Apologies from your volunteer scorekeeper.
No excuses, I blew it. I already apologized to KD and on the active 10-for-10 threads. Somehow, when I was quickly tabulating early games, I recorded Miami's shutout loss as a win, and gave the fifty-eight who picked the Dolphins credit for a win and the two who picked Buffalo a loss.
As I continued to post updates on KD's last contest page, those wrong numbers were factored into every report. I found and fixed it today, but too late for KD's original week #17 contest page (he has already graciously edited his page, and it now has the correct information).
I will be listing all 129 scores from week #16 down below - the correct scores. If you had Miami, your total has been reduced by one. Our top score for the week is no longer 9-for-10, but 8-for-10. And, we no longer have a tie at the lead. Read all that below.
After a record 242 in week #1, we settled into two plateaus: 190-200 range from weeks #2-10, and then down into the 140-160 range from weeks #11-15. New players came in and kept the weekly numbers steady, even as others dropped out.
Well, we dropped off of that plateau this week as only 129 participated this week, eighteen fewer than last week's previous low. Worse, fifteen of those had played all fifteen weeks, and missed their first week to play.
Coincidentally, SBNation (parent site of Blogging the Boys) had problems last week. I had a hard time finding it up in order to post my last update and to post my I Did the Math FanPost. I had hoped that those issues wouldn't affect your abilities to persevere and get your picks in, but I'm afraid that it was a factor.
I feel badly for those who hadn't missed a week all year, but there were two opportunities to post picks - my Holiday Bonus #2 had been up for a couple of weeks and had been taking picks through week #16 (and even week #17). And, then, everything got working on SBNation for the weekend.
Here is the participation table:
|Week||Played This Week||Missed This Week||Total|
ONE! TWO! THREE! We took three strikes, and everyone was out of 10-for-10 running. We all jumped on the same eight games, and picked them almost all the same way. Over 90% of us picked the Cowboys over Washington, and the other seven were near unanimous (807-4). We survived two of those with narrow escapes - Dallas and San Francisco - but took losses on three "gimme" picks - Kansas City, Detroit, and Seattle - all losing at home.
We never saw those coming. The Chiefs still had (past tense) a shot at the division; the Lions had (past tense) a great shot at the division; and the Seahawks missed a chance to clinch the #1 seed in the playoffs. Now, the Chiefs are locked into a wild card; Lions are eliminated; and the Seahawks have pressure to win in their finale or blow the top seed, first-round bye, and home field.
Here are our results this week:
|Week #16 Results (Home in CAPS)|
|Win||Winners (we're great)||Lose|
|68||ST. LOUIS||Tampa Bay||2|
|Win||Losers (we're bleep)||Lose|
|1||New York Giants||DETROIT||114|
|Win||Pretty Even (we're indecisive)||Lose|
|10||NEW YORK JETS||Cleveland||13|
For the sixteenth time since I've been keeping records, we have unanimously picked a team that failed to win (fifteen times, our team lost; once, our team tied - still a non-win). This was an epidemic in 2011, KD's first year to have 10-for-10 on the Front Page, as it happened ten times. As we've grown in numbers and experience, it doesn't happen as much. In 2012, it only happened four times - and one of those was the infamous 49ers-Rams tie that cost many of us a 10-for-10.
This is our second time this season, and interestingly enough, both involved the Colts. Our worst ever unanimous non-win came six weeks ago when all 172 who played the game picked the Colts over the Rams. This week was our fourth worst when 100 of us picked the Chiefs over these same Colts. If it weren't for Mikellie's pick of the Giants, or PhiAlphaHalos' pick of the Cardinals, we would have had three shutouts in the same week.
I hate trotting this table out, but here it is again:
|Worst Unanimous 10-for-10 "Non-Wins"|
|2012-10||127||San Francisco||St. Louis (tie)|
|2011-08||77||New Orleans||St. Louis|
|2011-15||64||Green Bay||Kansas City|
Those same three losses that killed our scores also hurt in our picks of certain teams. There were four teams that have been certain victory for us this season - we pick them to win, they win; we pick them to lose, they lose. We were 12-2 picking each of these four teams, until this week, when we mis-picked three of them. Alone at the top, the team that we have picked correctly thirteen times and only missed twice - Tennessee.
