FanPost

KD's 10-for-10 - 2013 Week #16 Update

Apologies from your volunteer scorekeeper.

No excuses, I blew it. I already apologized to KD and on the active 10-for-10 threads. Somehow, when I was quickly tabulating early games, I recorded Miami's shutout loss as a win, and gave the fifty-eight who picked the Dolphins credit for a win and the two who picked Buffalo a loss.

As I continued to post updates on KD's last contest page, those wrong numbers were factored into every report. I found and fixed it today, but too late for KD's original week #17 contest page (he has already graciously edited his page, and it now has the correct information).

I will be listing all 129 scores from week #16 down below - the correct scores. If you had Miami, your total has been reduced by one. Our top score for the week is no longer 9-for-10, but 8-for-10. And, we no longer have a tie at the lead. Read all that below.

After a record 242 in week #1, we settled into two plateaus: 190-200 range from weeks #2-10, and then down into the 140-160 range from weeks #11-15. New players came in and kept the weekly numbers steady, even as others dropped out.

Well, we dropped off of that plateau this week as only 129 participated this week, eighteen fewer than last week's previous low. Worse, fifteen of those had played all fifteen weeks, and missed their first week to play.

Coincidentally, SBNation (parent site of Blogging the Boys) had problems last week. I had a hard time finding it up in order to post my last update and to post my I Did the Math FanPost. I had hoped that those issues wouldn't affect your abilities to persevere and get your picks in, but I'm afraid that it was a factor.

I feel badly for those who hadn't missed a week all year, but there were two opportunities to post picks - my Holiday Bonus #2 had been up for a couple of weeks and had been taking picks through week #16 (and even week #17). And, then, everything got working on SBNation for the weekend.

Here is the participation table:

Participation
Week Played This Week Missed This Week Total
1 242 0 242
2 207 49 256
3 200 60 259
4 198 67 265
5 189 80 269
6 199 80 279
7 200 90 290
8 195 100 295
9 186 110 296
10 176 122 297
11 157 141 298
12 158 143 301
13 155 147 302
14 155 150 305
15 147 160 307
16 129 180 309

ONE! TWO! THREE! We took three strikes, and everyone was out of 10-for-10 running. We all jumped on the same eight games, and picked them almost all the same way. Over 90% of us picked the Cowboys over Washington, and the other seven were near unanimous (807-4). We survived two of those with narrow escapes - Dallas and San Francisco - but took losses on three "gimme" picks - Kansas City, Detroit, and Seattle - all losing at home.

We never saw those coming. The Chiefs still had (past tense) a shot at the division; the Lions had (past tense) a great shot at the division; and the Seahawks missed a chance to clinch the #1 seed in the playoffs. Now, the Chiefs are locked into a wild card; Lions are eliminated; and the Seahawks have pressure to win in their finale or blow the top seed, first-round bye, and home field.

Here are our results this week:

Week #16 Results (Home in CAPS)
Win Winners (we're great) Lose
127 Denver HOUSTON 0
119 SAN FRANCISCO Atlanta 1
117 SAN DIEGO Oakland 0
116 Dallas WASHINGTON 12
108 CINCINNATI Minnesota 1
68 ST. LOUIS Tampa Bay 2
36 CAROLINA New Orleans 9
29 Tennessee JACKSONVILLE 11
25 New England BALTIMORE 11
Win Losers (we're bleep) Lose
1 Arizona SEATTLE 122
1 New York Giants DETROIT 114
0 Indianapolis KANSAS CITY 100
2 BUFFALO Miami 58
17 PHILADELPHIA Chicago 34
Win Pretty Even (we're indecisive) Lose
12 Pittsburgh GREEN BAY 13
10 NEW YORK JETS Cleveland 13

For the sixteenth time since I've been keeping records, we have unanimously picked a team that failed to win (fifteen times, our team lost; once, our team tied - still a non-win). This was an epidemic in 2011, KD's first year to have 10-for-10 on the Front Page, as it happened ten times. As we've grown in numbers and experience, it doesn't happen as much. In 2012, it only happened four times - and one of those was the infamous 49ers-Rams tie that cost many of us a 10-for-10.

This is our second time this season, and interestingly enough, both involved the Colts. Our worst ever unanimous non-win came six weeks ago when all 172 who played the game picked the Colts over the Rams. This week was our fourth worst when 100 of us picked the Chiefs over these same Colts. If it weren't for Mikellie's pick of the Giants, or PhiAlphaHalos' pick of the Cardinals, we would have had three shutouts in the same week.

