
14 155 150 305

The weather outside was frightful, as many of the early games were played in some form of winter precipitation. Two of our solid picks needed miraculous turns of events at the ends of their games to salvage victory from sure defeat. Two games only had a handful of players (both narrow losses by our consensus). And, thanks to those two miracle finishes (Patriots and Ravens), we ended up with ten solid wins.

Alas, those ten wins didn't include the Cowboys. I'll have more to say about that in a moment.

Here are our results this week:

Week #14 Results (Home in CAPS)
Win Winners (we're great) Lose
152 NEW ENGLAND Cleveland 0
151 DENVER Tennessee 1
143 Kansas City WASHINGTON 0
125 BALTIMORE Minnesota 2
110 SAN DIEGO New York Giants 4
109 ARIZONA St. Louis 5
80 CINCINNATI Indianapolis 8
70 NEW ORLEANS Carolina 17
50 TAMPA BAY Buffalo 10
26 GREEN BAY Atlanta 13
Win Losers (we're bleep) Lose
7 CHICAGO Dallas 148
15 PHILADELPHIA Detroit 74
10 Miami PITTSBURGH 69
15 SAN FRANCISCO Seattle 55
Win Pretty Even (we're indecisive) Lose
18 NEW YORK JETS Oakland 20
14 JACKSONVILLE Houston 16

For the third week in a row, I read the following chart too literally and followed it too closely. And, it was the same team - Miami - that got me again. We had gotten them right three times all year - picked them to lose, and they lost - in weeks #4, 8, and 12. Each time we picked them to win, they lost. So, I played my "super genius" card, noticed that we were picking Miami to win, and picked them to lose. Bleep! I was confident this week that South Beach headed to ice and snow wouldn't stand a chance. Bleep again!

With our miss of Seattle (picking them to win, but they lost to the 49ers), we have now mis-picked every team at least twice.

Here's a complete look at how we have picked each team, each week (first letter - our pick; second letter - actual result; again, a tie counts as a loss):

Picks/Results for Each Team/Each Week
Team Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4 Wk 5 Wk 6 Wk 7 Wk 8 Wk 9 Wk 10 Wk 11 Wk 12 Wk 13 Wk 14 Wk 15 Wk 16 Wk 17 W L
Denver WW WW WW WW WW WW WL WW Bye WW WW WL WW WW 11 2
Kansas City WW LW WW WW WW WW WW WW WW Bye LL WL LL WW 11 2
New York Giants LL LL WL LL LL LL WW LW Bye WW WW LL WW LL 11 2
Seattle WW LW WW WW LL WW WW WW WW WW WW Bye WW WL 11 2
Tennessee LW LL WW WW LL LL LL Bye WW WL LL WW LL LL 11 2
New Orleans WW WW WW WW WW WL Bye WW WL LW WW WW LL WW 10 3
St Louis WW LL LL LL WW LW LL LL LL LW Bye LW LL LL 10 3
Carolina LL LL LW Bye WL LW WW WW WW LW WW WW WW LL 9 4
Green Bay LL WW WL Bye WW WW WW WW WL WL LL WT LL WW 9 4
Jacksonville LL LL LL LL LL LL LL LL Bye LW LL LW LW LW 9 4
San Francisco WW WL WL WW WW WW WW WW Bye WL LL WW WW LW 9 4
Tampa Bay WL LL LL LL Bye LL LL LL LL LW LW LW LL WW 9 4
Washington WL LL LL WW Bye LL LW LL LW WL LL LL LL LL 9 4
Arizona LL LW LL WW LW LL LL LW Bye WW WW LW WL WW 8 5
Buffalo LL WW WL LW LL LL LW LL LL LL LW Bye WL LL 8 5
Cleveland WL LL LW LW WW LL LL LL LW Bye LL LL WL LL 8 5
Dallas WW WL WW WL LL WW WW WL WW WL Bye WW WW WL 8 5
Houston WW WW WL LL LL WL LL Bye LL LL WL WL LL WL 8 5
New England WW WW WW LW WL LW WL WW WW Bye LL LW WW WW 8 5
Oakland LL WW LL LL LW LL Bye LW WL LL LW LL LL WL 8 5
Atlanta LL WW WL WL WL Bye WW WL LL LL WL LL LW LL 7 6
Baltimore LL WW LW WL LW LL WL Bye WL LW LL WW WW WW 7 6
Indianapolis WW WL LW WW WW WL LW Bye WW WL WW WL WW LL 7 6
Minnesota LL LL WL LW Bye WL LL LL LL LW LL LT LW LL 7 6
Chicago LW WW WW WL LL WW WL Bye LW LL WW WL WL LW 6 7
Detroit WW WL WW LW LL WW WL LW Bye WW WL WL WW WL 6 7
Philadelphia LW WL LL LL WW WW LL WL LW LW WW Bye LW LW 6 7
Pittsburgh WL LL LL WL Bye LW LW WL LL WW LW WW LL WL 6 7
Cincinnati WL WW LW WL LW WW LW WW WL WL WW Bye LW WW 5 8
New York Jets LW LL LW LL LW WL LW LL LW Bye WL LL LL LW 5 8
San Diego LL LW LL LW WL LW WW Bye WL LL WL LW WL WW 5 8
Miami LW LW LW LL WL Bye WL LL LW WL LW LL WW LW 4 9
Total 256 160