At the bottom of this table is the team that we are the worst at picking. After three weeks in a row of missing with Miami - picking them to win and watching them lose, or picking them to lose and watching them win - I now deliberately avoid them. However, many of you didn't, and they got us again, for the second week in a row and eleventh time this year.
Here's a complete look at how we have picked each team, each week (first letter - our pick; second letter - actual result; again, a tie counts as a loss):
|Picks/Results for Each Team/Each Week|
|Team||Wk 1||Wk 2||Wk 3||Wk 4||Wk 5||Wk 6||Wk 7||Wk 8||Wk 9||Wk 10||Wk 11||Wk 12||Wk 13||Wk 14||Wk 15||Wk 16||Wk 17||W||L|
|New York Giants||LL||LL||WL||LL||LL||LL||WW||LW||Bye||WW||WW||LL||WW||LL||LL||LW||12||3|
|New York Jets||LW||LL||LW||LL||LW||WL||LW||LL||LW||Bye||WL||LL||LL||LW||LL||LW||6||9|
Each week, One.Cool.Customer hosts a pick-em page (week #16 picks / week #17 picks) where all the Front Page Writers offer picks in every game for the week. I track their consensus picks for each game and compare it to our consensus for each game. This week, we had identical preferences in fifteen of the games. Ever hear that every vote counts? Well, by the margin of 13-12 (only 25 out of 129 touched this game), our consensus picked Green Bay, while the FPWs had Pittsburgh.
So, our one game lead over them is evaporated, and we enter week #17 the same way we entered week #1 - tied with them.
All season long, jstaubach has been posting picks for every game. Most weeks, he makes a Thursday pick, then comes in during the weekend and posts the rest of his ten. And, then, he posts picks on the "other" games (three-six other games that the rest of us are all too happy to avoid).
I promised him all season that I was going to tally his picks and compare how he did along with our consensus and the FPW consensus. Two weeks ago, I finally got them all counted, and he was outpicking all of the Front Page Writers.
This is the fourth week that I have reported his score, and he continues to blow their picks away. On the week #17 pick-em (linked just above), their top three are close together - 151 for rabble, 150 for O.C.C, and 149 for Dave. If jstaubach were in their contest, he would have an unsurmountable lead, with 156.
Qualifier - he does have an easier time; the FPWs have to turn their picks in on Wednesday for all games, so the Google can publish his page early on Thursday. Typically, jstaubach will post a Thursday-Only pick on Thursday, and then his other nine on Sunday morning, followed by his "other games". If there weren't a benefit to posting at the last minute, jstaubach (and many or you) wouldn't do it.
Actually, several of you have already taken advantage of the Holiday Bonus #2 and posted your picks for the final games of the season. Your picks for this week are already in the books. That is NOT waiting until the last minute.
The updated table no longer lists losses, just wins. Instead, the first column is how many games there were in a week (sixteen is normal; thirteen-fifteen when teams have byes), followed by our 10-for-10 wins, the FPW wins, and jstaubach's wins.
Here is that updated table:
|2013 10-for-10 Consensus / Front Page Writers / jstaubach|
|Week||Games||10-for-10 Wins||FPW Wins||Jstaubach Wins|
Our average score this week went up slightly, to 6.1-for-10, and the largest group did score 6-for-10. Because of my foulup on recording/reporting this week's scores, I am listing all 129 scores for this week, and the top 130 on the overall leaderboard.
I had initially reported illcowboy as the only one to go 9-for-10 this week, but he was one of the ones who had included Miami. His score for the week was actually 8-for-10. Instead of having the top score for the week to himself, he shared it with bookiebuster, CowboyBaby, Mikellie, MosesArt, One.Cool.Customer, Realist Larry, and Sean N.
After initially reporting a tie at the top, the truth is that lsttexas maintained his one-game lead over JDobermans. Moving up into a tie for second is Realist Larry. CowboyBaby leads a group of five who are two out of the lead, and still remains alive to be the first repeat champion (and back-to-back champion).
We had fifteen players who had played all fifteen weeks fail to get their picks in this past week, and that has caused a seismic shift in the top of the leaderboard.
