FanPost

KD's 10-for-10 - 2013 Week #13 Update

For the first time this month, we have a 10-for-10 (that's always great in a 10-for-10 contest).

I'm working overtime this week, with several Christmas rehearsals and performances - both at my church and at community events. And, I owe you a couple of extra FanPosts this week - Holiday Bonus #2 (picks for weeks #15-17) and another I Did the Math.

So, this one will be short and sweet.

After averaging almost 200 per week for the first ten weeks, a small November slide (in the 150s the past three weeks), dropped our average per week to just under 190. We always tend to lose some at Thanksgiving, as family trips or the disruption in routine cause difficulty in getting picks in on time. Fortunately, KD dispenses grace at Thanksgiving, and will accept picks after the Cowboys play.

Many took advantage of the first Holiday Bonus to post Thanksgiving picks early. We had 148 make it in with a full ten-pick weekend, including the Cowboys. Seven, including our (now former) overall leader, took advantage to salvage something instead of wasting a week and falling hopelessly back. But, only getting in nine picks instead of ten drops him one behind our new leaders.

Here is the participation table:

Participation
Week Played This Week Missed This Week Total
1 242 0 242
2 207 49 256
3 200 60 259
4 198 67 265
5 189 80 269
6 199 80 279
7 200 90 290
8 195 100 295
9 186 110 296
10 176 122 297
11 157 141 298
12 158 143 301
13 155 147 302

We had a more normal week, and were back to getting most games right. We had seven solid wins, and four other smaller/closer wins. Our five losses were fairly solid, as large numbers of us lost 10-for-10s and failed to score well because of some upsets that we missed. We had a couple more overtime games, but no ties. Those really kill our scores.

But, for the first time in several weeks, we were unanimous in picking Dallas. No one picked the Raiders. That won't be the case next week, as a few of the early week #14 posters have already gone with Chicago.

Here are our results this week:

Week #13 Results (Home in CAPS)
Win Winners (we're great) Lose
149 New England HOUSTON 1
148 DALLAS Oakland 0
137 CAROLINA Tampa Bay 1
123 SAN FRANCISCO St. Louis 8
106 DETROIT Green Bay 6
96 INDIANAPOLIS Tennessee 6
89 Denver KANSAS CITY 14
54 SEATTLE New Orleans 22
32 New York Giants WASHINGTON 11
Win Losers (we're bleep) Lose
14 PHILADELPHIA Arizona 84
9 Jacksonville CLEVELAND 82
5 Atlanta BUFFALO 73
12 MINNESOTA Chicago 61
20 Cincinnati SAN DIEGO 55
Win Pretty Even (we're indecisive) Lose
46 BALTIMORE Pittsburgh 27
27 Miami NEW YORK JETS 25

For the second week in a row, I read the following chart too literally and followed it too closely. And, it was the same team - Miami - that got me again. We had gotten them right three times all year - picked them to lose, and they lost - in weeks #4, 8, and 12. Each time we picked them to win, they lost. So, I played my "super genius" card, noticed that we were picking Miami to win, and picked them to lose. Bleep!

Here's a complete look at how we have picked each team, each week (first letter - our pick; second letter - actual result; again, a tie counts as a loss):

