KD's 10-for-10 - 2013 Week #3 Update

Occasionally , the stars align, everyone picks the same games, the same winners, and those teams win. KD's Hall got hit twice last year by those monsoons. As I tallied this week's picks, I saw the same potential, and commented about it after explaining my picks this week:

We may have a monster number of 10-for-10s this week, or we may not have any. Just like last week, we have extremely heavy action on the same handful of games with almost everyone expressing the same preferences.

If these games fall the way that almost everyone is picking, then we will have awesome scores. If not…

GB-Cin / StL-Dal / Cle-Min / TB-NE / Ari-NO – these are back-to-back on KD’s page
Buf-NYJ / Ind-SF / Jac-Sea / Chi-Pit / Oak-Den – these are the final late/night games this week

Usually, one or two games like these pop up as "trap games" – games where we all jump in to play, and then get burned when the favorite loses to the underdog. I saw five of these as potential traps, and I stayed away from them. Was it a good decision? Ask me on Tuesday.

I also said here:

If the ten games that are played by the overwhelming majority all fall correctly, then there will be a record-setting number of 10-for-10s this week.

But, if Bengals, Dolphins, Jets, or Steelers can win at home, or if the Browns, Cardinals, Colts, Jaguars, or Raiders can grab a road win, then our scores will plummet. Those who avoided the "trap games" will be praised for their luck more than their skill at sniffing danger. [note - the five in bold did occur]

I fell for two of the traps - I joined the masses in picking the Vikings at home over the "trade and tank" Browns; and, I saw the 49ers collapse in Seattle as the same aberration that we saw at the end of last season (blowout in Seattle, followed by a trip to the Super Har-Bowl), and not a sign of things to come. I did avoid the other four traps that ruined most of our scores this week.

We added three new players this week, giving us 259 for the season. However, we had more non-participants as well, and "only" had 199 play this week (that's still tied for the fourth highest total in 10-for-10 annals). All 199 made picks in the Cowboys game, and 194 picked the Cowboys (only five "traitors" losers this week). However, that wasn't the highest number for a team this week.

There were two unanimous choices this week, and near-unanimous in participation. 198 players picked Seattle over Jacksonville (no one picked the Jags, and only one didn't include this game) and 197 picked Denver (again, no one picked Oakland, and only two didn't include this game).

Here's our participation table. It follows the same trends of the past two years - BIG first week, and a steady dropoff through the season as more players drop out than join each week. However, we're still ahead of last year's pace (222 in week #1 and down to 199 in week #2):

Week Played This Week Missed This Week Total
1 242 0 242
2 207 49 256
3 199 60 259

I alluded to four traps. We actually picked (majority/consensus) nine winners and had seven losers. However, we had seven BIG winners and seven BIG losers (six with more than seventy-five players each). Our other two wins were small - both in participation and in plurality. Here's our weekly scorecard:

Week #3 Results (Home in CAPS)
Win Winners (we're great) Lose
198 SEATTLE Jacksonville 0
197 DENVER Oakland 0
194 DALLAS St. Louis 5
163 NEW ORLEANS Arizona 7
152 NEW ENGLAND Tampa Bay 4
110 Chicago PITTSBURGH 6
61 Detroit WASHINGTON 14
Win Losers (we're bleep) Lose
2 Cleveland MINNESOTA 160
4 Indianapolis SAN FRANCISCO 158
9 CINCINNATI Green Bay 109
15 MIAMI Atlanta 91
8 BALTIMORE Houston 75
15 CAROLINA New York Giants 60
10 NEW YORK JETS Buffalo 47
Win Pretty Even (we're indifferent) Lose
39 TENNESSEE San Diego 30
27 Kansas City PHILADELPHIA 20

We still have one team that we just can't pick correctly. Miami is 3-0, but we have picked them to lose every game. We learned about Pittsburgh, as we were all over them in week #1 and piled on picking them to lose the past two weeks. Remember, in this table, the first letter for each team is how our 10-for-10 consensus picked them to do (W or L), and the second letter is how they actually did. So, WW or LL is good (we picked correctly), and WL or LW is bad (the result was not how we picked).