Each week, One.Cool.Customer hosts a pick-em page (week #14 picks / week #15 picks) where all the Front Page Writers offer picks in every game for the week. I track their consensus picks for each game and compare it to our consensus for each game. This week, we lost a game to them. We had fifteen identical preferences, but they favored Jacksonville while our consensus narrowly favored Houston. So, our two game lead is now back down to one.

All season long, jstaubach has been posting picks for every game. Most weeks, he makes a Thursday pick, then comes in during the weekend and posts the rest of his ten. And, then, he posts picks on the "other" games (three-six other games that the rest of us are all too happy to avoid).

I kept promising him that I was going to incorporate his picks and compare how he did along with our consensus and the FPW consensus. Last week, I finally included his picks, and he was outpicking all of the Front Page Writers.

jstaubach rocks! His every-game-every-week picks are not only ahead of either consensus; he would be in first place on the FPW page. After week #13, he was one better than their co-leaders (Dave Halprin and rabblerousr). This week, he really rocked, only missing Seattle and Dallas. His stellar 14-2 widens his lead over Dave (10-6) and rabble (9-7) this week. Compare jstaubach's 138 with their best (Dave leads with 133).

Now, he does have an easier time; the FPWs have to turn their picks in on Wednesday for all games, so the Google can publish the page early on Thursday. Typically, jstaubach will post a Thursday-Only pick on Thursday, and then his other nine on Sunday morning, followed by his "other games". If there weren't a benefit to posting at the last minute, jstaubach (and many or you) wouldn't do it.

Actually, several of you have already taken advantage of the Holiday Bonus #2 and posted your picks for the final three weeks. Your picks for weeks #15-17 are in the books. That is NOT waiting until the last minute.

The updated table no longer lists losses, just wins. Instead, the first column is how many games there were in a week (sixteen is normal; thirteen-fifteen when teams have byes), followed by our 10-for-10 wins, the FPW wins, and jstaubach's wins.

Here is that updated table:

2013 10-for-10 Consensus / Front Page Writers / jstaubach
Week Games 10-for-10 Wins FPW Wins Jstaubach Wins
1 16 11 11 10
2 16 11 12 13
3 16 9 10 11
4 15 9 7 8
5 14 9 7 9
6 15 10 10 9
7 15 9 9 10
8 13 9 9 10
9 13 7 6 6
10 14 6 7 8
11 15 10 10 10
12 14 7 8 9
13 16 11 10 11
14 16 10 11 14
Total 208 128 127 138

Our average score this week was 7.1-for-10, and the largest group did score 7-for-10. 98% of us were within two games of 7-for-10. We had three that finished worse than 5-for-10, but two of those were late entries who didn't enter ten games.

HonorTheStar was that close to 10-for-10 immortality. Fresh off his first 10-for-10, he was one of those at 9-for-9 headed into Monday night. We have had several 19-for-20s posted (a perfect 10-for-10 preceded by or followed by a 9-for-10), but we had never had anyone go 10-for-10 back-to-back.

As one who had his first two 9-for-9s shot down by Cowboys losses in the tenth game, I understand and feel that pain and frustration - both a Cowboys loss and a missed 10-for-10. Unlike HTS, I am still looking for my first, but I'm not giving up I am 0-for-48, but this week is my forty-ninth attempt, and I'll try my best - again - to go 10-for-10.