Picks/Results for Each Team/Each Week
Team Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4 Wk 5 Wk 6 Wk 7 Wk 8 Wk 9 Wk 10 Wk 11 Wk 12 Wk 13 Wk 14 Wk 15 Wk 16 Wk 17 W L
Seattle WW LW WW WW LL WW WW WW WW WW WW Bye WW 11 1
Denver WW WW WW WW WW WW WL WW Bye WW WW WL WW 10 2
Kansas City WW LW WW WW WW WW WW WW WW Bye LL WL LL 10 2
New York Giants LL LL WL LL LL LL WW LW Bye WW WW LL WW 10 2
Tennessee LW LL WW WW LL LL LL Bye WW WL LL WW LL 10 2
Jacksonville LL LL LL LL LL LL LL LL Bye LW LL LW LW 9 3
New Orleans WW WW WW WW WW WL Bye WW WL LW WW WW LL 9 3
San Francisco WW WL WL WW WW WW WW WW Bye WL LL WW WW 9 3
St Louis WW LL LL LL WW LW LL LL LL LW Bye LW LL 9 3
Carolina LL LL LW Bye WL LW WW WW WW LW WW WW WW 8 4
Dallas WW WL WW WL LL WW WW WL WW WL Bye WW WW 8 4
Green Bay LL WW WL Bye WW WW WW WW WL WL LL WT LL 8 4
Houston WW WW WL LL LL WL LL Bye LL LL WL WL LL 8 4
Oakland LL WW LL LL LW LL Bye LW WL LL LW LL LL 8 4
Tampa Bay WL LL LL LL Bye LL LL LL LL LW LW LW LL 8 4
Washington WL LL LL WW Bye LL LW LL LW WL LL LL LL 8 4
Arizona LL LW LL WW LW LL LL LW Bye WW WW LW WL 7 5
Buffalo LL WW WL LW LL LL LW LL LL LL LW Bye WL 7 5
Cleveland WL LL LW LW WW LL LL LL LW Bye LL LL WL 7 5
New England WW WW WW LW WL LW WL WW WW Bye LL LW WW 7 5
Atlanta LL WW WL WL WL Bye WW WL LL LL WL LL LW 6 6
Baltimore LL WW LW WL LW LL WL Bye WL LW LL WW WW 6 6
Chicago LW WW WW WL LL WW WL Bye LW LL WW WL WL 6 6
Detroit WW WL WW LW LL WW WL LW Bye WW WL WL WW 6 6
Indianapolis WW WL LW WW WW WL LW Bye WW WL WW WL WW 6 6
Minnesota LL LL WL LW Bye WL LL LL LL LW LL LT LW 6 6
Philadelphia LW WL LL LL WW WW LL WL LW LW WW Bye LW 6 6
Pittsburgh WL LL LL WL Bye LW LW WL LL WW LW WW LL 6 6
New York Jets LW LL LW LL LW WL LW LL LW Bye WL LL LL 5 7
Cincinnati WL WW LW WL LW WW LW WW WL WL WW Bye LW 4 8
Miami LW LW LW LL WL Bye WL LL LW WL LW LL WW 4 8
San Diego LL LW LL LW WL LW WW Bye WL LL WL LW WL 4 8
Total 236 148

Each week, One.Cool.Customer hosts a pick-em page (week #13 picks / week #14 picks) where all the Front Page Writers offer picks in every game for the week. I track their consensus picks for each game and compare it to our consensus for each game. This week, we gained a game on them. We had fifteen identical preferences, but they favored Pittsburgh while our consensus favored Baltimore. So, our one game lead is now back up to two.

Here's something new this week. All season long, jstaubach has been posting picks for every game. Most weeks, he makes a Thursday pick, then comes in during the weekend and posts the rest of his ten. And, then, he posts picks on the "other" games (three-six other games that the rest of us are all too happy to avoid).

I kept promising him that I was going to incorporate his picks and compare how he did along with our consensus and the FPW consensus.

jstaubach rocks! His every-game-every-week picks are not only ahead of either consensus; he would be in first place on the FPW page. After week #12, he was one better than their co-leaders (Dave Halprin and rabblerousr). All three got eleven right, so his total of 124 would still lead their contest after week #13.

I have updated this table, and am not listing losses. Instead, the first column is how many games there were in a week (sixteen is normal; thirteen-fifteen when teams have byes), followed by our 10-for-10 wins, the FPW wins, and jstaubach's wins.

Here is that updated table:

2013 10-for-10 Consensus / Front Page Writers / jstaubach
Week Games 10-for-10 Wins FPW Wins Jstaubach Wins
1 16 11 11 10
2 16 11 12 13
3 16 9 10 11
4 15 9 7 8
5 14 9 7 9
6 15 10 10 9
7 15 9 9 10
8 13 9 9 10
9 13 7 6 6
10 14 6 7 8
11 15 10 10 10
12 14 7 8 9
13 16 11 10 11
Total 192 118 116 124

Our average score this week was 6.9-for-10, and the largest group did score 7-for-10. 98% of us were within two games of 7-for-10. We had three that finished worse than 5-for-10, and one who finished better than 9-for-10.