Picks/Results for Each Team/Each Week
Team Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4 Wk 5 Wk 6 Wk 7 Wk 8 Wk 9 Wk 10 Wk 11 Wk 12 Wk 13 Wk 14 Wk 15 Wk 16 Wk 17 W L
Denver WW WW WW 3 0
Jacksonville LL LL LL 3 0
New England WW WW WW 3 0
New Orleans WW WW WW 3 0
Oakland LL WW LL 3 0
St Louis WW LL LL 3 0
Arizona LL LW LL 2 1
Atlanta LL WW WL 2 1
Baltimore LL WW LW 2 1
Buffalo LL WW WL 2 1
Carolina LL LL LW 2 1
Chicago LW WW WW 2 1
Dallas WW WL WW 2 1
Detroit WW WL WW 2 1
Green Bay LL WW WL 2 1
Houston WW WW WL 2 1
Kansas City WW LW WW 2 1
Minnesota LL LL WL 2 1
New York Giants LL LL WL 2 1
Pittsburgh WL LL LL 2 1
San Diego LL LW LL 2 1
Seattle WW LW WW 2 1
Tampa Bay WL LL LL 2 1
Tennessee LW LL WW 2 1
Washington WL LL LL 2 1
Cincinnati WL WW LW 1 2
Cleveland WL LL LW 1 2
Indianapolis WW WL LW 1 2
New York Jets LW LL LW 1 2
Philadelphia LW WL LL 1 2
San Francisco WW WL WL 1 2
Miami LW LW LW 0 3
Total 62 34

I also track our majority/consensus picks and compare our cumulative skills against the Front Page Writers. We were even the first week, lost a game to them in week #2, and fell behind another game this week - due to fortuitous tie-breaking as explained by One.Cool.Customer. They had three games that the eight FPWs split 4-4; all three tiebreakers went to teams that won. We beat them on Thursday night (they went for the Eagles, and we went for the Chiefs), but we lost two of those games that they won on their tiebreakers. Here's the first look at that season-long table:

2013 10-for-10 Consensus vs. Front Page Writers
Week 10-for-10 Wins 10-for-10 Losses Front Page Wins Front Page Losses
1 11 5 11 5
2 11 5 12 4
3 9 7 10 6
Total 31 17 33 15

I referenced my picks at the beginning of this post, because I did relatively well. I entered the week two games behind I am Ironman!!!, and I am still there. However, I moved up as others fell back - both this week and in the overall. He and I missed the same two games (Min and SF), and were in a group of thirteen with the second best score of the week.

First, no one scored 10-for-10 this week, but congratulations to CowboysFan1994 - the only one to go 9-for-10 through this week's minefield. His first game (Hou-Bal) was his only miss, finishing with nine straight wins and either dodging the traps (Min, SF, etc.) or picking correctly (Car, Cin, and Mia were among his winners).

He is the only one to gain ground on our overall leader - I am Ironman!!! - who is setting a strong pace for us, putting up 8 this week after 9's in the first two weeks. The only one between us - one out of the lead this week - is lsttexas. All of this mates (T-2 last week) fell behind.

I am listing 145 "top scores" this week, just to get in everyone who went at least 6-for-10. There were forty-eight more who went 5-for-10, and the other seven brought up the rear at 4-for-10. And, to keep my table relatively balanced, I'm listing the top 144 overall scores. KD will have the complete scoreboard with all 259 scores in his next contest page.