I hate trotting this table out, but here it is again:

Worst Unanimous 10-for-10 "Non-Wins"
Week Picks Our Pick Winner
2013-10 172 Indianapolis St. Louis
2012-03 170 San Francisco Minnesota
2012-10 127 San Francisco St. Louis (tie)
2013-16 100 Kansas City Indianapolis
2012-13 98 Baltimore Pittsburgh
2012-15 87 Detroit Arizona
2011-02 79 Baltimore Tennessee
2011-08 77 New Orleans St. Louis
2011-10 75 Baltimore Seattle
2011-07 70 Baltimore Jacksonville
2011-15 64 Green Bay Kansas City
2011-04 61 Buffalo Cincinnati
2011-01 60 Cleveland Cincinnati
2011-03 51 Arizona Seattle
2011-13 50 Chicago Kansas City
2011-14 23 Philadelphia Miami

Those same three losses that killed our scores also hurt in our picks of certain teams. There were four teams that have been certain victory for us this season - we pick them to win, they win; we pick them to lose, they lose. We were 12-2 picking each of these four teams, until this week, when we mis-picked three of them. Alone at the top, the team that we have picked correctly thirteen times and only missed twice - Tennessee.

At the bottom of this table is the team that we are the worst at picking. After three weeks in a row of missing with Miami - picking them to win and watching them lose, or picking them to lose and watching them win - I now deliberately avoid them. However, many of you didn't, and they got us again, for the second week in a row and eleventh time this year.

Here's a complete look at how we have picked each team, each week (first letter - our pick; second letter - actual result; again, a tie counts as a loss):

Picks/Results for Each Team/Each Week
Team Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4 Wk 5 Wk 6 Wk 7 Wk 8 Wk 9 Wk 10 Wk 11 Wk 12 Wk 13 Wk 14 Wk 15 Wk 16 Wk 17 W L
Tennessee LW LL WW WW LL LL LL Bye WW WL LL WW LL LL LL WW 13 2
Denver WW WW WW WW WW WW WL WW Bye WW WW WL WW WW WL WW 12 3
Kansas City WW LW WW WW WW WW WW WW WW Bye LL WL LL WW WW WL 12 3
New York Giants LL LL WL LL LL LL WW LW Bye WW WW LL WW LL LL LW 12 3
Seattle WW LW WW WW LL WW WW WW WW WW WW Bye WW WL WW WL 12 3
Carolina LL LL LW Bye WL LW WW WW WW LW WW WW WW LL WW WW 11 4
New Orleans WW WW WW WW WW WL Bye WW WL LW WW WW LL WW WL LL 11 4
San Francisco WW WL WL WW WW WW WW WW Bye WL LL WW WW LW WW WW 11 4
St Louis WW LL LL LL WW LW LL LL LL LW Bye LW LL LL LW WW 11 4
Tampa Bay WL LL LL LL Bye LL LL LL LL LW LW LW LL WW LL LL 11 4
Washington WL LL LL WW Bye LL LW LL LW WL LL LL LL LL LL LL 11 4
Houston WW WW WL LL LL WL LL Bye LL LL WL WL LL WL LL LL 10 5
Jacksonville LL LL LL LL LL LL LL LL Bye LW LL LW LW LW WL LL 10 5
Oakland LL WW LL LL LW LL Bye LW WL LL LW LL LL WL LL LL 10 5
Arizona LL LW LL WW LW LL LL LW Bye WW WW LW WL WW WW LW 9 6
Atlanta LL WW WL WL WL Bye WW WL LL LL WL LL LW LL WW LL 9 6
Cleveland WL LL LW LW WW LL LL LL LW Bye LL LL WL LL LL WL 9 6
Dallas WW WL WW WL LL WW WW WL WW WL Bye WW WW WL WL WW 9 6
Green Bay LL WW WL Bye WW WW WW WW WL WL LL WT LL WW LW WL 9 6
New England WW WW WW LW WL LW WL WW WW Bye LL LW WW WW WL WW 9 6
Baltimore LL WW LW WL LW LL WL Bye WL LW LL WW WW WW LW LL 8 7
Buffalo LL WW WL LW LL LL LW LL LL LL LW Bye WL LL LW LW 8 7
Indianapolis WW WL LW WW WW WL LW Bye WW WL WW WL WW LL WW LW 8 7
Minnesota LL LL WL LW Bye WL LL LL LL LW LL LT LW LL LW LL 8 7
Chicago LW WW WW WL LL WW WL Bye LW LL WW WL WL LW WW WL 7 8
Cincinnati WL WW LW WL LW WW LW WW WL WL WW Bye LW WW WL WW 6 9
Detroit WW WL WW LW LL WW WL LW Bye WW WL WL WW WL WL WL 6 9
New York Jets LW LL LW LL LW WL LW LL LW Bye WL LL LL LW LL LW 6 9
Philadelphia LW WL LL LL WW WW LL WL LW LW WW Bye LW LW WL LW 6 9
Pittsburgh WL LL LL WL Bye LW LW WL LL WW LW WW LL WL LW LW 6 9
San Diego LL LW LL LW WL LW WW Bye WL LL WL LW WL WW LW WW 6 9
Miami LW LW LW LL WL Bye WL LL LW WL LW LL WW LW LW WL 4 11
Total 290 190