It was a tough week for HonorTheStar, as he ran into a buzzsaw on another thread earlier in the week as our BTB lightning rod (Tony Romo) was discussed about whether he should be absolved of all blame or shoulder part of the responsibility when the Cowboys fail to win.

HonorTheStar, I hope this is better for you here this week. Congratulations on achieving your first 10-for-10, and the only one so far in December. You picked Philadelphia and avoided the other games that most of us missed. You have chosen well, and you have chosen wisely. Welcome to KD's 10-for-10 Hall of Fame.

We had nine only miss one, and for once, it wasn't all missing the same team/game. Three missed Cleveland, two missed Chicago, two missed Arizona, and one each missed Pittsburgh and the Jets. Look at the table below. It's long this week, because I included everyone with 7-for-10 or better.

We have a tie at the top. As I mentioned earlier, lsttexas missed getting in his Cowboys/Thanksgiving pick, and was limited to only playing nine games this weekend. He needed that tenth game, as Aggie Man and JDobermans passed him and now lead him and Max2 by one. It is getting tighter at the top - two tied for the lead, two tied for third (one back), four tied for fifth (two back), and two more tied for ninth (only three back). Then, it gets even tighter: six more are four back, and three more (total of nineteen) are only five back.

With four weeks left, it is crucial to get picks in on time. I am already taking week #14 picks week #14 on my FanPost (with Holiday Bonus #1). And, I just published my Holiday Bonus #2, and am taking early picks on it for weeks #15-17.

Here are the top scores this week, and the top scores on the overall leaderboard:

Top Scores Through Week #13
This Week Score This Week Score 2013 Overall Score 2013 Overall Score
HonorTheStar 10 boys.camncrew 7 Aggie Man 94 Pasipple 85
CowboyBaby 9 Bvanzanman 7 JDobermans 94 Rajohnnn 85
Enja 9 camrin55 7 lsttexas 93 Souna21 85
illcowboy 9 Canadian Cowboy_74 7 Max2 93 Specific 85
j-man 9 Chad Loveland 7 CarloRue 92 StarloverinWNC 85
milehightexan 9 ChrisMan 7 CowboyBaby 92 Yellowbeard 85
mushpuppy 9 cowboy1966 7 jstaubach 92 zigg6411 85
StarloverinWNC 9 CowboysBarry 7 nicomachus 92 behind.enemylines 84
Useful_Idiot_ 9 cowboyswin 7 Jebediah Flibberbrush 91 CDMac24 84
westmodelmarket 9 cwby4lf 7 Realist Larry 91 ChrisMan 84
1Bullseye 8 Dalai Luke 7 HonorTheStar 90 Cowboy Joe 84
Aggie Man 8 dsel 7 IRONRAVEN 90 cowboyswin 84
beastygaming 8 EchoEcho 7 revellyre 90 j-man 84
behind.enemylines 8 HLCJ69 7 swanhooch 90 letsgtld 84
Benthere 8 ibleedcowboyblue 7 Useful_Idiot_ 90 meisternance 84
BoyfromOz 8 iidacii 7 Wreck'emCowboys 90 spur_for_life 84
CarloRue 8 InkedKing 7 beastygaming 89 Trent Schoneweis 84
cee-los 8 jayrosser27 7 Seatown7 89 Allan Uy 83
Cowboy Joe 8 jazzbo251 7 Tallgrass Prairie 89 Canadian Cowboy_74 83
CowboysFan1994 8 Jdewey 7 BigHat in NewTexas 88 cee-los 83
DCB* 8 Jessy S 7 cowboy1966 88 dsmith12 83
geof 8 Joe21 7 HLCJ69 88 Enja 83
ginge159 8 jstaubach 7 Lajitas Lava 88 Howleyesque 83
IRONRAVEN 8 k@s! 7 One.Cool.Customer 88 mik888 83
jakezze01 8 kethry1313 7 TheDemolitionDan 88 Vector_41 83
jamesvb 8 Lajitas Lava 7 Through Thick And Thin 88 BoydNation 82
JDobermans 8 letsgtld 7 bookiebuster 87 cwby4lf 82
Jebediah Flibberbrush 8 liquidblake 7 boys.camncrew 87 jayrosser27 82
jordanch68 8 Luc in Chile 7 DCB* 87 KD Drummond 82
ketom1220 8 mdlusk 7 lucke 87 scotscowboyfan 82
lucke 8 mikemc68 7 mikemc68 87 Witten mittens 82
Max2 8 Nord15 7 mushpuppy 87 BigBad Joe 81
mik888 8 NorthStar99 7 NorthStar99 87 CowboysBarry 81
MSM33 8 Pasipple 7 geof 86 Gabby 81
nicomachus 8 pugbuddy 7 Hookem Up 86 Mikellie 81
oldboysfan 8 revellyre 7 illcowboy 86 milehightexan 81
Rajohnnn 8 Ride Together, Die Together 7 jakezze01 86 MUTTS 81
Realist Larry 8 Sean N 7 nikeorlipstick 86 Rex Pfister 81
Seatown7 8 Static 7 Sean N 86 Sandmann 81
skinny post 8 Tallgrass Prairie 7 skinny post 86 traceabides 81
Specific 8 Tennessee_Jed 7 Tennessee_Jed 86 wittenfan 81
swanhooch 8 Through Thick And Thin 7 Travlr 86 Babygirl71 80
TheDemolitionDan 8 Trent Schoneweis 7 1Bullseye 85 cjbrit 80
Travlr 8 Vancity Cowboy 7 camrin55 85 cowdog 80
Trivial 8 Vector_41 7 Dalai Luke 85 damnarab2 80
wittenfan 8 VictoryorDeath 7 EchoEcho 85 Scurrah Jurrah 80
zigg6411 8 Witten mittens 7 ginge159 85 Switters023 80
ziggy19 8 YumaCactus 7 iidacii 85 Bertangalo 79
9_to_88 all day 7 37 tied with 6 jamesvb 85 hookerhome 79
Allan Uy 7 15 tied with 5 ketom1220 85 k@s! 79
BigBad Joe 7 2 tied with 4 mdlusk 85 kethry1313 79
BigHat in NewTexas 7 1 caboose 3 MSM33 85 Oh Hai Doggy 79