We had thirteen only miss one. HonorTheStar was one of six who carried 9-for-9s into Monday night, and left disappointed. We had seven this week who picked the Bears. Coincidentally, all were 8-for-9 going into Monday night (they had missed a variety of games, and not all the same trap game). So, their win elevated them into matching the others with top scores of 9-for-10.

Look at the table below. It's long again this week, because I again included everyone with 7-for-10 or better.

We have a tie at the top. As I mentioned earlier, lsttexas was one of those seven who had the Bears. He needed that win to come from behind and catch JDobermans at the top. It is getting tighter at the top. Two are tied for the lead, three are tied for third, one game back. Five more are tied for sixth, two games back. All ten have broken 100 for the season. Two of our hottest pickers are one more back, with 99.

With three weeks left, it is crucial to get picks in on time. I am already taking week #15 (and weeks #16-17 picks) on my Holiday Bonus #2. Again, some have already posted picks on it for weeks #15-17 - through the end of the season.

Here are the top scores this week, and the top scores on the overall leaderboard:

Top Scores Through Week #14
This Week Score This Week Score 2013 Overall Score 2013 Overall Score
BoyfromOz 9 Benthere 7 JDobermans 102 MSM33 92
Chad Loveland 9 Bertangalo 7 lsttexas 102 Trent Schoneweis 92
cowboy1966 9 BigBad Joe 7 Aggie Man 101 1Bullseye 91
HonorTheStar 9 BigHat in NewTexas 7 Max2 101 Canadian Cowboy_74 91
illcowboy 9 camrin55 7 nicomachus 101 Cowboy Joe 91
Jebediah Flibberbrush 9 cee-los 7 CarloRue 100 cowboyswin 91
j-man 9 Cowboy Joe 7 CowboyBaby 100 iidacii 91
lsttexas 9 CowboysFan1994 7 Jebediah Flibberbrush 100 mik888 91
nicomachus 9 cowboyswin 7 jstaubach 100 spur_for_life 91
nikeorlipstick 9 cowdog 7 Realist Larry 100 Yellowbeard 91
Realist Larry 9 cwby4lf 7 HonorTheStar 99 CDMac24 90
revellyre 9 damnarab2 7 revellyre 99 cee-los 90
Tennessee_Jed 9 dentltek 7 IRONRAVEN 98 dsmith12 90
beastygaming 8 Desertcowboy817 7 beastygaming 97 Hookem Up 90
BishopWest 8 DoomsDay Dub 7 cowboy1966 97 Vector_41 90
bookiebuster 8 dsmith12 7 Wreck'emCowboys 97 Allan Uy 89
boys.camncrew 8 EchoEcho 7 HLCJ69 96 behind.enemylines 89
Canadian Cowboy_74 8 ginge159 7 Lajitas Lava 96 cwby4lf 89
CarloRue 8 Hobbes42 7 Seatown7 96 Howleyesque 89
ChrisMan 8 hookerhome 7 swanhooch 96 jayrosser27 89
cjbrit 8 ibleedcowboyblue 7 TheDemolitionDan 96 Mikellie 89
CowboyBaby 8 jayrosser27 7 Useful_Idiot_ 96 milehightexan 89
CowboysNation 8 jazzbo251 7 BigHat in NewTexas 95 Sandmann 89
Dalai Luke 8 jockmeister 7 bookiebuster 95 scotscowboyfan 89
DCB* 8 Joe21 7 boys.camncrew 95 BigBad Joe 88
geof 8 jtiddahr 7 DCB* 95 BoydNation 88
HLCJ69 8 ketom1220 7 illcowboy 95 cjbrit 88
IRONRAVEN 8 LoboTX 7 mikemc68 95 Rex Pfister 88
jamesvb 8 makemyday 7 nikeorlipstick 95 traceabides 88
Jdewey 8 mdlusk 7 One.Cool.Customer 95 Witten mittens 88
JDobermans 8 MSM33 7 Tennessee_Jed 95 CowboysBarry 87
jordanch68 8 mushpuppy 7 geof 94 cowdog 87
jstaubach 8 NCHeelsBoysFan 7 mushpuppy 94 damnarab2 87
Lajitas Lava 8 oldboysfan 7 Sean N 94 Enja 87
Max2 8 One.Cool.Customer 7 skinny post 94 KD Drummond 87
meisternance 8 PhiAlphaHalos 7 Tallgrass Prairie 94 MUTTS 87
mik888 8 Portland's Cowboy fan 7 Through Thick And Thin 94 Scurrah Jurrah 87
Mikellie 8 Rex Pfister 7 Dalai Luke 93 Switters023 87
mikemc68 8 Ride Together, Die Together 7 jamesvb 93 Babygirl71 86
milehightexan 8 scotscowboyfan 7 j-man 93 Bertangalo 86
Pasipple 8 Scurrah Jurrah 7 lucke 93 hookerhome 86
pugbuddy 8 Seatown7 7 NorthStar99 93 wittenfan 86
Rajohnnn 8 Shakeepuddn 7 Pasipple 93 k@s! 85
Sandmann 8 since '66 7 Rajohnnn 93 kethry1313 85
Sean N 8 sirjason22 7 Souna21 93 NCHeelsBoysFan 85
skinny post 8 Smax17177 7 Specific 93 sirjason22 85
Souna21 8 spur_for_life 7 StarloverinWNC 93 Smax17177 85
Specific 8 starbury_to_s-jaxci2000 7 Travlr 93 thepainster 85
StarloverinWNC 8 Switters023 7 zigg6411 93 ibleedcowboyblue 85
TheDemolitionDan 8 TexasGarcia37 7 camrin55 92 jazzbo251 84
thepainster 8 traceabides 7 ChrisMan 92 letsgtld 84
Trent Schoneweis 8 Travlr 7 EchoEcho 92 Static 84
TwoBitWhackJob 8 Vancity Cowboy 7 ginge159 92 Vancity Cowboy 84
YumaCactus 8 Vector_41 7 jakezze01 92 VictoryorDeath 84
zigg6411 8 VictoryorDeath 7 ketom1220 92 YumaCactus 84
ziggy19 8 westmodelmarket 7 mdlusk 92 4 tied with 83
Aggie Man 7 Wreck'emCowboys 7 meisternance 92 3 tied with 82

