Occasionally , the stars align, everyone picks the same games, the same winners, and those teams win. KD's Hall got hit twice last year by those monsoons. As I tallied this week's picks, I saw the same potential, and commented about it after explaining my picks this week:
We may have a monster number of 10-for-10s this week, or we may not have any. Just like last week, we have extremely heavy action on the same handful of games with almost everyone expressing the same preferences.
If these games fall the way that almost everyone is picking, then we will have awesome scores. If not…
GB-Cin / StL-Dal / Cle-Min / TB-NE / Ari-NO – these are back-to-back on KD’s page
Buf-NYJ / Ind-SF / Jac-Sea / Chi-Pit / Oak-Den – these are the final late/night games this week
Usually, one or two games like these pop up as "trap games" – games where we all jump in to play, and then get burned when the favorite loses to the underdog. I saw five of these as potential traps, and I stayed away from them. Was it a good decision? Ask me on Tuesday.
I also said here:
If the ten games that are played by the overwhelming majority all fall correctly, then there will be a record-setting number of 10-for-10s this week.
But, if Bengals, Dolphins, Jets, or Steelers can win at home, or if the Browns, Cardinals, Colts, Jaguars, or Raiders can grab a road win, then our scores will plummet. Those who avoided the "trap games" will be praised for their luck more than their skill at sniffing danger. [note - the five in bold did occur]
I fell for two of the traps - I joined the masses in picking the Vikings at home over the "trade and tank" Browns; and, I saw the 49ers collapse in Seattle as the same aberration that we saw at the end of last season (blowout in Seattle, followed by a trip to the
Super Har-Bowl), and not a sign of things to come. I did avoid the other four traps that ruined most of our scores this week.
We added three new players this week, giving us 259 for the season. However, we had more non-participants as well, and "only" had 199 play this week (that's still tied for the fourth highest total in 10-for-10 annals). All 199 made picks in the Cowboys game, and 194 picked the Cowboys (only five "
traitors" losers this week). However, that wasn't the highest number for a team this week.
There were two unanimous choices this week, and near-unanimous in participation. 198 players picked Seattle over Jacksonville (no one picked the Jags, and only one didn't include this game) and 197 picked Denver (again, no one picked Oakland, and only two didn't include this game).
Here's our participation table. It follows the same trends of the past two years - BIG first week, and a steady dropoff through the season as more players drop out than join each week. However, we're still ahead of last year's pace (222 in week #1 and down to 199 in week #2):
|Week||Played This Week||Missed This Week||Total|
I alluded to four traps. We actually picked (majority/consensus) nine winners and had seven losers. However, we had seven BIG winners and seven BIG losers (six with more than seventy-five players each). Our other two wins were small - both in participation and in plurality. Here's our weekly scorecard:
|Week #3 Results (Home in CAPS)|
|Win||Winners (we're great)||Lose|
|152||NEW ENGLAND||Tampa Bay||4|
|Win||Losers (we're bleep)||Lose|
|15||CAROLINA||New York Giants||60|
|10||NEW YORK JETS||Buffalo||47|
|Win||Pretty Even (we're indifferent)||Lose|
We still have one team that we just can't pick correctly. Miami is 3-0, but we have picked them to lose every game. We learned about Pittsburgh, as we were all over them in week #1 and piled on picking them to lose the past two weeks. Remember, in this table, the first letter for each team is how our 10-for-10 consensus picked them to do (W or L), and the second letter is how they actually did. So, WW or LL is good (we picked correctly), and WL or LW is bad (the result was not how we picked).
|Picks/Results for Each Team/Each Week|
|Team||Wk 1||Wk 2||Wk 3||Wk 4||Wk 5||Wk 6||Wk 7||Wk 8||Wk 9||Wk 10||Wk 11||Wk 12||Wk 13||Wk 14||Wk 15||Wk 16||Wk 17||W||L|
|New York Giants||LL||LL||WL||2||1|
|New York Jets||LW||LL||LW||1||2|
I also track our majority/consensus picks and compare our cumulative skills against the Front Page Writers. We were even the first week, lost a game to them in week #2, and fell behind another game this week - due to fortuitous tie-breaking as explained by One.Cool.Customer. They had three games that the eight FPWs split 4-4; all three tiebreakers went to teams that won. We beat them on Thursday night (they went for the Eagles, and we went for the Chiefs), but we lost two of those games that they won on their tiebreakers. Here's the first look at that season-long table:
|2013 10-for-10 Consensus vs. Front Page Writers|
|Week||10-for-10 Wins||10-for-10 Losses||Front Page Wins||Front Page Losses|
I referenced my picks at the beginning of this post, because I did relatively well. I entered the week two games behind I am Ironman!!!, and I am still there. However, I moved up as others fell back - both this week and in the overall. He and I missed the same two games (Min and SF), and were in a group of thirteen with the second best score of the week.
