5Blings and I have been having a heated discussion over in the Mythbusting thread. As much as I love going into that thread to see Kari Byron's picture, I think it's gotten too convoluted to follow. The discussion is basically this:
5 Blings believes that Romo is a poor crunch time QB based on his 29-30 record in close games (games decided by one score or less).
I believe that Tony's performance in those types of games is measurable in a variety of other ways and I have tried to do so. Thanks to the estimable OCC's advice, I have been using the Play Index on Pro-Football-Reference.com. Unfortunately, my novice attempts at so doing have resulted in erroneous stats. The stats I was purporting to give came from games where the QB in question had a one score *lead* in the 4th Qtr and, due to my error, did not include games where the QB was *behind* by one score. the main thing that changes, interestingly, is that Eli Manning suddenly gets a hell of a lot better. It's scary. Playing with a one score lead, Eli has a good, but pedestrian 89.9 QB rating. Playing from behind in the 4th qtr, Eli's passer rating skyrockets to 111.5-- much higher than any other QB with at least 100 attempts. Most QBs become significantly worse, indicating that this is a particularly tough time to play football. The only other QB who improves is... Eli's brother. Hmmm...
At any rate, here are the combined numbers for QBs since 2000 (as far back as the play index tracks) in the 4th Qtr or OT in games when the score was within +/-8 points (at the time of the play, not the final score of the game), minimum 200 attempts in that situation (top 10 sorted by passer rating):
Rodgers 8.5 ypa 24 (6.5%) TD 8 (2.1%) INT 104.1 rating
Romo 8.5 ypa 31 (5.7%) TD 14 (2.6%) INT 98.4 rating
E Manning 8.1 ypa 41 (7.0%)TD 20 (3.4%) INT 96.0 rating
P Manning 7.6 ypa 43 (4.8%) TD 22(2.4%) INT 93.0 rating
Brees 7.5 ypa 42 (5.1%) TD 25 (3.0%) INT 92.2 rating
Culpepper 8.2 ypa 24 (5.2%) TD 16 (3.5%) INT 92.1 rating (just how good was Randy Moss?)
Schaub 7.8 ypa 16 (3.9%) TD 12 (2.9 %) INT 88.4 rating
Warner 7.7 ypa 18 (4.0%) TD 13(2.9%) INT 88.1 rating
Freeman 7.9 ypa 11 (4.5%) TD 8 (3.3%) INT 86.1 rating
Roethlisberger 7.7 ypa 25 (4.2%) TD 17 (2.9%) INT 85.8 rating
The entire list can be found here:
Methinks that's sufficient to say he's, at minimum, the 3rd to the last guy you want going against you in a tight game.