Top Scores This Week
Week #3 Score Week #3 Score Overall Score Overall Score
CowboysFan1994 9 CowboyinExile 6 I am Ironman!!! 26 gabrielau23 21
BigBad Joe 8 CowboysBarry 6 lsttexas 25 geof 21
cwby4lf 8 D_Carter 6 hookerhome 24 gershwin 21
HLCJ69 8 damnarab2 6 rhodri2112 24 Hookem Up 21
hookerhome 8 DCB* 6 Seatown7 24 IRONRAVEN 21
I am Ironman!!! 8 DEL1SLE 6 skinny post 24 jockmeister 21
JDobermans 8 DoomsDay Dub 6 Useful_Idiot_ 24 Kansas Cowboy 21
Johnny Cage 8 Farrah's Daddy 6 9_to_88 all day 23 kethry1313 21
ketom1220 8 FloridaBoys 6 Aggie Man 23 ketom1220 21
lsttexas 8 gabrielau23 6 Baloo. 23 Kire_V 21
neon greon 8 geof 6 BigBad Joe 23 letsgtld 21
Rex Pfister 8 gershwin 6 CDMac24 23 mik888 21
rhodri2112 8 Hobbes42 6 cowboy1966 23 Mikellie 21
Seatown7 8 Hookem Up 6 cowdog 23 MSM33 21
Antonio S 7 Howleyesque 6 cwby4lf 23 NCHeelsBoysFan 21
Babygirl71 7 ibleedcowboyblue 6 DCB* 23 neon greon 21
bcg08 7 jazzbo251 6 JDobermans 23 NorthStar99 21
bookiebuster 7 Jebediah Flibberbrush 6 Lajitas Lava 23 Oh Hai Doggy 21
Bvanzanman 7 Jessy S 6 lucke 23 Pnut Gallery 21
CDMac24 7 j-man 6 Realist Larry 23 Portland's Cowboy fan 21
connor.cmr 7 jockmeister 6 Rex Pfister 23 revellyre 21
cOUboy12 7 Joe Ferraiola 6 spur_for_life 23 scotscowboyfan 21
cowboy1966 7 jstaubach 6 swanhooch 23 sirjason22 21
cowboyswin 7 jtiddahr 6 Travlr 23 Souna21 21
cowdog 7 k@s! 6 Vector_41 23 suddendeath88 21
cproctor6 7 Kegbearer 6 Wreck'emCowboys 23 Tennessee_Jed 21
DerUbermensch 7 kethry1313 6 Allan Uy 22 21
dsmith12 7 Kire_V 6 beastygaming 22 thepainster 21
EchoEcho 7 Lajitas Lava 6 BigHat in NewTexas 22 Trent Schoneweis 21
Enja 7 letsgtld 6 bookiebuster 22 wildtigger2 21
Gabby 7 LJ Longoria94 6 Canadian Cowboy_74 22 wittenfan 21
HonorTheStar 7 LoboTX 6 CarloRue 22 Babygirl71 20
impatient 7 Max2 6 ChrisMan 22 bcg08 20
jamesvb 7 meisternance 6 connor.cmr 22 bcomets 20
KD Drummond 7 Mikellie 6 CowboyBaby 22 behind.enemylines 20
Longdistance fan 7 mikemc68 6 CowboysBarry 22 boys.camncrew 20
lucke 7 MSM33 6 EchoEcho 22 Bvanzanman 20
makemyday 7 MUTTS 6 Enja 22 damnarab2 20
mehrans9 7 NCHeelsBoysFan 6 ginge159 22 DoomsDay Dub 20
Mikhaili 7 NerdVernacular 6 HLCJ69 22 Farrah's Daddy 20
neithan20000 7 nicomachus 6 HonorTheStar 22 Gabby 20
nikeorlipstick 7 Nord15 6 Howleyesque 22 Hobbes42 20
Panzer84 7 NorthStar99 6 jamesvb 22 ibleedcowboyblue 20
PhiAlphaHalos 7 Pasipple 6 Jebediah Flibberbrush 22 illcowboy 20
sirjason22 7 Psycho Star 6 Johnny Cage 22 impatient 20
skinny post 7 Rajohnnn 6 jstaubach 22 jakezze01 20
Smax17177 7 Realist Larry 6 KD Drummond 22 j-man 20
starbury_to_s-jaxci2000 7 Rome One 6 LoboTX 22 jtiddahr 20
Static 7 Rummob 6 Max2 22 Junkyard Dog 20
swanhooch 7 Sandmann 6 mehrans9 22 Kegbearer 20 7 Sean N 6 mikemc68 22 mdlusk 20
Through Thick And Thin 7 slowmotion80 6 Mikhaili 22 meisternance 20
Timmy G 7 Specific 6 nicomachus 22 melman88 20
TK19 7 spur_for_life 6 One.Cool.Customer 22 MosesArt 20
Useful_Idiot_ 7 Switters023 6 Panzer84 22 mushpuppy 20
Witten mittens 7 Tallgrass Prairie 6 slowmotion80 22 MUTTS 20
1Bullseye 6 TARHEEL PAUL 6 Specific 22 nikeorlipstick 20
9_to_88 all day 6 Tennessee_Jed 6 Tallgrass Prairie 22 Nord15 20
Aggie Man 6 TheDemolitionDan 6 Through Thick And Thin 22 Rajohnnn 20
Allan Uy 6 thepainster 6 Witten mittens 22 Rummob 20
American Fan 6 Travlr 6 1Bullseye 21 Smax17177 20
AnderJ86 6 tsylvest 6 Antonio S 21 StarloverinWNC 20
Baloo. 6 TwoBitWhackJob 6 BishopWest 21 Static 20
bcomets 6 Vancity Cowboy 6 BoydNation 21 TARHEEL PAUL 20
beastygaming 6 Vector_41 6 BoyfromOz 21 TheDemolitionDan 20
BigHat in NewTexas 6 VictoryorDeath 6 cOUboy12 21 TK19 20
BishopWest 6 westmodelmarket 6 Cowboy Joe 21 traceabides 20
camrin55 6 wildtigger2 6 CowboyinExile 21 tsylvest 20
Canadian Cowboy_74 6 wittenfan 6 cowboyswin 21 VictoryorDeath 20
CarloRue 6 Wreck'emCowboys 6 cproctor6 21 zigg6411 20
ChrisMan 6 YumaCactus 6 D_Carter 21 ziggy 19 20
Cowboy Joe 6 ziggy 19 6 Dalai Luke 21 23 tied with 19
CowboyBaby 6 47 tied with 5 dsmith12 21 10 tied with 18