Each week, One.Cool.Customer hosts a pick-em page (week #16 picks / week #17 picks) where all the Front Page Writers offer picks in every game for the week. I track their consensus picks for each game and compare it to our consensus for each game. This week, we had identical preferences in fifteen of the games. Ever hear that every vote counts? Well, by the margin of 13-12 (only 25 out of 129 touched this game), our consensus picked Green Bay, while the FPWs had Pittsburgh.

So, our one game lead over them is evaporated, and we enter week #17 the same way we entered week #1 - tied with them.

All season long, jstaubach has been posting picks for every game. Most weeks, he makes a Thursday pick, then comes in during the weekend and posts the rest of his ten. And, then, he posts picks on the "other" games (three-six other games that the rest of us are all too happy to avoid).

I promised him all season that I was going to tally his picks and compare how he did along with our consensus and the FPW consensus. Two weeks ago, I finally got them all counted, and he was outpicking all of the Front Page Writers.

This is the fourth week that I have reported his score, and he continues to blow their picks away. On the week #17 pick-em (linked just above), their top three are close together - 151 for rabble, 150 for O.C.C, and 149 for Dave. If jstaubach were in their contest, he would have an unsurmountable lead, with 156.

Qualifier - he does have an easier time; the FPWs have to turn their picks in on Wednesday for all games, so the Google can publish his page early on Thursday. Typically, jstaubach will post a Thursday-Only pick on Thursday, and then his other nine on Sunday morning, followed by his "other games". If there weren't a benefit to posting at the last minute, jstaubach (and many or you) wouldn't do it.

Actually, several of you have already taken advantage of the Holiday Bonus #2 and posted your picks for the final games of the season. Your picks for this week are already in the books. That is NOT waiting until the last minute.

The updated table no longer lists losses, just wins. Instead, the first column is how many games there were in a week (sixteen is normal; thirteen-fifteen when teams have byes), followed by our 10-for-10 wins, the FPW wins, and jstaubach's wins.

Here is that updated table:

2013 10-for-10 Consensus / Front Page Writers / jstaubach
Week Games 10-for-10 Wins FPW Wins Jstaubach Wins
1 16 11 11 10
2 16 11 12 13
3 16 9 10 11
4 15 9 7 8
5 14 9 7 9
6 15 10 10 9
7 15 9 9 10
8 13 9 9 10
9 13 7 6 6
10 14 6 7 8
11 15 10 10 10
12 14 7 8 9
13 16 11 10 11
14 16 10 11 14
15 16 8 8 10
16 16 9 10 8
Total 240 145 145 156

Our average score this week went up slightly, to 6.1-for-10, and the largest group did score 6-for-10. Because of my foulup on recording/reporting this week's scores, I am listing all 129 scores for this week, and the top 130 on the overall leaderboard.

I had initially reported illcowboy as the only one to go 9-for-10 this week, but he was one of the ones who had included Miami. His score for the week was actually 8-for-10. Instead of having the top score for the week to himself, he shared it with bookiebuster, CowboyBaby, Mikellie, MosesArt, One.Cool.Customer, Realist Larry, and Sean N.

After initially reporting a tie at the top, the truth is that lsttexas maintained his one-game lead over JDobermans. Moving up into a tie for second is Realist Larry. CowboyBaby leads a group of five who are two out of the lead, and still remains alive to be the first repeat champion (and back-to-back champion).