You requested, and I have begun to list a comparison of our scores to previous years. Again, I don't have access to KD's 2010 records, but I can provide that comparison to 2011 and 2012. However, the different bye schedules, and the different week-to-week difficulties make a direct comparison fairly difficult.

Because of the way I maintain my records, it would be very time consuming to recreate 2011 and 2012 leaderboards after week #14. Rather than do that, I will name some of the top scores here, and give the links to my FanPosts from those weeks, so you can see my tables from 2011 - Week #14 and 2012 - Week #14.

Week #14 in 2011 had thirteen 9-for-10s (ten missed Dallas' home loss to the Giants; the others missed San Francisco's upset loss to the Cardinals). Jebediah Flibberbrush widened his lead to two games and began to take control of the overall leaderboard. He was one of nine to reach 100 during week #14.

Top scores after week #14 in 2011:

  • 106 - Jebediah Flibberbrush
  • 104 - illcowboy
  • 103 - Hookem Up, mdlusk, and wittenfan
  • 102 - ChiaCrck (Archie Barberio)
  • 100 - qbfannn (CowboyBaby), Travlr, and ziggy19

Week #14 in 2012 was the second of two times where our consensus was evenly divided on a game, as an equal number (12) picked both the Jets and Jaguars. No one went 10-for-10, although TheDemolitionDan posted 9-for-10, as he avoided four of the five trap games that got everyone else.

With an average score of 6.2-for-10, only seven reached 100 in week #14. Most lost ground to CowboyBaby, and only Hawkeye101 (our Yellowbeard) kept him in sight.

Top scores after week #14 in 2012:

  • 104 - CowboyBaby
  • 102 - Hawkeye101 (Yellowbeard)
  • 101 - BishopWest, ChrisMan, and Rex Pfister
  • 100 - mdlusk and ziggy19

I was on this leaderboard last week. but was well into my December swoon and had fallen six back. My December swoon began in October this year, and I have not been able to reverse it.

I'm still wavering over publishing my I Did the Math series this year. Last week when I ran some numbers, the Cowboys were still alive for the top seed. That scenario included a Seahawks loss, and could have worked with a 10-6 Cowboys. I'll check it out when I have a moment.

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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