First, no one scored 10-for-10 this week, but congratulations to CowboysFan1994 - the only one to go 9-for-10 through this week's minefield. His first game (Hou-Bal) was his only miss, finishing with nine straight wins and either dodging the traps (Min, SF, etc.) or picking correctly (Car, Cin, and Mia were among his winners).
He is the only one to gain ground on our overall leader - I am Ironman!!! - who is setting a strong pace for us, putting up 8 this week after 9's in the first two weeks. The only one between us - one out of the lead this week - is lsttexas. All of this mates (T-2 last week) fell behind.
I am listing 145 "top scores" this week, just to get in everyone who went at least 6-for-10. There were forty-eight more who went 5-for-10, and the other seven brought up the rear at 4-for-10. And, to keep my table relatively balanced, I'm listing the top 144 overall scores. KD will have the complete scoreboard with all 259 scores in his next contest page.
|Top Scores This Week|
|Week #3||Score||Week #3||Score||Overall||Score||Overall||Score|
|CowboysFan1994||9||CowboyinExile||6||I am Ironman!!!||26||gabrielau23||21|
|I am Ironman!!!||8||DEL1SLE||6||skinny post||24||jockmeister||21|
|JDobermans||8||DoomsDay Dub||6||Useful_Idiot_||24||Kansas Cowboy||21|
|Johnny Cage||8||Farrah's Daddy||6||9_to_88 all day||23||kethry1313||21|
|neon greon||8||geof||6||BigBad Joe||23||letsgtld||21|
|bookiebuster||7||Jebediah Flibberbrush||6||Lajitas Lava||23||Oh Hai Doggy||21|
|Bvanzanman||7||Jessy S||6||lucke||23||Pnut Gallery||21|
|CDMac24||7||j-man||6||Realist Larry||23||Portland's Cowboy fan||21|
|EchoEcho||7||Lajitas Lava||6||BigHat in NewTexas||22||Trent Schoneweis||21|
|Gabby||7||LJ Longoria94||6||Canadian Cowboy_74||22||wittenfan||21|
|sirjason22||7||Psycho Star||6||Johnny Cage||22||impatient||20|
|Smax17177||7||Realist Larry||6||KD Drummond||22||j-man||20|
|Through Thick And Thin||7||slowmotion80||6||Mikhaili||22||meisternance||20|
|Witten mittens||7||Tallgrass Prairie||6||slowmotion80||22||MUTTS||20|
|9_to_88 all day||6||Tennessee_Jed||6||Tallgrass Prairie||22||Nord15||20|
|Aggie Man||6||TheDemolitionDan||6||Through Thick And Thin||22||Rajohnnn||20|
|Allan Uy||6||thepainster||6||Witten mittens||22||Rummob||20|
|bcomets||6||Vancity Cowboy||6||BoydNation||21||TARHEEL PAUL||20|
|BigHat in NewTexas||6||VictoryorDeath||6||cOUboy12||21||TK19||20|
|Cowboy Joe||6||ziggy 19||6||Dalai Luke||21||23 tied with||19|
|CowboyBaby||6||47 tied with||5||dsmith12||21||10 tied with||18|
Week #4 is where byes begin. Two teams have byes this week, and there are only fifteen games from which to choose. This past week, everyone did well at following the rules - all picked the Cowboys, only one picked the Thursday game after the fact (fixed before kickoff), everyone who made Thursday Game Only picks returned with his other nine. The only close call was with two who got their picks in Sunday right at the deadline. However, I liked their excuses (just had a baby; got home late from church), and counted their picks.
If you wish to make early picks here for week #4, please help me out and follow these guidelines:
- I am taking early picks here as a convenience to you until KD posts his contest page; after his page is up, please only make picks there, and stop making them here
- please bold your picks and delete games you are not including
- the easiest way to bold is to use asterisks before and after your selection (with no spaces):
- *Dallas* at SAN DIEGO will look like Dallas at SAN DIEGO; Dallas at *SAN DIEGO* will look like Dallas at SAN DIEGO
Week #4 (only fifteen games):
Thursday, September 26:
San Francisco at ST. LOUIS
Sunday, September 29:
Baltimore at BUFFALO
Cincinnati at CLEVELAND
Chicago at DETROIT
Seattle at HOUSTON
Indianapolis at JACKSONVILLE
New York Giants at KANSAS CITY
Pittsburgh vs MINNESOTA (in London)
Arizona at TAMPA BAY
New York Jets at TENNESSEE
Philadelphia at DENVER
Washington at OAKLAND
Dallas at SAN DIEGO (mandatory; must include)
New England at ATLANTA
Monday, September 30:
Miami at NEW ORLEANS