We now have seventy-five members of the Century Club (overall scores of at least 100).
Here are all of the scores this week, and the top scores on the overall leaderboard:
|Top Scores Through Week #16|
|This Week||Score||This Week||Score||2013 Overall||Score||2013 Overall||Score|
|illcowboy||8||Lajitas Lava||6||Realist Larry||114||behind.enemylines||101|
|Mikellie||8||Longdistance fan||6||Aggie Man||113||cee-los||101|
|BigBad Joe||7||NCHeelsBoysFan||6||Jebediah Flibberbrush||111||damnarab2||99|
|HLCJ69||7||slowmotion80||6||Sean N||108||Witten mittens||98|
|jockmeister||7||Through Thick And Thin||6||zigg6411||107||Trent Schoneweis||97|
|milehightexan||7||YumaCactus||6||Through Thick And Thin||106||k@s!||96|
|MSM33||7||1Bullseye||5||BigHat in NewTexas||105||Smax17177||96|
|oldboysfan||7||BigHat in NewTexas||5||geof||105||VictoryorDeath||96|
|Tallgrass Prairie||7||Hookem Up||5||swanhooch||105||BoydNation||94|
|Aggie Man||6||KD Drummond||5||DCB*||104||Scurrah Jurrah||94|
|Canadian Cowboy_74||6||Portland's Cowboy fan||5||skinny post||104||slowmotion80||93|
|Chad Loveland||6||starbury_to_s-jaxci2000||5||Canadian Cowboy_74||103||since '66||90|
|dsmith12||6||Jessy S||4||BigBad Joe||102||jtiddahr||87|
|Farrah's Daddy||6||mik888||4||ChrisMan||102||Junkyard Dog||87|
You requested, and I have begun to list a comparison of our scores to previous years. Again, I don't have access to KD's 2010 records, but I can provide that comparison to 2011 and 2012. However, the different bye schedules, and the different week-to-week difficulties make a direct comparison fairly difficult.
Because of the way I maintain my records, it would be very time consuming to recreate 2011 and 2012 leaderboards after week #15. Rather than do that, I will name some of the top scores here, and give the links to my FanPosts from those weeks, so you can see my tables from 2011 - Week #16 and 2012 - Week #16.
I'm not handing the overall title yet to lsttexas, although he had led or co-led more weeks than anyone else this season. But, in the past two seasons, the overall champion was also the leader after weeks #14-16.
Week #16 in 2011 began our current season-ending tradition of ending with a play-in game flexed to NBC after all the other games are decided. The Giants had earlier beaten the Jets to force relevance to week #16, and the Cowboys treated the Eagles as an exhibition game. There were no 10-for-10s, and Jebediah Flibberbrush got measure for his crown, as he built his lead up to two games.
Top scores after week #16 in 2011:
- 119 - Jebediah Flibberbrush
- 117 - illcowboy
- 116 - Hookem Up, mdlusk, and qbfannn (CowboyBaby)
- 115 - Travlr and ziggy19
- 113 - ChiaCrack (Archie Barberio)
- 112 - Specific and wittenfan
Week #16 in 2012 saw a Cowboys loss (to New Orleans), no 10-for-10s, and the continued dominance of CowboyBaby. After coming close in 2011, he changed his handle from qbfannn and took careful aim on the winning in 2012.
For the seventh week in a row, he was the overall leader, and for the fifth week in a row, his lead was two. However, ChrisMan was starting to gain notice, as he rose to second and held his ground on CB's heels. As you will see next week, ChrisMan, picking the Redskins, closed with a 10-for-10 in week #17. Could he catch CowboyBaby?.
Top scores after week #16 in 2012:
- 119 - CowboyBaby
- 117 - ChrisMan and ziggy19
- 116 - Hawkeye101 (Yellowbeard) , and ziggy19
- 114 - BigBad Joe, BishopWest, krikaley, mdlusk, and Rex Pfister
- 113 - Aggie Man, Jebediah Flibberbrush, jstaubach, krikaley, mushpuppy, Nord15, and oldboysfan
Also, check out my updated I Did the Math - Part 2.