You requested, and I have begun to list a comparison of our scores to previous years. Again, I don't have access to KD's 2010 records, but I can provide that comparison to 2011 and 2012. However, the different bye schedules, and the different week-to-week difficulties make a direct comparison fairly difficult.

Because of the way I maintain my records, it would be very time consuming to recreate 2011 and 2012 leaderboards after week #11. Rather than do that, I will name some of the top scores here, and give the links to my FanPosts from those weeks, so you can see my tables from 2011 - Week #13 and 2012 - Week #13.

Week #13 in 2011 was the week that I had my first 9-for-9 (I have had three 9-for-9s, and I am still looking for my first 10-for-10). This is the week that CDMac and I were 9-for-9 with our final game for the week Dallas at Arizona. We all remembered that game ("ice your own kicker", overtime loss...). We were the only two to end up 9-for-10. Bleep.

Top scores after week #13 in 2011:

  • 97 - Jebediah Flibberbrush
  • 96 - wittenfan
  • 95 - Hookem Up and illcowboy
  • 94 - mdlusk
  • 93 - BishopWest, ChiaCrck (Archie Barberio), and ziggy19
  • 92 - qbfannn (CowboyBaby) and Travlr
  • 91 - Benthere, Panzer84, Rat-Pack, Specific, and tattooed cowboy

Week #12 in 2012 was not one where the stars aligned. Both teams that ended up in the Super Bowl lost in this week, and our average picks in their games was 99.5-1. All ninety-eight who played the Ravens at home against Pittsburgh lost with them; and, we had ninety-nine pick the 49ers, who lost at St. Louis (to the joy of the only two to get that right). Needless to say, there were no 10-for-10s that week.

Top scores after week #13 in 2012:

  • 97 - CowboyBaby
  • 95 - BishopWest, ChrisMan
  • 94 - Hawkeye101 (Yellowbeard), j-man, and ziggy19
  • 93 - Aggie Man, BigBad Joe, mdlusk, Rex Pfister, and Tennessee_Jed
  • 92 - Against the Wall-24, cowboy1966, hookerhome, jstaubach, KD Drummond, mushpuppy, and shainyc

This is the last you will see of me on this leaderboard. I am already long-gone from this year's top scores. I need to stop here so I can post my next Holiday Bonus and go do some math.

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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