We had fifteen players who had played all fifteen weeks fail to get their picks in this past week, and that has caused a seismic shift in the top of the leaderboard.

We now have seventy-five members of the Century Club (overall scores of at least 100).

Here are all of the scores this week, and the top scores on the overall leaderboard:

Top Scores Through Week #16
This Week Score This Week Score 2013 Overall Score 2013 Overall Score
bookiebuster 8 JDobermans 6 lsttexas 115 scotscowboyfan 102
CowboyBaby 8 Jebediah Flibberbrush 6 JDobermans 114 1Bullseye 101
illcowboy 8 Lajitas Lava 6 Realist Larry 114 behind.enemylines 101
Mikellie 8 Longdistance fan 6 Aggie Man 113 cee-los 101
MosesArt 8 lsttexas 6 CarloRue 113 cwby4lf 101
One.Cool.Customer 8 lucke 6 CowboyBaby 113 Hookem Up 101
Realist Larry 8 makemyday 6 Max2 113 jayrosser27 101
Sean N 8 Max2 6 nicomachus 113 Yellowbeard 101
alnelso 7 mbraunginn 6 jstaubach 112 CowboysBarry 100
AnderJ86 7 mdlusk 6 revellyre 112 milehightexan 100
beastygaming 7 Mightytigers2000 6 cowboy1966 111 cjbrit 99
behind.enemylines 7 mushpuppy 6 HonorTheStar 111 cowdog 99
BigBad Joe 7 NCHeelsBoysFan 6 Jebediah Flibberbrush 111 damnarab2 99
BishopWest 7 nicomachus 6 beastygaming 109 jamesvb 99
Bvanzanman 7 nikeorlipstick 6 bookiebuster 109 hookerhome 98
camrin55 7 PhiAlphaHalos 6 HLCJ69 109 Howleyesque 98
CarloRue 7 pugbuddy 6 illcowboy 109 kethry1313 98
CDMac24 7 Rajohnnn 6 One.Cool.Customer 109 NCHeelsBoysFan 98
cowboy1966 7 Rome One 6 Wreck'emCowboys 109 Sandmann 98
cwby4lf 7 scotscowboyfan 6 IRONRAVEN 108 Vancity Cowboy 98
HLCJ69 7 slowmotion80 6 Sean N 108 Witten mittens 98
ibleedcowboyblue 7 Smax17177 6 j-man 107 Babygirl71 97
jakezze01 7 Specific 6 Lajitas Lava 107 ibleedcowboyblue 97
jazzbo251 7 StarloverinWNC 6 NorthStar99 107 KD Drummond 97
Jdewey 7 swanhooch 6 Tallgrass Prairie 107 ketom1220 97
j-man 7 thepainster 6 Useful_Idiot_ 107 MUTTS 97
jockmeister 7 Through Thick And Thin 6 zigg6411 107 Trent Schoneweis 97
Joe21 7 TwoBitWhackJob 6 lucke 106 Bertangalo 96
jordanch68 7 Vector_41 6 mikemc68 106 EchoEcho 96
kethry1313 7 VictoryorDeath 6 Souna21 106 iidacii 96
LoboTX 7 Wreck'emCowboys 6 TheDemolitionDan 106 jazzbo251 96
milehightexan 7 YumaCactus 6 Through Thick And Thin 106 k@s! 96
MSM33 7 1Bullseye 5 BigHat in NewTexas 105 Smax17177 96
NorthStar99 7 Bertangalo 5 Dalai Luke 105 thepainster 96
oldboysfan 7 BigHat in NewTexas 5 geof 105 VictoryorDeath 96
revellyre 7 cjbrit 5 jakezze01 105 Allan Uy 95
since '66 7 cowdog 5 mushpuppy 105 AnderJ86 95
Souna21 7 DCB* 5 nikeorlipstick 105 Farrah's Daddy 95
spur_for_life 7 Gabby 5 Specific 105 traceabides 95
T Zig 7 geof 5 StarloverinWNC 105 YumaCactus 95
Tallgrass Prairie 7 Hookem Up 5 swanhooch 105 BoydNation 94
Travlr 7 IRONRAVEN 5 boys.camncrew 104 Bvanzanman 94
Vancity Cowboy 7 jstaubach 5 camrin55 104 Joe21 94
zigg6411 7 k@s! 5 CDMac24 104 Longdistance fan 94
Aggie Man 6 KD Drummond 5 DCB* 104 Scurrah Jurrah 94
Babygirl71 6 meisternance 5 ginge159 104 Jessy S 93
Benthere 6 mikemc68 5 meisternance 104 LoboTX 93
BoyfromOz 6 MUTTS 5 MSM33 104 mbraunginn 93
boys.camncrew 6 Pasipple 5 Rajohnnn 104 Rex Pfister 93
Canadian Cowboy_74 6 Portland's Cowboy fan 5 skinny post 104 slowmotion80 93
carguy102 6 Sandmann 5 Travlr 104 TwoBitWhackJob 93
cee-los 6 skinny post 5 Vector_41 104 Gabby 92
Chad Loveland 6 starbury_to_s-jaxci2000 5 Canadian Cowboy_74 103 since '66 90
ChrisMan 6 TheDemolitionDan 5 dsmith12 103 Static 90
Cowboy Joe 6 Trivial 5 mdlusk 103 InkedKing 89
CowboysBarry 6 Useful_Idiot_ 5 Pasipple 103 wildtigger2 89
cowboyswin 6 Yellowbeard 5 Seatown7 103 Rome One 88
Dalai Luke 6 ziggy19 5 spur_for_life 103 BoyfromOz 87
damnarab2 6 Howleyesque 4 Tennessee_Jed 103 Enja 87
dsmith12 6 Jessy S 4 BigBad Joe 102 jtiddahr 87
Farrah's Daddy 6 mik888 4 ChrisMan 102 Junkyard Dog 87
ginge159 6 Tennessee_Jed 4 Cowboy Joe 102 makemyday 87
HonorTheStar 6 wildtigger2 4 cowboyswin 102 starbury_to_s-jaxci2000 87
hookerhome 6 Witten mittens 4 mik888 102 Switters023 87
jayrosser27 6 Mikellie 102 ziggy19 87