Week #4 is where byes begin. Two teams have byes this week, and there are only fifteen games from which to choose. This past week, everyone did well at following the rules - all picked the Cowboys, only one picked the Thursday game after the fact (fixed before kickoff), everyone who made Thursday Game Only picks returned with his other nine. The only close call was with two who got their picks in Sunday right at the deadline. However, I liked their excuses (just had a baby; got home late from church), and counted their picks.

If you wish to make early picks here for week #4, please help me out and follow these guidelines:

  • I am taking early picks here as a convenience to you until KD posts his contest page; after his page is up, please only make picks there, and stop making them here
  • please bold your picks and delete games you are not including
  • the easiest way to bold is to use asterisks before and after your selection (with no spaces):
  • *Dallas* at SAN DIEGO will look like Dallas at SAN DIEGO; Dallas at *SAN DIEGO* will look like Dallas at SAN DIEGO

Week #4 (only fifteen games):

Thursday, September 26:

San Francisco at ST. LOUIS

Sunday, September 29:

Baltimore at BUFFALO

Cincinnati at CLEVELAND

Chicago at DETROIT

Seattle at HOUSTON

Indianapolis at JACKSONVILLE

New York Giants at KANSAS CITY

Pittsburgh vs MINNESOTA (in London)

Arizona at TAMPA BAY

New York Jets at TENNESSEE

Philadelphia at DENVER

Washington at OAKLAND

Dallas at SAN DIEGO (mandatory; must include)

New England at ATLANTA

Monday, September 30:


Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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