You requested, and I have begun to list a comparison of our scores to previous years. Again, I don't have access to KD's 2010 records, but I can provide that comparison to 2011 and 2012. However, the different bye schedules, and the different week-to-week difficulties make a direct comparison fairly difficult.

Because of the way I maintain my records, it would be very time consuming to recreate 2011 and 2012 leaderboards after week #15. Rather than do that, I will name some of the top scores here, and give the links to my FanPosts from those weeks, so you can see my tables from 2011 - Week #16 and 2012 - Week #16.

I'm not handing the overall title yet to lsttexas, although he had led or co-led more weeks than anyone else this season. But, in the past two seasons, the overall champion was also the leader after weeks #14-16.

Week #16 in 2011 began our current season-ending tradition of ending with a play-in game flexed to NBC after all the other games are decided. The Giants had earlier beaten the Jets to force relevance to week #16, and the Cowboys treated the Eagles as an exhibition game. There were no 10-for-10s, and Jebediah Flibberbrush got measure for his crown, as he built his lead up to two games.

Top scores after week #16 in 2011:

  • 119 - Jebediah Flibberbrush
  • 117 - illcowboy
  • 116 - Hookem Up, mdlusk, and qbfannn (CowboyBaby)
  • 115 - Travlr and ziggy19
  • 113 - ChiaCrack (Archie Barberio)
  • 112 - Specific and wittenfan

Week #16 in 2012 saw a Cowboys loss (to New Orleans), no 10-for-10s, and the continued dominance of CowboyBaby. After coming close in 2011, he changed his handle from qbfannn and took careful aim on the winning in 2012.

For the seventh week in a row, he was the overall leader, and for the fifth week in a row, his lead was two. However, ChrisMan was starting to gain notice, as he rose to second and held his ground on CB's heels. As you will see next week, ChrisMan, picking the Redskins, closed with a 10-for-10 in week #17. Could he catch CowboyBaby?.

Top scores after week #16 in 2012:

  • 119 - CowboyBaby
  • 117 - ChrisMan and ziggy19
  • 116 - Hawkeye101 (Yellowbeard) , and ziggy19
  • 114 - BigBad Joe, BishopWest, krikaley, mdlusk, and Rex Pfister
  • 113 - Aggie Man, Jebediah Flibberbrush, jstaubach, krikaley, mushpuppy, Nord15, and oldboysfan

Remember, I'm not taking picks on here. Make week #17 picks on my Holiday Bonus #2 FanPost or on KD's new contest page.

Also, check out my updated I Did the Math - Part 2.

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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